A great round table to recap the crazy day in the markets
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The day was so crazy , the “Z” ran away in fear.
That’s just how crazy it was gentlemen!
I thought it was the guys who were taking zzzzzzzzzzzzs, and half asleep…….
more of Temple…
Maybe I am a suspicious person but I have to be if I want to make money. Does anyone think this crash is some major market players black mailing FED and government for QE 4? It might be one of the reasons! If mArket rise before or after another QE, it is the conclusion
Gary is on record stating that he “guarantees” this is not a market top……around 9:48
Hey Doc, VIX at twenty-six! Where’s it goin’?
Chris, Fed will raise rates when the Royals win the World Series (?) Hey, at least the uniform is close enough to Cubbie Blue! (haha).
Gary, I hear what you’re saying and I want to agree. But I hear a chorus of Rick and Doc sounding just as confident in their bearish tone. What if we just went sideways for a while and just let the metals shine for a change?
On Ebola and Frontier Airlines: I fly the Arizona/Chicago route a few times a year… I guess next time I’ll be wearing a mask.
I could easily see a triangle consolidation forming over the next several months followed by a final spike higher.
Yes, interesting to say the least. And yeah, I’ve seen that type of consolidation before. That would be enough to fake out both bulls and bears for a while. Thanks for the reply, bud.
FED will not raise rate before treasury defaults, at least not significantly.
Chips, something has changed in the markets—-there are too many firsts occurring since the conventional market started its’ bull run over 5 and 1/2 years ago. I won’t mention them all. However, the bear market of 2007-2009 eventually saw a vix of 90. For the first time in 5 and 1/2 years we now see the vix top the 50 day, 200 day, 50 week, and 200 week moving averages. I don’t just expect it to be a one week wonder—that would be highly unusual. By next week, I expect the vix to settle down a little but I believe it’s just one of many variables pointing to a new dimension taking place in the markets.
Many thanks, Doc, I appreciate the insight. Really do. I’ve “rooting” for the the VIX all year, haha. Another glaring tidbit for me today was that trendline support on the S&P from 2011. Appears to me that got breached, no? But I don’t think it closed lower; gotta draw some lines on some charts.
Quite a contrast to Gary and Rick Ackerman. They sure can’t both be right.
Pretty hard to accomplish that, sfc!
Gary
I respect your analysis and interpretation of markets, but I really think you have it wrong this time. The irrational behavior you discussed is happening TODAY, not a month ago when the S&P may have topped. What you should be asking is: “Does the irrational behavior today make sense for the beginning of a new bear market”. Basically, you are not correlating sentiment and actual prices along the same time-line, and I believe this is flawed reasoning. Brian
Gary, the stock bond ratio this is an unique event. You cant interpret a unique event with traditional interpretation. You are saying this is a typical int. bottom but the stock bond ration suggests otherwise. How is that not contradictory. I am not saying the sky is falling but I would not bet a sent on new highs. The highs we have reached will remain the highs for the foreseeable future. Even QE wont bring this back. If another QE occurs it will be different it wont be used to rapidly and artificially inflate the market. I will be happy to eat my words. Your cycle theory should be ignored completely in these crazy times as proven by your inability to forecast and call cycle highs and lows.
Peter,
I don’t think you understood what I was saying. At the start of a bear market there should be very little fear. Traders should have become so conditioned to buy the dip than an intermediate degree correction will no longer cause any fear.
I’m telling you that’s not the case today. We have massive fear. In some cases more so than in the middle of the crash in 2008. That should not be happening at the start of a bear market. This kind of fear should only show up once we are a year or more into the bear when traders finally have to acknowledge the bear.
Bears don’t start with everyone calling the top. That’s what is happening and has been for weeks. The same people that have called a top during every correction for the last 5 years are still calling tops. When those people finally stop calling tops then we will start a new bear market.
I also think it’s impossible to have a final top until the Fed does QE4. To try and call a top before that just makes no sense to me. Did these people forget what happened in 2011 when QE2 and Operation twist began?
I agree with you Gary. I was getting short in August, 2008, and absolutely no one was taking bears seriously in the MSM and the sheeple were even worse — totally oblivious and absolutely no fear whatsoever. I don’t know if we will see new highs or something like a double top, but I expect the MSM to advise buying the dip after the final high is in place.
Gary and Matthew: great commentary. How (or maybe where or when) does the current market fit within the classic bubble graph (The link is an example of the DOTCOM crash of 2000)
http://fixwillpower.com/blog/bitcoin-bubble-crash/
Thanks in advance, Brian
Actually BITCOIN versus DOTCOM – which is pretty interesting in itself …
I wouldn’t compare the s&p or dow to the dotcom or bitcoin bubbles, but I do think they are overvalued.
Since I’m still of the opinion that a real correction (not a crash) is overdue, I think a top is close or already in place but the Dow could still climb back to 17,000 or so before heading down again.
Gary
Is it possible that market psychology has changed after two prior events? 2000 and 2008. That is, no one wants to be fooled a third time?
Brian
Gary,
Im somewhat confused as you say no way we can have a market top in equities before fed does qe4… Did we not have a market top in October 2007 in dow jones and equities?And in november of 2008 Fed unleashed QE 1.
I’m saying too many analysts calling a new bear market. We all know that the Fed will do another round of QE. They aren’t just going to sit on the sidelines and watch as everything comes sliding back down.
When the market corrected in 2010 they started QE2.
When it corrected in 2011 they began Twist and LTRO then added QE3.
Now we are correcting hard again. It doesn’t make sense that this time they would decide to do the exact opposite and watch everything collapse.
So to call a top before QE 4 has even begun seems a little silly to me.
Seems to me that the PPT got back to work towards the end of today.
I think they just doubled their dosage
Something or somebody sure did, Bob!
Something is wrong, the decline has begun once more but we aren’t privy to what is going on behind the scenes. The market is not readjusting itself into a more secure technical position. There is a lot of trouble in the world and we have change that is rampant. Markets do not like uncertainty.
DT, not everyone is feeling the pinch: http://toronto.ctvnews.ca/ontario-teachers-pension-plan-buys-u-k-rope-maker-for-656-million-1.2052832
Hi Chris, that seems to me a good investment one that produces an item that are precisely those that a most cautious investor would select with an eye to the long future.
DT, agree, it’s a good investment. But I don’t want to hear any whining from them if things turn sour. Here in Quebec we’re having problems with the unions because we are asking them to pay half their pension. Firefighters trashed Montreal city hall a few months ago.
460 points………Dow down at one point………..HUGE MOVE………
Yes sir, Jerry!
Wake up folks. Ebola is just another hoax.
Can you believe it??? Mainstream media pundits are blaming ebola for this latest turn down in the market. Oh course, why not.
As for me, I think it was because a tree fell down somewhere in a forest or was it a butterfly flapping its wings on the other side of the world. I suppose if this correction continues, the pundits will blame it on the trees and butterflies, having exhausted everything else this side of wonderland.
Also, remember a few days back when folks out here were poo-pooing the massive sell off on Columbus Day. Thinking whoever pulled that trigger saw this coming–best to be first out at the top than last out at the bottom.
Halloween OCT…………..SPOOKS IN THE MARKET………PUMKIN PIE is going to be on someone’s face………………………
IT IS THURS………..and the London fix is in…………….NY back at work…..nothing new here……………………………….j……………
Gold continues to make progress and just had its highest volume day in almost 16 months.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$GOLD&p=D&yr=1&mn=5&dy=0&id=p60957850803&a=370667893&listNum=1
Insightful discussion on what’s going on in the treasuries markets
Gary, Hopefully this highly questionable move to bring people to the US for treatment, instead of moving the the resources to them won’t turn into a Pandemic. This may be of interest to everyone. Can’t locate article on the order first approved for Colloidal Silver shipments to Sierra Leone by the WHO. A cure that was already approved by the U.S. Navy to treat and heal Ebola years ago. The shipment was mysteriously returned to the Paris INTL Airport three time!
Just bought three large bottle of Sovereign Supreme and stored it with my silver. Ha Ha http://www.naturalnews.com/047238_Ebola_outbreak_exponential_growth_mathematics.html,http://www.naturalnews.com/047232_Ebola_natural_immunity_virus.html,http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=30q7BxVw7dw
No bear market…yet. This is “just” a (somewhat normal and overdue) ~20% correction. In the short-term we should soon have a real good bounce/rally. IMO this “correction” will fall to somewhere between SPX 1550-1650, and end sometime between Thanksgiving and Christmas. The bull market will resume once the correction is over and we’ll see new highs into 2015 (maybe 2016). I agree with Gary we will see QE4, or, an equivalent action by the EU, which will have a similar affect. The correction will ultimately be over (by Christmas) once virtually everyone believes we are in a bear market. There will be rallies along the way though. Should be interesting!
Very interesting, Mike!
Things are so crazy now that tomorrow could be an up day but it won’t last long because there isn’t anything fundamentally sound to base it on. This is the kind of market action happening when things are turning over.
Ditto Mike !!! Have to stick to market analysis !Watching world matters may drive one nuts, enlightened, prayerful,grateful Hmmm. Psalms 1:1-4, 6
1Blessed is the man who walks not in the counsel of the wicked, nor stands in the way of sinners, nor sits in the seat of scoffers; 2but his delight is in the law of the LORD, and on his law he meditates day and night. 3He is like a tree planted by streams of water, that yields its fruit in its season, and its leaf does not wither. In all that he does, he prospers. 4The wicked are not so, but are like chaff which the wind drives away. 6for the LORD knows the way of the righteous, but the way of the wicked will perish.
Matthew, I like your charts. Those trendlines you draw; what do you call them and are these based on cycles? Was just wondering what determines the starting points. Appears to me the blue lines stemming from 2011 lows and the green starting from a reversion to the mean. Thanks.
Chips, in the chart above, I simply chose the lows of 1 year ago and 3 years ago as the starting points. Since those are Fibonacci fan lines, I only control the starting and ending points of a single line (from a low to a high or a high to a low, for example). You can read about them here: http://stockcharts.com/school/doku.php?id=chart_school:chart_analysis:fibonacci_fan
Much appreciated, Matthew! I see how that works now re. peak to trough and vice versa. I had some previous knowledge of Fibonacci retracement, but not enough to speak of. I’m just getting into these deeper chart studies and definitely plan to purchase those study guides recommended at the end of the article.
Great roundtable guys! Love to hear more of these 🙂
Completely agree. The roundtable should be a mid-week event, not on the weekend show.
YA……..IT IS LIKE GOING IN CIRCLES……………………AROUND the Table…….
This market plunge is well controlled. Even gold price is capped well. VIX is only 29. It looks like the major players want the market down but don’t want panic.
The only way that The Fed and the bankers can give credence to The US fiat currency which is backed by nothing is to contain the Price Of Gold and to boost the stock market. That is a game whereby the opposite is true in their thinking but the public will at some point realize this deception. If the price of gold starts soaring and or the stock market tanks the mighty dollar will get creamed.
A country ruled by dishonesty will ruin itself.
Conveniently that funnels money from the Canadian market to the US markets. Making our markets, by default, also manipulated by the US as well as the crooks in the brokerage houses here in Canada.
Cray Day ???