Things are not looking good out there
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Wasn’t bad if you were short Al.
Maybe time to short more if we don’t get the bounce next week?
Maybe short now to catch a drop next week?
I kinda wish I had shorted yesterday.
Good thinking I think Cory.
Is it too late to short now?
Well, Lawrence, Docs saying “look out below” if we don’t finish higher next week.
cfs is saying expect more of the same, bird and jj will argue to be short I bet.
The thing I find worrisome about hgd is the amount of investment required to make anything which is why I have always tried to buy “dips” in shares, but maybe if we break below 1180 it might be worth it.
I have no idea, all a guess to me really.
As we discussed yesterday, 1180 may break. It worth a try but cover if the market go against you. I don’t like short term trading and I need to preserve the cash to pick up more physical ETF. I have failed in every try to catch momentum so I don’t do it anymore.
Also I don’t see the difference between short and sell your existing holding now unless you don’t hold any.
I sold my shares awhile back, most anyway. I make some shares if I buy again now. That’s how Ive always played it. But the better move would have been to short, maybe Im learning something, hope so Im really not too bright.
Manipulation, folks.
Expect more of the same until after November 4th.
YES CAN BYE COOL IS THE WAY WE CAN SEE 21000 DOW AND 900 $ GOLD SOO CARVEL AND BUY BUY BUY ! COOL !!!!!!!!!!!!
I guess longs are desperate now. Making money in these markets are tough. It is like dancing on the tip of a knife.
For longs out there:
If you don’t believe Fed Manipulation, just look at the dollar index. It did not just move up steadily, but had a dramatic vertical leap right on New York opening. This is typical behavior of manipulation. This is not typical behavior of normal markets.
Right now there is a lot of Hedge Fund and professional money in the market, which tends to rely on technical analysis. When given a hint by the Fed or its proxies of movement, the professional money moves in and rides the momentum. The Fed this year, with only a few rare exceptions, also paints the tape, specially on Mondays and Fridays.
When a sudden jump up or down occurs, one rarely sees a sudden change reversing direction with a jump. However, when there is slow movement in one direction, one can see a sudden reversal. These sudden jumps which often occur at times when volumes are low are examples of big players manipulating he market. The biggest player of all is the U.S. Federal Reserve.
If I don’t believe in FED manipulation I would be out long time ago. The sudden jump in gold is more regular and visible. This is the way it penetrates the key values like today. They has to gather strength. I even suspect that the 2011 was a setup to allow them to crush gold to a bigger fall. Then it is far more convincing. Like David Morgan said, it scares you out or wares you out.
CFS,
Fed-manipulated gold seems more convincing than the case to manipulate USD? More like a natural force of market chasing USD responding to No QE (sucking usd back), rate hike? Why would they want high USD though?
I guess crashing gold and other curencies automatically raises the dollar. For a reserve currency, the strength is quite important and trade deficit is not a big concern. It is confidence game. We can see US is hitting everywhere in the world now to force money to US.
Just my 2 cents.
Lawrence, seems to me more like part of the plan… for their next plan… it’s all scheduled!?!?…. pump QE – weaken USD + dump gold, suck it back – strengthen USD + boost confidence?, what’s next do you think???… Inflation?
Never know what they will do. I am sure FED is in a box otherwise there is no way to have nearly 6 year Zero Interest Rate Policy (ZIRP) and 3 QEs. It is first time in history, ever. I remember Greenspan lowered interest rate to 1% for one year and people blamed him for having caused the year 2000 stock bubble and housing bubble and predicted he would be the worst Fed chairman in the history. But, he was/is a goldbug. Look at the new ones. There is no way to raise rate due to the debt level and hundreds of trillion dollar’s interest rate swaps by the banks. Since housing and federal deficit needs money to fund, they may have to do QE again, especially recession time is approaching. If I were them, I will hit gold hard, sell a lot of paper gold so I can collect physical. Then I will force a cash settlement and then I will start QE again, in some form. Like Reinhart has outlined in “financial repression”, it is the only way to deal with the massive debt. They include money printing, negative interest rate, capital control, and captive buyers of federal debt.
Do you know of a website that lists all the miners and related info?
I used to watch a silver miner list in SilverStrategies.com. Not sure about gold.
Have you fully explored you brokerage site?
The Lemmings, Al? This is part of the formula we should all know well. The most selling takes place at the bottom. The most buying is at the top. We shall see in the next few days if the silver longs have capitulated or not. If they didn’t then expect a lot more downside. The Lemmings may yet turn out to be foxes depending on where the final bottom is found.
I don’t understand why being short is such a sin, these markets are a casino, its kinda like putting your money on red or black as far as I can tell.
Course we get a little more info as to which way to bet but other than that, how the heck are they different?
So why are people so negative about being short?
Very good reasoning birdman.It is a setup bait and switch.If you ever lived on the streets every one who has knows it.It is a rug being set up to get pulled out.Thanks doc for all your willingness to share you insights with those of us are using our minds elsewhere.It is a rare character that is willing to let as many as can share in the escape from someone having more dominion over them then any other free man deserves if he is paying attention to his Freedom.Thank you for it doc!You are a living inspiration of what our forefather put on paper for us.My the Good Lord Bless you for it! And as said may be your walk”HAPPY TRAILS”
12 $ SILVER BIRDMAN ? CAN’t ? ?
$12 will be the buy of a lifetime…………….
J.
Harry Dent predicts $250 gold which may mean $3 silver. There are a lot of numbers flying around. Lower the price the lower the number. It is like catching your own shadow.
Harry is crazy………..$3 silver…….will never hit the market…….it will be absorbed before the number prints…………..
Geez, short just might be the way to go, hgd was up about 7% from yesterday, on a what? about a $20 move. I also saw some shares on the kitco list down 7-8% today.
If over 100 points can be made on such a small move shorting could be worth a lot of money.
Harry did not say $3 silver but he said $250 gold. By the the GSR, it should be about $3. You can refer his interview in SchiffRadio.com a couple of months ago.
I can see $5. But not $3.
What is the implication for silver miners at $5? They spend $23 to dig this thing out of ground and get $5 for the sale. One ounce loses $18 while they have no money in the treasury. I cannot see any quicker way towards bankruptcy.
There are some $8 predictions now j.
Even read a $4 a month or so ago.
The real issue as I see it is we don’t know how much supply is available.
Like gold, I googled around yesterday and I guess there is somewhere around 30k tons in reserve, but there are about 170k tons that are known about not in reserves.
seeing 170 peeked my interest of course thinking of Hudas, anyway, whats to say that some of those owners wont sell?
We just plain don’t know how much supply we have to take into account.
That is the key…………no one knows the amount of supply…….but, if Warren Buffitt supplied all the silver for the SLV ETF, ……why, did they have to ask Warren to supply his stash, if there was that much around…………..Liars, thieves and con artist print those numbers to shake everyone out of their holdings………….The FED is a liar and theif, and all associated with them are the same……..CENTRAL BANKING IS A FRAUD, and this will all shake out in time…….All truth surfaces sooner or later.
Let’s do this…………I AM PREDICTING …..$1 SILVER…now we have a bottom…..
I agree with you on that J, that’s why I own it.
I don’t agree with the dollar call. You posted again before I did.
Glad we agree………….bb……..
ok, I will give you some slack on the $1 call……….lol
J.. Long, man $1 silver would be niceeeeeeeee.
I start to get greedy. LOL
Yes, if that target breaks, I am willing to pay you an ounce of silver
Supplies are rampant… Try selling, you will find your answer.
Greed overpowerth they man………..
Last time silver was under $18.00 the premiums were huge, now try getting spot.
Bobby…..are the shops over loaded in Florida…….? thanks j…..
Jerry, I’ve been a seller on the private market, even those buyers are drying up, I’ve never sold to “the shops” just bought from them. Even getting spot on eBay nets you 88% after fees.
Yesterday 10 once silver bars were being bought 18.80 and sold at21.30.
Local currency exchange, Albern in Calgary.
thanks Bobby……………….j
thanks bb………..j
BB, Albern is the cheapest you can get. I asked around and found it out. I used to buy from scotia, CIBC, rbc and kitco. After adding shipping the premium is unbelievable. I am trying to accumulate eft and exchange for monster box when sbt.un has premium. It has discount now but no volume.
Eft not eft
iPhone sucks
Albern is reputable, I believe boarder gold in surry bc, and Benny Lee in Vancouver used to be too, Im sure the are others.
They get it from the mint and just get their premiums, don’t believe they car what the sell price is, maybe buying concerns them not sure.
Hi Doc, Next stop $1050?
Could very well be—-2 things I don’t like: 1. We had a weekly close below the previous weekly lows 2. The weekly momentum indicators are decidedly bearish.
Nice end of week, Dow over 17k, silver under $17.00. Call the er.
it does stink……………..
Bobby………how are Condo sales in your area?
This is not the Miami area, prices are still low, lots of inventory..high hoa fees and low rents. Plus most buildings are 30+ years and showing their age.
THE HOA fees will kill you…….thanks for the input Bobby…………..
I think the inventory, is part of the huge inventory, which was exposed several years ago, …..something like 29 million vacant units…..that no one talks about. What ever the number of extra units……….there is plenty of supply…..
I’m interested in hearing some post game commentary from Glenfidish. That was a strong call yesterday when you were looking for a slam today. Glen if you are out there, I know you were looking for a change moving into the first 2 weeks of October. How do you think this thing will end up looking in October? Do you think we’ve bottomed? By the way, your replys to your posts from yesterday = funny stuff.
edit – replies.
Doc,
Thanks for the kind words!
For the record I still hold my longs in place.
My trading portfolio=sidelines currently having recently had my stops triggered at a 2% loss. However this move turned out to be a blessing as prices have continued to fall. My secret has always been to never show my hand, meaning never use stops. In this environment I have no choice or the wolves will me..
So as for trading position, i remain vigilant but this market is not allowing me in nor am i seeing an opportunity to do so. When I mentioned first two weeks of october i should have been more specific. First week is a short week made up of three days so I don’t really want to count that. Lets use the following two weeks. If some of you remember I said few days back that tuesday might be the bottom. There are several factors why I Iike the date. It’s more based on timeline, indicators, previous history regarding certain miners or company’s which I hold and there performance around this timeline. So many things come into play. Like I have said many times that the ducks need to align and they are doing so. I expect volatility to pick up and vix to spike soon. The fact that tuesday is a 7, and that number is very well known to be an elite number is also coming into play. But lets be real the 7 is not why im looking at that date. Sunday nigh will paint a picture and monday open we shall see how aggresive it is.. If the miners close in on there 52 week lows and most find long term support/bottoms and all that correlates around 1180 gold, we may have a bottom of some sort. Personally I’ve always liked october as a bottoming/sideways trend..November to be more explosive..
Hope this helps
Theoretically silver and gold futures could go to zero because it is paper and not metal.
In a situation like that having the real metal trumps having paper because who ever wants metal has to negotiate with owners of real metal and pay what the owners require and futures contracts be damned.
Big Al, you have my email address, please give it to bb…..appreciate!
Hey, jj, that would be great.
Oh, and congrats today.
Im sure you have already but Norcini is worth a bit of a giggle today.
JJ, I havnt received anything from Al, maybe he isn’t reading the blog.
bb, why don’t you send Al an email as I’m sure I’m not in his good books (no xmas card this year)…. al@kereport.com
I asked Al jj, said he could send you mine as well.
good stuff, fire me an email bb ….and I’ll send Al a request from my end….Thanks! Al
No response jj, maybe he is busy, he mentioned on the other thread his daughter was around.
Hey bb…..you want a good laugh. I have this hysterical post from Matthew that is now 15 months old but you might enjoy reading it again. I had bet Matthew a bottle of wine that silver would drop to 16.30 and gold would see a final bottom at 968.00 ….. Well here we are and silver has finally come to within 34 cents of my bottom call …………..(gulp.that must mean the bottom is almost here!).
————————-
On July 22, 2013 at 10:46 am,
Matthew says:
Speaking of sentiment, Marc, now that the dumb money has unwisely exhausted their “votes” (sold out), the remaining owners of gold, silver, and the miners will not not let a substantial portion of their holdings go cheap (cheep?).
Bird sounded very decisive to me last week when he wrote:
“Lets take some bets on a final bottom for gold and silver and see who is right.
Here is my numbers: Silver falls to 16.30 and Gold does not bottom until 968.00
Now what have you got? I wager a bottle of wine I come closer than you.” And:
“So what is your call then? Take a risk Matthew. Name a bottom for gold and silver.”
For the record, I said that his targets were wrong. The next sharp decline will cause the bird to get bearish (again) while the smart money will be in a “buy the dip” mode”.
—————–
Hey Matthew…how did that buying the dip thingy work for ya buddy! Smart money eh?
Honustly Bird, Ive seen you and jj (and I think another I forget who) as correct for some time now, I think Im about convinced hgd might be a good idea.
I wasn’t sure it was as it seemed expensive compared to potential profit.
But from my calculations today I have to think it is if were going down to about $1000.
I would wait until Monday is over bb to see what plays out. There is actually a very good chance we get a strong technical bounce off these fresh low numbers first. The bulls will try hard to reassert themselves and take it higher again. If gold looks like it will start to really move they will pile in with both hands like crazy with stops at 1190. Call it a recharge for the bears if you will before the next leg down. They have to put some money on the table before those declines below 1190 happen though. That’s how they all get royally screwed on a dead cat bounce.
Sounds logical Bird.
Really, bird, you would wait until Monday? Does anyone have a choice?
You need to learn to read more carefully Matthew. I said “until Monday is OVER”.
16.30 …….16.30 ……..16.30 !!!! Ha Ha Ha Ha!!!!!!!
Funny that you would suddenly highlight a target that is very close to the one that Rick Ackerman did if 16.82 was taken out (which it was yesterday). Hmmm (and LOL………………….)
16.30 was my long term prediction from over a year ago you moron.
Yeah, nice try.
It was posted July 15 2013…..and linked above…. read it and weep. I was correct.
And you were dead wrong.
Silver incidentally peaked near 25.00 dollars in August of 2013 and has been in decline ever since so I happen to think that was a pretty good long term call even if Matthew keeps calling me the “dumb money”.
I may even have to remind Al that while Matty refused to take the bet that he did offer a 30 dollar bottle of wine if I turned out to be correct. I still need another 322 dollars on gold though….probably kind of a stretch though given that silver has already arrived!
Make sure and read Norcini today Bird.
I wish you would have read that atricle why the Chinese see gold as the buy of the century.
About $1000, sge supposedly running out, and rumours of an attack on the comex coming.
Some months back some articles were saying there should be a big clean out, then, up it goes.
Its possible we are in it. Bo still has time to be right.
Not saying he is, just that he has time.
Will do bb. Heading there now!
I mean 222 bucks to go on gold….not 322.
In time I think you’ll get it your 222 easily, plus then some.
We’re going very low 900’s now in a best case scenario imo.
Good times ahead.
What you didn’t point out, BM, is that the whole sector was much higher a month after that comment of mine. GDXJ and silver both jumped about 30%. Do the words buy low sell high mean anything to you?
Silver has never been so oversold. Silver has also never remained oversold for such a long time without a relief rally. Despite the extreme negative sentiment, PSLV still trades at a 4%+ premium to NAV. It traded at a discount to NAV at the June and December ’13 lows. I like it.
GDXJ showed had “move-ending” volume today. Of course it can still go lower, but a LOT of people threw in the towel today. The sellers were very scared and the buyers were happy. I got three orders filled today.
‘Be Fearful When Others Are Greedy and Greedy When Others Are Fearful’ —Warren Buffett
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SILVER&p=D&yr=1&mn=5&dy=0&id=p03659015825&a=369611738
Uh hunh…… and we went up in August as you point out now (after the fact) but back then you wrote the following:
—————–
“For the record, I said that his (Birds) targets were wrong. The next sharp decline will cause the bird to get bearish (again) while the smart money will be in a “buy the dip” mode”.
———–
And what happened then Matthew? Did you buy those dips once gold and silver started falling after August as you boldly proclaimed? So is that what the smart money really did? Seems to me the smart money went short since then! Because if you did buy the dips after August 2013 you got your arse handed you on a platter since prices NEVER recovered again. In fact I was right to advise caution in July even if I was early by one month. You on the other hand were massively mistaken and here we are buddy…..just 34 cents off my silver target of 16.30
Don’t you EVER admit you were wrong and the other guy might have been right? Are you really so proud, man? I challenge you to address the central point of your own post and words above because silver (your favourite) has fallen almost NINE DOLLARS since those July 2013 posts were written.
And you know what else? We WILL go below 1000 on gold before its all done. Now man up!
Bird, unless you’re only interested in very short term trading, buying the big dips has worked well. Each dip has been followed a very good rally.
Matthew… not that I dont love your charting… but mann…. the fuel of USD rocket has no sign of running out… it would stay like that til lots are insolvent…LOL..
Good luck if you want to follow Matthew’s charts or Heavy Hitter’s constant CAPITALISED gold pumping/posturing over the next 6-12 months.
The ‘Good Ship Gold’ is completely rudder less. ….despite the constant stay strong / buy the dips / $2000 gold by years end / $10,000 gold calls by Organ links by HH to Silver Doctors etc BS from some.
Gold is at the mercy of the market winds.
And the ‘Good Ship Gold’ is going to get her hull completely torn out by a reef before this is over.
But thats a good thing,
Some of us will be there to salvage the few pieces left, very profitably.
Exciting times are ahead.
But not for the gold pumpers / Schills / BS gold newsletter writers beforehand.
Embrace the current Gold Bear market…..its your friend.
totally agreed Skeeta…. I like Matthew’s chart.. (lines/arc and how he outlined his opinions) as much as I like Birdman’s comments… KWN / Schiff / J. Sinclair are somewhat to an extreme end to me… Some say there is no fundamentals in this market but man…when USD is high and gold is hit… it really shows fundamental exists?… Thanks for opinion.
Nicely said Skeeta and Genesys. Truth is that gold and silver will eventually hit bottom. A great time to buy back in will surely come. We just don’t know how long metals will remain depressed once they get there though.
Genesys, you won’t become insolvent as long as you don’t use debt to get your leverage.
Thanks Matthew.. good point.
Bird,
Can you please explain to the viewers if you have not already why 16.30 and 968.. If you did make those calls that great but elaborating would be fantastic :).
I just want to know why those figures?
And lastly are you still sticking with that 968 or will you change your mind if you see something?
thx in advance
Yes Glenfidish, in fact I did make those predictions for final bottoms for gold and silver. I have stuck to my guns all that time except for a few brief days in the beginning of this year when it looked like I had been wrong and gold starting moving up pretty strongly.
You can read that old thread from July 15th 2013 if you are curious. It is linked below. As usual Matthew and I were arguing. But the guy was just so infuriating as he kept calling me “dumb money” and “weak hands” or telling others I should start taking my medications. Grrrrrr!
It is no big surprise to me incidentally that my predictions are playing out as estimated. My bets were made on the usual information and outlook for the dollar etcetera and so I drew my conclusions based on the technical picture at the time. I could not however time it but that is a common problem with most long term technical setups.
We are not all the way there yet though so I cannot open the champagne bottle quite yet. I guess the only point is that I want to remind Matthew about those conversations after all the abuse and insults and name-calling he was heaping on me back then. Especially as it was me who turned out to be correct in the end!
There is no feathers for the caps of anonymous bloggers in any case and no awards for calling the trend right or calculating prices accurately. Nobody outside this thread really cares what I said back then and to be honest, I am not really a proud person anyway.
This is merely a small private victory for me and nothing more.
But I want Matthew to be a little more fair and balanced in his comments directed at me and to maybe just for once say “Hey Bird….good call”. That’s about it. This was a competition between us that has come out in my favour. Maybe he could tone down all the rhetoric about so-called “smart money” and then we can get back to discussing gold like men and not a bunch of playground children.
Rick Ackerman and Technicals – Tue 16 Jul, 2013 — Birdman’s Calls on gold and Silver
http://www.kereport.com/2013/07/16/technicals-rick-ackerman/
Hey Bird, yea think we bottomed this week, not sure but most likely we do not go much lower if at all and we rally here…could take us back to approaching 1300 and GDX 25 before the FOMC and then we will see…Remember whatever the majority thinks may happen but never the easy way. so yea it would be nice and neat to waterfall Mon to 950 but it does not work that way. I think we don’t see 950 until next year but we will see it and many bulls will be saying triple bottom, we are going back to 1500 etc. once again capitulation is not easy or clean but when it happens we will all know it,
No NYC…. I do not think we have seen the bottom yet and it is not clear to me how long prices will stay down now that they have arrived here. The dollar presents MAJOR headwinds and we know with certainty today that the ECB will keep the pressure up for two more years as they seek dollar parity.
We also have to keep in mind that sentiment readings have gone from dismal to utterly terrible in a very short period to time. There is not a more hated sector than gold anymore especially as it disappointed so many after falling back this year.
Too many got burned and will think twice before getting back in the game. I am not just talking about retail buyers either. The poor feelings are across the spectrum of buyers.
There is now a very heightened awareness that Fed and ECB policy will indeed dictate the fortunes of precious metals for the foreseeable future and this will become the major determinant of how hedge funds and large players position on metals. Don’t fight the Fed has been replaced by “Don’t fight the ECB”.
And it is not enough that prices are low to create new excuses to start buying. The last gasp of the gold-bugs these days is that now there is blood in the streets we MUST begin getting reinvested or we will miss the big turn when it comes. Good Grief!
Basically, all the wind has come out of the sails of those who were predicting a resurgence in gold prices. Virtually every single one of the hundreds of very convincing arguments in favour of gold and silver has failed.
So who is left to listen to the creative rationalizations anymore? How many will stake a claim when there is still downward momentum or at best a price range that begins to go sideways? In short, traders with conviction and good instincts will need to see signs of life before they jump back in the fire. At the minimum gold has to prove it is off life support!
I have reached my target on silver but now it is time to reassess. Gold has not followed silver down with the same intensity and in fact it has been remarkable stable despite the declines it saw.
All I can do now is watch and wait like everyone else. My gut tells me a strong technical bounce is in the cards but the setup right now looks like we must first drop below 1190 with conviction before that happens.
In short, I have no call for Monday. I do not know what is next.
Bird,
Always nice to get your perspective on things.
Hey, thanks Glen. Sorry about being so long winded though. I just feel I need to explain in detail why I think such and such is in the works. Just saying “gold will fall” is worthless news to everyone. We must know why it is in decline.
Kinda funny, he grinds the longs a bit.
He’s right though bb,
The always pro gold “ra ra ra” chanters are like cultists,
They are good for a chuckle though,
…..All crowded together in the wheelhouse….going down with the ship !
I think its coming back, maybe Im crazy but I figure he Chinese are going to start buying around $1000.
Check the article about why the Chinese see gold as the buy of the century on 321 gold.
Also, there is an article about peacans, I know nuts, but it shows that when the Chinese decide they do not mess around.
I cant remember where I read the peacan article, zero hedge,silver doc maybe.
Chinese gold buying won’t drive the market alone.
You need the West to turn pro gold also….which currently is not present.
But will be one day.
I think it will matter, they not the only ones.
the Indians appreciate good prices and there are a host of others.
But, just my guess.
If you get a chance read that article.
They can buy the entire worlds reserves without batting an eye.
I think it could start at about $1000.
Shouldn’t be long and I find out how good my thinking is about it.
bb,
I agree, its all just a matter of opinion & timing,
Its also not necessary to get in at the exact bottom.
Its more important to GET OUT before the next top.
My eldest Son’s Fiance is a stunning girl of Indian parents.
Her father (university professor) is also the biggest gold bug I’ve ever met.
Only family comes before gold for him.
He said he’ll start nibbling again in the $900’s
But expects it to at least hit the high $800’s if not lower.
He also thinks ‘Ranting’ Andy Hoffman’s constantly wrong diatribe is pure comedy,
“Even funnier than Benny Hill” he said.
If Im wrong, I figure I learn to plate stuff in silver and make gold jewllery.
Fortunately I’m very proficient in casting PM’s (my work involves it)
Turning my PM’s into jewelry would be my final resort for my physical holdings if the government ever decided to confiscate bullion and / or coins.
But I think that’s unlikely ?
I would love to know how to plate silver. Looks dangerous as hell from what I have read though and fairly complicated to do it properly. I still have not found a site that explains it well enough that I would give it a try. Do you need to make colloidal silver first Skeeta? Does that create enough material to start plating silver over copper for example?
Bird,
Sorry but I cannot give you any meaningful work related info regarding silver plating (I don’t do it).
I used to do a fair bit of gold plating, but even that has very much fallen by the wayside over the last two decades. I now only drag out the gold plating solution 4 or 5 times a year now at best.
Most of my work involves casting Palladium, Gold, Silver & to a far lesser extent Platinum.
I also occasionally have the need to cast alloys that contain Copper, Tin, Zinc, Indium, Ruthinium , Gallium, Iridium etc all in their various percentages.
Since the GFC the amount of non-precious (base metal) casting I do has also risen extensively. It seems everyone out there has been trying to cut costs everywhere wherever possible by eliminating more expensive alloys if its possible (not always so for every application though).
Cheers.
Very interesting stuff, Skeeta. I had no idea you were that involved in precious metal work. Do you cast mostly jewelry pieces or is it custom work on contract? Just curious of course so no need to answer if it is personal. Out here in Africa the street sellers all use manual hand-crank air bellow forges to make metals molten. I have not seen an electrical powered system yet. The jewelers start it off with charcoal and then force air across a ceramic container until the gold turns liquid before pouring it off into small molds. Really interesting stuff actually.
Out in my shed I still have a couple of open top centrifugal casting machines (now illegal for my employee’s to use I believe). They were the days, wind them up, fire up the gas/air torch & melt your alloy. Hold the torch in one hand, open a furnace with the other and grab your investment casting ring & place it in…then simultaneously lift the torch out of the crucible, release the centrifugal spring & duck for cover if you thought the crucible was overloaded…lol.
These days everything is molten electronically under safety hoods/guards.
….takes the fun out of it 🙂
Totally unlikely, more of a chance for sprott or gld to get confiscated, not enough people own it to make it worth a search.
On the other hand, I just listened to an interview, the fellow is a traveller for business, said he wears a suit, and looks like he has money, he is now getting searched.
He believes they are looking for cash.
I travel extensively, and no longer carry significant amounts of physical metals.
I have been searched in the last few years almost every time I tried.
I often carry $5k in US cash and a similar amount in Euros, but over $10K should be declared…..still legal to take on a plane.
I think the new large US notes have some strip inside that shows up on some newer detectors, but don’t know for sure.
Maybe one of the globetrotters on here could comment.
I have heard 9,999 dollars or euros passes the test but one over that and they confiscate.
That rings a bell for me, I know I don’t do anything over about 9k with a bank, other than a mortgage. 10k raises flags I think.
Wouldn’t surprise me if it was less for something to be flagged on a domestic scale ?
A few months back I walked into the bank to withdraw $8000 in cash.
The female bank teller asked me what it was for?
None of your business I replied,
Are you buying a car she asked ?
No I said,
What are you buying then was her next question ?
How much money do you and your husband make per year ? Also how much is your house mortgage ? Or is that too personal a question to ask you also I replied.
She then told me she needed authorisation and walked over to another teller who punched something into a computer then picked up the phone & dialed…..sure enough my phone rang in my pocket. I answered by saying “I just want my own money”.
Two minutes later a sheepish looking bank teller handed it over.
I don’t know what the big deal was….it was only $8000 ? And I had already given over several photo ID’s for verification.
Creepy stuff. Is it in US or Canada?
Nope, Australia. Lawrence.
Oh. I am in Canada. they usually ask me to have an appointment ahead of time in case they don’t have that much cash. Cannot remember they ask me why I want it. I usually take out 5k.
Yes,the banks are worshipping Dodd frank!And are offended that you did not comply to their kitty!
Yes, but it is quite invasive. It won’t make me happy.
OK wrong country.But,still.
I still believe gold is a wonderful short at this price.
I don’t know why the Fed would particularly want a strong dollar. It does not even have to be the Fed. e.g. It could be Soros trying to kill the Euro. (Remember he killed the Pound twenty plus years ago.) I just observed that there was a dramatic jump in the dollar, which is a characteristic of deliberate manipulation. Later we will probably find out who did it.
Bird, I am just saying gold and silver are way oversold, the dollar wildly parabolicly overbought and we are right at strong support and resistance respectively for both. The cots are bullish for gold and bearish also for the dollar. We are at extremes so we could retest 1180 sure bit I think we bounce up and have a multiweek technical rally and probably gold hits its head at 1320 and down we go again. That all
Totally agree NYC. If gold does see significantly lowers lows, I think it will happen after a rally of the sort you described.
If gold manages to take out the low next week, I think the downside would be limited to a quick spike of $30-$50 because of how oversold it already is. To me, such action would negate the potential for lower lows in 2015.
In other words…no change in behavior. Buy with both hands like every other day?
No bird, no real bottom no stupendous change yet no. I am saying all signs are that 1180 holds for now and we get a bounce. U r using the same logic the knucklehead perms bulls use ate the top only on reverse. I are and have been right, all I am saying is “u r only smart until u r stupid” and I for one have been way stupid too many times but u dont start major down legs from,a position like this, so no nor now not yet. We will most likely hit 950 or some other big round # but not mow bird
I was answering Matthew, NYC. Sorry for the confusion. About where we stand now does it not strike you as a strong possibility that the larger buyers will cash-out knowing as they do that triple bottoms (or triple tops) rarely work? We will see it in the premarket no doubt and major stop triggering will follow all morning. There are much better odds we get a gold bloodbath Monday than we get a bounce. I still think a 50 dollar drop is well within reason. It is interesting to me how prices held and levitated just pennies off support, That gives the boys the advantage to escape with their heads before the rubes wake up and know they got clobbered.
So there you have it. I have decided… Monday Bloody Monday. And down we go!
Re: “Buy with both hands like every other day?”
Lying again. I never report that I am buying when the price is up and/or rallying.
As for your call for $50 down on Monday, I hope so!
Birdman you was right all along, many were calling for much lower dollar like gary in 2013, you nailed it
Thank You!
And we have been very oversold on gold for many weeks and silly overbought on the us dollar for many weeks also..doc postma’s macd is crazy overbought on the dollar and way oversold on gold and silver
If only you could trade successfully based on that knowledge!
Lets continue discussion next week…we will see, I hope we do get that final capitulation
I note from Kitco charts that copper was up on Friday; so was nickel, aluminium, zinc and lead. Precious metals were all tlashed: gold silver platinum and palladium. Uranium also down a bit.
gold support at 1245 long broken., There is a kinf of double top formation since January with neckline there.
All the metals charts totally stink. Who knows when this thing will stop.
bottom line: gold is almost $1190 and that is 4.7x its 1999 low at $253. So it is still high. FOr me, it can still be sold at a good profit, though not nearly as good as at $1900 of course.
Gradually, very graually, the secular bear market will finally come into focus.
OK ! RELAXES https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5QKPSb666Eg&list=PLFyDi73_bbrGwxd_l_dm4BFARU_rPE19B&index=2