The Doctor is Finally In
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Definitely is short and cut off. 🙂
I’ll briefly recap. Many of the technicals seem to be saying we’re going to have a pullback on gold very soon—–in fact, I wouldn’t be surprised if it begins tomorrow. The PM stocks also appear to be warning us this. With the impending pullback and bottom to the pullback, It’ll probably be the time to purchase PM stocks which should bounce. Now, whether this bounce is just that or whether the stocks will move lower yet is anybody’s guess. However, if the gold bottom is really in, then the stocks should have seen their lows. However, time along with TA should let us know when we get the next run in the PM stocks. I believe we’re getting close with the next sell-off in gold. As far as the conventional market is concerned, the technicals are shouting that we have more volatility left in the conventional markets—-and I can guarantee you the volatility is not going to be on the greed end of the spectrum. It will be fear once again. This market based on a number of technicals is now saying we ‘re topping out for the bear market coming our way. November will be a very telling month for the conventional markets. Risk now far exceeds reward in the conventional markets. Why would one keep significant amounts of money in a market that is very long in the tooth and potentially can only reward you a maximum of 3-4% a year versus the possibility of a drop over the next 11/2 year of anywhere from 30-50%? And that is the potential choice facing investors today. Now, many will continue to believe that the Fed has their back as related to the conventional markets. However, there are rare absolutes in life and I believe there can be a point in time where that no longer applies.
RICHARD
I have been doing a little reading on patterns. It seems to me that gold is displaying a triple-bottom pattern. From what I have read, this pattern is a VERY strong reversal pattern (once it has broken though the confirmation point ~ 1400). With the very sharp bounce off the third bottom, why would you predict that gold would return to near this bottom (1200-ish) again.
I guess my proposed scenario would be: Gold continues it’s steady climb, with small 1-2% re-tracements, until the confirmation point (1400 area), then a break through this point. This would be followed by a re-test of 1400, then onto at least 1600. I know I am a novice, but I’m wondering what you think of the probability of this scenario?
Brian
Brian, your scenario is a possibility but I agree with Gary on this one that you need a move down yet to satisfy a daily low—–out of curiosity, I’ve been adding his cycle theory to validate the technicals I watch. I’m going to do this for awhile to see if it sharpens my TA even more. It would still fit your scenario of a 2% retracement—-or very close to that %.
I’m going to disagree with Doc on the stock market. Bubbles don’t top in an environment of great fear. They top with extreme euphoria. If this was the beginning of a new bear market then the intermediate correction we just experienced should have created very little fear. Instead we saw multi decade bearish extremes in many sentiment indicators. That is not a sign of a complacent market. And new bear markets should exhibit extreme complacency.
I would also disagree that the potential is only 3-4%. If this is a bubble like I think it is, then the final bubble phase can deliver spectacular returns. The Nasdaq rallied 37% in just the last month and a half before the bubble popped in 2000. Oil 50% in the last 3 months. Silver 50% in the last 3 months.
I think the risk is that the Fed may be creating another 1998. In 98 Greenspan bailed out LTCM and confirmed that they would not allow the market to go down (the Greenspan put). That was the signal to the market that risk no longer applied and it triggered the final bubble phase as everyone piled into the market with the guarantee that the Fed would stop any decline. Ultimately it led to a huge parabolic move that the Fed was powerless to stop from collapsing.
If the market quickly runs back up to the recent highs it’s going to again send the signal that risk doesn’t apply in today’s market and it will give the green light for the bubble phase to begin.
Either that or we get a megaphone topping pattern, but I don’t think there is much chance that the market made a final top in Sept.
DOC
I was wondering other many analysts say that conventional market is resembling
over 1929 type crash. what would think of that and your next 3 months prediction
based on your charts telling high and low on DOW. thank you.
It’s very possible for a depression type of crash but from my view not to that extreme. If you look at a 25 year MA for the Dow (you read that right; 25 year moving average), the odds are not that great. I recoil at giving a 3 month prediction since that involves total guess work to me and would compromise my credibility. Once a verifiable technical move down unfolds, then an educated technical guess has a better chance of being at least close to reality. When that time comes, I’ll attempt to give you an answer. Interestingly, the third and fourth year of a presidency is usually pretty positive for the conventional markets. I believe it won’t happen this time.
Doc.
I am not really familiar with such as MACD,RSI. etc. whenever you telling us in podcast. would you put some charts for us so we can understand better.
also, recommanding technical books for starters or beginners.
Billy, in the future (in our newsletter), I’m hoping to put charts in and then possibly having some type of e-mail forum for a question and answer (back and forth) dialogue.
Doc’s commentary cut off midstream ?
Obviously Big Al is now wielding his power as part of golds manipulation cartel.
LOL 🙂
It appears Al has gone over to the dark side.
When Al starts urging us to get a flu shot and to drink fluoridated water, you will know he has become one of the pod people.
1250 and 17.5 level is defended seriously. We just had a stop running.
However, facing the fast growing demand from China , India and Russia, this kind of defence only buys some time with heavy price to pay.
news.goldseek.com/GoldSeek/1413979380.php
This site seems not allowing link any longer.
How can any of the predictions mentioned above have any credibility in a heavily manipulated market? Nothing makes sense!
Manipulations don’t and cannot end well!
Well,,,,,The passing of Hunt today at 88yrs. old marks something in history. What it is, who knows………..other than time passes quickly………
Of course Jerry! That explains todays 2% drop in silver.
A FINAL SALUTE …..to one who exposed the govt. and fed,,,but, who’s action was not enough to turn the tide of an uneducated populace who’s destruction is at hand.
Gold taking a rest…………….no problem…..mid week break………..It did punch through 1250……….which is good…………
It rose above 1250 long enough to allow Gary to put a stop under it and then flush him out.
Gold is now correcting. My patience and sidelines stance is working out. I find it very strange how others don’t see the clear picture in front of them. Miners did not move with gold and that was a clear conformation they were headed back down. Down we go into fomc.
Wti oil will take a rest and resume down towards 78 target before final reversal and in garys words an intermediate bottom.
I wouldn’t get too excited about gold just yet. It is simply at an area where bears should take a stand and those who bought the lows might trim their positions a little.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=GLD&p=W&yr=1&mn=3&dy=0&id=p08245631885&a=364606977&listNum=1
If oil breaks below 78 then look out.. That would signal a top in equities and serious crash coming.
Miners are collapsing. Hope they all die out
Hi Al,
Was looking forward to hearing doc today. This interview got cut short at 1 minute 22. Hope you can put out the rest of the interview.
Thx