BB, all I can say is that we are a lot closer to a buying opportunity now than we have been in a long time. Exactly where the bottom will be found cannot be known with certainty but you already know my downside estimate is 968 on gold. Silver today is a 67% discount off the peaks but it is still almost double the price of ten years back. I cannot advise buying nor can I suggest waiting longer. I guess it is a very personal decision now. Maybe it is a crap-shoot given the deflationary trend that is in place. In my own case I will NOT buy until I see that the overwhelming negative sentiments have turned up again nor will I buy until the current long term downtrend has exhausted itself.

Your right about buying being a specific thing for everyone.
As your aware I like Turks approach, a % of income every month.
I do think that some should be owned, I also think you can get to a point when it can be said, “I have enough” at least with silver. Gold to me is a % monthly to preserve purchaseing power.
What I was interested in your thinking about is the planned movment of gold to China and once they have what they need the price being allowed to rise.

I think that is whats happening, the same thing was done right after the 2nd war with gold moved to Europe.

No question that a major shift is underway. I have many thoughts on the topic but tonight I am just worn out since it is already bedtime here and my day is done. See you tomorrow! There is always time for more discussion later.

Bird…Start buying G&S now…..& short the $us in Feb next year.

OK….but what is happening in February?

Valentine’s Day Bird. …LOL.

Of course. But you know…I LOVE dollars. So not going short, Tony. Not a hope is hell for quite a long while.

I’m sorry to be a skeptic but I listened to what Rickards and some others had to say over the last 3 years, reckooning that these kind of people were ‘in the know’ andthat Rickards is a sharp as a razor’s edge smart kind of guy – but maybe it kept me in this market when I should have got out.

That is a really interesting comment Dave. A great many people stayed in the market based on the confidence they had in the credibility and endorsements of a small group of respected speakers and gold promoters.

Eric Sprott is another who once had a huge following and there is no question he is brilliant in business and in his understanding of the risks that were present. I guess there are just forces out there that are more powerful and would not allow his version of gold strength to materialize because basically he was saying the Fed would lose control and that did not go over very well with those in positions of power and influence.

You are also correct that Rickards was early and wrong on gold’s prices so it does tend to throw some cold water on the rest of his arguments. At least publicly. Which is not to say he is wrong but rather that it was not the message we needed or wanted to hear. But he is another guy who is brilliant, possibly even a genius, and his theory was also becoming a threat to the stability of the dollar and the Western political influence in the world due to its being so convincing an argument.

So being correct in principle does not always make you right in fact. To me it was obvious that gold prices would have to be suppressed if the voices of gloom were to be silenced. Schiff was another who was doing enough damage single handedly prior to 2011’s gold price collapse that his followers with their shrill cries of imminent collapse were almost in a position to unwind all the best efforts being undertaken to stabilize the economy.

Basically they were winning the war of words and their message was validated by golds incessant rise. The solution therefore was to puncture a hole in the gold boat so deep that recovery would take years to materialize. In the process the campaign against Federal Reserve policies and the efforts of the Western Central Banks would be discredited so deeply that confidence might once again be restored in policy makers and amongst the major market participants.

This was clearly seen to be beneficial if not absolutely essential even at the risk that there would be large scale transfers of physical precious metals to Asia. The threats posed to the global financial system were simply too great a danger to be left to chance. So sacrifices were made however it is my view that Chinese acquisitions of gold were undertaken in an orderly and cooperative manner as they too faced exaggerated dangers from instability in the system.

So about your skepticism Dave….unfortunately you had to learn the hard way along with tens of thousands of other ardent gold bugs who were proving step by step that our system really was in very deep trouble.

I still believe that gold prices need to go down and stay down for some lengthy period of time just as interest rates will be suppressed at low levels for years. These two idea go hand in hand as it is critically important that the dollar and the US economy not be destabilized at this juncture.

I guess you could say that gold investors were collateral damage in a bigger war to rescue the global economy. What a relief that most off them were finally shut up as prices ratcheted down relentlessly for the past few years and influence in policy making was shifted away from the gold rebels and back to official levels where saner heads prevail.

And that is why gold will not gain traction unless and until we face another credit crisis. Sovereign defaults loom though and strategic investors will no doubt be quietly accumulating gold in anticipation of that time. I do however expect metals prices will be poor for most of 2015 and that momentum in the precious metals market will continue to be weak and gain little strength during the coming year. You will see in this coming year that is going to be consistent with the media message and the effect will be to subdue investor sentiments toward this market for a considerable period of time. The future is unknown of course. Between now and then gold is a non starter where policy is concerned. It is truly the thorn in the side of the establishment and its efforts to promote renewed economic growth.

Well, I can say I should have sold all my silver at $45, got out and rebought I guess.
But I own it and Im not selling it.(silver) but I don’t need to.
I just buy gold now, 5-10% a month.
Of investable income, that’s it, really easy for me. Its just not so much it matters really.

I can see being upset if a person sold their house and bought PMs.
I aked Sinclair about that, he kinda laughed and said “no way” just a percentage, not so much it causes sweating”

I feel bad for those guys who went all in. It is too bad really and there were a lot of them who bought the dire gloom story and never gave any serious consideration for diversification. I have known a few personally. Flipped right out and put it all on red which proved to be an unmitigated disaster as prices fell. The extreme anger and frustration some of them expressed as prices fell was shocking. I figured they deserved the losses though. I hated the sh*t they kept spouting day in and day out. It was beyond depressing.