Friday morning views from Chris.
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1-800-Waaaaaaa
The problem is that many conventional market participants believe we are in, and have been in, a recovery. GDP did print 3.5% yesterday, right? So I think we are back to the disinflation narrative of the late 1990s. A rising dollar is not necessarily a bad thing, rather it signals huge capitals flows back into US risk markets. I know many of us were scarred and scared by 2008, but it just might be the case that quantitative easing worked– at least for the people it was supposed to, leaving aside everything else that can be said about income inequality, lackluster wage growth, etc. The gold and silver doom and gloom narrative just doesn’t make sense to most people right now– as much as many of us thought those metals had significant fundamentals going for them.
Hmmm, those nice government people know what they are doing after all.
Chris you took your eye off $YEN….very foolish as its been the #1 driver behind golds trend, not anyones opinion….Armstrong today suggests a DOW close above 17414 brings in 20-24-26000 DOW as money leaves Europe and Japan into US equities….Marty has been 100% right since Golds high…….Gold will be sub $1000 as money flows into the US and out of gold a trend since Sept 2011…OPEN YOUR EYES!!!!
And almost a year ago Al said he would be paying more attention to marty.
You’re criticizing me for missing a ONE-DAY occurrence that blindsided everyone? Before Friday, the yen had been stabilizing. Only this week, starting modestly after the Fed meeting but going nuts Friday, did it start to plunge.
I said this is the moment of truth
QE did work.
It’s job was to create a wealth effect and prop up the stock and real estate markets, which it did.
The whole memo these last few years was SELF FUFILLING PROPHESY
if we keep saying the economy is recovering, If we keep saying there is growth, if we keep saying unemployment is getting better, if we keep saying stocks are a great place to be
Then people will believe it.
IF YOU HAVE THE TRUTH POUND ON THE TRUTH
IF YOU HAVE THE FACT POUNDCONVTHE FACTS
IF YOU HAVE NEITHER POUND ON THE TABLE
Is not one of the rules of a politician – the lies sound like the truth if they are repeated forcefully over and over.
Tell a big enough lie and repeat it frequently enough and it will be believed; Let me control the text books and I will control the nation -Hitler
Just a question for all.
Since the world is facing deflationary forces faster than the central banks can monetize, what are the chances of a revaluation in the price of gold occuring overnight.
In other words, is it possible for the fed to just fix the price of gold at some arbitrary number to save the oil producing countries from a catastrophic decline?
Is this even possible?
Why would they do that?
Listen to Jim Willie on youtube…the chinese found out that the lbma was leasing out their gold…pretty much gave them 3 options…we can send the triads after you and your families, We can bring this matter to an international court, or you can ship us all the gold we want…and so the lbma ships about 1000 tonnes/month to China for the lasg 2-3 yrs…according to Jim willie of golden jackass
Don’t bet on it!
“really asses what happening” good advice indeed. Might have been good advice at gold 1800,1700,1600 etc etc.
I like Garys thinking, but aside from my own, I do think I will listen to people like Norcini and Armstrong as this gold market moves, they seem to have a much better grasp of things than kwn or “its a great time to buy” writers and bloggers.
Course “long term” gold should do as it has historicaly, issue is, long term is relative.
Brilliant.
The people that have been saying “gold down” have been Bird JJ and 1 other I forget the name.
People did everything the could to get them “thrown out”, chase them away.
Ive never understood why “betting on short” was such a sin, I wonder, if betting on short got as clear or popular with the general public, if it wouldn’t make the market just to plain obvious to be a casino?
a 50-50 bet, up or down, simple as that. Maybe it would make it too darned obvious all the research and study turns out to be no more than a 50-50 bet.
Maybe not of course, but I am told that psychology is one of if not the most important factor to the markets. hmmm
that’s correct BB! 🙂
Geez, bb, I can see why you can’t understand money if you can’t understand that the problem with those guys was NOT their opinions!
I understand money Mat, that’s actually pretty easy for most, as for “standards” or fiat etc that discussion goes round and round as all arguments can be made for all sides.
Might have something to do with 9 “schools” of thought?
I disagree. It is clear that you don’t understand money and it DEFINITELY is not easy for most.
Matt, I suggested hgd at 16.50 to a couple friends of mine, 22.77 close today.
Just as your interested about my understanding of money.
But that really doesn’t have anything to do with understanding money.
Its possible to “play” in the market and not know anything about money maybe?
Correct, recommending HGD has nothing to do with understanding money.
To be fair and balanced, they missed the rallies, too!
That is correct Matthew! 🙂
It would be nice if gold closed 1180ish. This move today is counterintuitive. Soon scared rich people will be driven into gold not because of inflation or deflation, but fear of default.
Be good point about what Al said about really assess what is happening.
Good God if you havent been assessing by now what is happening isn’t it a little late?
He says a lot of whoppers…
Let’s assess…GOLD IS BEING TAKE TO THE. WOOD SHED
And has been for quite some time lead by silver….when will they wake up?
Actually James I wonder if assessing isn’t just another word for guessing.
Gold could still go down to $400.
I know I know, not possible due to yadda yadda yadda, but that was the same thing said for the last 3 years. Is someone really going to put faith in consistently wrong thinking?
Not one person on this or any other blog knows how much PM is available.
Sprott doesn’t know and has there been anyone more intent on finding out or understanding the market?
Should gold go under $1000, the Chinese Russians india uae etc increase buying, ok, instead of 100 tons a month purchased 200 gets purchased, so, someone that owns a few thousand tons sells it to them for 6 months,a year, who knows how long, then people understand that’s the price as it drops slowly.
Im not saying it will happen, Im saying nobody of these blogs knows if it will happen.
We are just missing too much critical information to be making more than a guess.
Bring Bo Polny (Gold $2,000) back on. He simply had his charts upside down.
Yeah, I backed up the truck on that one and got run over.
Guess it’s time to try to get tht greeter job at WalMart.
I still think gold should go up though. People say there’s no inflation but everything I have to buy sure has gone up this year and not the fake gummit numbers.
Yea, I never trusted his work. He showed up one day on the Jim Sinclair site and I knew it was suspect.
From my understanding he is new on the scene and has only been doing this for 10 years or so. That is way to short of a duration to take seriously. Plus he was always selling something. That always tells me, that you can not make enough by following your own advice, so you have to advertise and sell yourself by peddling subscriptions.
If people could predict the markets with any degree of regularity why would they need to sell advice? Seems to me they would not bother.
To be honust, I think the historical performance of gold is what counts, eventually, gold should go to the level of currency printed.
At least that’s what seems to happen, how long it takes is another issue.
There is always the fall back option, for those that require just one more thing to retain a justification for owning gold, “I own it to leave to my kids.”
UNCHARTED WATERS?……………MORE LIKE A CHARTERED BOAT TO H*ll………..
Same boat that sailed in the 80’s Jer, I know I was on it. History repetes
Hello Bobby………one more big wave UP…….mania needs to come, and will come, just a matter of time.
I am still holding some $1 silver from the last time……………….
Surprise, goldCorp on TSX has turned green.
It’s always this way at bottoms. People give up. The $ will collapse someday and you’ll be sad but glad you own gold.
Not really, once we hit bottom, there is no reason it will not stay there for 20 years.
Bobby……..that only puts us at 86 yrs. young………..third times a charm……..
I’ll see you there.
I am going to ride this drop in PMs out. It can’t continue. Japan is in full meltdown. Euroland (even Germany) is in trouble. Money is flowing in to the US like heroin in to a vein. Happy times! There will be massive inflation in some things and massive deflation in other things. I think it is very scary times yet in the US many people think all is well….
Stocks in countries like Japan rise on collapsing currencies and people think this is good? Isn’t that how they got record returns in Zimbabwe?
I really don’t get it. A currency crisis is coming. Japan may be the key. It is a grand experiment that has been going on for decades yet it is doomed to fail. If people lose confidence in central planning and money printing, they will go towards what the government can’t control. The gold market is tiny. Gold will go up. How can it not?
Here are some interesting charts and comments from Mish…
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.co.nz/2014/10/nikkei-futures-up-lock-limit-yen.html
Dang, silver down to 16.10. Hard to believe it could go below 16 but that looks like where it’s headed.
In case you don’t have the time….following is an exerpt from the above link. Ask yourself, if you own a lot of yen, you have been screwed over by your government and a collapsing fiat currency, and you are looking for someplace to put your money, would you put it in gold or the USD? If 10% of people fleeing the yen decide to buy gold, what would that do?
Quote:
Japan’s government debt is over 250% of GDP. Japan’s debt is so high that an interest rate of somewhere between 2 and 3 percent will consume 100% of tax revenue.
Amusingly, the central bank wants 2% inflation and 0% bond rates. How’s that going to work?
The answer is “It’s not”.
Today’s message is clearly “get the hell out of the yen”.
Somewhere down the line, a global currency crisis awaits. I am willing to hold gold indefinitely until that happens.
Read more at http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2014/10/nikkei-futures-up-lock-limit-yen.html
I’ve been saying for months silver could go to $4
No one can fathom it
I’ve said could you ever fathom it going from $48 to $16 either?
Anything goes
History repetes they are called cycles.
How about from $4 to $48?
Silver will never go to $4………….NEVER….bank on it…………..
If there is no inflation, it could go to $4. However, the inflation just take mining cost to over $20. How can they afford to dig it out of the ground and refined it and take 85% loss. I think their cash flow will shut them down rather quickly so they would cease to exist way before reaching that price.
Most silver is considered “extra” to the miners, that’s how it can be mined for $4.
By-product is not enough, ~30% short. Price is set on margin. As for the 4$ for by product, it used to be OK and not good anymore to extract and refine the silver even as by-product. So several companies have bought out the contract from streaming companies since it could get them bankrupt. They would rather throw the staff back to the ground after they take the base metal out. At sametime, base metal production grew too much during the first decade of 2000s, it is now shrinking. The profit margin is shrinking for base metal and they may need silver to make money instead of giving it away.
Best and most important quotes THIS YEAR are …
“Just how long this thing can last.” – Big Al
“Since we’re in unchartered waters, it’s time to step back, take a deep breath, and really assess what’s going on.” – Big Al
on the bright side, energy stocks went up big ~2.5%
Uranzerz (URZ), a uranium company, went down $0.05, or -5.05% today. Exxon/Mobil (XOM) went up +$2.26, or +2.39%, and Duke Energy (DUK) went down $0.14, or -0.17%. So which energy stocks went up?
CNQ, XEG(ETF), HSE, COS, TLM, CCO, all TSX. Small ones don’t count, they are gambling. All energy stocks on my portfolio went up.
Today would be a good day to get Polny back on. How about Sinclair and Schiff? Who is under water on Phyzzzz?
I heard Bo earlier today on Jim Puplava’s Financial Sense podcast.
….and I’m still chuckling about it. 🙂
Skeeta,
Me too. At one point I swear I heard Puplava snicker at some nonsense Bo was spouting about his “cycles”. He sounds like some demented numerologist.
I’d love to hear him spin the events of today, I could use another big belly-busting laugh!
And to all you goldbugs……. I told you so.
The bull market in gold and silver is DEAD!!!
If you want to make some money in PMs, do what I did over a year ago and DUMP your gold and buy some Palladium.
Silver? Maybe when/if it drops below 15 would I consider buying some.
Platinum…. that’s anybody’s guess. I cannot, for the life of me, figure out what makes the price of that metal go up and down.
Had you dumped a year ago you would have missed the dec/january rally. The dumping should have happened three years ago.
To advice people who are long term holders to dump now is the most non sensible thing to do. You never ever dumb in a blood bath/ true capitulation like it’s happening now. The wise thing to do is add in tranches as she goes down. In a year or two you will be eating your words.
I meant dump
Wise words Glen. Just think of all the fools who ARE dumping right now. They will regret it very soon.
that boloney character sure is smart…. re gold…
Al, Alan Greenspan said: BUY GOLD!!!
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-10-29/alan-greenspan-qe-failed-help-economy-unwind-will-be-painful-buy-gold
Bo might still be right, we don’t know the affect of a yes vote in switserland.
Bo Polny put it all on the line. I respect him for that. His theory is spot on, but he missed where we are in the cycle. We should blast off in about six or seven trading days, after we get through this massive wash. Connecting the dots in the financial system is paramount while we enter this new cycle. Monopoly game board2 is about to begin!
Gary says 3-5 days!
You say 6-7 days!
I said after election!
Pony said “months ago”!
etc etc etc
The true fact is we do not know when this ship will turn around. Most of it is speculation based on what we have and study. I will be the first to say that miners/gold/silver can stay dormant and down at these prices for much longer then one would think. What if they stay down until next year? That would surely kill all remaining bugs wouldn’t it?
I know one thing i need a bounce at some point. Don’t like playing the short side and my trading account is itching to make a buy. Not yet says this glen.
Core position= All in
Trading position=Sidelines waiting for dead volume to arrive or dead bid..Getting close.
Yes, that means tons of new liquidity hitting the market!
Beaven says if we don’t hold $15. Expect ,$10.
Thinking of something nice to say.