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It would appear that the dollar has to move.

Big Al
November 17, 2014

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Discussion
55 Comments
    Nov 17, 2014 17:46 AM

    All day today in the UK the BBC and Sky News have been running stories about how weak the EU economies are and how they are going to get weaker in the months ahead.

    Europe is an economic basket-case right now.

      Nov 17, 2014 17:55 AM

      I went to UK, France and Italy this summer. UK looks calm but Italy looks pretty bad.

        Nov 17, 2014 17:10 AM

        Lawrence…I was in France things are getting very edgy there as well.

          Nov 17, 2014 17:01 AM

          I was only travelling. London gives me a nice feeling of clean and calm. It is not as fancy as Italy and France but it seems well thought out and much newer. Paris feels a little tired and Italy shows the typical signs of economic stress. The sight seeing is great and I love the entire trip. However, I do run into many small incidents in Italy which caused some unpleasant memories.

      Nov 17, 2014 17:25 AM

      FWIW conditions always look bad before a turn. So who knows if Europe is at a bottom and ready to turn up.

      Nov 17, 2014 17:30 PM

      Interesting that everyone is covering the weakness in the EU. I think that before any major collapse the ECB will get the power to actually print Euros rather than just talking about printing.

        Nov 17, 2014 17:13 PM

        Fully agree. If a major country wants out, they will try at least once

    Nov 17, 2014 17:06 AM

    BOB…..2015 is the year the EU falls apart…The people have had enough, & the powers that be are running out excuses & sticky tape . Re Russia I can not see them imposing any more sanctions , despite what Obama wants……..
    If Putin was to cut off the gas valves the Euro would drop faster than a whores knickers….Cameron & the Tories are getting very nervous about whats happening in Europe right now. I get the feeling they are going to try & distance themselves from the mess.

      Nov 17, 2014 17:08 AM

      Tony, question: Did the UK pay that EU bill from a couple of weeks ago? Cameron made a big fuss about how he’s not going to pay it, but the story seems to have been buried by the media.

        Nov 17, 2014 17:17 AM

        Depends whom you believe. Officially we are not paying it. Unofficially the EU is saying that we were due a rebate in the next year so the rebate will pay the bill.

        Toss a coin on what means.

          Nov 17, 2014 17:22 AM

          BOB..You got in just ahead of me , but we are both saying the same thing.

        Nov 17, 2014 17:20 AM

        chris.. My understanding is they claim to have had it cut in half (which they are allowed to pay in instalments )…but I believe what really happened was , they were due for a rebate next year , which makes up for the other half , if you understand what I am saying….So once again the liar Cameron fooled the British public…..well the majority who spend most of there time watching football & reality TV.. …..hope that helps.

          Nov 17, 2014 17:22 AM

          Thanks Tony and Bob.

      Nov 17, 2014 17:42 AM

      I don’t know Europe that much. My mind understands Asia far more than I understand Europe. I think there are two major problems with EU. First, there are too much socialism in the system. Second, the disparity is too large. This wide range of self interest and rich and poor usually can only be held by force. However, Europe is tired of being ordered around by US, especially Germany and France. There is a desire to say no to US. But EU seems to cause more problem than it solves.

    Nov 17, 2014 17:08 AM

    Cory, that was a good question about what would turn the dollar down if Europe and Asia are still under pressure. Gary had a good response that it would be sentiment, but typically sentiment is combination of fundamentals and momentum. Right now they still both favor a strong dollar, but a black swan could change that.

    The grind down in oil has zapped the commodities complex as a whole. Once oil bottoms, and the Euro bottoms, and the dollar tops, then we’ll be set up for a run in the PMs.

      Nov 17, 2014 17:38 PM

      I agree Shad, Gary’s answer was very good. Sentiment can be a driver in any industry and the dollar is no different. There seem to be a lot of people calling for turns in major markets. Gold, oil, US markets, USD, Euro…

    Nov 17, 2014 17:13 AM

    :-O

    Nov 17, 2014 17:20 AM

    😮 ?

      Nov 17, 2014 17:33 AM

      😉 😮
      :<

        Nov 17, 2014 17:40 AM

        😐

          Nov 17, 2014 17:43 AM

          Matthew-Mark…..Has the cat got your tongues………..haha

    Nov 17, 2014 17:46 AM

    Say something Mark, Tony is giving up on you!
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VVgixOjGhVU

    Nov 17, 2014 17:33 AM

    I would like a copy of the newsletter. How do I go about receiving it?

    Nov 17, 2014 17:06 PM

    The German Finance Minister was just interviewed on UK Channel 4 News and talked about QE not being the answer to Europe’s problems because it would not solve the structural problems. Which is true.

    The Germans are very opposed to QE in Europe because of their memories of hyperinflation in the 1920s. So Germany is continuing to put a brake on QE in Europe and probably will continue to do so for many months to come at least.

    So it is hard to see how the Euro will get stronger against the Dollar – if anything is going to weaken the USD surely it has to come from the US side?

      Nov 17, 2014 17:35 PM

      Bob….I think it is getting to the stage were Germany will start cosying up to the Russians ,,they don’t want any more sanctions against Russia its hurting their economy too much , that & having to suffer & bail out the rest of the basket case country’s in Europe . I believe the only thing keeping them tied to the EU is all the blackmailing coming from the US…that & the fact that they are scared they will not get their gold back if they jump ship too soon.

        Nov 17, 2014 17:59 PM

        Germany and Russia are long-time enemies so it is hard to see any longterm benefit for them in such a relationship.

        However, one could argue that since 2008 the Germans have manipulated and controlled EU economic policy to their enormous benefit whilst beggaring many of the other EU countries. Maybe they will now think it is time to bail out?

        If they did there would be global economic shockwaves and the end of the Euro. The Euro would not rally against the Dollar. It would not exist.

        Anyhow, all of the above is a HUGE ‘if’ that may or may not happen sometime in the future. In the next 6 months if what I am focussing on. In fact, not even that long – the next few weeks.

    Nov 17, 2014 17:07 PM

    Did Doc retire from the daily editorials?

      Nov 17, 2014 17:41 PM

      Don’t worry Matt, Doc is back! We will be continuing our normal schedule this week.

        Nov 17, 2014 17:35 PM

        BOB….Merkel will say one thing , & do something different.

    Nov 17, 2014 17:01 PM

    Guys, what if ECB buys gold instead of sovereign bonds for collateral (as European constitution prohibits ECB to monetize local gov’t bonds) + JPM says buy Europe and sell USA? What will happen?

    Sources:
    http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-11-17/ecb-says-may-buy-gold-stocks-next
    http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-11-17/jpmorgans-5-reasons-sell-usa-buy-europe

      Nov 17, 2014 17:01 PM

      I think they are just being sarcastic.

        Nov 17, 2014 17:05 PM

        Look at Switzerland, their central bank is fighting tooth and nail against buying gold. They are supposed to be the most gold friendly country. Buying gold is like challenging US dollar. Maybe they are trying to threaten US to get some bargaining chips.

          Nov 17, 2014 17:20 PM

          They probably know that the country is already choc full of gold bars with Nazi swastikas on them?

            Nov 17, 2014 17:37 PM

            HaHa….Bob

            Nov 17, 2014 17:55 PM

            LOL.. Nice

          Nov 17, 2014 17:04 PM

          You could be right Lawrence… I just cannot believe the ECB can do any full-blown QE with Germany controlling the Euro… that’s quite a gridlock… maybe a break up of north and south before there could be a kind of QE? Have just been trying to guess what ECB can do as local gov’t bond is not an option…

    Nov 17, 2014 17:20 PM

    So far so good. Juniors up over 4% today. If the miners can deliver 5-6% by Wednesday or Thursday I think we’ll have confirmation of an intermediate bottom.

      Nov 17, 2014 17:26 PM

      If gold goes down, they will lose this 5-6% in no time and a lot more. It happened so many times. Gold stock is so mindless.

        Nov 17, 2014 17:36 PM

        I tend to think if gold was going to go back down the miners would be acting poorly like they were in Oct. Now they are doing the exact opposite.

          Nov 17, 2014 17:43 PM

          Well, this is to say, if the horse is going to go backward later, the cart should go backward now. I don’t quite get this logic. It has been said so many times and never stop gold from going down. The relationship is stock following gold not the other way around.

          Nov 17, 2014 17:48 PM

          I believe Miners are oversold relative to gold. If gold stays flat, miners will go up. There is nothing more than that.

          Nov 17, 2014 17:59 PM

          YOu got an interesting point Gary… I remember the time Gold lost $1287 as you pointed out but Junior did follow for a short while until gold passed $1240 or something and the junior was in free fall…. stlll there was another time after that when gold and only it was up while minors/silver did not follow…. and gold was striked through 1180… later… will see gold or miners is right this time.

      Nov 17, 2014 17:39 PM

      Gary… for what its worth….I think they will.

    Nov 17, 2014 17:33 PM

    Speaking of mindless,I often wonder why the world goes along with this strong dollar nonsense in respects to the Euro -creation?
    Seemed very timely for the banksters and their bosses to have created that currency when the US was topping out.
    Just another tool in the toolbox of destruction and control.

    Nov 17, 2014 17:42 PM

    Matt…..Its “ALL” about the US dollar…always has been….always will be……….
    Until ASIA changes the game…& that is fast approaching.

    Nov 17, 2014 17:41 PM

    Hello to all the Intelligentsia on the internet. Is Denis the Lawyer still on this website? I am seeking his wisdom on inflation and the debasement of American hard work. I need to make some life decisions soon.

    Nov 18, 2014 18:38 AM

    Gdxj up 5% yesterday and a further 4% afterhours. Looks like a decent rally has started.