What are the chances of a breakout in December?
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get ready for a CARPET RIDE…………..CENTRAL BANKERS will crush this ,if they can..
Savage Tedium….. I love it. The most boring markets ever.
REMEMBER this is a HOLIDAY……….I DO believe, last night there was a SYSTEM CHECK, when Gold went up ,falsely or not, over $219….up to $1420….Zerohedge wrote an interesting article last night, concerning the 10second trading that took place after hours. Usually, if you want to pull something off, when do they do it?,,,,,in darkness, and when people are asleep at the switch………jmho
J….I can’t trade off what evil may lurk in the shadows…I stay focused on the chart and the trend they create….there are endless possibilities of big upswings and down swings created by X but its all noise and opinions.
Not to knock all those who hold gold and will never sell but how many predictions running up to $1900 were completely wrong and how many since 2011 have been completely wrong?….I’ve lost track so I focus on todays price trend and ignore the boogie man as a reason to invest.
jj……….I would agree with you, that you can not trade off evil, ….or can you….evil is good to know about……so, you do not fall in their trap……………just saying………j
I think that was netdania specific… didn’t show anywhere else as far as i know.
The ultimate chartist, Charles Nenner, who totally ignores fundamentals and logical explanations in his predictions, is calling for gold to rise, having recently been forming a bottom.
Nenner just another flake who had a good run for a few calls and the last year has been flip-flopping like a fish out of water…..opinions mean 0 CFS price is EVERYTHING!
Nenner’s a flake?! Give it a rest mini Marty!
100% flake…he is NOT a chartist but a cycle guru….go ahead google his calls the guy gives Dennis Gartmen a run for biggest flip-flopper ever
Matty I could careless who the correct call comes from or how they base it….just get the big picture correct and that’s what makes a trend….sorry Marty has been bang on with his US equity, currency, deflation and political, gold calls.
Your blind faith in Marty is simply dangerous.
No actually is very, very profitable, thanks!
If GDM can break out of its huge falling wedge in January or February, the miners will be on their way to their 2011 highs.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$GDM&p=M&yr=20&mn=11&dy=30&id=p33075750255&a=377853726
Your charts look like Gary Savages….anyone can draw a trend line going to da moon….massive resistance at the trend line created off the Aug 2013 high and the July 2014 high coming in around 700 take that out and then look at the trend line off the 2011 high…so many resistance zones in the way before howling at…. da moon!
Did you happen to notice the word “IF” at the beginning of my comment?
Yes I did its the most used word by the gold bulls since Sept 2011…IF….second most used after failed bullish calls is….Manipulation….always an excuse!
I’ve never used manipulation as an excuse and I’ve never thought that they don’t manipulate prices in BOTH directions. The 2011 move could be a good example. What better way to tame the beast for several years AND destroy sentiment than to take the market too high too fast and exhaust the resources of the who wanted to buy all at once?
Anyone who can’t see that there is manipulation is clueless.
NO manipulation in gold at all, unless you really think $Yen has been manipulated as well…toss up one of your fancy charts Matty of a weekly $Yen since summer 2007..Yen up gold up, oh look who topped out at the same time and then what goes up goes down in perfect lock step…but that’s because Yen is manipulated like gold…okay sure!
Man… the banks have been fined and have paid the fines. They are guilty of manipulation… period. The gold market fines will start to pile up now.
You don’t think all the counterfeiting should be considered manipulation all by itself?!
AHHHHH, hahahahahahaha!!!!!!!
The whole world is full of damn Marxists —or worse!
I guess this guy is a not worth following either Matty just because you don’t understand gold is traded as a currency doesn’t mean others aren’t aware. Ties in nicely with Rick A’s $Yen call
Really? I don’t understand that gold is traded as a currency? Thanks for letting me know what I know!
I still think its funny, and very telling, that you had no problem with Marty’s “proof” that gold is not an inflation hedge. You really think we should look at gold’s performance versus the Dow first when deciding if it has maintained its purchasing power? You don’t suppose that it would be more appropriate to look at things that everyone uses every day? In addition, you don’t detect a shill when he chose the frickin 1980 bubble top in gold for the starting point in his comparison? WOW.
Then there’s this gem from Marty:
“This is NOT going down the road of HYPERINFLATION – this is DEFLATION. The destruction of capital not the expansion of it. I have warned this is the COLLAPSE of Socialism. That means government walks away from its promises – it will not print money into oblivion.”
He proved that he doesn’t understand hyperinflation if he thinks it is good for capital formation and results in the expansion of it.
Currency is not wealth; it is a claim on wealth. Currency is also not capital; it is a measure of capital.
Matty, when Japan was in trouble when China was in trouble and Argentina did they call you for advice?…I know you have the biggest ego I’ve ever witnessed at any forum but you do realize they didn’t call you for your opinion, they called Armstrong.
I’m sorry that you gave up on Marty again probably due to your own ego….but I don’t trade off ego I trade off trends and following his calls regarding global capital flows has US equity positions long since 10,500 Dow and every pop in gold has been another short position trade as lower lows AND lower highs continue….sorry I like making money following his correct OVERALL TREND forecasts…the rest is noise.
Edwards YEN article, you didn’t understand it?…I can walk you thru it if need be…let me know.
I have highlighted problems with Marty’s OPINIONS not his computer. Remember, opinions are worthless!
I believe you’re the one with a huge ego. I have not “given up on Marty” but your ego compels you to make reckless assumptions. There are plenty of others that I have also not given up on, despite numerous disagreements. Imagine that.
I beg to differ. I do not believe that all opinions are worthless.
Thank you, you’re differing with JJ, not me. I was sarcastically throwing JJ’s words back at him. Well, they’re Marty’s words; the only kind JJ is interested in.
Matthew,
Here is gold’s performance since 1971 against a standard 60/40 stock/bond portfolio and a bond aggregate. Gold underperformed the stock/bond portfolio and barley beat the bond aggregate.
http://pragcap.com/putting-the-performance-of-gold-in-perspective
The fact is stocks have outperformed gold since 1971 when you include reinvested dividends, something that gold does not have the benefit of.
Just saying…
Like Armstrong, you’re missing the point. Gold should be compared to dollars not stocks. As of the 2011 high, gold had outperformed the dollar by almost 60 fold (!!!) since 1971. Why? Because the dollar is being “managed” right into the ground.
In the real world, gold has still probably outperformed most stock portfolios since there are numerous and substantial losses over a 40 year period. Many companies have gone away –delisted from their index and replaced with new ones. Authors like the one in your article don’t account for such failures and substitutions. I know real people that lost real money when companies like Citi, AIG, Lehman, GM etc. got smoked in ’08. The companies that the indexes replaced them with did not bring their money back.
Gold has no counterparty risk. Someday, more than a few people will find out the hard way why this is important.
JMiller,
Hmm, not even close. Not even in the same ball park in fact.
Since 71 the Dow is up roughly 22X. Gold, even after a bear market is up 34X. If you measured at the peak of $1900 gold was up 54X.
Gary,
Did you include dividends? Of course not. And if you reinvest those dividends, like most people do, it would easily beat gold. Since 1971 the SP500 with dividends reinvested is up a whopping 75X which clearly beats gold. I ran the numbers on a couple of websites. Same results. Below is one example:
Total Return of the SP500 (January 1971 to October 2014) according to
http://dqydj.net/sp-500-return-calculator/
•Total S&P 500 Price Return: 2001.380%
•Annualized S&P 500 Price Return: 7.208%
•S&P 500 Return (Dividends Reinvested): 7574.468%
•Annualized S&P 500 Return (Dividends Reinvested):10.430%
Running the numbers using Money Chimps Compound Annual Growth Rate Calculator it says that $1 invested in the SP500 from January 1971 to December 2013 would have grown to $75.58 just like the other calculator I used.
As you can see dividends do make a difference especially when reinvested, which is something you can not do with gold.
Wow and I thought I was the only one who noticed gold was in a bear market, Gary your on it!
I guess no one gets Matthew’s point. Gold should be compared to currency not stock. Stock has risk and most companies have gone away since 1971. And gold like dollar do not go away. You pay for safety so you should expect lower return on gold and cash compared with stocks. However, if you count the monet you lost due to companies go bust, the retrun might not be higher then gold. Even if it is higher, you are still compare apples and oranges. You cannot buy stock index. Index fund and ETF has decay and management fees which will eat into your profit in longer term. The fund can go bust as well. However, if you put gold into your safe, there is no cost. Regardless of what, you cannot compare the two asset classes. Saving in gold like saving in cash under your pillow. It offers the safety of not losing in the purchasing power in gold (or nominal value in case of cash).
Matty must be an unemployed history teacher living in his mom’s basement. Who cares about all this crap, its all about how much did you make this year not 50 years ago…how many goldbugs who stood in line in 1980 waited 25 years to break even…idiots!!
Lawrence,
Gold is not safe! Nothing is safe! Everything has risks of one kind or another. My point is to simply refute this idea that gold has almost doubled the return for stocks since 1971 which it has not. That is all I am trying to point out. People who say this are not including dividends. Yes Gold does outperform stocks even with dividends but not the huge amount as stated by some. And yes if the dividends are reinvested then stocks clearly outperform gold.
And Lawrence you bring up things like management fees. I guess buying gold never cost anything? You can buy it at spot every time? No premium to pay? No shipping charges?
Gold is safe because you do not give your gold to others. If you give your gold to other people to invest, you are no longer own gold, but some promise which may or may not materialize. It is called investing. There is a fee when you transact in gold which is same with owning foreign currency. Gold is common money. But this fee does not accumulate over time unlike management fees. As long as you keep your gold, it is safe unless you let it go. However I am not saying gold is better than all investments. If you have a good investment which gives you good return, by all means go for it.
As long as we have fiat currencies, ..everything… Is manipulated!
You’re absolutely right!
Common Matty show us that Weekly $Yen chart with arrows going up from 82 Yen/ $650 gold summer of 2007 straight up to $1923 gold/ 132 Yen and then you can draw in another arrow going all the way down to today…that’s called a trend….the trend is your friend…show us your chart skills don’t be shy.
$XJY is the ticker symbol Matty at stockcharts, use a blue arrow on the up trend line from 2007-2011 and a red down trend line from Sept 2011 to today….I like blue and green, thanks!….oh remember use a Weekly timeframe as it shows the perfect trend since 2007 and where the trend just might end, you’ll see with your Fork lines
Here’s something interesting for you. Gold bottomed in August, 1999 at a monthly close of $257 while the yen closed that month at 91. A full 18 months later, gold was UP 16% while the yen was DOWN 19% —that’s a hell of a spread. If gold is bottoming here, the yen just might be substantially lower in 18 months while gold is substantially higher.
As long as you have fun, right?
Such a typical gold bug reply that just keeps getting spun over and over again, no matter what those that successfully trade gold suggest its always shunned away and another worthless example is applied….by successful trading I mean those who can trade the short and long side of a bear market trend.
Real smart answer Mr. Void-of-ego. You gave nothing but your OPINION and we know what those are, don’t we? WORTHLESS! Weeeeeee! I think I get it now. This IS fun!
Not an opinion Matty I’m outlining the action of the chart the goldbugs just continue not to see, my gains their losses
So where is that $YEN chart?????
Of course it’s an opinion, what’s wrong with you?
As for the yen, what’s your point, that we’re going to see $650 gold just because that’s where it was the last time the yen traded at this level??? The yen also traded at the current level in 1993, are we going to $350 gold? Maybe the top-of-the-line Lexus will be $45,000 again, too! Yippy!
I think it’s strange that you have nothing worthwhile to say about the action at the 1999 low. Ok, it’s not that strange.
$XJY is the ticker symbol Matty at stockcharts, use a blue arrow on the up trend line from 2007-2011 and a red down trend line from Sept 2011 to today….I like blue and red, thanks!….oh remember use a Weekly timeframe as it shows the perfect trend since 2007 and where the trend just might end, you’ll see with your Fork lines
I guess I have to learn to quit assuming that everyone has an IQ above 100.
JJ, just curious. If Marty goes to prison or hit by a bus, are you going to stop investing?
Thanks for the stupid question Lawrence….Marty has correctly highlighted the global trend that is play not based on his opinion but data….I use charts to base my investment positions both long and short. If Marty was to retire today he has already showed the correct global trend now its just up to the charts its like he handed those who invest void of ego the correct map to follow and the trend lines are the roads heading in the right direction. So no I’ll still make money following the correct road map, thanks!
Thank you for your “polite” answer to my stupid question. I hope he is safe before he can tell his readers when gold will start to go to 5000
I labeled it a stupid question because I gave you the benefit of the doubt Lawrence, you actually think anyone who follows Marty would stop investing if Armstrong retired, your kidding right???????
He already has outlined when the bottom will be in
I just ask you a question. Remember no question is stupid. I am not sure how long you will invest but I may have to go for another 30 years. So I will listen to other guys but try not to blindly follow. Also you know everyone can be bought if the the price is right.
Thanks anyway.
BTW, as I recall, Martin has postponed the date of reversal a couple of times. Who knows he is not going to do it again.
Lawrence just curious, how old are you?
Blindly investing, well I’d say the goldbugs should write a book on that subject following so many so called gold gurus who have been 110% wrong since 2011….any moron can look good during a bull market it anything, its the real successful traders that understand a bear market and make money trading it from the short and long side. Follow blindly, lol…yes that is what the goldbugs have done for 3+ years….Gold has fallen 40% how much you made Lawrence shorting gold? The HUI has fallen 80% how much you made trading its bear market shorting? Silver, the negative % losses are even worse.
So lets say Armstrong has been bought, what bought to be correct!….how much you made these past 3 years long the Dow as its risen 70% while all the goldbugs suggest its topping, its topping…WTF
I am not interested in gold bugs opinion. Any religion in investment market is harmful.
I am around 50.
$XJY is the ticker symbol Matty at stockcharts, use a blue arrow on the up trend line from 2007-2011 and a red down trend line from Sept 2011 to today….I like blue and red, thanks!….oh remember use a Weekly timeframe as it shows the perfect trend since 2007 and where the trend just might end, you’ll see with your Fork lines
jj, the gold bugs don’t like marty because he is not a perma bull. simple.
you know Karl its odd but Marty has brought into plain site the corrupt actions of global governments, the cycle of war, the trend in global capital flows, strength in the $ and yet the gold bugs hate him for being RIGHT about gold these past 3 years….they even suggest he has never made any money from the long side of gold when its does have decent runs within the bear market, I know that’s not the fact because I bought his metals report these past and he’s has called the turns. Have a stroll down the headlines over at KWNews these are what the gold bugs have bet on yet those headlines have been 100% incorrect costing many investors huge losses and yet they continue to follow…..complete INSANITY.
The to the moon gold bugs will be right once we get past this final wash.
I wish it would get on with it already!
To the moon guys can be right only when they are wiped out. You can not make a bet on your life with all you have at once.
Why is it so many think once a bottom is in… its to da moon!…..so many sectors over the years have taken years to regain their old highs, 5000 Nasdaq ring any bells…14+ years later
The Nasdaq bubble marked the end of a secular bull market. The 2011 high for gold only marked the end of a cyclical bull, but who cares about learning why that matters, right?
Have you ever heard of the Dunning-Kruger effect? I would bet not.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dunning%E2%80%93Kruger_effect
Simple answer. Gold is under valued and the Nasdaq is over valued.
Saw CNBC putting a lot of time in on the Swiss vote. Headlines about it passing causing a gold rush. Smells bad.
Matthew,
I Iappreciate your tenacity with these guys – I dont have the brains or the energy to do it!
Well said Marc, at least you have no ego and realize it, some never will.
Marty has been spot on with the turns in gold. His next turning point is the begining of january. I am waiting for his update to the metals report to be sent out.
I agree with that assessment and my technicals at this time place the odds of that scenario as the most likely. Doc.
Hi Rick,
Your Yen chart here:
http://www.rickackerman.com/2014/11/jym13-june-yen-last0-8481/
the chart filname is: Perversely-good-news-for-BOJ.jpg
Nopw that is extremely ominous for gold. The Yen move you show started September 2012 as gold topped at $1800. A Similar ABCD move on gold would take it to around $800, withthe initial Ab move being either -$500 or -$620 and the CD move presumably being the same.
The link to your full sized chart is here:
http://www.rickackerman.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/11/Perversely-good-news-for-BOJ.jpg
For gold AB wuld be from $1800 to $1180 (or 1320 is being very kind but no – $1180, C would be $1430. D would therefore be $810.
Now gold has had a little pop up in Jpanese yen terms s o it looks tempting to say it is about to decouple from its lock step plunge with the Yen. However, it has had little pops up like this before.
http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/gallery.html?$gold:$XJY
Look at the point and figure chart on this one.
The only consolation in this is that the yen posted a lower low last December and gold didn’t and the yen has taken a dive recently whereas gold took a mini-dive then recovered to above $1180, the June 213 and Dec 2013 lows. So maybe gold is turning up compared to the yen but it is very tenuous.
$800 Silverbug? I really don’t think so. The yen and gold went their separate ways at the major low in 1999 with gold going up 16% in the following 18 months while the yen dropped 19%.
oh iKnow … KER theme song – “the banner over me is love”.
Song of Solomon 2:4
“He has brought me to his banquet hall, And his banner over me is love.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=K2mfVe3X06g
~~~//~~~
hahaha – happy thanksgiving everyone below the 49th.
Do any of you all get tired of being wrong about gold? Look at oil. Gold and silver will follow. Commodities are being blitzed and you all are calling bottoms and higher lows, lawl. Just send your trading funds to me via ACH bc Im going to take it anyways being short.
Gold is up about 40% since June when priced in oil and will outperform it for years, in my opinion. However, $GOLD:$WTIC is overbought right now, so oil could do some catching up soon.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$GOLD:$WTIC&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&id=p57485347686
Gold is also up 12% since the June low when priced in commodities ($CRB).
Gold priced in $CRB is up a whopping 240% since 2005.
Gold is obviously not a commodity financially speaking.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$GOLD:$CRB&p=M&yr=10&mn=6&dy=0&id=p17268084860&a=378212245
Rick looking at your Euro$, $Yen and US$ call from your web-site this week a bullish move in gold will be determined by the Swiss vote a Yes should put your $30 upside in play….a No vote could pull the rug out from the bulls….again your currency calls if correct will have much lower oil and gold prices…108 Euro$ suggest sub $1000 Gold