Monday thoughts from Gary
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Indian and China combined is equal to or more than the world gold production
This was a particularly good interview with Gary and Al. I really appreciated how both people lined out their reasoning, kept the door open for the unknown, but gave two potential tracks in which things could develop. That is the most clear Gary has laid out his 1 year outlook thus far, and it will be interesting to see if we test 1180 one more time and blow through it on the 4th attempt to test the 1050 C wave top. If that happens, I will load up the truck, because the up wave movement will be an insane rise!
Thanks for the comment Shad!
A while ago there were loads of gold rabbits for sale in China. Maybe they will take their Year of the Rabbit gold rabbits and sell them and have them melted down! Since it is no longer year of the rabbit. The market will be flooded with gold from 100 million melted down rabbits and gold will crash to $500.
Common Dave, let’s try and be serious!
In other words Gary missed the move from $252 to $1900 and now he is hoping for another chance to get in.
The greatest time to buy gold in this generation was that move.
We have a bottom. It is in. Deal with it.
I got bullish on Gold in 2003.
I have you all beat: The majority of my gold was bought when it was in the $20 range…. I inherited my grandfather’s stack. I got lucky. But I have been buying gold and silver here and there since 2006.
Each day that goes by the bottom seems more and more likely.
Most likely you are right. The risk now is to miss the upward move. Downside is limited. Worrying about a couple hundred dollar loss and miss 1000 move is why people did not participate the first gold upward move in the first place.
Funny ๐ I got a laugh from that Lawrence. Keep them coming, man!
You might be laughing to early. There is a long way to go. One of us will be proven right.
Yeah yeah yeah….heard it all before! Ha Ha Ha!!!!! ๐
Here’s a little golden book that you could benefit from, Birdman:
http://www.tvacres.com/images/romper_room.jpg
You’re welcome.
Could not go to the link, Matthew.
Sold my Transocean as oil looks very weak and got out at my cost but it did not fall hard and bounced back higher. Took profits in Cyberark and went to all cash as the general market looks weak. Went back into GDX with a small position just pennies from the low as gold is looking strong.
Anyone can get bullish on something. Where’s the trades? Where’s the profit?
Where in writing is the documentation of all the trades? The exact trades. Not the if this then that…
I don’t see why miners are only a few points above the bear market lows even though gold has rallied $60. Something is wrong and caution is warranted. Miners should lead gold out of an intermediate bottom.
They are losing money and investors are scared. Please read the article “Why is the gold mining such a crappy business” on GoldSeek.com. Steve Saville is a smart analyst. If you replace gold with silver, you may fall from your chair. However while gold investors are scared, the buyer of jewelry are having a feast.
I think eventually the miners listed in US and Canada will be acquired by Wall Street banks for penny on the dollar.
Agree. That is exactly what is coming. Not just banks though. It is deeper than that.
Very interesting. Except banks, who else? I believe these guys are watching the miners as lions whatching the herds. They will make the killing when time is right.
Yup. Agree again Lawrence. Lions are clever hunters. They won’t waste energy, preferring instead to relax and get fat in the sun. So they take down the inexperienced young, the weak and the injured. For miners that is those companies whose reserves have run dry, who cannot find investors or financiers and those who are standing in line at the courthouse. All good meals. Take em as they come.
It is just a matter of time. Dinner comes to those who wait.
Agreed with a laugh. Hope you get the timing right and be the coyote behind the lions.
That’s actually not a bad theory. The banks in the 30s I believe contracted the money supply so there was not enough money in the system for everyone to make mortgage payments, then they scooped with foreclosures focusing on farmland.
At least that’s the story, so makes sense a similar manouver could be used to increase government gold supplies.
Why they wouldn’t just print the currency to purchase what they needed then revalue might be another question.
You are right.The nationalization of mining companies is listed in the the nwo’s agenda.The amero creation is listed next to it.
Gary, you are almost the only voice of sanity left on this site.
Oh common Bird, I am pretty darn sane along with everyone else!
Yes you are Al. I swear you are the prettiest baby in this nursery (er……insane asylum!)
You are sane, Al. Respectfully we all know your position on why you buy gold though..Insurance, and miners for upside leverage. Gary and other analysts can point to extremely effective charting though…and I follow their commentary for valuable input as a swing trader. Eventually your gut will be right…much higher gold price for fundamental reasons…also supported by technical ones…In the meantime I value their input for daily, weekly and cyclical moves. Their analysis isn’t really to be argued with is it? Currently wall street controls the gold price via naked shorting. In time the asian exchanges will take over as price setters, since you have to be pretty much a big bank or foreign nation to withdraw from the gld (and perhaps comex?) As long as wall street naked shorts control the gold price, fundamentals won’t matter.
Good points, Proud!
gary is right.Why buy now when you can buy later at a lower price.Patience is a virtue especially for traders.Traders should be more technical then fundamental imo because fundamentals are often tempered on purpose to put traders in a perplexed state of mind and ultimately put them off course.As a matter of fact mainstream media aka wall street prostitutes choose fundamentals and not technicals to deviate traders.With technicals you cannot twist the argument at your convenience but with fundamentals you can.
You are assuming that Gary has a crystal ball. Waiting to get in at the absolute low is another type of greed.
Yes it certainly is, Lawrence!
Rick rule QOUTES ! Big AL is totaly insane ! Nr 2 Birdman You totaly insane eve you don’t own GOLD !
It is not greed at all.It is called proffesionalism and knowing what you are doing.Nobody or very few pick the exact bottom(those very few are the insiders) but to try to pick a stock near the bottom as much as you can is not that impossible; always if you have a good grasp of the technicals.
Gary, I think it’s due to the action in the stock market recently. In 2008, the miners crashed and burned much harder than the S&P or Dow. The same has also been true of many other smaller declines. However, this time, the miners (GDXJ) have done very well and are up 11% from their Oct. 8 lows when priced in SPY. This change will get more recognition and cause more investors to get comfortable with the beat-up, cheap assets in the mining space just as they’re becoming less comfortable with the (mostly) expensive assets represented by stocks.
I keep seeing news on Pension funds and others getting out of hedge funds. This is great news as far as I am concern. Reduce the power of one group of dirty players. Pensions are looking toward real assets and not manipulation to secure their money. Last time I checked you could touch gold, silver etc. Pretty sure the only thing a hedge fund will give you to touch is a statement showing their fees.
All of the traditional tools used by pension funds are dogs. I am sympathetic to them
With the exception of stock market they have been shying away since 2009. They may jump back in the market after a severe correction believing Singnal is clear.
If a retest of the lows is coming in the stock market it should start tomorrow.
If this had been a secular bear and not a cyclical one, I would be more inclined to agree with Gary that we should see more bankruptcies before the market turns. Plenty of zombie juniors will go away anyway, in due time, as those deploying new money will be selective. This bear has done a very good job at destroying bullish sentiment, in my opinion.
The volume in gold last Wednesday was the largest in 15 months.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$GOLD&p=D&yr=2&mn=0&dy=0&id=p06297668342&a=372276343
Thanks Matthew.
I have to agree with you.
Bear-to-date, silver looks great:
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SILVER&p=D&yr=6&mn=4&dy=0&id=p51225059263&a=368559457
Silver looks great. Sure it does. But you ALWAYS say silver looks great no matter what it is doing. You are THE WORST ANALYST of any I have read outside of your favorite website KWN.
You know that stopped clock saying? That’s you. A stopped clock. One day you will be right and I am sure you will get all cocked up and start parading around around with your tail in the air like a dog with a biscuit but for the last couple years you just sounded like a broken record.
silver looks great………
silver looks great………
silver looks great………
And all who heard your blather and bought are broke now.
Wrong. You will never find a comment from me saying that I am a buyer when it is overbought or has rallied substantially.
You won’t see comments from me like this one either:
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$GOLD&p=D&yr=1&mn=6&dy=0&id=p03087551085&a=362646998&listNum=1
Oh yeah, that’s right….you ARE NOT A BUYER!!!!! HA Ha Ha Ha Ha!!!!!! ๐ ๐ ๐
I’ve been a buyer of miners and silver but not gold. You, on the other hand, never buy anything.
And Matthew, are you referring to me?
COOL TIME WILL TELL ! https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8JbsdNzBBww
Matthew, we have similar strategy exception you are willing to take more risk. I even sold some silver ETF a few days ago and end up buying some First Majestic Silver a few days later . I saw you sold some winners too.
Thanks Franky!
Cool BOYS BIRDMAN ! CAREFUL ! https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1vCHJNz7-ag
THANK U Birdman !
Bird ….Here’s a wager for you …..I will bet you one ounce of silver that , silver will be up on todays price & the US dollar will be lower than todays price………………….
On the 19th of may 2015…….What say you.
Not sure what the meaning of that comment is, Bird!
No Al, I am referring to our feathered joker, Birdman.
Thanks man!
I have plenty of gold, but it would be very nice if you didn’t talk to me. Thanks.
Only broke if they sold Bird…….Those with patience will profit in spite of your blather…….
The previous comment should be 11 spaces up….
Stop screwing up the thread Gator! ๐
Yuppers (This means a happy yes; I agree). If silver breaks to the upside, it will be fast and constant. We have that multi-decade cup-and-handle to complete. If it falters, I will be very sad.
I wish that I understood technicals better, Brian!
Gary could be right. This whole scenario might play out the way he says; but one year is a long way out. A lot things can change during that timeframe that could push gold higher, thus avoiding the bankruptcies/ wash out that Gary is waiting for. Nobody has a crystal ball that can predict the future. Just buy the physical metal and forget about it; and trade the miners for short term profits if that is your style.
Agreed but you may have many baggers playing stocks as long as you can afford it.
Since I am not a speculator (gambler), I am mostly in physical and physical ETF with a little bit shares. I know I may miss a fat meal but I knowthat a retail investor is weak.
Chris,
That is exactly my personal philosophy.
Chris,
And I’ll be the first one to change my stance if gold can make a higher intermediate high and reverse the down trend. That will require gold to rally above $1347.
Don’t buy my head off but… an EW chap I know reckons the DOW will fall 13% by Friday.
Just saying. Time will tell whether it is a brilliant call or just another ludicrous one.
buy = bite
Bob,
13% by Friday? Now that is an interesting call!
He also thinks that miners will make a new low also… but that is a given if the DOW falls 13% and margin calls are made.
Time will tell.
Thanks Bob,
I find his thoughts to be interesting. I personally believe that this could happen at absolutely any time!
To continue to declare that the top in stocks won’t happen Until the NASDAQ hits 5000 is ludicrous. Those who follow this advice will be slaughtered.
James,
Weren’t you the one telling me I was out of touch with reality last Wednesday?
Now 4 days later the S&P is 80 points higher.
Only 1,015 more to go. Gary, there is a long road ahead with, for certain, many unforeseen hurdles. Do not see it happening but could definitely be wrong. IBM was another jab at the overall markets. Netflix jab, Walmart jab, IBM jab. Who will land the left hook. Could it could be China tomorrow. That could be a sledgehammer. Maybe it will change the momentum temporarily if China surprises on the positive side.
meant 115
Good point Gary. There is possibility of final wash out. I have some capital waiting for that but will be holding 3/4 of my position threw it. I seriously doubt it will take another year for bottom to form. Too long on the time frame IMHO but we may get FALSE BRAKE DOWN (fake out), let’s say to 1100 and sharp reversal on high volume and scream to 1400 in month or two. That is only scenario i see now on the table. I do not see 1050 being drawed down to another year.
The Dollar will be sacrificed and Gold will Soar
http://www.nextbigtrade.com/2014/10/15/the-dollar-will-be-sacrificed-and-gold-will-soar/
This isn’t 2008. Those that are expecting fireworks for the U.S. dollar if this bear market continues are in for a rude awakening. The setup for the dollar is completely opposite to what happened leading into it’s mega run in 2008. Let me explain.
The dollar was approaching a 3 year bear market heading into late 2008 as the stock market was beginning to crash. And the bears were out in full force proclaiming the death of the dollar right at the bottom. Being a dollar bull at that time in 2008 was totally contrarian after a 6 year overall bear market in the dollar, but it was the exactly right position to take.
This time the dollar has been going up for 3+ years, and is actually late in a cyclical bull market and ready for a top. Sentiment is dollar bullish now after the dollar has not made a major new low for 6 years since 2008. Discussion of King Dollar being back has been all over the Internet recently when it made a big surge higher. In reality it’s more likely the dollar is overdue for a major top and could be headed for a new bear market shortly.
Some might say that the big surge higher in the dollar recently is proof that the dollar is ready for a new bull market. The problem with that narrative though is the fact that markets tend to make false moves before they make big trend changes, as they fool people right at the end of their move. Two examples of this were what happened with gold and oil in 2007 into 2008 as the stock market transitioned into a bear market.
Gold and oil actually bucked the trend of the stock market and went higher into 2008 as stocks had already topped. And they didn’t just make minor moves higher, they made big moves higher with oil making a crazy parabolic spike higher right before stocks got crushed. So there is precedent for extreme false moves right before bear markets begin and I think it’s quite possible what we just witnessed in the dollar was another example of this.
gold
oil
The story for gold right now is very similar to what happened with the dollar in 2008. Everyone is bearish at the bottom after a 3+ year cyclical bear market, and nobody expects a major move higher. Market participants are actually positioned for the exact opposite thing to occur in a big way. Small speculators in the futures markets were recently the most net short they’ve been of gold in the last 13 years! Gold is actually overdue to start a bull market and take everyone by surprise just like the dollar did in 2008.
I’m betting on totally the opposite stewie.
If you think the FED has won, sell your gold. If you think they’re losing, still, one hundred years later, buy.
No I never said you were out of touch with reality.cyou must be confusing me with some one else.
But whoever said it I agree with
Gary sounds about like my last news letter from Larry Edelson. because of the meltdown of Europe and the war cycles.
Keep an eye on Sweden for a black swan this week. NATO is sending a lot of assets to the Baltic. Lots of naval assets already in the region.
They might not be hunting for a sub. Rather they could be sitting upon a sub.
Thanks for that information Bob.
Input from people like you is one of the things that make this site valuable!
Bird….I am still waiting for a reply to my wager.
Get away, Tony. I know better than to bet with the Irish. I was married to one once!
Funny, the bird can’t put up OR shut up. Lol…
I thought you didn’t wanna talk to me anymore silver boy?
What is the wager? I never pass up an opportunity to make a wager.
As long as I have value and edge.
Not sure about the one with Mr. Irish.
My wager was back in 2013 and Bird said, in essence, that “The Fat Lady Had Not Sung Yet!”
I assumed that our wager was shorter term than that, but I am still very confident!
AL…..That’s why I put a clear date on mine.
James…..see above.
Good evening guys,
I said it few days ago, these miners are not responding I urge caution to all.. I may be wrong but i rather play it safe. My past experience/indicators I follow are telling me gold/miners will roll over one last time and hard.
This is a classic weak response from the miners that simply are telling you there is much more weakness to come. The pain has been long for over three years. That we can’t deny. Although we would all like to believe the storm is over, the smell,charts and past experience tell me it is a trap. Forget what may come, but remember the past pain. A leaning lesson from this glen is wait for that last capitulation that will come. This daily cycle gold bottom is very weak and will turn and flock home with the rest of the ducks. If one is so confident put 50% to work and see what happens. I’d place caution and would not invest the remainder 50% until 1000 gold is broken. If my original triple bottom at 1179/1180 holds which was 3 points of the low and beat james target of 1212.80 bottom holds then this will be one to remember. However as a man of my word, i backed off the triple bottom even though matthew is my witness and said it would break.
Caution to all..
This glen is on the sidelines.
Keep in mind that everyone & their great grandma-ma think that where miners go, the metals are sure to follow. There’s an expression: ‘when everyone is thinking the same thing, no one is thinking.’ So for all those who view themselves solely as outta-the-box thinkers, they may wish to continually take a fresh look at the company they keep in their box.
I think that it is the other way around, Bruce. At least it is in my mind.
Take the conventional and non-conventional charting and toss it out the window for a little while. Gold is about to get hammered. My best guess would be a bottom around 567 or there about. Bold prediction ( I know ) metals won’t stay down long enough to affect the miners much. Its about to get really fun in the markets!
Gold stocks you are concerned with are US (and Canada) ONLY and for investment purpose ONLY. It also reflects the operational loss by the miners resulted from relative gold price. Its movement depends on investment sentiment in US and Canada and has different fundamentals with gold itself. Gold is purchased throughout the whole world mostly for consumption and for investment in a smaller part. US is a small gold consumer and net exporter. It is not the largest gold producer either. Do you think Indian and Chinese mother in laws will take the gold chains back from their daughter in lawsโ neck and capitulate? No chance. They may have to buy more to make their daughter in laws happy. To believe that a little sector, the gold stocks in US, will drive the gold market is to put cart before the horse IMHO. It sometimes has a correlation but it is not a necessary condition. US centric investment is becoming more and more irrelevant especially for gold.