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You are very lucky if you actually call a bottom or a top at the absolute moment.

Big Al
November 18, 2014

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Discussion
32 Comments
    Nov 18, 2014 18:27 AM

    This is NOT about the $ anymore.

    Gold and the $ can rise or fall together.

    THIS IS ABLUT THE YEN CARRY TRADE ON IN SPADES.

    Cory – gold will not fall $25 again during this up cycle until we really start to build momentum and the late comers join the party

      Nov 18, 2014 18:53 AM

      I agree 100%. Just look at gold in yen…

      http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24GOLD:$xjy

        Nov 18, 2014 18:58 PM

        If gold in yen confirms break out, gold capping operation to prevent Japanese to buy gold is lost.

      Nov 18, 2014 18:15 PM

      I hope you are right James. All I was saying is that if it does happen from a level around where we are now it will turn many people negative very quickly.

    bb
    Nov 18, 2014 18:43 AM

    Well, a raging 5-6 year bull might get me close to even. lol

      Nov 18, 2014 18:31 PM

      Did you buy over 1800?

      Nov 18, 2014 18:16 PM

      There are many in the same boat as you bb.

    Nov 18, 2014 18:57 AM

    $SPTGD:GLD just broke above the downtrend line that began 3 years, 11 months ago.
    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPTGD:GLD&p=W&yr=5&mn=3&dy=0&id=p86379783017&a=374058646

      Nov 18, 2014 18:36 AM

      Hi Matthew, do you mean bullish but there is a gap to be aware of below?

      Nov 18, 2014 18:20 AM

      I don’t know if you can see this chart the way it’s supposed to look since (I think) you need a subscription to see a 60 minute chart, but it shows GDXJ gapping up and out of its 2 week channel and hitting pitchfork resistance before coming within 2 cents of the breakdown area low at 29.57. Considering all that and a 60 min chart RSI of 75, this would be a good area for traders to take profits. However, the move could extend another couple of dollars before taking a break. If it does, I will trim positions further.

        Nov 18, 2014 18:20 PM

        Interesting chart Matthew. The RSI is one that I would be watching the most closely, it can not stay up there for too much longer. It is nice to see higher volume for the up hours.

        Nov 18, 2014 18:03 PM

        Oh.. crap.. you’re right.. thank you for explaining in words!

    Nov 18, 2014 18:30 AM

    Gold (GLD) is up about 5% from its recent low while GDXJ is up 32%. This 6 to 1 leverage is very bullish.

    Nov 18, 2014 18:42 AM

    bb you will get even a lot faster than 5 or 6 years

    Remember when confidence is gone the confidence game is up

    Nov 18, 2014 18:42 AM

    Cory I agree with you 100%.The stock market is about to take a free fall and that’s deflationary and does not bode well for the metals.What will happen then is that the fed after seeing the stock market take the first hit will launch qe4 (january 2015)to lift it up again and that would catapult pm .In other words the pms have not reached the bottom yet.

    Nov 18, 2014 18:05 AM

    Don the stock market does not have to fall
    That’s a lost cause now

    Stocks are an inflation hedge

    Japan lit the fuse

    It’s the yen carry trade blitz

    Buy everything

      Nov 18, 2014 18:21 AM

      I bet you are right James. A lot of people don’t appreciate the power of central banks. Deflation is the last thing I will predict when they will do whatever it takes to inflate.

        Nov 18, 2014 18:59 AM

        You’re right, Lawrence. Even the Japanese have not enjoyed a falling general price level or a shrinking money supply —far from it!

          Nov 18, 2014 18:32 PM

          Interesting comments above, gentlemen!

      Nov 18, 2014 18:32 PM

      stock rally are gonna fall imminently.You can bet your a@@ on that james.Look at technicals.They are all screaming sell.Al in oversold territory.My 2 cents.

        Nov 18, 2014 18:19 PM

        I have to agree with you, though I’m not going to guess how large the decline might be.

    Nov 18, 2014 18:40 PM

    Sorry for the typo guys.What I meant is that stock market is gonna correct soon.The drop down will tell me if it is just a correction or a change in trend.All depends if it is a 3 wave correction or a 5 wave impulse.Beware guys.It is all I got to say.

      Nov 18, 2014 18:05 PM

      It has been over bought for years. Economic fundamentals does not justify this price. But liquidity pushes it up. Fed wants wealth effect. If stock crashes, they have nothing to rely on. I think they will do whatever to avoid a crash.

        Nov 18, 2014 18:29 PM

        Martin Armstrong is predicting 30K for DOW before this is all over in the next year or two. I think it is high but it could be close, somewhere 27, 28 or so.

          Nov 18, 2014 18:26 PM

          I’ll say 29.5K but there will need to be a correction first. 😉

            Nov 18, 2014 18:04 PM

            For that I agree, I have been waiting for the correction for 8 months and almost got one last month. This is ridiculous.

          Nov 18, 2014 18:45 PM

          Lawrence yes he is but he is also predicting a good correction soon from what I gather.

    Nov 18, 2014 18:17 PM

    I think Cory and Big Al FELL OFF THE GOLG WAGON.

    Peter

    Nov 18, 2014 18:18 PM

    GOLD WAGON.

    Peter

      Nov 18, 2014 18:23 PM

      We are just a bit skeptical right now Peter. As least for the short term.

    Nov 18, 2014 18:48 PM

    Cory, if you had technical knowledge you would be getting in, or you are telling your listeners different while you are entering.

    Peter