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Tuesday with Gary Savage

Big Al
September 23, 2014

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Discussion
22 Comments
    LGC
    Sep 23, 2014 23:00 AM

    The question I have is. How can Gary or anybody who are technitions think that technical evaluations of the market have any baring or meaning in the scheme of things with all markets manipulated and controlled by the banksters? Their analysis is completely skewed by manipulation and control

      Sep 23, 2014 23:24 AM

      Well, at least Gary realizes there is manipulation. He is way ahead of most technicians.

    Sep 23, 2014 23:14 AM

    One does have to always take into account potential manipulation.

    Sep 23, 2014 23:15 AM

    Posed this question to Doc and he commented in the Daily Editorial with him.

    Sep 23, 2014 23:16 AM

    Thanks for the tip Cory. I will check BNN as I had not heard any recent news on Canadian banks and mortgage debt vis a vis the governments intentions. I agree more of the risk should be shouldered by the banks themselves however that is also a double edged sword. Consumers should know that if a Canadian bank does runs into trouble as a result of its housing portfolio (the majority of most CDN banks holdings) that bail-ins could follow as the government is no longer willing to rescue any of the banks at the public expense. It will pay to know which are the most leveraged and have the lowest ratios in the event of an economic downturn. In general though, like most Canadians we have confidence in the Canadian banking sector so my remarks are purely hypothetical.

    Sep 23, 2014 23:31 AM

    This is a complete 180 from Gary’s prediction only a few weeks ago about a CRB strong rally as money flowed out of conventional markets and into commodities.

    http://smartmoneytracker.blogspot.ca/2014/07/charts-of-day.html


    The last two times the Fed tried to end their QE programs the market tanked. Did they really think this time would be any different? The process has been slower as they didn’t go cold turkey this time like the last two, but the end result will almost certainly be the same. The unpleasant realization that this bloated market simply can’t stand on it’s own without constant infusions of liquidity.

    Turing off the liquidity this late in the cycle will probably kill the bull, and if Yellen panics and tries to restart QE it’s likely to flow into the commodity markets instead of stocks, and that will kill the economy. ”

    I am not criticizing, just would like to know what has happened to change your outlook. Always interested in your opinion and respect that your outlook can change based on what the market tells you.

      Sep 23, 2014 23:18 AM

      Duke,

      My impression is that Gary moves very quickly based on absolute current conditions. I don’t think that is a bad thing.

        Sep 23, 2014 23:09 PM

        No question about it. This is a learning experience. We take each day as it comes and reformulate to adapt the the changes in the environment. Adapt or perish is the name of the game. I give Gary credit for rolling with the punches.

      Sep 23, 2014 23:44 PM

      The stock market has to top before the inflation flows into the commodity markets. As of today I don’t think stocks are ready to top yet.

    CFS
    Sep 23, 2014 23:38 AM

    We have a stock bubble?

    Based on what criteria?

    It is a mistake to judge based on a rise over 5 years, unless you prove the starting point was not unreasonably low.
    To call it a “bubble” implies that it will drop very significantly in the future. While that mat happen, I do not believe the “bubble” description is proven appropriate, because while the market is high, I do not consider it unreasonably high.

      Sep 23, 2014 23:56 AM

      CFS, you are right. I think people should qualify what they mean by “bubble” like Peter Schiff has done. He said many, many, many times that bubble is caused by money printing and it will not bust until FED stops printing. So stock goes up. However, most people still interpret as that he means stock is going to crash and attack him. It is frustrating. I hope there is is a word to describe non-stoppong bubbles. Most people will not listen if they do not agree with you and attack you anyway.

      Sep 23, 2014 23:19 AM

      Given the amount of “support on the demand side” that the market is getting you make a good point CFS. The problem, as I see it is that the demand side is corrupted.

        Sep 23, 2014 23:41 PM

        Hi AL…I have to agree with you …Re. the demand side is corrupted !!!
        BTW….say hello to your beautiful wife , from me….X

          Sep 23, 2014 23:35 PM

          Of course, and thank you Mr. Irish!

      Sep 23, 2014 23:56 AM

      I have always been careful not to throw the word “bubble” around and have not considered the market to be a bubble. By some legitimate measures, it might be in a bubble. For instance, according to deMeadville’s Mark Mead Baille, the S&P’s “live” PE ratio is 36.7. Whether that makes the market a bubble or not, I know that I want nothing to do with it on the long side. The current Shiller PE for the S&P is 26.3 —also not a level I want to buy.

        Sep 23, 2014 23:10 PM

        I feel the general market will go up but I want to see a correction first.

    Sep 23, 2014 23:14 AM

    Gary, why bother calling a lower low next summer.

    Sep 23, 2014 23:45 PM

    I think gary long term prediction on gold has been bad, so I going to do opposite , gold above 1500 by next summer want to bet Gary

      Sep 23, 2014 23:54 PM

      Cat,
      Sure I’ll bet. Silver is already forecasting that gold is going to break 1179 in the future.

      How can the SMT metal portfolio be up significantly for the year if my “forecasting” is bad? If you did the opposite of what I did then you would have lost a significant amount of money…

      I’ve called the last three intermediate tops almost perfectly. I caught the exact bottom in June of 2013 and the exact bottom in June of this year. I got very close in Dec. getting in in early Jan.

      I’m really not sure how one could have done any better over the last year and a half.

      Maybe you are more interested in day trading? Granted that’s not my expertise. If you want perfect day trades Rick is your man. He’s much better at the short term stuff than I am.

        Sep 24, 2014 24:00 AM

        I’d be willing to bet that Gary wins this one also….easily.
        Let me know if your interested catman.

        ….”Roll up roll up”….LOL

    Sep 23, 2014 23:15 PM

    If I had to choose between the two options: lower low vs. 1500. I go with 1500 without much additional thought. We may hit a lower low but I expect if it comes it will be sooner rather than later.

    Sep 25, 2014 25:15 AM

    Gold and silver can’t bottom until the Venture is wiped clean of a quarter of the exploration stocks. Exploration stocks are current version of 1990s internet stocks. No cash flow just a hope and dream