Gold, Politics, and Company Updates
Hour 1:
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Hour 2:
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Hour 1:
- Segment 1: Peter Brandt of Factor Research expresses optimism for gold.
- Segment 2: Wendell Zerb, President and CEO of Exeter Resources, provides an update on the mining progress in Chile.
- Segment 3: Big Al, Cory, and Richard Postma, AKA Doc, discuss U.S. politics with Jeff Deist, President of The Mises Institute.
- Segment 4: Valentin Schmid, Business Editor for the Epoch Times, discusses the recent Summit in China and a bit on the value of the Russian Currency.
- Segment 5: Roger White, President and CEO, discusses Theralase Technologies.
- Segment 6-7: Big Al, Cory, Doc, Chris Temple of the National Investor, Gary Savage of Smart Money Tracker, and Rick Ackerman of Rick’s Picks, opine on the past week.
- Segment 8: A great political rant with Glen Downs, Chief of Staff for Congressman Walter Jones.
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Many thanks for the kind words!
For what it’s worth Al (Seg 7 )I’m with you re the political scenarios swamping the fundamentals when it comes to determining gold’s rising price. Exeter resources offer an exciting play too.
Here’s what I’m watching next week that will tell me if I’m wrong about one more leg down for gold later in Dec. If the euro breaks it’s intermediate trend line next week then gold has probably formed a final intermediate bottom and should rally for 4-5 more weeks at least.
http://blog.smartmoneytrackerpremium.com/2014/11/chart-day-45.html
ditto on AL’S comments…………
Thanks Jerry, nice to know that I am not totally crazy and misdirected! (Maybe just partially!)
See what you just did..Jerry..you just gave the big fella an ego……..
Just kidding..AL….haha
Please define the word “ego”, Mr Irish!
Something defined by waistband Al ….maybe!!!
Gary,
It looks like a classic bear flag formation. Im certain that we have one more big leg down left. We didn’t come this far to not take a crack at 1000/1050. Multiple big gaps left behind, and although there are always breakaway gaps that take years to come back, i bet the farm they close if we expect the next great bull to proceed for another 5 years or more.
Glen,
I personally don’t see it. Could be wrong, but I just don’t see it. Too much utter carp going on!
Al,
Caution and being on the sidelines would be my biggest advice to anyone. At the very least al one should wait for conformation of resumed bull. This glen prefers to play it that way.
🙂
I think what keeps gaps open at the most important turns is big-money flows. The biggest money looks at weekly charts the way we look at daily charts. Intraday gaps don’t matter to most retail investors and I’d bet that intraweek gaps don’t matter much to billionaires.
I disagree with the belief that we can’t have a great bull market without filling the gaps, but I wouldn’t mind if they do get filled.
I think THE bottom will be in place when we see a monthly close above the red neckline here: http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$GOLD:$USB&p=M&yr=20&mn=11&dy=0&id=p35331016214&a=376478591
great comments……………..I agree…………………….j…………..
Matt,
Put it this way, if they get filled i don’t need to look in the rear view window of what may happen down the road. Thanks for the other side as always 🙂
Glen,
I think it’s going to depend entirely on whether the dollar has put in an intermediate top or not.
It is worth a lot. Thanks Reverend!
Silver prices doing ‘weird stuff’ and paper market set to fold in on itself predicts Silver Wheaton CEO
There’s been some ‘weird stuff’ going on in the paper market for silver this CNBC interview reminds us today as prices hover near four-year lows. Silver Wheaton president and CEO Randy Smallwood predicts that the silver paper market will be ‘folding in on itself’ sending prices much higher.
His company is set to benefit with an average silver production cost of $4.50 so he is already making a 70 per cent profit margin on every ounce sold…
Video posted Nov 13, 2014 Arabian Money
Thanks Market.
I happen to agree.
Markedtofuture, Quite apart from silver’s current price being below its cost of production, Silver Wheaton is a no-brainer for massive returns, and where for example 0.1 gm of silver goes into every solar panel being produced.
Gold streaming company Sandstorm is also due a massive rise.
Rev Andy:
But what happens if SW’s suppliers go belly up and the suppliers’ contracts are discharged through bankruptcy?
I think most of them are base metal producers and a few are gold. So silver price will not have too much impact on them. Gold price is a factor and base metal is crucial.
I don’t think that will happen John considering the industrial demand.
Dai Uy: Goldcorp one of SW’s biggest suppliers won’t ever go belly up
Or bang up to date what Motley Fool has to say:
https://www.fool.ca/2014/11/14/will-silver-wheaton-corp-hit-45/
Regarding Silver Wheaton, I am sure they will do well under the current low silver price, but they will underperform when silver stays high for long period. When miners treasure their silver as gold, they will not give their business to SLW.
Thanks Lawrence.
Reverend, you’re not wrong about that. You can’t beat their model.
With regards to Silver, here is a Interview from Nov 14, 2014 (yesterday) that might be of interest.
BO Polny : Silver Will Rise No Matter What The Fed Says
http://youtu.be/p4FCumO9P_A
SEG 4 ……….great report…………….
Valentine is a very bright man, Jerry. Great to have him on our Show!
More I listen to Valentine, more I feel he is deviating from his organization’s stand on China. As a banned religion in China, FalunGong, the sponsor of Epoch Times is violently against China. They have created a lot of lies about China which pissed most Chinese off. But Valentine is relatively fair.
I start to like him. I still don’t like his religion since I hate lies.
Thanks for the input on this issue, Lawrence. Your opinion happens to carry a lot of weight!
Where is franki…………….we need a youtube post…….per Glen Downs…..listen to SEG 8. at about the 5:25 mark……………….
U.S. Treasury bill rates had their lowest close last month, and this week saw another low close, so I would be watching repo rates and bill rates for moves into negative territory. The corollary move in gold futures markets aught to be a narrowing of spreads between near dated futures and the longest dated futures.
Thanks for the observation, Fran Six.
Europe is an economic basket-case and getting worse. I can see the Euro going lower between now and Christmas.
Don’t forget, the West is raising the stakes with sanctions against Russia but, unlike the US, many EU countries depend heavily on their exports to Russia.
In the UK currently we are getting big falls in the price of things like cheese, apples, various foodstuffs and alcohol because none of those French apples or Polish blackberries or Dutch/German beer or Scottish whiksy can be sold to Russia.
There are big deflationary trends in Europe at the moment and it looks as if it will suck the UK down with it.
I really wish the West would stop trying to run the world. Sounds like you do too UK Bob.
Someone once said that if you are not a socialist when young that you have no soul… but that if you are not conservative when you grow older that you have no brain.
We are incredibly fortunate to have been born in Western countries like the UK, US, Canada and Western Europe. Most of us are aware of that and when we see pain and turmoil elsewhere on the planet it is only natural that we wish to help out.
But more often than not it gets thrust back in our face. The good that we try to do seems to be quickly turned into a stick with which to beat us. Then we see the rich and powerful from our own countries getting us involved in places like the Ukraine because they want oil contracts or goodness knows what else.
The older I get the more I think that we should just stay out of things – carry a bit stick and only use it on those who threaten us. We shouldn’t go looking for trouble in someone else’s back yard – espeically if it is because some politician or another wants his son or daughter to take over that country’s oil industry.
Great observation my friend. I personally could not agree more!
Just to add – as I have posted on here before – I think Putin will up the ante in the Ukraine sometime over the winter months.
At the time of most benefit to Russia – when it is colder – I think he will move into Ukraine and aim for a link up between the Russian border and the Crimea. In other words, seizing the south-eastern part of the Ukraine. He will also cut the gas supplies off to the rest o f Ukraine, and probably to Western Europe also, at the same time. It will come unannounced and will be a fait accompli.
That will the day that gold goes through the roof.
Right, on that cheery note I am off to open the bottle of wine that I bought today for £3 less than it cost a few weeks ago.
Agree, Putin will move soon.
Regarding that will or could cause gold to go through the roof I, of course agree.
I think there are other things, as I mentioned on the Show, that could have the same effect. Don’t you?
Yes, the other reasons you mentioned are all possibilities.
I think we will still get a bloodbath phase first of all along the lines that Gary mentioned. One more drop down to 1050 or 1000 to squeeze everyone. It will be interesting to see what happens if Russia starts to sell gold in order to pay for its imports – maybe TPTB will push gold down in order to hurt Putin more?
I will say it again, not trying to be argumentative, I just don’t see gold going down that low.
Bob UK……..I think you are correct……..might be a long cold winter in the EU.
Yes Bob all at the expense of farmers in Europe.
Also agree over how Putin could react this coming winter.
As do I Reverend!
If the repubs vote for impeachment of Obama it will be fun for a few weeks , but ultimaley damage the repub party. Obama should hope to be impeached, as it will make him seem a marter . love to all Sl
r scott….Skip the impeachment….Go straight for the hanging.
I still do not think he has a birth certificate (USA)….and is illegally holding office, and that is why he wants 5 MILLION MORE ILLEGALS TO JOIN HIM………………………JMHO……
That is interesting Jerry!
So true Scott.
I gotta tell you, I REALLY DO NOT AGREE WITH THE MAN!
Andrew…Putin holds all the cards…..Just seen Cameron mouthing a load of dribble at the G20 , about Russia , I can understand why after seen him sitting next to Obama….He Camy just another glove puppet like Blair , been worked by the American NWO……GOD save us from the madness of the crazy elite.
PM Cameron acts like the Old Etonian prefect he still is IrishT. After calling Putin a Nazi I can’t believe that Putin even gave him the time of day. As for Mark Carney leave all the diatribes to Max Keiser! And what about that other old Etonian scoundrel Boris Johnson doing furtive deals with the Chinese over London’s docklands?
Put the Tower of London to some proper use I say! Best, A
Andrew….Naw skip the Tower…..What about the O2 arena..A great sound system…
Disco lights…& a gallows…..The scum always rise’s to the top at ETON
BTW….I hope all you good boys & girls out there are saving your pocket money in silver rounds………YOU ARE !!!!!….Good boys & girls.
yes papa we have been good little children …………………….
Putin will just listen. Take the insults on board. Say nothing. Do nothing. Bide his time.
It is clear that our political lot really do not understand the game here. But then look at the difference – the likes of Obama and Cameron are a product of a generation of people who just wish to be politicians. Their lives revolve around focus groups and opinion polls. All style. No substance.
Putin was – is – KGB. Tough cookie. I wonder how we look through his eyes. Weak I suspect.
BOB….I have to agree……..The thing with Putin is , he cares about his country & its people , unlike our soulless leaders…. he is staring at the board , pretty soon CHECKMATE.
Yes Bob, I think that we do look weak to him.
DITTO
Oh He definitely will, Mr Irish! I firmly believe that.
The gold miners would have to rise 50% from here just to reach their November 2000 lows versus gold:
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$GDM:$GOLD&p=M&yr=20&mn=11&dy=0&id=p36760036068&a=376487942
Being long the miners along with strategically chosen GLD puts as a hedge makes sense to me.
Matthew……..what do you think of RIO TINTO………….?……..thanks j………….
RIO is not a company that I know well, due to its size, but it appears to be solid and a decent value at the current price.
If you feel more comfortable with big companies, you might consider Goldcorp instead. I don’t own it either, but it looks much more appealing to me right now and for the long term.
thanks for the input……………….appreciate…………….j……..
BTW….my reason for asking about Rio…..was the diamond aspect….
J…the long,
Diamonds are nice but look at RIO’s underbelly,
Its Iron Ore.
Thats what predominantly moves its share price (not its smaller diversified interests)
If you believe iron ore prices will rise then RIO will climb accordingly,
If you dont, then I believe BHP who are more diversified thsn RIO would be a better bet.
Both BHP & RIO can make money at iron ore prices far lower than what todays price is…most others are losing money right now & are just burning through cash reserves. ( examples. Mt Gibson Iron, Atlas Iron, BC Iron & most likely even Fortescue).
If the Iron Ore price rises though ?…well RIO’s share price will climb more % than BHP’s….purely because of less diversification from its iron ore.
Cheers.
Yup, 49% iron ore!
thanks Skeeta…………appreciate the info………….jootb
RIO and GOLDCORP will most likely be around 12 months from now whereas some of the smaller miners perhaps will not be. But, as you say, the big climbs will come from the smaller miners. It comes down to how brave you are to buy the smaller miners if/when the price of gold/silver enters the bloodbath phase.
thanks BOB.
Goldcorp did very well when gold rose at the start of 2014. OK, Goldcorp did not rise as sharply as the junior miners but Goldcorp is a major gold miner and it is likely to be around still in 12 months even if the price of gold goes much lower.
RIO is a major miner with vast global deposits in various minerals and is seemingly a take-over target. On the UK forum that I am on which monitors RIO we tend to see it as a buy around the £27 mark before it tends to go back up to around the £36 mark. Rinse, repeat.
It is having trouble getting back down to the £27 mark currently though due to all the take-over talk. Annoying really as the fall in the price of the metals was making it drfit down nicely until the take-over talk reared its head.
Matthew, I’ve been with Goldcorp for more years than I can remember. Current holdings under half of when I first bought them, so they’ll be the first to go when PMs rise with any significance. Smaller companies like Exeter and Silvercrest are the ones likely to offer mega returns when the bull finally rears up.
Andrew……..nice input……..thanks…………………….j……..
Andrew, I feel we need to be careful with smaller miners due to hostile environment. If silver stays this low for extended period of time, most silver miners will dilute themselves to nothing and some will disappear even silver eventually comes back. Some gold miners will be the same. Holder profitable large mines are safer. If you look at companies like SilverCrest, their cost is rising at double digit (I saw something like 40% per year). Some is due to true cost and some due to credit from other metals declining. However their revenue is down hughly. Wait for their Q4 result. Unbelievable. Unsustainable. They may have to rely on loans to continue. However, all loans come with conditions attached, so even silver rises, banks can capture big share of the company. So it is why we see most of them reach only fraction of their old high after a long bear market. I currently rely on silver more as leverage to gold. I feel it is much safer. I have been puzzled by the poor performance of miners relative to gold, I now feel that it is justified. They are printing shares quicker than FED printing money.
Hi Andrew, I agree that the juniors are far more appealing right now, but everything has its place. GG has actually performed well, all things considered. No producing miner of size has avoided bear market pain, but GG fared better than most.
As you can see on the following chart, the time to sell GG for XRA was October 6.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=GG:XRA&p=W&yr=5&mn=3&dy=0&id=p04712448087&a=376508303
If you want pounds for your GG, wait for it to come back based on that. However, if you want another miner for your GG, you should sell when it looks like it has peaked priced in that miner.
Would you believe that GG went up 962% between 4/2010 and 10/2014 when priced in XRA? It is currently up “just” 608% —meaning that XRA is up 43% since October 6 when priced in GG.
SVLC is currently up 22% since 10/6 when priced in GG but is still down 30% from its Feb. 2014 GG high.
Wow thanks Matthew!
the PROFESSOR , knows his stuff……………
YEP!
Just so we all know what we’re dealing with….AIG Chairman Henry Miller openly admitted on Fox news or some such that the banksters were just too stupid to know what was going on, rather than committing major crime. Max Keiser interviews Matt Taibbi 12 mins into programme.
Not all banksters are created equal. The important ones knew exactly what they were up to. I’ll watch the clip now… Thanks!
Gary, please clarify. You stated if markets drop, it would not be good for gold. Then, you said that in order for gold to be positive liquidity must flow from market that is topping. Confused!
Chico, I don’t know if Gary will agree or not, but barring a crash, I think that a falling stock market will be good for the gold sector. For example:
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$HUI&p=D&st=2000-11-15&en=2002-05-11&id=p21394493889&a=376513785
Deist is very aware….. one of the very few. Rand P is not presidential….but who in the field is…? Very pertinent interview.. he should be on the major media…
Thanks for yet another thought provoking weekend show guys,
It is much appreciated,
Cheers.
Martin Armstrong. Nov 15. The metals bottomed during the week of November 3rd on schedule. It now appears if we achieve that rally we outline in the International Precious Metals Outlook, then a high on that seasonal target would tend to warn that we will decline to new lows once more falling into the Benchmark targets.
MA had directional weekly changes at the 27th of Oct and 10th-17th of November. Next one is 1st January.
MA directional changes indicate a rally to years end and then a turn back down on the 1st of January. Glen and Matt are suggesting a rally until this months end and then down into the new year. Its going to be interesting.
Hi biggus, I actually think that a rally into year-end is a little more likely but I would prefer the scenario depicted on the chart I put up.
Biggus,
Im in line with marty. Not to far off. I know and i feel from the gut we need to break 1100. It will happen in due time.
Remember nothing has changed with my investments. I’ve been as clear as possible.
Long term=Remain in tact and have not sold anything. I add if we break below 1100 and continue to add appropriately. I only have so much reserves I can play with.
Trading=Currently out but going to step back in asap. I want to get some of this juice and pop we are going to get. I’ve been clear on why i pick month end as a date to get out. From a technical stand point there are gaps above that look like they will fill with this move. When i say gaps i mean across the board on miners/hui/xau. Typically we have rallied in the past around this time into feb/march/april.. But this will not happen I believe. When I say we rally towards month end its due to the timeline/swiss vote. I have been in the game long enough to know that you buy a rumour and sell the news. They won’t catch me holding the bag empty. I will sell before that vote. They may run it passed that date to sucker more in and then i could see marty’s call on that turn around end of december/first of january to wipe out the remaining bulls. Again i stress patience and more patience. We will get a buying opportunity of a lifetime. If one can’t stomach the trading then just sit back until she breaks 1100. When it happens is timely with armstrongs call. JJ has been a big advocate of his. Now marty in not 100 perfect. He is known to get you out before a bigger rally and get you in before the big move. You can’t ask for a better deal.
The million dollar question id like to know is what is that high date he speaks of in the seasonal target? Is it January biggus or is it a later date mid year and then down into final low 2015.75? If one has the answer share :).
I have my top end of month and then we shall see.
I meant to say marty is not always 100% perfect.
Anyone in here a subscriber to marty armstrong?
Glen, Sorry for the delay but being in Asia are in the opposite timescale from you. Marty mentions that a low in gold below 1000 between 9/2015 and 3/2016 will indicate a final low and resumption of the bull run.
Biggus how did you get that information? As far as the free website i have never seen that. Do you have a subscription with him?
Thanks, they say living in asia is the wave of the future. Certain countries
Listened to Jim Rickards today via podcast,
For those who are interested in his views on the tug of war between inflation & deflation etc…..well, heres the link.
Cheers.
Glen…i bought the metals report. I live in KL and work in the Oil Industry.
Biggus, thx..
How long does it take to get the report? I hear that it is emailed to you.
yes, 2-3 days
Thanks Biggus..
What are your thoughts with gold from here? It’s doing exactly what i said, however im leaning of getting out soon. Before options expiry. I don’t trust this move one bit.
Its a rather lengthy read glen.
These weekend shows are the perfect companion on Saturday mornings with a coup of coffee while the wife and kids still asleep. Quality time it is. Keep up the good work.