Don’t expect any surprises out of the FOMC today
Click download link to listen on this device: Download Show
Click here to visit Rick’s website for a free look at his US Dollar tout.
It’s getting harder to squeeze that reaction from Wall Street’s useful idiots, Peter. Anyway, I’ll stick with my prediction on the question of when the Fed will raise rates. Answer: Never. I may be wrong about this eventually, but my winning streak already extends back to 2004; and to the 1980s before that.
I’m buying warrants and GDXJ calls right now.
I’ve been looking for a bounce from exactly 25.79, Matthew — but just a bounce, since the weekly chart suggests GDXJ could fall to 20.31 before this bear market has run its course.
Wow. Thank you!
No surprise here. Clear as day.
Now we see the fallout.
Could be lookout below for gold
Why would gold major trouble. QE did nothing for gold. I think the argument is stonger for post-QE being good for gold. People will abandon inflated sectors and jump into deflated sectors (maybe gold).
Agreed on the post-QE.
Also agree.
QE is just a public relations hoax, so its termination isn’t likely to have an effect on anything — including mortgage rates that are headed below 2.5%.
That is one expensive bit of PR. (;-)
Do you see oil spiking as Gary and Charles Nenner research do? Last Friday Gary saw it going to $97-100 and Nenner to as high as $110…What do you think?
If the dollar stays strong then no.
With slowing demand no
They are doing everything they can to hold the line in the sand, which is 80
They will fight tooth and nail for that level
I don’t see policy at work here, James, just a Hidden Pivot support at 80.02, basis November Crude, that precisely caught the recent low. More generically, we’ve got a shaky bottom near the lows of a range that has contained crude prices for five years. I doubt that it will hold. If not, brace for a fall to at least 58.45. So much for America’s energy boom.
I appreciate that Rick…I’m curious about alibaba too …@$98 2 weeks ago at 85! Analysts are saying 112-120
BABA-hype has turned me off to the stock, PC. I see all Chinese businesses as inherently corrupt and don’t think this one deserves to be compared to legitimate vendors like AMZN and eBay. Yeah, I know, the stock is going to $1000 without me. But I just don’t want to be holding BABA shares when it’s reported that hundreds of infants have died from ingesting baby formula purchased on the site.
Call it died in the wool or whatever; I just don’t see how they can turn the economy around, they are fighting a rear guard action like Napoleon did when he went into Russia with 365,000 men and returned to France with 18,000 soldiers left. Then came imprisonment, escape, and the final battle at Waterloo, the tide has turned the debt can’t be paid and they can’t reverse things as I see them. I am resolute in this belief.
1050 here we come.
Honest question- How did you come up with that number?
I think he is going with the Goldman projection for gold.
Goldman Saks forecast.
Sorry keylime didn’t see you already answered that question.
Wow….that was weird. 7/10ths of a cent vertical move in the dollar. Wow. Good call on the dollar Rick.
That’s what deflation is all about, Birdman. Europe’s slide into recession/depression isn’t exactly bad news for the dollar.
Rick, what happens if agricultural commodities start falling, and farmers can’t pay their bills, also how will this effect the food stamp program.
Farmers have always managed, mainly because they provide something we all must have.
Rick I commend you for going out on he limb, but you were completely wrong.
Stocks are not going Gand busters up, they are tanking.
Next time hedge your bets like the others
Using Hidden Pivot analysis, James, it’s all just impulse legs, and the hourly chart is still bullish. As for not going gang busters, and notwithstanding yesterday’s feeble performance, the rally from the October 17 low is one of the most powerful short squeezes on record. I am as bearish as the next guy, and I think the market is in a topping pattern. But I wouldn’t count the Sleazeballs out yet, and I surely wouldn’t lay even money, as you might, that new record highs will not be achieved.
FYI, I posted a 1202.10 minimum downside target for December Gold Wednesday morning with the futures trading around 1224.
And thanks again. Tomorrow will be interesting.
It’s slightly interesting that 1202.22 is the 38.2% retracement level of the move from the pre-Nixon $35 to the 2011 high.
Gold stocks sure cratered today. As for rate rises, i would not bet against it. I recall the consensus view among gold bugs was that QE will never end.
QE never did end, Karl. Companies have managed to borrow a trillion dollars to buy back their own shares — hardly a sign of “tightening” during the supposed phase-out of QE.
Got back into gdx today and out quickly and will stay out for a long time. Much easier to make money in the general market. Goldman called a target for oil around 70 to 75 which is what I have been targeting but oil bounced up sharply after a spike down. Bottom might be in but hard to tell yet.
Rick, ballsy call. Not sure why you would make the call. The markets will demand a reaction from FOMC minutes given QE is unwinding and everybody in their dog is providing an opinion on their projections post QE. There will be a reaction it is just a matter of direction and severity.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-10-29/greenspan-sees-turmoil-as-qe-boost-to-markets-unwinds.html