Tuesday and The Doctor Is In
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Here’s what I said on the 7th:
On November 7, 2014 at 2:48 pm,
Matthew says:
Stewie, GDXJ picked an interesting level to reverse from this week (see chart). The extraordinary volume spike is just what we want see at a major turn.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=GDXJ&p=W&yr=5&mn=0&dy=0&id=p77959343309&a=371238287
Btw, take another look at that chart. GDXJ is at an important resistance on the weekly chart just as it is on the little 60 minute chart. Caution!
RICHARD RUSSELL has a take on gdxj……..a buy at 35 to 37….in case of hyperinflation.
article at kwn….today
In case of hyper inflation, you’d better to hold gold then gold equities. No company can run profitable business in hyperinflation
j….the long ………..always advocates the physical first………
gdxj…….is like a box of chocolates, you never know what you are getting………Forest semi Gump…………
Matt,
Yes you did and great job! You have been absolutely fantastic on your calls recently. A stated got in early this morning as far as trading goes but have the trigger to sell anytime on a dime. This thing should take a breather soon.
Thanks glen, I wish I could always get it right. My mistakes are hard to forget!
Matt,
No one is perfect. They key is to win more then we lose. The more I look at the charts and specifically this volume, the more im incline to believe we have an ICL as gary has stated. The volume speaks louder then words. The day closed on very import key numbers and below some resistance. Now we would have to wait for confirmation as to see if this is the real deal. Have your key numbers matt been met with the miners/hui/xau etc as far as a longer term push?
I never had numbers chiseled in stone, but gold did finally go to my “worst case scenario” of 1155-1125 that I first mentioned here in 2013. I try to let the market tell me what I should do and I never enter or exit the sector all at once.
It’s hard to find much wrong with the action right now, so I will attempt to bet against my core positions appropriately when I think I should rather than selling too much on the way up. If this low holds through the end of the year, I don’t think it will be taken out later. It wouldn’t surprise me if Martin Armstrong ends up revising his forecast many moths before his 2015-16 window for a new low.
Whatever happens, there will be plenty of opportunities for traders that like volatility.
Go, Peter. I hope you’re correct.
Doc
We need to wait 3 months and see gold at $1400 before we know a bottom is in??
By then the ship will have already left.
Conservative is one thing, but that’s beyond the beyond
It’s true that the PM stocks may have left the station—and that’s why I’ve been taking some small positions. I’m waiting for a lot of these stocks to form some sideways trading and breakouts before adding. I guess I’m from Missouri when I say gold has to take out the monthly bollinger band 20 month MA for me to be comfortable we’re in good shape. Having said that, I’m not waiting on adding to my stock positions when I see certain technicals.
T. RIC, it looks like you were right on this stock, Doc.
DT—-fortunately, I got in the bottom since I liked the fundamentals, the story, and the technicals. I’ve added a little as it climbs and satisfies some of the technicals I look at. It’s one of the best stocks right now from a fundamental standpoint and if things continue to move smoothly for the company has a long ways to go on the upside—-especially when the price of gold turns around. It’s one of my long term holds—–unless it reverses technically.
DITTO ON THE SHIP LEAVING
Peter congratulations to you!
I said right here under docs interview that same Friday november 7th…
On November 7, 2014 at 3:15 pm,
James (the lesser) says:
I think today’s gold rally was very powerful on what seemed to be quite day in all other respects.
These bear market has seen these rallies only to fade.
A pullback next week might need once again this was just a premature move.
If one the other hand we add to the gains on Monday with more upside I think you could then make a good case that the tide has turned
Reply to this comment
Well we got more upside the following week and the tide did indeed turn!
Pete and James; I hope you guys are correct. If these companies can continue to ratchet down their “all in costs” and maintain their liquidity, even somewhat lower gold prices won’t affect them any longer. It’s going to take some ups and downs for a lot of them before they have sustained gains. However, for the patient folks out there, it’ll be worth it.
It is just the price of paper identified as gold or silver denominated in ounces. It is not real metal. I think the paper price is academic if no one or too few would sell at the paper price. Not all who have the goods are parties to contracts to buy or sell at a specified price and can not be bound to the terms of some one else’s contracts.
A contract is only binding upon those who sign the contract and agree to its terms. Those out side of a futures contract that have the goods can not be compelled to abide by the terms of someone else’s contract. The market and its insiders presume that everyone is bound by the futures contracts created by themselves and their clients. I would say that those contracts could only be binding on the signatories.
Everyone else does not have to buy or sell at a price they disagree to and should have the freedom to decide their own price policy in respect to their property.
CRJ is up 136% since last year at this time and 103% since June of this year and it is just getting started.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=CRJ.TO&p=W&yr=5&mn=3&dy=0&id=p49573716023&a=373914878
Matthew, the daily, weekly and monthly charts look great. Those are the kind of technicals I like to see in a stock. Doc.
Matthew – After you mentioned Claude, I did my research and averaged in @ $0.20 for my core shares. The discrepancy between the company fundamentals and share price is extraordinary. Look at these stats: Price: $0.25, Forward eps 0.16, P/E = 1.6, Price/Book: 0.39 , Average grade = 8.8 g/t, Ounces per year = 80K ~ Brian
I was going to look further into this company and then forgot to—-just purchased some shares. The daily and weekly charts are very similar to the company I purchased this spring that has currently a 150% gain.
When I calculate “forward” eps, it is the most current quarter return (0.04) x 4 quarters = 0.16. Just wanted to clarify.
Brian, Doc — I don’t know if either of you caught the conference call recently, but it was worth the time. Sounds like management intends to re-list in the U.S. eventually, which would be a good thing as a new bull get going. Some people won’t touch anything OTC regardless of the circumstances.
Agreed. When Alexco changed to “AXU” the price really took off, with little or no change in fundamentals. Sadly, AXU may be headed for a 5-character ticker symbol.
It all depends on the silver price. I just bought a lot more AXU into recent weakness. I think it will be fine.
GO LONG AND FORGET IT…………….THE ROCKET FUEL IS BEING FILLED IN THE TANK.
CONVENTIONAL MARKET COLLAPSE MAYBE IMMINENT!!!
– We hit a bear trend in the 5 hour chart on S&P500, and the Plunge Protection Team step in;
– S&P500 is trading now at an overbouht level on the hourly chart;
– No big news is driving the conventional market at least;
– Palestinians kill four in Jerusalem synagogue attack, could spark a big war.
I’ve been accumulating puts selectively.
Perma bears have been trying to call a top in the stock market for 4 years now. Every time we get an intermediate degree correction analysts come out of the wood work and fall all over themselves calling a final top. They have been wrong every single time.
I just don’t think we can have a final top until we have a true bubble phase. Every time the Fed goes through a printing phase a bubble forms somewhere. In 2000 it was tech stocks. In 2005 & 6 it was real estate. In 2008 it was oil. Now it is clearly going to be in the general stock market. People have to stop trying to call a top until we get the bubble phase. That means the S&P stretched 15-30% above the 200 day moving average in a true parabolic move.
And it’s just senseless to call a top before the Fed has even done QE4 yet. There’s just no way for stocks to form a final top until after the Fed does QE4.
It’s a trade for me. I’ve never bet against this bull market until very recently (successfully).
I don’t know if it’s the final top or not.
Gary, I believe you are right. We WILL see a bubble phase bigger than 1995-2000 this time around. The condition is ripe for a super bubble. Otherwise where are those printed money going. We are in a sea of liquidity and bankers have all of it. They will use it to buy all the assets, even gold.
I think if people figure they gotta wait 2-4 weeks they are playing with money they cant afford to lose. Try betting smaller maybe?
Some shares I look at would double/triple or better if gold went to 1400 from here.
To each his own of course but I never forget everything about these markets are crooked, criminal if we had regulators.
Just our luck a crash comes and the goldstocks get chucked out with everything else just as they finally get going. Or the broker takes the cash or ……
There is no doubt that an intermediate bottom is in. It’s going to take more time before we can tell if this is also a final bear market bottom.
Gary,
You stated on your blog in the post section the following..
At this point all the signs are saying we have an intermediate bottom. Those typically rally at least 6-8 weeks before topping even if it’s just a bear market rally. If this is the start of a new bull market then it will rally for 12-15 weeks.
Now what would be day one of the starting point you are using? November 5th was the lowest gold close? The 6th was the lowest intraday close for gold? Which day would be day 1 of using the formula.
Thank you kindly.
The last day of the cycle occurred on Nov. 7th. that’s when the lowest intrady low occurred. So Nov. 10th was day 1 of a new intermediate cycle.
Thanks Gary very informative.
Gary
Sounds like Cory, Doc, and Big Al all FELL OFF THE GOLD WAGON!!!!
Peter
Peter,
Intermediate declines wreck havoc on traders emotions. They make it very hard to buy. That’s why I prefer cycles analysis and sentiment as my major timing tools. They give me a timing band to be looking for a turn, and usually sentiment will confirm that there are too many bears(case in point the stock/bond ratio I kept quoting back in Oct. as the market was putting in that bottom).
So once an asset enters the timing band for a bottom I then start looking for signs that the turn is occurring. One of those signs is that no one believes the market is turning, no matter how many bells and whistles are going off. They have simply been too emotionally damaged by the recent decline to acknowledge the turn. They are waiting for the next shoe to drop.
Like I always say: At every one of these intermediate bottoms, whether it’s stocks, currencies, gold or whatever, no one ever believes me that the turn is happening. They have to wait until their emotions give them the all clear signal.
Unfortunately that’s usually just about the time we get a short term correction because everyone else’s emotions are telling them the same thing, and that means it’s time for the market to take a breather.
Just watch, traders will remain skeptical for about 3-4 weeks. Every little 1 or 2 day correction will be viewed as the start of the next leg down. Then right about day 15-20 people will start to get bullish and they will start buying because they don’t want to miss any more of the rally. And then what happens around day 15-20 in the gold market? That’s right the daily cycle tops and we get a corrective move.
So all the traders that waited for their emotions to give them the all clear will end up buying right in front of the next daily cycle decline and suffer another drawdown which they will assume is finally the next shoe dropping that they were worried about all along. So they will sell for a loss and then miss the next leg up until their emotions again allow them to buy with the same results as before.
This is how traders lose money buying long in a rising market. I’ve seen it happen over and over and over.
Gary
Technically it is very clear what is happening.
By the way Doc is acting he has also been emotionally damaged. Doc keeps saying his technicals, his technicals. Well Doc it doesn’t get any better than what the technicals are saying!!!!!
Peter
Gary
You are so right with your comment, it’s as if the trio have been hit over the head with a base ball bat. WOW!!!
Peter
Peter can you be more specific as to what indicators or method you used with weekly to confirm that.
Thanks
I keep it simple and the technicals gave clear buy signals starting with the x-minute charts.
Matthew
The daily showed the reversal but i like to see confirmation from the weekly fisrt
and thats what GDX and GDXJ did at the close of last week.
Peter
Peter, since I trade a lot, I can’t ignore the “small” charts and the early signals they provide. It’s like falling dominos; signals on the 5 min lead to the same signals on the 10 min and so on. The “bigger” the chart, the more money I will deploy for a longer term.
and they don’t know how to get back on!
Peter
I bought a couple days ago and figure I could have bought a day or 2 before that.
Im not saying it is but Im putting a little money on gold up.
I figured one I follow was going to 5, it went to 4.5 and its 7 now. (2 days)
Some of these are incredible, I bought 15 dollar shares (peek) for 1.20
so many are 10% of what they were at one time, some pay dividends too.
Being the gambler I am, I believe Im seeing good odds.
Told a friend of mine, gold shares are offering 10-1 or better odds.
At a card table when you have a 4-1 draw that is paying 10-1 your drawing every time.
Sure, you can miss, and you can hit too. lol
Thx Gary for everything, Doc and Chris too, and everybody else.
NICE BUY MILK ! and love the DOLLAR 8 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FvDBqjRsjLI
MA did say that if Gold closed 2014 below 1301 then we should see a lower low in 2015.
Big,
That could very well be the case, but we have an intermediate bottom right now. Even if it’s just a bear market rally those can deliver some big gains in a very short time.
Absolutely right, Gary.
Gary, 100%.. It’s what I have done three times this year already. I don’t trade as many times as matty the professor but i sure as hell don’t miss these Intermediate bottoms. Good advice. Your cycle work is pretty impressive and up there with the best of them.
I agree also Gary,
That said, some (like me) aren’t as nimble in the short term market as You, Matthew, glenfidish etc.
I see your value as well skeeta. Your longer term perspective is always present in between my ears 🙂
Are you guys here to sell news papers or watch the gold train leave the station?
Peter
Peter,
how about both 🙂
Gary deserves credit.
glenfish. LOLOLOL
Peter
Guess what Big Al?
It’s snowing in Semiahmoo!!
Peter
I just bought back a pile GDXJ calls.
which ones Matthew
28 and 28.5 with various expirations out to Dec 26
I also hold GDXJ shares and plenty of juniors and warrants.
Btw, I prefer to buy near the money. The ones I sold yesterday were 24, 24.5, 25, etc strikes.
CONGRATULATIONS TO ME DOC!!! I called the botton 7th november, remember?