Doc is back!
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Ha ha,
That’d be like a Hard Assets version of “Finnegan’s Wake”.
Doc
You have said the gold stocks are going to be a good buy ever since May-2014,
sounds like a broken record every week. You keep saying next week next week, and here we are 6 months later and considerably lower. Sooner or later you will be right.
Peter
Peter,
Watch the miners they are leading. In fact they are doing the exact opposite of what they were doing in Oct. At that time they were not confirming the move up in gold and sure enough it wasn’t long before gold broke down to new bear market lows.
Now they are doing the exact opposite. Despite slightly lower gold prices (although still above $1180) the miners are up significantly and on heavy volume.
It looks to me like the miners are trying to tell us that gold has formed an intermediate bottom.
Gary,
Have you ever stopped to think that’s what they want you to believe? To me they are simply filling in gaps that were left in place a week ago. Counter trends are always going to happen but still to many bulls for my liking. Today is a clear example of a forum filled with gold caps and to the moon. Im just saying the dollar looks strong to me and like it wants to break out not down.
Peter, you’re correct. They’re probably now and have been a buy for the last month. The problem is some of them could still be bought for a lower price. It depends on what stocks you’re looking to buy. As mentioned, I’ve begun to buy certain stocks but have been very selective. Even if you buy here, you could still have some movement down in some but to buy right at the very bottom is a very difficult proposition for some.
I might add that a bottom for some stocks were put in May and they had a move up and then took support out. As I mention many times I’m personally looking for a bottom technically but will then leave that position if support is broken. I ‘ve done that over the year but finally have a couple of large positions in 2 stocks that form a trading range at a definite bottom. I’m waiting for that scenario for a lot of these other stocks that have broken down slower. You might say that Gary’s intermediate cycle could be very stretched for a lot of these stocks and gold. The weekly momentum indicators are starting to turn for some of the stocks but not others. Selectivity is key.
Yes, labor costs are increasing, but increased wages will not result in increase d disposable income (inflation) because their wages will be garnished via government mandated health care insurance–Obama Care. The little guy ncan’t win for losing….
Also, the deflation of oil is more about a global economy going to sleep than anything else. As oil continues to slide it shuts down companies using costly extraction methods–shale oil and fracking comes to mind. Once these companies go bankrupt with their junk bonds sitting on the balance sheets of the Wall Street ‘banks’ too big to fail, it will be the same old song and dance all over again as with mortgage backed securities (bailouts up the ying-yang) for the ‘banks’; followed by rising oil prices as supplies are constricted–and round and round we go.
Obama Care is the worst of possible outcome if the goal is universal health care in that it is a hybrid of crony capitalists in bed with government regulators—sort of like the Wall Street ‘banks’ and the SEC and the Fed. The theft never ends for everyday people who work hard and play by the rules. The robber barons in this case are the insurance companies.
Sorry about the paragraph structure:
Para 3 should follow para 1 and
Para 2 should close.
Old age setting in I suppose.
Gary
The miners put in and swing low two weeks ago on a weekly chart and confirmed last Friday.
That’s MY HUMBLE OPINION.
Gary I agree with your observations 100%.
Don’t know want Doc has based his opinions on, surely not technicals?
Peter
Well he did say he has been buying some mining stocks. He’s just being cautious.
Anybody watching gdxj…………….
J….THE LONG
Yes went long the middle of last week on GDXJ and GDX.
Daily and weekly look very positive.
Peter
it looks like it turned on Nov 5…….I think you made a wise decision…….
oh, thanks for the follow up………..j
J….THE LONG
I pick up my signals of the weekly charts and lean on the daily for my focus and support levels to make sure everything is going well. Late Friday we had a confirming weekly candle on the close of the the week, lots of daily up candles with heavy volume, very positive signals.
Peter
Peter,,,,,,,,,,thanks again……..very informative and appreciate the input……j.
Lots of luck J….THE LONG.
Peter
Off topic. Uranium is going up. Spot is at 44 and long term 60.
miners are trade nothing more. There are still far too many newsletters who have not capitulated.
Several have this last week but there are still far too many retails left in. I bought like I said I woud throughout the last few days.
But they are are trade to get my capital back and keep freebies by not taking profit. I always ell enough to get my costs back. Then they can sit for years with no cost….
free shares nothing more…
Ken, excellent observation. The odds are that this current move will be another trade.
Ken
Different strokes for different folks.
That’s what makes the world go around.
Peter
You guys have got to fix the echo. Come on guys.
I missed you, doc. I’m not knowledgeable enough to be selective, so I’m patiently waiting for the word on when to back up the truck on GDX and GDXJ!
cmc, I started nibbling on gdx and gdxj last week when away with Al. I don’t back up the truck until they start trading in a range and I can get them at the low end of the trading range as configured by the lower bollinger band. I have taken a position but not an “all in” position.
Doc.
This interview did not mentioning about a conventional market. I would like to know your opinions please. The elliot wave,megaphone patten,oversold that everybody is talking about but they are going up and up.
Billy, I believe one of the key charts is the Russell 2000. It appears to be forming a triple top. In fact, yesterday, it broke down. The dow and S&P are looking weak currently and appear to be topping again. There are factors on the VIX that tell me we’re setting up for some more volatility in the near future. I’m long volatility currently and it’ll be fear that sets in again and not greed. We’re setting up for another pullback in the conventional markets but it may only be another pullback in an ongoing bull market. Your right about the megaphone pattern. In fact it took out the megaphone on the uptrend line. A lot of technicians would feel that it is now a support line and we’re going much higher. I would be very careful about that view. Usually, the third and fourth years of a presidential 4 year term is positive for the conventional market but this market is very long in the tooth. You probably meant that the elliot wave and megaphone pattern is very overbought instead of oversold. Once again, i believe the Russell 2000 along with some other technicals are starting to show a bias to topping for the Dow, etc. As I also said, the VIX shows some technicals that tell me we’re going to have some volatility again in the near future.
It is interesting to note that the dollar went up a substantial 11% from 2/05/2010 to 6/07/2010 yet gold was still able to rise 19.3% at the same time.
Currently, gold is up 5% since November 7 even though the dollar has gone nowhere.
Year-to-date, gold is down just 1.5% even though the dollar is up about 9.5% —not bad.
Gold did not come close to making a new low when priced in the basket of currencies used to measure the dollar.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$GOLD:UDN&p=W&yr=3&mn=0&dy=0&id=p88357272705&a=376633968
Matthew, that’s correct. There is one positive signalling a bottom in a lot of these precious metals which I’ve mentioned a couple of weeks ago—–VOLATILITY and VOLUME. Otherwise, there are a lot of technicals for them to overcome before we see a significant move up. As in the spring when the warming was given that the 50 day MA was approaching price and folks better be careful; I would repeat that warning again. Gold is currently not affirming this move since its’ momentum is still down. But we know that the stocks often move prior and hopefully that’ll be true this time. Gold is up nicely this early morning as I type. If it continues, it’ll probably start confirming the move up by some of these miners.
Big Al Korelin,
Did you buy that silver yet?
Can you sign me up for that fancy new newsletter?
e d d y . e b o l a n at y a h o o . c o m
Thanks
Ditto as to signing me up for the Newsletter! Highest Regards.
Did anyone receive the newsletter as Big Al said ?
…..I didn’t? ?????
I haven’t!!
Yes, came in late monday afternoon..
Gold (as of yesterday’s close):
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$GOLD&p=W&yr=3&mn=0&dy=0&id=p23293611732&a=376855161
Now，it is gold bears who wonder what to do
Al,
I would like to sign up for the Newsletter. Is there charge? Thank you.
Welcome back DOC…..I had to keep the punters amused while you were away….
some of them were on the verge of having a whip around for your wake….haha