Did oil just find its bottom after the elections?
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If this comes true, how will the goldbug whack jobs spin this as a positive
Common, original jj,
We may be enthusiastic, but we are not “whack jobs”! Remember why we occasionally but and then HOLD the metals!
Sorry Al didn’t know you were a goldbug, its all the gold gurus who pound it weekly Russia buys gold!!…so what will be the spin if they sell some gold, positive,lol
Al, when you speak to Gary next, would you be good enough to ask him whether the miner bankruptcy phase that he talked about, would equally apply to bullion in his opinion??????
Would that be, yes,no, or yes but not to the same degree/thanks/nick/
Oil spiked because an oil pipeline just exploded in Saudi Arabia…. don’t know if it is a terrorist attack. But something is going on in Saudi Arabia their currency has dropped 7% . I don’t think it is political. Go to Zerohedge this is being reported there.
Riyal has been 3.75 since June 1986.
Okay thanks David,
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Gary, I thought the same thing. You have the guts to make the call. Wait a week and see how it turns out. I am pretty nervous since several of my low ball bids in energy were triggered in the last few days.
Oils pop is due to this not the elections
and it created the $6 pop in gold as well
Aramco pipeline in KSA had an interrupted. Oil is all ready given back most of the gains. You guys are really reaching now.
Gary,
Not sold on this move. Wti is headed lower IMO and we have further to go down along with metals. Wti resistance now at 78/81
No it’s no bottom in gold. We will continue lower with another hit coming on fridays job market. Expecting ecb to also announce more easing or something of that nature. Euro will head down towards 118-119, loonie down as well, yen also down.
It’s common sense non computer generated lol..
Thanks Glenfidish,
By the way I am now a Glenmorangie drinker. Pretty good stuff!
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Don’t pay attention to the noise and all these media based sites.. It’s all noise. Wti oil has a date with lower prices.
Be patient and short it with testicular fortitude lol
That a Man glen I’ll make a short trader out of you yet, whats your fav ETF to short gold, silver and oil?
I’m not inclined to short something that has already dropped 25% with sentiment at extreme bearish levels. That’s just asking to get caught when it explodes off the bottom.
Ask all the stock market shorts who didn’t believe me either three weeks ago.
BIG difference Gary is that the US equity market is in a clear bull market, buy the dips, never short a bull, gold is in a clear bear market short and sell into rallies
Oil is down 28% from its summer highs and if the pipeline incident didn’t happen today the US$ action would have oil lower
I doubt it.
Folks look everywhere for a fundamental reason for why a turn will or won’t happen. They look everywhere except the place they need to look. Sentiment….
It’s not fundamentals that cause intermediate cycle bottoms. It’s sentiment. Just too many bears and no sellers left.
Really when has that worked in gold the last 3 bottoms in, nope!…bottom 4 in progress
JJ,
I have tried to pick a bottom in gold yet. Gold is in a bear market. Sentiment tends to hit more extreme levels during bear markets. Currently gold is at 20% bulls. It got as low as 9% bulls last year. So I would like to see sentiment drop just a little further before trying to call the bottom, and of course like I said I’m still waiting for a swing.
FWIW gasoline is at 19% bulls and oil at 30% bulls. Both of those are at levels that after triggered yearly cycle lows over the last 12 years. So if the bottom didn’t occur yesterday it should be very close.
Well lets see Gary if the ECB or US NFP creates the swing your looking for, or it moves gold even further away than that swing signal
Gary, GOOD NEWS! Maybe the botton is in! Why? I saw 117500 GLD shares bought at 110.50 and the actual price was 109.63 on the pre-market. And than another BIG one, 159819 GLD shares at 110.51 (top price until now). What do think?
When one looks at squiggly lines instead of seeing ultiple views like fndamentals one ends up looking like a gold bug inteh headlights.
Saudi Arabia caused this crash, not some mysterious technical algo. Saudis are trying to wipe the shale oil guys, Russia, Norway, Canadian oil sands and Venezuela, out with low prices. Which is about 77 bucks at cost.
I am continually amazed that people refuse to accept that maybe htere are multiple stories.
That is why I pay little attention to people who tell me the bottom is in in oil when 4 large countries could be wiped out by this low oil price..
Complete nonsense. Why would they wait till now after the sector has already had several years to build out to try and kill it?
I often wonder if people read some of the illogical things they post before they post them.
I see the same nonsense posted about Russia. Folks most of the citizens in Russia are poor. Lower oil would be a huge boon to the Russian masses, not to mention Russia survived just fine when oil was $20, $30 or $40.
This is just par for the course. At every intermediate bottom, no matter what asset, the media always concocts some idiotic excuse for why price is going down.
I hate tablets
Yeh, but Ken, they are so much easier to carry than laptops!
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Saudi pipeline explosion caused the lift today..
30 buck oil over the next 18 months is my opinion. I wouldn’t go near the stuff there is more oil than seawater…
Oilsands is gonna jack another 2 million barrels a day this year.
Shale another 2 million.
Jesus Mary Murphy there is no oil is going to 100 bucks
I googled Jesus Mary Murphy on her oil outlook and I didn’t find anything, do you have a link….ROTFLMFAO
“Oilsands is gonna jack another 2 million barrels a day this year.”
Is that over and above current output or is that total output?
Do we have any more large scale project in Alberta? I thought the projects are either done or put on hold for the last two years
“June 9, 2014
It would take ten years to increase by 2m barrels a day.
CALGARY, Alberta (June 9, 2014) –Canadian oil production is projected to grow steadily by an annual average of four per cent or 175,000 barrels per day over the period to 2030 as companies continue to develop the oil sands in response to strong demand indications from North American and global energy markets.”
“It would take ten years to increase by 2m barrels a day.”
That is my addition. Was supposed to go after the quote from the article.
BTW, that is all oil production not just the oilsands.
Yes not easy. Due to logistic reason, it could be much slower or go down. It is very difficult to ship oil out of canada and Alberta oil sells at big discount
Xle I know, what was the ticker for the 2nd index?
OIH
Hello Al
Gary Savages comments on the pop in the oil price did not mention the explosion on the Saudi pipeline yesterday. As a chartist he is looking in the rearview mirror but the market discounts events immediately. Also, he refuses to admit that we are in a deflationary spiral. The direction of oil is down, not up.
Bob Grierson
Switzerland
How many times must I call these intermediate cycle lows before people believe me?
The energy stocks are screaming that oil is about to bottom if it hasn’t already but no one seems to be paying any attention.
I’ll say it again. It’s not fundamentals that cause an intermediate turn, it’s sentiment.
xle has broken the downtrend.
Thanks Bob in Switzerland,
You are right, he did not mention it.
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Pipeline is just an excuse. It was under control already.
This is hilarious. US Mint runs out of silver eagles because of high demand today.
http://mobile.reuters.com/article/idUSL1N0SV2RP20141105?irpc=932
I think they run out every year about this time.
More often than once a year. Logically management should learn, why it happens again and again? The result is rationing regardless of motivation
Looks like the pop in miners was just a gap fill. Continue waiting for metals until gold forms a swing.
XLE filled its gap today too Gary, taking out $88.41 would be positive… or the gap filled now heads lower
OIH filled its gap as well, heads higher or rolls over?…take out $46 first step
JJ,
The bottom line is that oil is way way overdue for an intermediate degree rally. Sentiment is at extreme bearish levels. We are going to get an intermediate degree rally soon. It may have begun today. Oil did form a swing and that is the first step. The next would be a break of the daily cycle down trend line.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$WTIC&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&id=p49246035568&a=374988539&listNum=1
both parties have GREATLY failed us…. get real.. its going to get worse….
To a large extent, Sally, I have to agree with you.
I am pretty convinced that it is all about power!
both partys Sally?
I think there may only be 1 government, and they are not elected.
Doc,gary,rick,everyone that pays attention to my calls including al and cory,
I pulled the trigger today and bought 4 miners which i like. Please don’t ask me what i bought as im not interested in sharing my portfolio at this given moment. But as promised bought in an will await the verdict. Impulsive move on my behalf as i earlier stated we would head lower but the miners i bought confirmed all time bottoms and double bottoms and two in particular did v bottom move with extreme volume. Ya want balls jj well there you have.. And enjoy it!
Cheers
Glen
Came close to buying some FTSE listed miners this morning. Very tempted still.
Good for you Glen you found your balls!
Since going short off $1242 failing to hold DUST is up 63% JDST up 109% and DSLV up 39% I sold 1/3 of my positions into the close….not bad for 2 weeks work.
The miners need a real long tail candle reversal to get the shorts to cover, not yet
Real men Glen trade from the short side and the long side, sorry, unless you bought a big oil short today to back up your much, much lower oil call
Im not looking to enter the miners at the dead bottom of oil..Im entering it now as some miners are starting to diverge. In 2008 oil kept going down with equities into march of 2009. I had scooped up a few miners already in october/november of 2008. You know what oil was trading at when I hit the bottom on those miners? 70-80. The market is always forward looking. Don’t stuck with your computer system in between your legs lol. Real men have integrity,respect and values none of which you hold..Ta Ta..
That the difference between you and me Glenda, you like to tell everyone how smart you are repeatedly with your much lower oil call yet you don’t back up your own opinion with a short position, are you a goldbug guru newsletter writer?
I take positions behind my opinions and make money, this isn’t about who is right or wrong its about making money so when oil goes to $30 from $100 you can pound your chest and tell everyone how smart you are, BUT you made no money, real smart indeed.
Funny you are no different than all the rest who knock those that have been correct for years, your ego is sooo huge you actually think your smarter than the man countries call for advice when they have real situations of panic, Armstrong, unless of course they are calling you as well, lol
Goof ball!!
Your such an emotional wreck! How could any one around you stand you. Pathetic little creature. You don’t care much of my opinion but or what I have to say yet I will wait 30 seconds for your reply. The one who needs to grow one is you. I very proud of my winnings today lol.. Did you cover?
Thanks for asking….Since going short off $1242 failing to hold DUST is up 63% JDST up 109% and DSLV up 39% I sold 1/3 of my positions into the close….not bad for 2 weeks work…..I will wait for the Fri jobs report to cover all my shorts or add, today is a reaction pop off some decent key miners positive Q3 reports…
for the record jj i sold my positions today.. Any guess at what my returns where?
don’t care glen, I only care about my returns of +63% +109% and +39%
Also i will add that if the turn does come here and soon, im 51 percent sure we go down next year to hit sub 1000.. I cant imagine putting in the final bottom here and going up without an equities correction.
bb…….Nice one……Its great when one can see through the clouds…..
Funny how the party of the rich control both houses….I wonder who funded their campaign..!!! ???
Probly the same guys, unless a specific company wants a specific “favour”, which they will get a long as it doesn’t interfere with their regular contributors interests.
Funny, the media here was saying they didn’t know why we got attacked by Islamic guys.
As did our liberal party say they didn’t know why.
I sent the liberal party a list of atrocities we have been supporting for years, I asked them to stop being so naive.
Gary posted his thoughts about oil on his blog BEFORE the oil pipeline blew up, for whatever reason, in Saudi Arabia.
Just saying.
Thanks Bob UK
GARY LIKES TO CLAIM VICTORY for calling a bottom in oil the day after the election, claiming the incumbents wanted to keep the price of oil down. BUT HE FAILED TO MENTION HE ALSO SAID IT WAS THE SAME FOR THE STOCK MARKET.
NE SAID THE FED WILL NOT LET THE STOCK MARKET GO DOWN BEFORE THE ELECTION.
WELL HERE IT IS AFTER THE ELECTION AND THE MARKETS ARE STILL UP.
someone needs to get the memo out the election is over.
first of all everyone knew the republicans would take back the senate
Also the people who voted republican didn’t care about a rising stock market
They voted about jobs, wagers, immigration
THE INCUBENTS YOU THINK WERE KEEPING IT UP IS WRONG.
these people aren’t even in the stock market
IF YOU WANT TO PAT TOURSELF ON THE BACK FOR OIL YOU MUST SAY YOU WERE WRONG ABOUT STOCKS FOR THE SAME REASON.
YOU CANT HAVE SOMEONE WITH NO FORMAL BACKGROUND MAKING THESE OFF THE CUFF STATEMENTS
For several weeks now I have been listening to Gary on here say that the rally in general stocks is going to carry on probably until Christmas and perhaps for some months afterwards.
I don’t know what you have been listening to but it is not the same thing that I have been hearing Gary say. I think he has been pretty much spot on.
One of the many reasons that he is here Bob UK
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I have to agree, James, it was not a given that the Republicans would take back the Senate.
Respectfully
James,
Are you serious? I never said the market would go down after the elections. That was every other analyst. I’ve been trying to keep people from losing their positions while eveyone else tries to call a top day after day after day. Eventually they will get it but in the process they have missed an incredible opportunity as we came out of the recent intermediate cycle low.
You really don’t read what you write to see if it even makes any sense.
You need to take a course is reading.
I didn’t say you said the market would go down after the election.
I said that you said the fed would not let it go down before the election.
Big difference
Again not what I said. I said the Fed would have the market back at or near 2000 for the last taper. The S&P hit 1992 on the FOMC meeting. I said the Dow would be near or at all time highs ahead of the elections. The Dow was at all time highs yesterday as we went into the elections.
The markets have done exactly what I said they would do.
http://blog.smartmoneytrackerpremium.com/2014/10/charts-day-7.html
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Too many people looking for oil at 10 to 50 only and it is not likely to happen. I bought into transocean as it looks like a nice bounce coming in oil. Gartman was talking about $10 to $20 oil which is just not possible.
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Paul,
I think your mistaken. Ive been here for about a year now and never heard anyone but myself make calls like 35/40 wti oil longer term and that was months ago. All I kept hearing was oil to da moon. Well here we are and now i finally here oil to 70 and a few people calling 57 or so like rick. At some point maybe they jump on my wagon of 35/40. I may be wrong but I expect a massive spike down soon if not this year then next year.
Chart of the day.
http://blog.smartmoneytrackerpremium.com/2014/11/chart-day-42.html
Any idea what happens if silver producers go bust? I don’t care about gold.
Have you heard any possibility of some miners give up. They are depleting their best grade at a loss. Do they know the consequences? No one will buy them out if all they have is low grade.
ANV is a case in point – it is either the buy of the year or close to possible bankruptcy? I suspect that lots of small miners are in the same place.
If they go bust Lawrence they will be bought up at a fraction of their current price. The share holders will lose everything though.
Maybe that is the plan by the big boys – push miners to bankruptcy and buy them up for next to nothing.
Thanks Bob. Very likely. The big boys cannot be big miners. The lower gold price also threatens their livelihood. They rather see high price and buy little ones out with their shares. The guys doing the suppression must be the guys with cash, which is the big banks. However, they will not have so much physical metal to do the minimum delivery so they have to get it from government. I have been thinking that what is there for Wall Street banks to help government to suppress the gold price. I think it might be two sides, take over the small, medium or even some of the big ones like Newmont. The other way they can do is to accumulate certain amount of physical for later higher price. These guys will not acquire money losing companies for mid to long term. Once they are successful, they have to raise the price.
Worrying about this, I have been lightening up on stocks since February. But who knows, we can only guess but this does seems to be the end game. Holding weak miners can lose a lot of money.
Instead of pushing them to bankruptcy, lending some money in short term and then call the loan back can surely take them to bankruptcy. If they wait, some of them may go dormant and not declare bankruptcy.
Hope I am wrong.
My mistake Lawrence – by ‘big boys’ I meant the banks and financial institutions and not the big mining firms.
Lots of the junior miners are up to their eyeballs in debt – much of it owed to the banks and to financial institutions who hold bonds. If these junior miners go bust the banks can end up owning a lot of mine for ‘just’ the debt.
ANV is a case in point – off the top of my head I think it has about 500 million USD in debt and needs a cash injection of about 1.5 billion for a new mine/mine process. Well, rather than try a take-over of it at 6 bucks a share or 4 bucks a share just drive down the price of the metals until ANV goes bust. Ditto for other junior miners.
I am not one for conspiracy theories and, over the years, have often found myself laughing at the conspiracy theories of goldbugs on numerous forums BUT…
…you know what – if there is about to be a final wash-out of the PMs before a new bull begins then why not get your hands on the junior mines that would likely soar during any bull???
Thanks. Maybe the world is not that bad as I think. We are all little guys so will never know. I know financial area is dirty with my experience. I was junior partner of small software company before 2000. The company was small but fine. I knew nothing about business so I was in charge of technology. One day there was a venture capitalist firm recommended a guy to be our CEO. My boss took the offer and that guy spent huge amount of money and we was in big trouble. Then he negotiated a loan for us. Soon After that we were in bankruptcy since he claimed we could not pay the interest and his loan was at risk so he got a court order and took all of our asset.
So if banks are not angels, they would have planted the seeds and ready to pull the trigger at any time. Unfortunately, we can not know which company borrowed from whom, so it is better to go with the ones with cash. Or better yet buy physical.
Great information. I am happy that I don’t hold any one on the list. I used to have Pam American but I sold it a couple weeks ago.
For traders waiting on the slide lines makes sense. But I’m buying for insurance and this price will drag my average price lower.
Physical or mining stocks Rod ?
This is what whacked gold, not manipulation but more currency devaluation
http://www.traderdannorcini.blogspot.ca/2014/11/bank-of-japans-kuroda-talks-stimulus.html