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Today’s moves could be a big day for the markets

September 25, 2014

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60 Comments

    THE big move is ERIC HOLDER is leaving …

      SFC
      Sep 25, 2014 25:21 AM

      For prison, I hope.

      Sep 25, 2014 25:16 AM

      But will B.O. replace Holder with Chelsea Clinton, Caroline Kennedy, Al Sharpton, Michelle, or a muslim?

    Sep 25, 2014 25:14 AM

    The economy has nothing to do with the stock market? WTF.

      Sep 25, 2014 25:16 AM

      Where have you been for the last 5 years? The economy has been poor the whole time yet the S & has rallied 200%.

        Sep 25, 2014 25:18 AM

        Agreed Gary

        Sep 25, 2014 25:23 AM

        I think a more accurate statement would be the US economy does not drive the stock market all of the time or the US economy is not the only thing that can drive the stock market. But to say the economy has nothing to do with the stock market is wrong. Particularly when you are using the last five years as your only point of reference.

          Sep 25, 2014 25:46 AM

          Well since I can’t go back in time and trade pre 2009 the only thing that matters to me are the current market relationships.

            Sep 25, 2014 25:56 AM

            That helps explain many of your predictions in the intermediate and long term. I don’t doubt you make money in the stock market, primarily, probably solely, on short term trading, but your intermediate to long term outlook is about as accurate as my two year old’s slap shot and is frustrating to listen to because it changes as often as my underwear. Note: I change my underwear daily but cycle through the same pair on a regular basis.

            Sep 25, 2014 25:29 AM

            Pete,
            Actually the metal portfolio is outperforming all the other portfolios, and that’s in a bear market, and only trading from the long side.

            Sep 25, 2014 25:35 AM

            My long term outlook on stocks has been the same for almost two years. I said back in Dec. 2012 that stocks were heading into the euphoria phase of the bull and they are still in it.

            Gold and commodities have been tougher. Originally last year I thought gold would go to 1050. It’s taken a lot longer than I thought it would and we’ve had some pretty convincing rallies that looked like at the time that maybe gold was ready to break free of the manipulation holding it down, but as of today it still looks like 1050 before 1500.

            Yes I may have to change my mind if gold does something to convince me it’s not going to 1050, but as of right now that seems like the path of least resistance for the next 6-8 months. There will be another convincing counter trend rally along the way though.

            Sep 25, 2014 25:06 AM

            Man, that is totally cool with me when I hear you say you are willing to change your mind on an idea that maybe won’t work. It’s the guys who back themselves into a corner and are too proud to roll with new information that drive me nuts. You know those shells that stick to a rock on the seashore? Like barnacles. And they never move no matter what happens to their little world………those creatures really remind me of gold-bugs.

        Sep 25, 2014 25:28 AM

        I agree with you, Gary.

      BDC
      Sep 25, 2014 25:09 AM

      Once securities are listed and issued,
      they become chip stacks in the casino.

    CFS
    Sep 25, 2014 25:15 AM

    Gold is rallying, but will have a problem from silver, Al, Zn, Cu, Pb, all down

    bb
    Sep 25, 2014 25:16 AM

    People are realising whats happening?
    I figure Gary is right about that has nothing to do with stocks.
    In any case, I doubt very much the American public realises anything, at least not in any numbers large enough to make any kind of difference to the people running things.

    Sep 25, 2014 25:17 AM

    stock market is a liquidity machine – very simplistic view. Stock market provides liquidity but it “is” many things.

    SFC
    Sep 25, 2014 25:22 AM

    I dunno…this McHugh guy sees a crash coming soon…time to bail out…whaddya think?

    http://jaytaylormedia.com/media/taylor20140923-1.mp3

      Sep 25, 2014 25:27 AM

      I have been out of US stocks since February/march. I would like to see a major correction before getting back in

      Sep 25, 2014 25:29 AM

      He has been saying that for five years.

        bb
        Sep 25, 2014 25:50 AM

        Bird, you asked for a list?
        Im sure you’ve seen these before but here it is.
        g,yri,aem,eld,ngd,bto,p,kdx

          Sep 25, 2014 25:59 AM

          Hey thanks! I almost forgot I had asked.

      CFS
      Sep 25, 2014 25:30 AM

      It would not surprise me if we had a greater than 10% correction next cycle. However, leading economic indicators are still not pointing to a crash, so, despite the mass behavior od crowds, I find it hard to believe a crash imminent.

        CFS
        Sep 25, 2014 25:05 AM

        Bob also talks about Alibaba, very interesting……and something I did not know about the Cayman Island’s holding company.

        Sep 25, 2014 25:25 AM

        First I heard of it too. How come it was not discussed more publicly before the selling got underway? About Roberts indicators….he has issued quite a number of urgent warnings of an imminent crash over the past few years. Zero crashes happened. I used to follow him closely but became disenchanted with the results after his Hindenburg Omens and divergences and various indicators failed repeatedly to result in tradeable information on such major moves. I highly doubt this year will be any different.

          CFS
          Sep 25, 2014 25:45 AM

          The Hindenburg omen has about a 25% success at prediction of a crash I believe. On the other hand, I seem to recall someone saying that a Hindenburg omen always happens before a crash. i.e. a necessary but not sufficient condition.

          bb
          Sep 25, 2014 25:45 AM

          What? You guys don’t watch “the daily show”? john stewert.
          Got a lot of laughs that people were not actually buying alibaba but a holding company in the caymans.
          The conclusion was that the Chinese have finally outdone the americans, with, todays “capitilism”

            Sep 25, 2014 25:10 AM

            I don’t get Jon Stewart in Africa. So many people are connected to TV’s here though it is just a matter of time before someone brings a satellite and the five hundred channel universe. They would totally FREAK OUT if they saw the Playboy Channel though!

            bb
            Sep 25, 2014 25:53 PM

            I just thought it was funny getting the info from the daily show, all the investment sites didn’t seem to have a clue about it, at least not from what I saw and read.

            Satilite might be an idea for you Bird, you could sell the TVs too.

            Come on down to “Big bad birds bargin bin” best price in town.

            Sep 25, 2014 25:21 PM

            Seriously though…there is no TV porn over here. I don’t think that business is a healthy idea for a foreigner to engage in. They are already convinced we Westerners are corrupting them without me trying to sell TV’s and endless late night channels! These cultures are quite conservative and religious bb. It is nothing like back home. Most of the sh*t you guys watch on the tube back home would be banned over here in a heartbeat.

            CFS
            Sep 26, 2014 26:34 AM

            I don’t watch TV, period…..waste of time.

            Sep 26, 2014 26:07 AM

            Neither do I CFS. Totally agree with you. It is pollution for the brain. I kept it out of my house for many years but after I remarried my resolve was broken. My wife loves TV drama. Guess there is no escape for me anymore. I will say though that since the TV arrived I have become a big fan of Bloomberg business news. It is my answer to what is happening in the world during the frequent power outages and downed internet that we chronically suffer over here.

    I am going along with BIG AL……………

    CFS
    Sep 25, 2014 25:26 AM

    The Fraser Institute summarized basic economic theory into 10 basic principles which stemmed from Adam Smith:

    http://oldfraser.lexi.net/publications/books/econ_prosp/part1.html

    Sep 25, 2014 25:42 AM

    The elephant in the room is the ending of QE in October (notice how HYG is diverging from the markets over the last couple of months). Every single time it has happened in the past the market has tanked until they announced the next round of QE. Why should this time be any different???

      CFS
      Sep 26, 2014 26:37 AM

      Why is HYG so divergent from TLT?

    CFS
    Sep 25, 2014 25:30 AM
    Sep 25, 2014 25:31 AM

    The market what market, the market isn’t listening to anyone or anything. As for the future it’s like The Baby Boomers taking from their kids generation. Next week it will be pushing into new high ground, four more years of prosperity, I think I will get out my trick cycle. This is entertainment as good as anything.

    CFS
    Sep 25, 2014 25:51 AM

    UK trying to tighten up on manipulation:

    http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-09-25/u-k-seeks-to-criminalize-manipulation-of-7-benchmarks.html

    Good Luck on that. Guess they don’t realize that fighting the US Fed really does not succeed often.

      Sep 25, 2014 25:58 AM

      Maybe just a show

    CFS
    Sep 25, 2014 25:11 AM

    Anyone hear anything about Romios Gold or Bravada; a couple of tiny juniors I hold that just jumped like crazy today on no news?

      Sep 25, 2014 25:19 AM

      The Dow is taking it on the nose today…along with the rest of the equities. Silver just bounced off 17.40 and who the heck knows but just maybe a change is finally in the air. Even GDX is looking like it could make a recovery. It had better do it quick though.

      Sep 25, 2014 25:45 PM

      CFS, maybe you need to have your eyes checked.

    CFS
    Sep 25, 2014 25:17 AM

    Never mind….Some idiots put in bids on those stocks without using limits, is my guess.
    I saw an over 40% jump and then back down to normal prices!

    Sep 25, 2014 25:20 AM

    Eric Sprott and Rick Rule on Jay Taylors Turning Hard Times into Good Times. -Voice America
    http://cdn.voiceamerica.com/business/010644/taylor092314.mp3

      sfc
      Sep 25, 2014 25:38 PM

      When I grow up I wanna be Eric Sprot or Al Korelin! 🙂

    Sep 25, 2014 25:42 AM

    Im expecting $930-975 gold in the next 4 months.

      Sep 26, 2014 26:36 AM

      An optimist!

    Sep 25, 2014 25:39 PM

    Anyone keeping an eye on sugar? Is it bottoming?

    LON:SUGA

    Sep 25, 2014 25:07 PM

    A rough day today and I could not work at all. Dumped my Apple at a loss as it could not hold the 50 day and took profits on others like Loco. Kept only my IPO companies as they are strong. Added 1000 shares on the IPO: CNNX today and gained about 7%. The crooked banks again stole $8.50 per share with a higher open from the ipo price. Bought back some Cyberark shares I sold yesterday.

    Sep 25, 2014 25:20 PM

    There is company, Rewalk -ipo-(Israeli company) produces a product that lets people in wheelchairs stand up and walk. An expensive gadget ($100k) that I think has a very big market potential.

    Sep 25, 2014 25:36 PM

    Stocks don’t reflect the overall economy but rather the performance of the individual companies. If you’re wondering why the S&P is up over 200% since 2009 you should consider that S&P revenues and earnings are up 150% and 160% respectively over that period. Operating profit margins also hit peak business cycle highs of over 10% in the first quarter up from just under 3% in 2009. These are higher then the peak margins of the 2006 and 2007 business cycle peak which never exceeded 10%. You can argue about the quality of earnings since they were achieved through dramatic cost cutting, suppressed interest expenses, inflationary topline tailwinds and currency effects but you can’t argue that there isn’t some fundamental basis for the rally over the last 5 yrs.

      Sep 25, 2014 25:33 PM

      Don’t forget companies borrowing at virtually 0% to buy back shares. That’s a big part of earnings growth.

        CFS
        Sep 25, 2014 25:00 PM

        Yep, Gary, and it also helps the general indices.

        Sep 26, 2014 26:04 AM

        Taking on additional debt is only positive for earnings if the company is using the proceeds to retire existing debt that have higher rates. If they are issuing debt to buy back shares that is actually a negative drag to earnings due to the additional interest expense. It is however positive for stock prices in that it decreases the denominator in the Earnings per share calculation.

      Sep 26, 2014 26:44 AM

      I remain convinced that today’s surprising drops in commodity prices will soon enough feed through to better profits. That is the real silver lining for the stock market for 2015 so I strongly doubt any major sell offs are impending. Correction perhaps but there is enough good news coming that it is worth holding on. Actually there really is not any other consideration for stocks as important as the declines in input costs and I believe that is going to be the story for next year.