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Stay Nimble My Friends!

Big Al
October 23, 2014

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Discussion
37 Comments
    Oct 23, 2014 23:15 AM

    Is it me or does Doc say weak for 2 weeks every interview?

      Oct 23, 2014 23:29 AM

      You’re correct, Duke, since the technicals currently are not playing consistently. However, I’ll let you know when I feel it’s about to turn in my view when I strongly say I’m buying. I’ve recently incorporated some of cycle theory into my own variables of TA to see if I can become even more precise. That’s why I’ve pushed out the “2 weeks” consistently in the recent past. I’ll apologize for the droning on about 2 weeks and in the future say “we have a little further to go”——the reason it gets pushed out too is if the momentum indicators continue to move south and don’t show a turning point.

        Oct 23, 2014 23:40 PM

        This week is the week you were calling for last week or the week before. The name of game is range bound.

      Oct 23, 2014 23:11 PM

      weak for a couple of weeks.

      Oct 23, 2014 23:44 PM

      Yes doc has tendency to say that so id pay attention to detail. Only the man knows when he is ready. Any professional trader/investor always comes down to that gut/impulsive move and doc is not quite there. I know he is not because we think alike. Very soon. He will let you know.

    cmc
    Oct 23, 2014 23:42 AM

    I’m staying nibble, Doc. But, I’m getting impatient too. Thanks man.

    Oct 23, 2014 23:44 AM

    Hey Doc, I really appreciate the honesty (especially after my smartass comment). I can certainly see your point and agree with you. This is a tough market to call with a long drawn out bottom and everyone has short memories when it comes to their missed calls. Very refreshing to see and thank you.

      Oct 23, 2014 23:15 PM

      Thanks, Duke; I just want you and others to know I attempt to remain as objective as I can—-sometimes that means I have to reverse course. Also, I put my money where my mouth is—-and you’re correct about this market being tough to call. Sometimes I can take a position very strongly. This one is trying my patience. I can just sniff the bottom but as yet it hasn’t been verified. My only concern is that we get a bounce and then we settle back into the morass. However, if we take a position early in the bounce, at least folks can make some short term profits.

        Oct 23, 2014 23:22 PM

        What is interesting to me is that this sharp drop in gold today was unable to cause either GDX or GDXJ to break down below its major support level. So this may well be the play for next week if it starts moving.

          Oct 23, 2014 23:19 PM

          Bird, you’re right on about your thoughts—-the price action of both is very positive. That’s why I mentioned that as gold rose the last 2-3 weeks, PM stocks weren’t supportive. Now that gold is starting to sell off, the stocks aren’t flinching much to the downside. In my view, that’s very positive and could signal a bottoming and buying opportunity in the near future.

            Oct 23, 2014 23:26 PM

            Excellent point Richard. I like how you tied those ideas together.

            Oct 23, 2014 23:20 PM

            Doc, please don’t encourage this guy!

            Oct 23, 2014 23:50 PM

            Not yet Richard! I had a clear sell signal triggered today and its very reliable. The miners are heading lower at least till fomc and maybe until after elections. Im very confident on that as two of my major holdings broke very long time support and they are considered mid cap. We are headed down. 168 minimum target for hui..

          Oct 23, 2014 23:48 PM

          Bird,

          Im confused. Moving up or down? Gdxj has a date with 52 week low at the very minimum before any higher move can be established. That’s what my indicators have said for awhile. The traders keep fighting it like today and they want traders/investors to believe the turn is here but it aint happening yet. They will get gdxj down to 52 week low. Just like i’ve been telling you about wti oil at 78 for quite sometime. 🙂

    Oct 23, 2014 23:43 PM

    Doc,
    Which precious metal, pray tell, was acting so well that you pulled the trigger and bought???

      Oct 23, 2014 23:17 PM

      Aida; this is not investment advice. I purchased Thompson Creek (TC). The company mines both molybdenum and gold. They have a large debt position and recently the street changed their rating from hold to sell. However, Moody’s upgraded their ratings in September. They evidently are going to shut down their molybdenum mining operations the first of the year due to declining prices. Zack’s now puts it at a buy. Their large mine, Mt. Milligan (gold/copper) has finally come on line with their two other mines. They’re currently ramping up production for the next few quarters. The technicals on a short term basis look positive. As always, if the technicals turn and the stock heads lower, I’ll not hesitate to sell and purchase at a lower price.

    Oct 23, 2014 23:44 PM

    that should read precious metal stock

    Oct 23, 2014 23:34 PM

    GDXJ popped about $1.50 after I bought it this morning. Intraday volume was positive.
    I think gold and gold stocks will hold up well against weak commodities. The CRB is in a major secular downtrend vs gold and the two year counter trend move is ending. From a financial standpoint, gold is not a commodity.
    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$CRB:$GOLD&p=M&st=1981-09-07&en=today&id=p36822789546&a=370277015

      Oct 23, 2014 23:33 PM

      Nice chart Matthew, looks like a reverse head and shoulder forming.
      Am I right in thinking that falling commodities and a rising ,or at least a stable gold price,
      Is very good for gold miners. If so maybe good times are close for Gold stock investors.

        Oct 23, 2014 23:47 PM

        Sorry Matthew, I meant a head and shoulder forming in the last year.

        Oct 23, 2014 23:22 PM

        Hi Ian, yes, you are right that the scenario you described is very good for gold miners. When gold is outperforming commodities, its real price is rising, and miners are becoming more profitable.
        Today, Gary said: “No matter how hard I squint I can’t find anything bullish about this sector yet.” —-
        I am surprised by that comment. I see plenty that is bullish about the sector, even technically.

      Oct 23, 2014 23:50 PM

      did you sell?

        Oct 23, 2014 23:22 PM

        No, I see more upside.

    Oct 23, 2014 23:56 PM

    Is it me or does Doc say weak for 2 weeks every interview?

      Oct 23, 2014 23:25 PM

      Ok, Sally; don’t try to be funny. Doc.

      Oct 23, 2014 23:26 PM

      Yes Sally, Doc says that almost every interview. But he is trying to break the habit!

        Oct 23, 2014 23:27 PM

        He is in rehab, Bird, but don’t tell anybody!

      Oct 23, 2014 23:24 PM

      He was used to saying take 2 aspirins and call me in the morning before his investments days.

    bj
    Oct 23, 2014 23:30 PM

    I think gold is bouncing off a thick ceiling 1240-1260. There was a lot of support in that range way back when, and now gold was to work its way through it. It will probably take several attempts given all the congestion in that range..

    Oct 23, 2014 23:10 PM

    Thanks Doc and others, fascinating times indeed. Any thoughts on the Uranium stocks?
    Sample; Uranium Participation Corp.

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=u.to

    Oct 23, 2014 23:45 PM

    Richard, did you perhaps purchase Hecla today?

      Oct 23, 2014 23:57 PM

      DT, I bought some just recently—–am waiting to buy some more. Here’s the dilemma—the low back in 2009 was about 1 dollar; it now is about 2.30. However, I don’t think there’s much downside risk now since It’s sitting right on the monthly bollinger band. If we get the move up in the PM stocks that I’m expecting in the near future, HL should rise with the rest. If we have a 2 month or more up move in the PMs, HL could then move down to double bottom at 1. In other words, it’s probably good for at least a trade if we get a move up for all the PM stocks.

        Oct 23, 2014 23:39 PM

        Thanks Richard for the reply.

    Oct 23, 2014 23:27 PM

    Doc do you think oil will head toward 70 or does it look like it is being supported by the authorities to keep the stock rally going? The daily chart shows such a steep drop and then a sudden roadblock at 80. I would like to get back into Transocean as I panicked and sold Monday before the rally when oil was falling but the stock bounced back up.

      Oct 23, 2014 23:23 PM

      Paul, technically, oil still currently looks at risk. I wouldn’t be surprised if oil heads for 75. Transocean is really interesting technically right now. The daily chart looks like RIG could be bottoming and the volume has picked up. The weekly chart looks like the stock may be turning. It could trade sideways for awhile and then the 50 day MA is coming down to intersect pricing. That should tell the story.

    Oct 28, 2014 28:56 PM

    Doc gold will turn positive by breaching the 1236 and negative by breaking 1215.At the moment it is neutral.Me too.I am on the sidelines waiting for further development.If it turns positive then target range is 1269-1283 and if negative ultimate target will be 930-940 which will come in 3 waves (intermediate wave 3,4 and 5).I am assuming that primary wave 1 equals primary wave 5 i.e. 388