Some targets on oil, gold, and the US dollar
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We’ll ahve to keep our fingers cross on this one, JJ. Silver looks awful, and the bounce so far in Gold from an ostensibly crucial support has been less than inspiring.
Fri jobs data if a big positive will put further bid under the $ and although you careless of the central bank action Rick its the BOJ that has effected almost every sector in the markets so if they want 120 yen we will see 90+ $ and sub $1100 gold
I have a topping target of 91/92 for dollar then the reversal
yen will hit 120 and revers
euro 118/119 and reverse
loonie 76/81
1137 will break just like i said 1180 would break..
cheers
the messenger
Rick=Impressive hiden pivot master. Great Call!
Thanks, Glen. I was using an 88.92 rally target for ICEUS’s Dollar Index, so the move still has a little ways to go before making a short-term top. My big-picture targets are MUCH higher, though.
Rick,
You will not believe this and I know its just one mans opinion but David McAlvany had Ian McAvity on for his last Weekly Commentary Show as of a few days ago.
If you don’t know Mr. McAvity he is a huge goldbug and has been for decades and of course, still is. He see’s gold going to very high dollars figures in the future, and even he thinks there is the possibility that over the next few years the dollar is going to………..are you ready and sitting down………..the 120-140 range before there is a breakdown in its price action.
What I just wrote is of course me pharasing his thoughts. I hope I was correct in my wording.
Vortex’s Thoughts:
What is unfolding in world economies is simply unprecedented in human history as you already know. The debt and deleveraging in the system with its deflationary forces in command is going to initiate a flight to safety phenomenon that will unleash a dollar centric safe-haven status never seen.
Basically, the world capital inflows will be so massive the dollar will strengthen even in the face of overt monetary intervention to try to stim the tide of the rising nature of the dollar as a result of global inflows.
Basically this thesis is pretty easy to understand because we are going to see massive sovereign debt problems all across the globe and every other currency is a derivative of the US Dollar. Period end of story. The weakening of those currency units and the global funds in motion seeking stable markets and liquidity from the US Treasury will be a monetary nirvana event in monetary terms, but in a bad way.
Someday the dollar is going to die and lose most of its already fleeting value, but before we get to that point the world and all central banks are going to see a phenomenon in dollar strength even they will be helpless to control.
People had better open their eyes and start to contemplate the incomprehensible of monetary X-factor that comes with the most unprecedented and powerful ponzi scheme ever contrived. The dollar may well go Super Nova before its fate with the dustbin of history is written.
I have advocated that dollar would seek equalibrium over the next year or two reach the 90 handle. I may wind up looking like a clownish buffoon in my conservative targets when this debt repudiation has run its course globally.
Basically what the financial engineers in these Central Banks and their complicit facilitating money production and expansion machines known as regional and connected banks have done is unleash financial hell upon earth.
A fascinating read, Vortex. Thanks for the post. This forecast very closely matches things I have been thinking about, and writing about, for years, and although the idea of a dollar short-squeeze is not explicit, the expectations it raises for the dollar are most surely more than merely bullish. Most striking and clear is the idea that we will endure a ruinous deflation before the fact of the dollar’s intrinsic worthlessness comes home to roost. The analysis also implicitly raises the question of whether any of us will be nimble enough, or smart enough, to avoid getting whipsawed to death.
I was looking to get long in TLT Thursday on the possibility that even mildly disappointing payroll numbers would send Bond price screaming. By day’s end, though, it looked to me as though TLT was more likely to fall hard on Friday, implying the jobs data wilol be quite bullish.
JJ, thank you very much for mentioning Yen gold relationship. It helped me to chain events together.
Appreciate it greatly. Do you subscribe Armstrong Economics? What is the best way to do it?
The dollar appears like it might breakout again or peak here at 88 and do another correction which would be good if it has peaked out.
There seem to be a lot of people calling for that Paul. When you look at all the other currencies in the dollar index it is hard to disagree.
I like following charts like Rick. The news is unpredictable and you can’t predict how it will move the dollar, oil or gold.
The stock market’s ups and downs create the news, Paul, and not the other way around. Start with the charts, tune out the headlines, and forecastng will always be simpler.
Rick what is your target for GDXJ ?
recheck it but I heard $20
with change he said so it that 20.10 or 20.90.? 😉
I’v been using 20.76, Stewie. The target looks too compelling on the weekly chart to avoid.
Thank you Rick.
gdxj…………..from 150 to 23…………is a hell of a hair cut…………
I think that’s called a scalp! J
brutal
I call that a rough bear market…
Actually its called a totally decimated and crushed financial vehicle.
Dis is ALL manipulation and robbery !
I have 9 different gold mining stocks up more than 4% today. A few are up over 7%. This is a surprise considering gold is relatively flat. I wonder if they are leading the gold price and we are heading for a strong rally.
Also, the falling oil price is really going to help the miners out. I don’t think this is really being considered in many of the forecasts.
Paul I would take profits here if your short trading.
I agree AISC are going down as wti deflates.
cheers
the messenger
I am a long term investor and have been heavily in to gold stocks since 2008. There were many times I could have been shaken out just at bottoms or sold too soon at what I thought was a top. Even with the last few years of horrible performance, I am way ahead and have taken the opportunity to buy more and increase my holdings. I think the way I am positioned now, I should do very well the next few years when gold finally starts taking off again. I am not a technical trader but the bullish gold miners percentage is at zero. This tells me along with all the negative postings that this is a either a bottom or very close to a bottom. I can’t remember where I read it but there was actually an article about the death of gold last week. As a long term contrarian investor, this is all music to my ears.
Agreed, but bottoms take time. It is all about the dollar right now. If you can tell me when and where the dollar will top and head back down for a considerable period, then I can tell you when the PMs bottom. Also, the miner sentiment was at zero twice last year and even though the stocks rallied, the rallies ultimately failed.
I believe in spreading your bets and averaging in but it is still a bet. Yes, it is all about the dollar right now but next week or next month it may be all about something else. You never know what our illustrious leaders will do to screw things up or what geopolitcal event may take place. The only sure thing is that the predictions of commodity or currency prices long term are often wrong.
Good correlation on cheap oil helping the miners out. Energy costs are a huge percentage on their production costs. Unfortunately we will not see the benefit until financials are released for this quarter. Which will be a while.
Cory
gold/silver ratio at 74 almost at 75.. How about that sir? my target remains 78/80
Impressive… It just keeps going higher.
Rick excellent point on the fact that in essence so many people are short the $
Everyone thought they would pay there mortages off with cheaper dollars.
Once again the crowd is always wrong.
People have underwater houses and parting with more and more valued dollars to pay the mortage on a sinking asset.
Makes for a national catastrophe
Seems today gold and silver has decoupled
Off topic: Careful when you’re buying foreclosed homes: http://www.news-press.com/story/news/local/cape-coral/2014/11/05/cape-coral-man-buys-foreclosed-home-finds-body-inside/18557093/
Local news stories have become so routinely godawful that the follow-up to this story will be about how the new owner of the home considers the body an unexpected bonus.
Rick, what I can never understand is how can a family member/friend/neighbor not notice that an individual has been missing for sometime and not check up on him/her. Speaks volume as to how far we have fallen as a society.
The standard reply is that nothing has really changed – that mothers have ALWAYS killed their children by shoving them from bridges.
Haha great comment Rick.
“That body was a bonus”… said nobody
Rick:
Gary is saying that he believes that if gold stays inn this price range for the next 12-16 weeks, then he believes that we have got a bottom in gold. On the other hand, he also says that if gold ‘rockets up’ in price from this level fairly soon, then the price rise will be ‘a bear market rally’ and we will get lower prices in the summer of 2015. Do you agree? Why or why not?
Gold is. Not going to rocket up
It sold off into the close
We will be making lower lows…$1000, $700 maybe $500
Just to be on the safe side, it’s going to $0.
I try to avoid “maybes” and approximations, James, If 1137.50 gives way, I would infer more slippage to exactly 1114.60, basis the December Comex. Permabulls can bottom-fish there, too — with a stop-loss as tight as 70 cents — but we should never come to a trade with “hope” in our hearts.
bwahahahah
bwhahaha to james comment
No predictions are necessary, Andrew. According to the technical method I use, it’s simply a matter of whether the major Hidden Pivot support at 1131.50 holds or doesn’t. Considering the perfection of the pattern that produced this target, and the time it took to get there (15 months), I would regard even a relatively small overshoot as very bearish. A more detailed explanation of this can be found at my web site: http://www.rickackerman.com.
Negative GOFO signals further gold weakness due to collateral/dollar short stress.
http://www.alhambrapartners.com/2014/11/06/gofo-back-beyond-its-old-tricks/
Thanks for posting John. I am re-posting because I think this is very valid.
Chris I’m not saying it’s going to 0
But $500 can’t be ruled out
Just jerking your chain. Joking aside, nobody knows at what price it’s going to bottom. The one thing I am certain of its going to reverse course so fast its going to leave us wondering what the hell just happened. All I am going to say at this moment is do not fight the tape.. let it do what it has to do.
I said it before and I will say it again.
Everyone on this blog should be ecstatic.
If you are short gold you are making a fortune.
If you don’t have enough gold here is your time to buy
For three years all I’ve heard is how people are going to back up the truck when gold goes down.
Well here is your chance.
My $1000, $700 and $500 calls should be music to people’s ears.
Instead they don’t like it.
Look at the big picture
We keep seeing lower highs s s lower lows and still people refuse to see the forest for the trees.
I don’t like saying it but it is what it is
James,
You’re logical and reasonable. You realize that there are factors in the world that are simply beyond your control and can be unfair as times, but you endeavor ahead and embrace that which is, not what you hope to be.
Most will continue to fight the trend and refuse to change direction because of their foolish BS beliefs and an inflated ego that refuses to accept their thesis was or is temporary incorrect.
I prefer to swim with the tide not against it. It appears you do as well.
Vortex excellent insight
Rick you target of 1137.50 was smashed below and yet Gold has gone up above 1165.
Although yesterday you said if gold breaks below 1137.50 that’s very onerous for Gold.
No worries Rick I’m sure Al will tell his audience you were dead accurate on your prediction.
Rick A great call on your key $1137 level, very impressive, watching closely, thanks!