Comments on where the gold market is going in the short and mid term
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First up then down..Not down then up. You will lose a big percentage move that way if you trade. Longer term we all know its up 3-5 years from today.
Doc, you have not answered my question? Are you on board or prefer to stay out of this current move up that started november 7th?
Im not trying to be an ass but only understand how you trade.
Thanks..I’ve always respected your thoughts. You have walked more miles then I have and that is a true testament.
Doc, how the H is gold in or as you say still in a bull market?
Lower highs and lower lows have been painting the chart for 3 years!..thats a BEAR market no matter what the chart is…..and people are going to pay for this type of comment, seriously!?!?
Cory ask yourself what has been the #1 driver sending gold lower after every pop….that’s what one needs to be watched as the indicator that gold has left the bear trend behind and actually returned to the sector.
I would say it’s a cyclical bear in a long term secular bull market.
Well a secular bear is made up of smaller bull runs and larger bear runs….that’s gold these past 3 years….a secular bull is larger bull runs and smaller bear runs that the US equity markets.
JJ, one of the interesting charts that tell me we’re still in a secular bull market for gold would be the dow/gold ratio chart. In 1999, the ratio was 44; at the beginning of the cyclical bear run for gold it was about 6. Will we get to 44 anytime soon—-NOTTTTTTTT. The odds are we get to 2 or 1 before that. I believe that gold will probably not start to make a serious run higher again until the 200 month MA intersects pricing—-that 200 month MA is now at about 20.5 while the ratio currently is about 15—-just another insight into some of my thoughts.
Your 20.50 also happens to be the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the entire move down in the ratio. Based on the Fib arcs, I think we can reverse in the current area. Such a reversal, well short of 20.50, would be very bearish for the ratio (bullish for gold/bearish for the Dow) in my opinion.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$INDU:$GOLD&p=M&st=1981-09-06&en=today&id=p24613236895&a=367265006&listNum=1
Yes Richard and look at where the trend ended as money has clearly left the gold sector and headed into US equities since Sept 2011….44 agree not a chance….21 very likely…as global capital continues to flow into the US markets and US$….your a very wealthy European, where you going to put your money Doc, as the European government goes negative rates, higher taxation and even a chance the Euro zone could break up….your heading to NY, SF, London real estate and US equities….that’s been a clear trend for 3 years and nothing the ECB or BOJ is doing will change that trend anytime soon
Three years does not make a secular trend.
no but smaller bull runs and larger bear runs is and that’s been gold for 3 years….every gain on the long side we have made as been inside a larger lower trend and my short positions have been much bigger in % gains even if I nailed the exact turns, which I never do.
Re: “…every gain on the long side we have made as been inside a larger lower trend…”
Yes, during this cyclical bear, I agree.
I love to hear Mr. Doc’s comments every single time. I really appreciate.
It clears my head.
The last three years is what’s called a cyclical bear. Doc is referring to the bigger “secular” trend.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$GOLD&p=M&yr=20&mn=11&dy=30&id=p34310771314&a=367847899
Matthew; correct. I’ll try to be more specific in the future. Of course, when I say it’ll be the longest bull market in history, that infers a secular bull market.
In a fundamental sense, gold has been and will be in a bull market in a long term simply based on unavoidable money printing by governments. Chart agrees with it. In a short term, gold is in a bear market due to its false start in 2011 and most importantly government manipulation. What market it will be in next few weeks, nobody really knows. Knowing this, I have been lighten up when gold rises and add when gold comes down. Long term trend will rescue me even I am wrong. I can hold long term like 10-20 years but GS and JPM cannot.
I certainly can agree with that statement——of course holding 20 years may be a problem for me, but then again; not for my kids.
Thanks Doc. I would rather give to my kids than giving to elietes. We have to fight by our own rules instead of fighting a trench warfare with an army billion times more powerful than us. If we are in a honest monetory system, I would rather save than invest. But the current system constantly transfer wealth from middle class to the super rich since they get all the printed money and we don’t. There is no place to hide other than real asset.
Lawrence, I couldn’t agree more with you. How will they ever get rid of all that printed currency easily. How will they ever rid themselves of all that debt. I always said they shouldn’t have done TARP and the stimulus. Sure, it would have caused some short pain for mainstream (and huge pain for those responsible for our dilemma. Back then when they bailed out the bankers, I felt it would cause chronic pain and we sure know it has and will continue to in the foreseeable future. All that printed money and indebtedness has insured a multi- decade slide.
Im sorry but if you have to wait 20 years for a return then that is a bad investment. Honestly speaking there are many investors that need to adapt to new model and investment era. It aint the “GOOD OLD DAYS”. Trading and investing today has changed a great deal. For me it’s all about what i earn today and not tomorrow. You can invest with a long term perspective but don’t put all your money into that. Investing long term for the past 3 years has been a nightmare.
He who says no is full of it.
I am not sure you full of it mean I cannot do it or it is bad idea. My first 1000oz silver I bought in 2004 is still with me. I bought silver very low from 7.4 to 15. I also loaded some shares in 2008-2009. I sold nearly all my shares in 2010-2011. I also sold some silver from 38-49. From hindsight I sold shares too early and sold silver too little. What I mean 10-20 years is that my span is that long and I am willing to hold long if it does not work. However, I strongly believe there is no free lunch and money printing will result in inflation. Holding for long time you have chance to hit the fast running period like 2003-2011 or 1971-1980. Otherwise you likely come in late and get out late. I only commit long term when I feel fundamental is good. I also has rental property and my own house which worth 6 times more than my gold, silver and related shares. I also have other large cap shares and receive good dividend. I am not only counting on gold and silver. If you do research, there are a lot of great investors like Buffett and Rule who stay with long term trend. I do not think short term trade can make money and I don’t have time for it. I have a high pay job.
lawrence,
I was saying he who doesnt agree about the last three years of losses would be lying. Im not totally against long term holding. 🙂
lawrence my short term trade sometimes is weeks if not months to make profit. Good profit. I don’t trade every minute or hour every day. What ever works for you is ok with me. If you can look back and reflect and say i made good money then that’s all that matters. For myself this buy and hold miners forever is worthless to me. When we do go back up I will be the first one to tell you when im unloading. I don’t stay married to any trade and that includes long term “5+years”..An advice given to me by a very smart,savy and rich investor.
IMHO it looks like gold will creep a wee bit up then correct into a possible bear trap in mid December. I never underestimate tax loss selling as many people don’t even know the rules.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$GOLD&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&id=p94053563521&a=353727366&listNum=1
The current chart looks similar to mid August of this year. Thanks to Matthew for the link to this chart a while back.
Hi Dan, I don’t know if you saw this chart I posted yesterday, but notice that tax-loss selling was not an issue at the last two major lows. (This chart shows the miners priced in gold, but the miners went higher after their November lows when priced in dollars, too.)
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$GDM:$GOLD&p=M&yr=20&mn=11&dy=0&id=p36760036068&a=376487942&listNum=1
Matthew, I guess it was an issue but the strong selling in the 4th quarter, especially December, burried the effect in the last couple of years.
Btw, do Canadians have the same incentive to sell for tax purposes as Americans do?
Yes, every year, there is tax loss selling for the losers. You just don’t know it is late November or early to mid december.
Thanks. I have to think that it is behind us for the most part. The washout probably got as bad as it did because of tax-loss selling. In some cases, I would think that it acted as a catalyst that prompted some to sell earlier and perhaps more that they might’ve otherwise.
I wonder if anyone here intends to do any selling soon because of taxes.
I don’t. The chart above is a bit confusing to me. As per TLS, the deadline is just around Christmas time and a person cannot buy the same stock back for at least 30 days. This gives an advantage to the early sellers as they can pick up stocks they sold in November in the first week of January 2015. If the late seller buys in January they forfeit their tax deduction.
I guess if gold rises strongly, there will be no tax loss selling. If gold stays flat or down, people will give up on the losers. I am waiting just in case. I have enough holding already. Don’t have to be 100%
Thanks Dan. The chart above just shows that the miners finished higher in the Decembers after the last two major lows (whether measured in gold or dollars). So I concluded that tax-loss sales were no match for the buyers at those lows.
For for the companies listed in both market, selling usually happen for more than half a month. I think the deadline is before Christmas for Canada and after Christmas for US.
Hi, where is Chartster?
A week behind on his timing again.
3 weeks TY
This is correct! A man of honor.. I’ll give you that chartster.
I have a question for all of you. Why would you consider selling gold even if it is tax loss selling time.
Am I missing something?
Let me throw this back at you al! Why not sell gold if it’s been a world of hurt for the past three years? You do realize most miners are back at levels from pre-historic times right?
Glen, gold has done terribly versus the dollar since it peaked in September 2011, but is went up 160% since its September 2011 close when priced in the senior gold miners (HUI). Now is not the time to sell gold for dollars or oil, but it is a good time to sell gold for miners or silver.
Ultimately, especially long term (3-5 years+), gold measures the dollar, the dollar does not measure gold. Take it from Rick Rule, gold should be looked at as savings. The shills and buffoons who claim that it does not protect purchasing power should be ignored.
Matt,
Im not going to get into the numbers and ratios etc vs gold. All I know is that the time to sell should have been 2011 top. I agree that now is not the time to sell but buy..Well scale in would be better.
I would never sell physical gold/silver for tax purposes. I was referring to the miners.
Hey guys…got a STINK BID OUT for ASANKO gold at 1.41
Marc; now that’s an interesting looking chart. I’ll have to check out the fundamentals on that stock. Doc.
Richard, what in that chart makes it interesting to you?
” Tops And Bottoms” !
I guess you’re looking for a double bottom. I wouldn’t rule it out…
Even though I think they’re going higher, I trimmed some GDXJ calls just before the close and picked up something that doesn’t expire soon.
One of my rules is; “If it expires, don’t buy it.”
That is my humble advice for the more simple investors such as myself.
100%. Only bet the price not the time.
I paid $16k for that advice… haha (;-)
Not expensive considering the usefulness. I did not pay anything for this but I paid for other things like never get involved in a private deal unless you have control. I paid 50k for it.
I is simply common sense Lawrence. And, too many people do not have that common sense!
People simply need to be honest with themselves about their knowledge, abilities and risk tolerance. Whether you’re investing for 3 days or 3 years, you’ve got to know what you’re doing or someone else is going to end up with your money.
I have some warrants that are up 400% from my lowest purchase price just 13 trading days ago. They don’t expire until next July so I am in no hurry to get rid of them.
Yep, totally agreed
There seems to be a stealth rise in silver going on. Is something happening with December silver contract?
I know from visiting two coin shops today…………stockpiles do not exist……
I know from visiting one of the coin shops last week…….a buyer came in from out of town and said he would purchase all the stock the dealer had………from “STREET TALK”, my new publication………………………….
OR TREAT FROM THE STREET…………
I just googled Street Talk. Interesting
sorry…………I did not know there was a publication “street talk”…..I was not trying to draw attention away from this site…………………..ootb……….
We have been just in time supply for years. When you place an order, the shop will make an entry with the whole seller. This system is extremely prone to a squeeze. That is why some dealers have to cancel orders recently. Theoretically it is a contract and they can be sued. But whole seller of eagles don’t have supply from the mint so they refuse to take the order. I confirmed this workflow with scotia bank.
It is a disaster waiting to happen.
We can run from Normal market to empty shelf In days. If shop sold the display items and wait for new stock and the stock does not come, then we may not be able to buy unless you pay a high premium in eBay or somewhere.
if you do not have…..you can not sell….spot………….
another newsletter….Great! Hope you won’t become the lastest road kill in the tough gold advisory business. We could use a good newsletter. Good luck guys!
Mr. King,
I believe I know you. If I am correct, I have a lot of respect for you.
Al decides to pick up some gold.
I think he wants to be on the sidelines but also doesn’t want to miss it.
The question is when will Cory put his toe in the water…
Come on in the waters fine
Now let’s get down to business.
First off doc you’ve been calling for patience almost forever.
PATIENCE IS NOT AN INVESTMENT STRATEGY.
You also have been saying long term gold is fine. I’m not here to agree or disagree.
HOWEVER YOU OFFER NO PROOF OR EXPLAINATION FOR YOUR POSITION.
YOU ALSO DONT DEFINE LONG TERM.
do you really think you one day you will flip a switch and long term will be here.
James, a few comments. First of all, the patience call has been rather correct for 3 years and counting—–I would say. Secondly; personally, I’ve been purchasing selected PM stocks since this spring since for some the bottom is in. For some others, they appear to be still at risk technically. I don’t believe you’ll be able to “flip” a switch and “long term” will be here. We’re in a massive bottoming process right now and that’s why it’ll be long term—-unlike the 70’s. It’s going to be long term for all that printed money and debt to play out and that’s why there will not be a short term fix. It was quite obvious back in 2011 that gold would have to top. Volume was telling it and the huge separation from the 200 month MA was telling it. The 200 month MA is approaching 800 and that’s just one of many technicals that tell me we’re going to have to be “patient”. Gold price will not just take off from here and leave a 200 month MA that far from the current gold price in the dust. Just one of those pesky little technical nuances.
Doc,
You have been buying here and there and nibbling for a long time. How much cash do you have? You must be extremely loaded with a open check book:).
Do you ever sell? I have not heard of you selling? If you don’t and we go back down you will be in the hole as much as that open check book.
Just checking.
the longest bull market in gold in history?
Many people think it already ended in 2011.
People are debating cyclical or secular.
This is nonsense.
You have no facts
Cyclical bear within a secular bull is a fact for now. There is NO debate.
Gold on the daily chart is getting positive on MACD. Is the BIG confirmation bull market.
Don’t try to play the markets, you will get played
APPLE market cap………..$700 BILLION………and gold is only $1200
and the US DOLLAR IS worth 3cents
Three cents in a pig’s eye!
FRANCE………..RIght Wing Party…LE PEN…..wants gold to be repatriated. zerohedge.
WTH is going on after hours?… from 1200 to 1222 now.
I see up $0.80 as of this posting.
The month is nearing the clise, and I believe that two very important derivatives are ser to close in Dec. One is called a ‘volatility smile’ and one is a volatility skew’ In terms of Elliot Wave, the downdraft, which was the shoving match between competing derivatives silos created or completed a ‘4’ down wave in a Wave One extension.
Having trouble posting using iPhone.
What is going on with gold? It rises $90 in a few minutes? Is it a system bug?
$1290, WT*.
$1302? See Gold seek and this site
Yeah..I saw the same thing.. only quotes from silverseek and bullionvault shows $1300… no where else yet.. or it’s delayed I dont know… could be just a glitch in system.
Just wait, nothing we can do anyway.
I bet it’s a system error… not all reliable gold price display show the same thing… move on then…
Normal pricing at Kitco;
Yeh and it is not correct. $1302 that is.
I believe it is a malfunction regarding the chart as I am showing it up about 200 bucks! But, then the accompanying number is $1200 or so and not the abnormal number depicted on the graphic.
Big Al… that glitch from goldseek chart got me stunned for a while until I noticed nothing was going on with Silver or miners after hours at all… :).. so I knew I was pranked!
1341……………..TOO THE MOON…………………………
SHORTS……………..COVER YEE ARSE……………………
WHERE IS BO……..PEEP………………………
MIGHT BE WHAT SINCLAIR WAS CALLING THE $100 UP DAY
UP…………………..GOLD UP……….$141
Other sites are still $1200. It could be a bug. I remember Kitco printed $7 for silver when it droped to $8.7 at Oct 23, 2008. It almost caused me a heart attack.
hey you are no fun………………we have to get some fun while we can……..lol
I THINK THE KITCO NUMBER IS CLOSING NUMBER?
I bet it’s a system glitch…
True, kitco seems always late for globex quote. I don’t care but I will be excited if this is true.
France…………..gold call………………remember in 71…NIXON shut the window, FRANCE just opened the window……………..
gold up $219……………………………AL is messing with the key board…….
The Owl has no control over that chart. The Owl, by the way, is not on his way to meet some guys at the bar!
You know the old story: “when the cat’s away!”
Guys.. I know why…. actually.. Big Al turns out to be big enough to weigh on gold price when he purchased earlier.. he must be buying A LOT!…. Big Al, you should stick with your 3 day notice on precious metal.. :D…
good one……………..AL can no longer be called ….ALSLEEP AT THE SWITCH
LOL…
genesys,
Al was more bear the last week then i have ever seen. He woke up on the right side of the bed today. Maybe he is listening to glen,gary etc.. Who knows..
lol… good one glenfidish..
there you go.. correction now… 1201.. LOL… this makes my day.
A good wake up call though. This can happen someday
this is just a PRACTICE RUN……………..this is how it will be…..
the shorts will be wiped out in seconds……………
think about what will happen if the error like this happens but to the downside! gold at $1000?… boy… Some folks on Zerohedge just said the spent $12xxx to buy from Apmex to take advantage of the discrepancy…. but I think they may regret now… what a world…
Up or down from here?
I bet tomarrow………….gold will be up bigger than some think……….going into a long week end………………….jmho.
James, I agree doc is bringing nothing to do table, he repeat the same line september is going to be a big factor in determined the price of gold then it oct then it nov then it dec
I beg to disagree. His calls have been great!
+1
I meant I disagree too
Catman this is a rare time I will say the same. Im somewhat confused as to why doc is not giving a true direction. For quite awhile he seems doubtful,confused,unsure and second guessing himself. It’s the honest truth. I much rather you say up or down and nothing in between. I don’t care for the safe approach as you don’t make money that way. That is my own view. Much earlier when i came here doc was assertive, confident and giving straight out predictions. Something has changed. Gary has been bang on and put it all out there. Im not preaching gary as he is not perfect and neither am i. I just much rather an honest and straight opinion of direction today and tomorrow. That’s how i do it and my track record is out there for all of you.
Catman,
Doc is solid. Very few (if any) called the gold market the way he did at the end of last year and the beginning of this one. I think that maybe…. the current market has been clouding his technicals. However, rest assured,…he’s the real deal.
Doc fan,
I agree which is why I’m baffled at his current long stretch of uncertainty. Meaning his tone/voice is one of not sure. I think he needs a vacation. Doc is the real deal there is no doubt. I have plenty of respect for him.
Only 1 WAY to NOW ! https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bVjDACqumgA
THE ABOVE “FAT FINGER”……is explained at zerohedge………….seems there might be more to the story………….
First, we had the Germans wanting a % of their gold back and then the Dutch actually have received a large amount of tonnage back. You also have the Swiss gold initiative in the wings. The leader of France, Le Pen has now informed their central bank to quit selling gold and that they’re to repatriate their gold from overseas. The worm is finally turning globally. Backwardation is very deep currently. One of the next shoes we should be watching to drop is for the COT’s report to see a turn in the commercial’s position. You can just sense a change in sentiment coming. There will be some point where the shorts of paper money are going to become very nervous to continue their positions in large amounts.
Doc –
the Swiss vote – what it will most likely be and it’s impact on the gold/miners next week is something I’d love to hear you, Gary, and Rick all comment on.
The Elliott Wavers have been calling for this up move (Gary and Rick nailed the move too), but they are also expecting another down. I don’t put a lot of stock in the method, but they (Elliott Wavers) have been calling the recent moves pretty well. I think Gary’s argument is strong, but your non-confirmation and the Elliott Wavers have me concerned about next week.
Doc Fan; I will be surprised if it carries. The forces against will use fear and fear usually wins since most folks knuckle under to it instead of using rational thought processes. Frankly, if it wins, I believe it’ll move gold prices higher but only for a short time. If it loses, I believe it’ll move prices down but not significantly and then the usual market forces (manipulated or not) will take over. Just as fear is a great motivator, so are negative political ads—-people believe both without doing due diligence.
Thanks Doc! Sounds like you feel the market will not putting much weight on the Swiss vote. I’m guessing you are right about the outcome, too.
Hi Doc… good point.. I was thinking the same way that those anti-euro politicians are getting popular… Le Pen was one, Farage was another from UKIP…Just need one of them to hit the jackpot.. and Gold’s sentiment could reverse…
Doc Fan,
Not sure who your speaking to but rick didn’t nail anything imo. Only gary, me, matt at times with his bullish trading and well james is always bullish.
I don’t study elliot or any other method. I simply look at a chart/direction and trend and throw in some fundamentals and news for short trading and thats it. No secret recipe and I have been bang on in here.
So with that being said. I will no longer be giving out advice or direction of markets since I don’t receive any email or appreciation. It is therefore that I will be moving to a paid site that all my followers which i currently don’t have can join me. I want to thank you all for your non appreciation or thanks in the advice and direction I have given you all. I hope you gladly prospered but it stops here..
Hi Glen,
Was hoping that I might see a reply from you as well. You are one of the posters I always enjoy reading. Hoping this things ‘has legs’ as you have said. Respect.
As far as Rick is concerned, I give him credit for his call at 1137. Rick doesn’t normally seem to call for turns the way Gary or Doc do, but he did there.
Doc fan,
Thx for the kind words. I will try my hardest to always post before hand what I do. As you currently know I said I might get out by Wednesday the latest. I may just stay in to Friday. Keep you posted.
Doc Fan,
absolutely rick nailed that hidden pivot call.. I tried to shake him for more hidden pivots but the sucker wont release even one. I think im gonna get matt,j the long and few others to help me turn him upside down to release more calls for us at this forum. 🙂
THE LONG……..will be with you……………..
Remember….we can get BIG AL…….to cover all the cost…………in case we have to pay RICK…………………………..lol
lol
lol,,
Just thought id take a page out of trader dan’s book..Im just having fun..
Phew; Glen, you had me worried for a minute. I thought you had gone off the deep end. By the way; welcome back. Doc.
Doc read my previous message. These are certainly hard times to make bold calls and I just wanted to say I value your opinions but I noticed lately your a bit hesitant. You are truly talented in what you do and keep doing it assertively. Don’t be scared to make a mistake or bad call I have done that many times. Cheers always appreciate your thoughts.
I gladly take donations! Since all gurus and all these people are now on the bang wagon of newsletters lol..
What do you mean, you don’t influence the gold market, Al Korelin?
Glen; way up at the top, you asked if I’m on board with this move. Here’s my thoughts. First of all; from my point of view, Gary’s intermediate cycle has begun. One must remember that intermediate cycles take on all kind of appearances. You can have left translation and right translation and those that seem to just finish almost at a price they started. I’m finally seeing something that I finally have been waiting for and that’s lateral movement of the momentum indicators on the weekly charts for gold. I’ve been onboard since this spring with certain stocks that I continue to add to. I’ve got a couple of others that I’m watching very carefully to add to as they pull back into a trading range. There are so many positive looking charts to me and yet some negative ones. The first week in December will tell me whether I’m going to be taking significant positions in PM stocks I currently don’t own in addition to adding even more strongly to the ones currently owned. Why the first week in December—–because that week will tell me whether the daily cycle in gold will just keep going or will roll over to break the uptrend line. In fact today, I once again bought shared in a company whose chart shows upward momentum. I would rather the gold price start to move down into a trading range for December and some semblance of a double bottom. I would be even more aggressive then. As I’ve said, I’ve been buying selected stocks since the spring. I just don’t go all in. I pick my spots technically. I love pullbacks and technicals that tell me momentum will continue up.
Doc,
Thanks for sharing your trading patterns. I value very much what you have to say. Your a stand up guy, one can just see. Your method is valid and smart strategy. I guess im just a little more aggressive with my approach. Different strokes for different folks. I here you and understand you. I may be in today but out tomorrow. You just never know with these markets. Wealth preservation and slow accumulation is all that matters. Thanks for breaking it down.
Le Pen?
Sorry meant in reply to Doc, on leader of France
Marine Le Pen, leader of the Front National who in a hypothetical poll recently out-polled president Hollande—-sent a letter to the governor of the French National Bank demanding that France join the list of countries repatriating their gold.
Doc.
would you thoroughly explain to me or us. Two things are here, the credit spreads and yield curves that analysts using them in the markets to decide whether there is liquidity problems or not. want to know how to relate that? thank you. p.s. read this in bob hoye’s newsletter.p.s. I am really a beginner.
it is option strangle time-buy a next week gld 116 call and a next week gld 115 put-or cheaper at 118 and 113 looking for a 50 buck move one way or another.
this is all a pig in a poke-we don’t control the short term prices and we are not inside enough to get a real heads up.
I disagree Doc,
The move up is now. Forget waiting. I think your premature and your seeing different indicators then mine. These miners will run for another week at least then down. JMO.