Friday was a great day for gold
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Thanks glen. My indicators point to more upside —which means buy the dips. If you’ve ever had the feeling that I sometimes act without much concern for the indicators, you’d be right, but I’ve been sticking to them lately and they’ve worked well.
I do not think we’ll see a new low for gold this year, but if we do, it might look something like this:
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$GOLD&p=W&yr=2&mn=3&dy=0&id=p11925959635&a=376492784
Matt,
incredible what a picture paints. That is precisely what I believe is going to happen. Something along those lines. If does happen it will be quick and violent..
Thanks for the charts and keep them coming.
Volume is too strong on bullion for further downsides.
Fran…My gut tells me the bottom is in……But there again my gut might just be reaction to the bad pint of beer I had in the pub lastnight…haha
got to go with the gut………….pure sign of intelligence, that is why you have one………………….
I’ve had those gut feelings in the past. Problem is, my gut has s–t for brains! 🙂
HAHA!!..irish
I think if you are trader, you should be above 90% to come out as a winner since 90% people lose. In 1970s, even gold ran up 25 times, most long gold funds lost money. Same with 2000-2008, the long gold funds averaged a loss of 7% a year. I haven’t seen stats after that. It is one thing to gamble with other’s money and it is different with your own. Beating GS and JPM in their own game is impossible. You need to chose a way to get around them, which is holding for longer term. Nothing they can do to you if you don’t play with them. I choose not to gamble. I staye in Vegas for 4 days a few years ago and I didn’t gamble a cent.
ditto on the LONG TERM…………………….OOTB
Speaking of Las Vegas, one of my favorite bumper stickers states that “Gambling is for those who flunked 3rd grade math”
Just spent a couple of days down there with Doc, Marshall, Gary and the wives. Property visit was great the Strip sucks!
YEP
ditto on YEP……………
This non-log silver chart points to a move back to $50:
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SILVER&p=W&yr=4&mn=8&dy=0&id=p89643613314&a=352087083
I follow Avi and I trade using his calls. I have done very well. Good luck with your gut feelings.
FWIW here’s 33 years of Dow:Gold…
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$INDU:$GOLD&p=M&st=1981-09-06&en=today&id=p24613236895&a=367265006
HI Matthew, thank you for your chart… very nice as always… do you happen to have any comment along the thought that gold follows $TNX:$UST2Y ?… or does it mean anything?… Simply I dont have enough knowledge to say it’s a true statement or not… thanks and appreciate your opinion!
http://www.kitco.com/ind/Tanashian/2014-11-14-Gold-Sector-Review.html
Hi genesys, yes, gold does seem to go the way $TNX:$UST2Y does overall, but the two can diverge meaningfully. For example, gold went up 77% while $TNX:$UST2Y went down 70% from 9/2003 to 12/2006.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$TNX:$UST2Y&p=M&yr=20&mn=0&dy=0&id=p37417047559&a=376568043
Thank you sir… quite an interesting thing to know there was a period of divergence.
Gold went up 390% since 2006 when measured in senior gold miners and looks like it has most likely peaked. It has never been so expensive by this measure.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$GOLD:$HUI&p=W&yr=10&mn=0&dy=0&id=p27838399646&a=360411565
I saw Avi’s comment at 8:50 on Friday. GDX was the play but he indicated it was a dangerous trade. You’ve got to have the cojones to follow thru on this one as your stop could have easily been taken out before the move up. Isn’t hindsight a killer at times.
GDXJ plunged 91.6% in less than 3 years, 3 months when priced in SPY (SPY went up about 1,000% priced in GDXJ). Based on that fact and the following chart, which one would you rather buy?
GDXJ:SPY…
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=GDXJ:SPY&p=W&yr=5&mn=3&dy=0&id=p23640679830&a=376575377
1130 was not the bottom. Not even close
Those who agree can buy the miners and GLD puts.
I wish you offered more breakdown as to why your 500/600 dollar target instead of just repeating it.
The end of this three year plus bear will be a final plunge. And what will cause the big plunge is physical hitting the market.
Ok thanks now that is the kinda info we want! keep them coming 🙂
Hi Matthew. Thank u for nice chart of this one. Quick question pls. How does the volume is plotted when u show spy in gdxj term? I just try to understand what it really means beyond obvious its a downtrend. Thanks man!
Falling volume as price rises is bearish. In this case, the volume you see is not actual but relative since it is not SPY priced in dollars. Still, the analysis is the same —bearish (but bearish in terms of GDXJ not dollars).
It is also bullish for the sector that PSLV continues to trade at a premium to NAV despite silver making a new multi-year low on record bearish sentiment.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=PSLV&p=D&yr=1&mn=6&dy=0&id=p90589127199&a=369256731
Thank you for the chart as always!
Jim Rogers has had a few interviews lately. He has turned bullish on gold and has been buying. He has been talking about possible sub-1000 gold during the last few years. He is a good macro picture investor and an insider. He is also quite adamant on fundamental change in the world economy in particular the West due to unavoidable debt problems.
Lawrence what is most recent? Can you provide a link is buying as i type this?
Last I heard he said it will break 1000 and he will wait.
lol, sorry this is the link
No, there is an interview with Glenn Beck last week. He advocate people to buy bullion coins. There is a twist. Glenn and Jim had a small argument since Glenn represents collector coin dealers and Jim said that at bad times nobody will pay the extra for collector items.
Yes i hear you loud and clear. But from what i gather, rogers is waiting for the bigger move and so should you lawrence don’t be fooled. 🙂
It is very unlikely one gets the timing precisely. I am happy to have left a lot of cash. I will keep buying if price goes lower.
Rogers tells the world that gold is probably going lower so that he can accumulate without competition and have someone to sell to after it takes off and leaves most would-be investors behind. Notice that he is never certain that it is going lower.
Matt,
Im just keeping an opend mind. Notice how king world news, and all other gold gurus have been preaching gold for three plus years and what’s happened? People have lost all there fortune.
It works both ways.
People that have lost their fortunes have to blame themselves, not KWN or any other source of opinions. A truly open mind is a rare and good thing to have.
Avi,
Im on par with your views..Bearish flag formation across the board being set up. Thanks for your input.
Matt congrats to you on this latest trade as I know you had stayed in and i didnt have the nerves to do it.
What are your views short term matt? One more move down or it’s up from here?