Wednesday’s Thoughts from Gary Savage
Click download link to listen on this device: Download Show
This was a great synopsis today from Gary. He hasn’t changed anything he has said for a while, which is consistent, but he made it clear today what direction things will play out. He also gave the exception, which was gold closing above 1183 and then rallying to a new high above 1343. I agree that scenario would be an exception, but it likely will punch through 1183 to 1050, then turn up for 2 months.
Dec tax loss selling will be another shot lower for the miners just as their terrible Q3 results are showing this week….repeat rally of last Jan would be a normal reaction
The miners showed the way as they did not pop while gold rose to $1255….big wake up call right on every miners chart
yet another buying opp coming within a bear market sure no doubt ….but I thought the bottom was in at $1525…$1400….$1300….$1200….say what!
I nearly forgot about “tax loss selling” season coming up, JJ. Thanks for bringing that to my attention. Might be a good time to play a bounce when it’s over.
I know that the magnitude of my losses are not nearly that great. Not even worth taking advantage of that this year.
Gary, simply the best! Your recent calls have been superb. Thank you for your efforts.
This a picture of bird and JJ getting ready to blow their Alpine Horn, bring them in boys, http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/roadshow/archive/201302A37.html
Welcome to 1998 when roller skates had 4 wheels, bright color clothes were hot and woman had big puffy hair, oh and gold was at $250/oz.
Barricks – ABX (the biggest gold producer in the world) is testing it’s lows not seen since 1998. ABX currently has book value of 1.1875 which is 18.75% premium to it’s cash and all assets on books. What is the value of ABX going to be at $1050 gold. p/b at 1.00? ABX will be valued at cash and assets. No multiple. Just pure cash and assets. What a insane world. I agree with Gary. It’s going lower.
Gary,
Thanks…we don’t have to guess what you’re thinking…very clear picture!
We are synchronized in our thoughts gary.I add nothing to what you have said.Well done buddy and keep up the good work.
Gary’s recent projections are looking pretty good. I hate the taste of my words. S
Whats that saying higher lows suggest bull market, well I guess lower lows is bear market
GDM lower lows last year lows 613…560 now today 512….HUI same as today is blowing out last Dec lows….150 is like a big magnet the 2008 low…Cory can’t believe you were not aware of the $SPTGD Index how can anyone own a CDN listed gold stock and not know of the index, its taken out the 2008 lows already!!……wow!
Lots of tax loss selling again this Dec…..yikes!
gary regarding stock market djia in particular I am noticing that a a megaphone pattern.A Megaphone Top aka Broadening Top is considered a bearish signal, indicating that the current uptrend may reverse to form a new downtrend.Having said that I agree with what you have said in previous interviews that a higher high is possible in stock market.The stage that we are in is the euphoric stage and target is 17500.Volatility is gonna be a huge play gary in the coming months.
Don,
I give the megaphone fairly low odds. More likely the Fed will create another bubble (they’ve been creating one after another since 2000). So probably a parabolic advance followed by a crash and very long period of grind lower before a final bottom forms.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPX&p=W&yr=18&mn=6&dy=0&id=p78087981483&a=374111083&listNum=1
Could be gary.I am staying on the watch out just the same 🙂
I am more than happy to pick up cheap shares. Over the next 20 dayd I’l pick up near freebies..
I don’t pick bottoms I buy bloodbaths
couldn’t agree more Ken as Dec tax loss selling will create great gifts as the street momentum buyers will scoop them for a decent long side trade into Q1…just like last year…rince/repeat….150 HUI here we come, yippie!!!
2 more gold bugs I know packed it in today and sold at 70% losses..
we’re getting closer.
Did they go all in in the conventional markets?
I asked my banker is many of his clients are int he market.. All I hear from everyone is that no one is in this market but rich folks and money managers.
So I went to the source.
He said EVERY CLIENT! he has is all in.
However, what is tricking every technical guys who track money flows is these folks are using their retirement accounts and manged money accounts through their bankers.
So these investments my banker says appears as institutional money…
food for thought
I even asked my neighbors
Same thing they are all in with massive leverage..
So ask around your neighborhood.
Ken, that’s consistent with my experience. I know plenty of people who aren’t “financial types” that are in —some for the last couple of years. All are complacent and very confident. Stories about the public not being in are just propaganda.
I concur Matthew, at least from what I have also been encountering among friends and acquaintances. They seem totally happy to be “all in” and think it’s all going much higher.
This kind of complacency is required during a bubble phase and can last 6 months to a year.
No disagreement there, Gary.
Stupid me, I did not realize that my defined benefit pension plan was considered to be institutional money.
I know people are referring to the December tax-loss selling season BUT…
…isn’t it possible that people will be doing that tax-loss selling now? Selling off their gold and silver miner stocks now in this downturn?
What happens then? I am not familiar with your US tax system – isn’t there a 30 day window when you cannot buy the same stock back if you wish to use it to off-set your losses?
If so, couldn’t the tax-loss selling be happening now, or about to happen, and then towards the end of November we will see the spike up that Gary is talking about as those who sell now for a tax-loss then buy back in?
Hey Gary,
You’ve been making some very good calls – kudos. I have a question about your bloodbath timeline. You mentioned a timing of 18-28 days. Are weekend days counted? Thanks in advance.
Just trading days.
And according to Gary we are in day 18 today and 19 tomorrow.
Gary one reason why I believe that gold is gonna drop more than 1050-1000 by summer of next year is because of the usd which in my opinion is gonna appreciate rather significantly in the coming years.Watch the video below.I bet you will find it interesting.
http://youtu.be/v3_6gukqdp0
Don C, there are so many variables out there now. That could certainly be one.
GOLD AND SILVER ARE BOTTOMING HERE AND NOW. MARK MY WORDS.
Dave,
Still too early. Keep waiting.
Tough day for silver down to 16.16