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Week ending comments from Doc

October 24, 2014

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34 Comments
    Oct 24, 2014 24:33 AM

    Happy Baby day to your wife AL ! https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aj_0q0sFgoU

    Oct 24, 2014 24:08 AM

    DOC, we are above 38,2% fibonacci level on Gold and the is very healthy. We had just a correction here. What do you think?

      Oct 24, 2014 24:20 AM

      I agree. There’s probably a little more to go on the downside but I’ll know next week if it’s going to be minimal or significant. I believe it’s minimal. We’ll see.

    Oct 24, 2014 24:08 AM

    Great interview. Next week is shaping up to be one hell of a week. Here is one story that story that everyone should be paying attention to: http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/10/24/us-eu-banks-idUSKCN0ID1OI20141024

    Should add some fireworks in the near future….

    Oct 24, 2014 24:42 AM

    Doc – does this mean the end of the 2 weeks is here? just joshing… You are one of very few I follow these days and you are only on Big Al’s site. Honest and straightforward, never any BS – rare commodities these days. Have a great weekend all.

      Oct 24, 2014 24:50 AM

      Duke, you noticed I bit my tongue today and didn’t even mention 2 weeks. However, I almost said 14 days instead. Have a great weekend. Doc.

        Oct 24, 2014 24:09 PM

        LOL 🙂

          Oct 24, 2014 24:05 PM

          Yes Doc…I noticed that too! 🙂 Whew, close call.

    Oct 24, 2014 24:21 PM

    Doc,

    If you had to guess a turn in gold/miners would you put your money
    1) Fomc 28/29th?
    2) November 4th?
    3) Mid November?

      Oct 24, 2014 24:09 PM

      Glen, that’s a tough one. I would scratch the FOMC and pick #2 or #3. Out of those two I would lean inbetween to about November 11 to mid November. I might add that I started nibbling both yesterday and today. The reason I’m lining up with the ones I did is because I collated my technicals with some cycle theory I’ve been learning. I do believe though that gold might see its’ bottom prior to potential lift off of the miners.

        Oct 25, 2014 25:05 AM

        Rich,

        Thanks i agree as well. I will personally wait at the very minimum to after fomc.

    Oct 24, 2014 24:25 PM

    Franky. I guess we got what you were saying. Happy birthday.

    bj
    Oct 24, 2014 24:32 PM

    Agree with Al about being nimble. If you’re going to be in this market, you have to be a day trader (more likely, in and out often on an hourly basis). This is a computer driven market moved by large ‘banks’ and hedge funds. Private investors were eaten alive as honest investing became an ever distant memory. As for me, it’s too much brain damage to try to swim with the sharks. The Fed and the ‘regulators’ were worried about market liquidity when they should’ve been worried about market integrity–but what profit was there i n that?

    Oct 24, 2014 24:33 PM

    Seems Bo is being held to a different standard.

    I think it’s high time the three musketeers get more specific, less ambiguous and declare both price and time.

    For example on Friday September 19th on Gary’s interview I declared very plainly without hedging…

    1. On September 19, 2014 at 1:48 pm,
    James (the lesser) says:
    On Friday September 19th,2014 shortly after 12:30pm eastern standard time the GOLD MARKET BOTTOMED AT $1212.80

    I laid it on the line and I will live or die by that statement.

    No “if then” or “maybe so” or “possible perhaps”…
    So far I have been right on.

    I have plenty of skin in the game.

    Let’s not play semantics.

    There is a difference between changing ones mind and simply playing Monday morning quarterbacking.

    Yes it is ok to change your mind, it is quite another to change your playbook.

    Am I being a grouse – no I don’t think so.

    Too much money is on the line.

    I stated I completely agree with Bo regarding a bottom.
    I never stated what and when and if the top will be.

    I do not have the pulpit here, I am an anonymous contributor. You can take my opinions for what they are worth.

    Those who have the microphone should be held to a higher standard. They are influencing people.

    Also everyone here is “dirty” None of us have been right 100% of the time.

    People are questioning Bo’s background. People are saying he has been wrong in the past.

    I have never once heard Al or Cory say Doc, Rick or Gary have ever been wrong, when in fact they have.

    The fact that they have been wrong is not the issue; again we have all been wrong.

    But to never say “you were wrong on that call” is the issue.

    I say start making more exact calls and keep a scorecard.
    If you have no play that’s ok, your call will simply be “no play”

    You don’t have to be in every hand.

    I come from a different background.
    I walked to the window. I plunked my 2k or 20k down and I lived and died by my decision.
    No hedging, no beating around the bush. No playing both ends against the middle.
    Never took or gave recommendations. Didn’t have to.

    Oct 24, 2014 24:58 PM

    Hello Doc. What do you forsee for GDXJ while gold is heading to higher low as you expect? It’s been acting badly. Do you expect lower low for gdxj or do you expect sharp reversal for gdxj. Can’t have it both ways i guess. ???
    Have a good weekend everyone

      Oct 24, 2014 24:17 PM

      Stewie, all I know is I plan on purchasing both GDXJ and GDX in the very near future . I’ll make a statement when I do. That of course doesn’t apply if there appears to be a sudden breakdown in both—-which I don’t expect.

        Oct 24, 2014 24:37 PM

        Thank you Doc. Miners are not acting like gold has bottomed. So maybe Gary and I will be right that we will get marginal lower low maybe 1165 and scream higher to 1400 from there on short covering. Miners should not be testing it’s lows like that imo. Dunno.

    Oct 24, 2014 24:01 PM

    Now let me be the one to take up the gauntlet…

    I am ok with the price action in gold this week. I am far from ecstatic.

    I minor pullback, which this was, is completely reasonable and favorable.

    What I didn’t like was the way it shot past $1250 and came down off it rather easily.

    So the bottom line is we are doing ok.

    I think the pessimism is still high, so that is a good thing. It accentuates what really is just a minor move.

    If this were 2010 or 2011 pre top I would be happy with this price action, but today, after 3 years of down, the same price action doesn’t look so good. Keep this in mind.

    My play is the same.
    We have a bottom at 1212.80 give or take 10 bucks, Al’s fateful words.
    I believe there is a strong bid at that level.

    Regarding moving up – no play.

    The market has been so devastated and broken there is no telling when we will ever see those lofty tops again.

    I’ve said all along $1340 was my key price level.
    It has yet to successfully take this out and test and hold it.

    Until it does there is no play.

    Also stocks are still calling the shots.

    I have no play regarding which direction stocks are going at this juncture.

    Oct 24, 2014 24:43 PM

    Just to play devil’s advocate regarding Doc’s comments on the VIX, it is worth pointing out that elevated volatility (20-40 range) started in 1998 and pretty much stayed in that range, if memory serves during the entire 2000-2002 bear market. Had you sold in 1998, you would have missed a large move higher, even as there was a top 2 years later. Put differently, I’m not sure increased volatility is useful for calling an immediate top.

    Oct 24, 2014 24:51 PM

    I couldn’t find the bottom with both hands 😉

    Oct 24, 2014 24:40 PM

    What would happen if the stock market blasted off in a huge way next week? Biggest move up in years. ( I’m pretty sure it will ) And then gold takes large drops every day next week. ( I think it will ) the pundants on CNBC will be screaming that investors holding gold are selling and going into stocks, when in fact that will not be the case at all. It’s just like they said that crude oil went down in price because of a glutton of crude hit the market. I can tell you now it was false. The price of crude came down because of the speculation , regulators made them do it! I work with crude sellers and refiners, there is no glutton of crude. And when gold drops, it won’t be that investors ( maybe a few ) are selling to go in stocks. The point I’m trying to make is, they hide the ball and have investors look at the shiny ball. When the crush happens to gold, it will bounce right back up. But it will scare most out of the market. Only to get their asses handed to them in stocks next year. The truth is, that there should be a lot of gold hitting the market soon.

    Oct 24, 2014 24:13 PM

    Charts tee for three yearsxthenstock market has been blasting off as you put it and gold has been going down, I watch CNBC almost everyday. They never once said people are selling gold and going into stocks. They hate and trash gold, but they never frame it that way. Oil came down because the Saudis cut a deal with Putin.cit clearly not a natural move down. The true gold Bulls (bugs) are not going to get scared out of the market.
    The people who got in late and don’t understand gold are already out. No one on this site is stupid enough to believe what CNBC says.
    I told you – start your own blog.

    Oct 24, 2014 24:17 PM

    Read my above post…if you want to make ax a,e for yourself than call it.
    Let’s not have “want if” and “I think it will”
    Call what stocks will do next week and what gold will do next week.
    If you are right,great call, if you are wrong change your name and try again

      Oct 24, 2014 24:25 PM

      James (the lesser) says:
      “if you are wrong change your name and try again”
      —————————————————————————-

      Ha ha ha….that made me laugh James.

    Oct 24, 2014 24:18 PM

    Doc.
    Question, if conventional market gets volatility then gold stocks will go down with them. would you wait for market settle down before you purchase gold stocks or
    doesn’s matters? A-ha also you were mentioning about vix monthly chart first time ever. how do you see it now?

      Oct 24, 2014 24:16 PM

      Billy; I don’t necessarily see gold stocks going down with conventional market volatility. A lot of these stocks seem to be entering a sideways trading with bollinger bands turning sideways. We’ll evdntually have a break one way or another. I’ve started purchasing at the lower end of the bollinger bands. If the stocks break lower, then we’re in for some further pain. I feel the odds are we break higher especially if James is correct in his assessment we’ve seen the lows in gold—-which in my view is a good possibility based on cycle theory and the charts. Not only that but silver looks exhausted on the low side and I can’t really see silver breaking much lower from a technical standpoint. If silver doesn’t, l don’t see how gold can appreciably break lower. The monthly vix has settled down but the MACD continues to be moving up (albeit slowly). Also, the strength indicators for a bullish vix continues to move slowly up. If these 2 indicators continue in this matter, it doesn’t bode well for volatility and the conventional markets.

    Oct 24, 2014 24:18 PM

    How do you quantify “pretty sure?”

    Oct 24, 2014 24:32 PM

    Pretty sure means “if” the new platforms are open Monday. Stocks blast off. And gold will get hammered, but not cause stocks took off.

    Oct 25, 2014 25:47 AM

    Doc.
    According to the charts, do we have an upside exchaustion yet for the conventional market? trying to short. thank you always.

      Oct 25, 2014 25:46 AM

      Billy, as mentioned, there is more volatility in the wings and that doesn’t bode well for the conventional markets. The momentum indicators on the weekly show that you might move a little higher next week (if you’re lucky) then the following week could be problematic if they maintain their architecture. I believe if next week starts out with small gains for the conventional markets, it will be telling you it’s getting tired.