Is the low for gold in?
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Why of course the govt. is opposed to the idea……of the gold holdings……….
Peter, I saw that. My first thought is that is exactly what we would expect them to say.
Lets se how they vote. Or, what the machines say they voted.
I can see the vote effecting the gold price, but really, India wants to build more gold refinaries. They wouldn’t want to do that if they didn’t figure they could get their hands on it.
All demand has ben met by current supply, I don’t see why switserland cant get what they want too.
BB, if the vote was YES, I think they have to buy A LOT OF GOLD. That’s way the DARK SIDE OF THE FORCE is supressing the gold price.
Sure, that’s how they trade it cheaper.
AL SAYS………….GOLD $10,000………………(of course it was in his sleep)
Concerning the gold stocks performance today – could that not just be reflective of the overall stock market, somewhat??
Derek, I believe that’s a good observation. We may be just having a general sell-off at the moment and that’s not all bad for the PM stocks if you’re waiting for even lower prices. I believe the conventional markets have more downside and the PM stocks may reverse with the coming correction of the dollar.
Doc, do you offer a subscription-based advisory service? If so, could you provide your website address, please? Thank you.
Richard,
I’ve been saying all along that we would go much lower with oil prices. Ive been saying this since the days when many on here were screaming much higher oil and 200 oil some of them.
I can’t stress this any better then this. I believe the stock market correction that we are currently seeing will pick up strength.. I believe the dollar decouples from the equities and goes up higher soon with gold. Look for 78 wti oil fairly quickly. Im talking within a week or two. Its’s going to be high volatility. gold/silver ready to spike into 78/80 final target. I have miners reversing trend once oil goes into the 70’s. This is deflation environment i have been speaking about that is the fuel to set gold free. In other words, lower oil means lower aisc.. Oil at those prices will be the hedge of a lifetime and aisc will go down.
This is actually the environment that makes return of a lifetime in the miners ala 2008/2009.
I am counting on it, Glenfidish.
IS THE LOW FOR GOLD IN? Richard Russel seens to think so.
Richard has been on the sidelines for two year……..he has a lot of experience…one of these days the guy is going to be correct………..
I talked to a couple 90 year olds today at there community living centre and they said “gold to the moon!” and then they asked me if I was Pierre Trudeau. I think one of them was Richard Russell. Dam bulls are desperate for an opinion.
was that before or after their medication…………
NICE MOVE in platinum ….and palladium…….
OCTOBER JETTERS………………..oct 1987……markets have memories…..A lot of memoirs by those who remember.
Hello Doc, today miners (especially gdxj) are making a wild round-trip… thu high to friday low then monday back to thu high and today we get back to friday low again…. (even lower as of now)…. do you happen to be able to interpret what it means? As you mentioned, metal itself hold pretty well.. … I’m getting heart-attack.. 😀
Genesys; the thing I worry about the most is holding my purchasing guns too long and not pulling the trigger soon enough. It’s happened before because I got too cute waiting for the ultimate bottom. Then the thing blasts off and I miss the first 10%+ of the move. You may be getting a heart attack and I’m getting an attack of angina. I can just smell a coming turn around. Also, Gil below has it right—–the dollar is getting very heavy and that may be the turning point.
Nothing wrong with buying within 10% of the low and selling 10% from the top.
I agree 100%, Bonzo!
Ditto!
Hi Doc, thank you for your thought…
Forget all the gold charts. Look at the uup. The weekly chart is sporting a monster black candle and looks like a bearish piercing signal. If it holds this has the makings of the start of a big big decline.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=UUP&p=W&yr=3&mn=0&dy=0&id=p10883537414&a=369505913
Gil.. do I understand you correctly that you’re on the camp USD will probably at high chance fall hard anyways..?
Gil,T Fergoson has an article @ silver Doc that seems to agree with your candle.
I am not aware that UUP is based on gold. Is it against other fiat currencies?
UUP……was just a short , stuttering , when he noticed gold’s price today…….
Components of USDX® Futures Contract
Euro 57.60%
Japanese Yen 13.60%
British Pound 11.90%
Canadian$ 9.10%
Swedish Krona 4.20%
Swiss Franc 3.60%
The PowerShares DB US Dollar Index Bullish Fund (Symbol: UUP) seeks to track changes, whether positive or negative, in the level of the Deutsche Bank Long US Dollar Index (USDX®) Futures Index – Excess Return™ (DB Long USD Futures Index) plus the interest income from the Fund’s holdings of U.S. Treasury securities less the Fund’s expenses.
Here’s a weekly look at UUP. I think it has every reason to correct from here right now.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=UUP&p=W&yr=8&mn=3&dy=0&id=p21351018608&a=369605702&listNum=1
Matthew.. thanks for the chart.. could you clarify how meaningful/significant is the green downtrend line that it’s hovering at the moment?
Genesys, breaking a six year downtrend is significant to me by itself, but this particular downtrend line happens to intersect a much bigger downtrend that started in 2001. In addition, there’s the significant horizontal resistance area between the dashed red lines (that price has been unable to stay above -so far). There’s even some resistance from the fibonacci-based 377 week simple and exponential moving averages currently at 22.84 and 22.87, respectively.
Here’s a bigger, monthly view:
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$USD&p=M&yr=20&mn=11&dy=30&id=p84564169870&a=370649323
Thanks Matthew for sharing your thought… (Nice charts as always.)
Tomorow is the day. If FED minutes ctrl+c ctrl+v, expect a big washout on Dollar. But if more hawkish, gold gonna test 1180 lows.
I’m incredibly hacked at the miner’s action completely retracing today and gold staying up around 0.3%. Ridiculous.
I meant it was ridiculous that GDXJ falls 4% and GLD goes up 0.3%
Hey guys…..we got a triple bottom….get ready for a ride,……its coming…and it AiNT DOWN.
ARE you sure on the triple bottom……………..I wasn’t counting……….
SD…Jerry…….From what I was hearing from the Experts !!!!!..over the last year it seems to me that we have had dozens of bottoms………….
bottom….what a yummy word….hehe
J…THE LONG…… I’ve now got a triple bottom on the pontoon…carries more weight…..bars of silver…..to it’s watery hiding place…..
looks like we have bottoms everywhere………………………….
SD….bottom….get ready for a ride………That’s very naughty of you…….
Just checked the kitco list, a lot of red.
Anyone interested might read Norcini today.
That’s what we have been seeing a lot of lately when demoralization seems to be setting in, the market rights itself again and the advance starts settling in. Impossible to call but fun to watch, prices don’t even seem to get ragged any more, it’s just teeter totter.
Silver finds support in a pitchfork:
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SILVER&p=D&yr=1&mn=5&dy=0&id=p31638781711&a=370667383
Gold appears to be biding its tine (sorry).
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$GOLD&p=D&yr=1&mn=5&dy=0&id=p50420647631&a=370667893
Palladium’s reversal looks convincing:
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$PALL&p=D&yr=1&mn=5&dy=0&id=p25556810224&a=370668372
The self-proclaimed experts chortling about how wonderful it is that the dollar index is going up and gold/silver are crashing are ignoring what is really happening. The Euro and Yen are crashing and money is flowing to the US because of perfectly rational investors moving their assets from overseas out of their currency into the US dollar and the S&P. But short-term moves from dangerous economies into the US are like the water going out because of an approaching tsunami. But when those same investors realized all they have done is jump from the fat into the fire, the real tsunami will hit. When the S&P and dollar crash, the real tsunami hits.
http://www.321gold.com/editorials/moriarty/moriarty100614.html
I agree, but I think the S&P will go into a bear market without crashing. What are the odds of a crash in your opinion?
The action in platinum vs gold is interesting…
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$PLAT:$GOLD&p=D&yr=0&mn=5&dy=0&id=p50350840943
The S&P is far from a parabolic stage Bob,
Me may very well see corrections in it, but until it reaches that parabolic leg you are only missing out on profits.
But to each their own.
Golds time will come…..but its not now imo.
I didn’t say it was parabolic and indeed it is not. The dollar is. My opinion is that the S&P will have a major correction if not crash. It might go parabolic or it may just tank. I think the only major index I have ever seen go parabolic was the NAZ in March of 2000 when it went up 19 days in a row. The DOW and the S&P back then did not go up 19 days in a row nor did they go parabolic. But they did decline, just not as bad as the NAZ.
Bob,
I said its not parabolic yet, I did not mean you did.
It will be one day though, but now is far from that.
The dollar may well correct short term, but the dollar will rise much further in the next 12 months imo.
…..just as gold will plummet.
This will be a great thing, many opportunities for those interested rather than those counting losses in the miners.
Skeeta,
Gary has crb rolling over next year but we you are ruling out is from much higher prices. I have gold moving into 1550+ next year and then turning down into his cycle low. Basically down from a higher position and not down from were we currently are which make no sense.
Like bob says xau is 20 or so bucks from all time low. How could you not put some money to work from past history with major fed announcements and elections3-4 weeks away.
Glenfiddish,
No, this up spurt in the gold price was unexpected by me.
Whilst I still believe in a low 900’s for a gold bottom
I’m the first to admit I didn’t take advantage of this spurt up in price.
Congratulations to you and Matthew though who both called it.
Cheers.
12 weeks higher on the dollar is the highest in history, the XAU over gold is the lowest in history. Those are odds bets for a wonderful correction. If the S&P/DOW roll over in a massive crash, it’s all over.
In 1929, the DOW topped on the 5th of Sept, this year the DOW topped (so far) on the 17th of Sept. We are certainly in a crash potential mode. After 5 and a half years of upside, I wouldn’t bet the farm on more upside. Maybe it will but I am always looking for the Black Swan everyone is missing.
It’s hard to convince most investors that a crash is coming, they don’t know how to exit their positions and will get stung by the fact they can’t accept the flip side which is stocks fall harder and faster then they can climb.
Bob its the black swan events that don’t show up on indicators which scare the living shit out of investors. November 4th is the show down. Equities will turn down hard. I expect gold to move higher.
Machine Gun and Glen,
As you can see most of us here agree with you two.
Huh? What is that!;-/
I was just getting ready to pull the trigger then this drop occurred.
Here is a very interesting article on all in sustaining costs of gold and silver mining. Cheers.
http://katchum.blogspot.co.nz/2014/10/which-gold-miner-to-choose-based-on-aisc.html