Interesting news came out yesterday afternoon regarding the gold market. India is dropping all the imposed restrictions on the import of gold with immediate effect, RBI statement http://rbi.org.in/scripts/NotificationUser.aspx?Id=9370&Mode=0

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/efa9d042-7714-11e4-944f-00144feabdc0.html

It looks like the OPEC meeting has ushered in the final blood bath phase for oil and the entire commodity complex as it moves down into a final 3 year cycle low. Usually a bloodbath phase will last 5-10 days.

FWIW gold has bottomed a little ahead of the rest of the commodity complex at the last three major 3 year cycle lows. So I expect gold to bottom before oil does and if the Swiss vote passes we will probably hold the 1130 low and go back up.

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$CRB&p=D&yr=10&mn=3&dy=0&id=p68864142117&a=378356216&listNum=1

Recently Doc….you advised your charts suggested that RIG would go to 20. I see that we are about there. What are your updated thoughts since those comments.

At this point im 99.9% sure we head below 1130.

Wti 35/40 100% sure now.

Gary i’d say stop giving people hope based on a vote. The vote has nothing absolutely nothing to do with this drop in gold that has been happening for quite sometime. We have deflation. When those deflation forces come to rest or get near the bottoming process then gold will have it’s day. If people are crossing there fingers over weekend that the vote will be the saviour then there in for a world of hurt. We are headed into that 5-10 days you say and that I agree with.

The strategy is to buy at 1/4th–2/4th book value in good companies with plenty of cash on hand to weather any storm. Companies aggressively cutting cost. The evaluations im seeing are making me drool and starting to lick my chops. This is truly becoming a christmas gift for some of these miners. A dream come true of over 3+years to get here.

The Swiss vote and OPEC really have little to do with the pricing on gold and oil.
They are hiding the ball for what is really going on. Most are following the shiny ball. And the shiny ball is OPEC and the Swiss vote. For every financial event that occurs, there is what I call ” excuse news ” for the masses. That being said, there is a much larger play going on here.

If the world were going back to asset backed currencies ( and we are ) what would be part of the assets that back a countries currency? We know gold and other metals would be in that. What about oil? And being that oil would be one of those assets, would it not be prudent to take the manipulation ( derivatives ) off the price, to make it ” a fair ” value?

Just something to think about

Don’t think I’m nuts saying OPEC is not controlling the prices.
They do answer to a higher authority. Guaranteed!

There are always unintended consequences when you undertake something like the re-pricing of oil to control market share, there is no turning back in the short term and the impact might be felt most by those who deem to be in the driver’s seat. As the middle east goes so does the rest of the world.

Seg 5, Ive read that Russia can handle a much lower oil price than the Americans.
The Saudis havnt been happy with the states for talking to Iran.

The Russians and China are going to build high speed railways from Bejing to Moscow, lots more than that of course but the point is that’s where the growth is, the states is having a hard time fixing potholes.

Doc is right, the U.S. will survive, as a poor untrusted nation, the question is will/how will a revelution take place.

The americn power dropping has got to be a good thing, the murders, genocides, rapes, religious and otherwise are too numerous to mention. Internet and space exploration etc are great but the cost?
People just plain don’t like their children being killed, Erdogan leader of Turkey came out and made this point clearly the other day, and it looks more and more that’s how the world views the states now.

Entirely justified if you ask me, now they turn on themselves.

Be nice if enough people began to listen to guys like Ron Paul, but I think Paul Craig Roberts is right, Clinton will be elected and the “war,rape” mentality will continue.

Lets hope the “switch” that turns off electronics the Russians are rumoured to have is true, something like that could prevent ww 3.

nothing being mentioned about Japan. Its running on fumes. What happens when the reality that Japan is finished sinks in?

another thought on Japan–DERIVATIVES
JAPAN HOLDING $1.2 TRILLION US DEBT
not sure how much a trade balance Japan is holding.

How the heck does this all get settled out? Do we have to print a couple of trillion to buy back our debt? Just who has the capacity to buy a couple of trillion in a hurry?

US interference in the internal affairs of countries around the world has brought neither peace, nor democracy, said Russia’s Deputy Defense Minister. America’s double standard experiments in supporting terrorists are provoking further destabilization.

“Think of it, over the last decades the US initiated two-thirds of all military conflicts (worldwide). Call to memory, how it all turned out in Yugoslavia, Iraq, Afghanistan and Syria,” Russia’s deputy Defense Minister Anatoly Antonov said, addressing colleagues from the Southern and Southeast Asian states in Colombo, Sri Lanka.

“Using social and economic difficulties, various ethnical and religious conflicts and under the pretext of spreading democracy, Western political spin masters add populist slogans to the fire of public discontent, provoking mass disturbances,” he said. “As a result, a lawful government is taken down, chaos, abuse of power and lawlessness spread, people die, and in some cases a regime favorable to the West is brought into power. Of course, terrorists feel comfortable in such conditions.”

Antonov called on the US authorities to “give up double standards in the implementation of counter-terrorist measures” and stop dividing terrorists into good and bad ones.

“No matter what slogans terrorists use – they should remain outlaws,” Antonov said, speaking about the current disastrous situations in Syria and Iraq as a vivid example of consequences of such “ineffectual experiments.”

An image grab taken from a propaganda video released on March 17, 2014 by the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL)’s al-Furqan Media allegedly shows ISIL fighters at an undisclosed location in the Anbar province.(AFP Photo/HO/Al-Furquan Media)
An image grab taken from a propaganda video released on March 17, 2014 by the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL)’s al-Furqan Media allegedly shows ISIL fighters at an undisclosed location in the Anbar province.(AFP Photo/HO/Al-Furquan Media)

Russian top brass stressed their concern over the creation of terrorist organizations for serving the specific needs of certain states. A classic example is the Taliban movement in Afghanistan, created to combat the Soviet Union, but which ended as the Al-Qaeda terrorist network that bit back hard at the US.

Russia is always ready to cooperate in fighting terrorism and to coordinate activities to defeat the new challenge presented by the Islamic State, Russia’s Deputy Defense Minister said, pointing out that Moscow has never stopped supplying legitimate governments with weapons and military hardware to ease their fight against religious extremism.

A Dostum mujahideen fighter runs as he fires his AK-47 machine gun against advancing Hezb-i-Islami rebels at the Bala Hishar palace in Kabul on April 26, 1992. (Reuters/Richard Ellis)
A Dostum mujahideen fighter runs as he fires his AK-47 machine gun against advancing Hezb-i-Islami rebels at the Bala Hishar palace in Kabul on April 26, 1992. (Reuters/Richard Ellis)

Initially created to eliminate President Bashar Assad’s regime in Syria, it became a terror threat for the whole Middle East region, Antonov said.

Another global threat to world security and stability is the so-called global trend in “color revolutions” Antonov said, comparing the ongoing protests in Hong-Kong with the Maidan protests in Ukraine, which ended in chaos, mass murder, economic downturn, split of the country and eventually – a civil war.

The deputy defense minister blamed the US for “pushing Ukraine to the abyss” in an internal conflict, which has already killed thousands through the support of an unconstitutional power takeover.”

U.S. servicemen take part in military exercises outside the town of Yavoriv near Lviv, September 19, 2014. (Reuters/Roman Baluk)
U.S. servicemen take part in military exercises outside the town of Yavoriv near Lviv, September 19, 2014. (Reuters/Roman Baluk)

For those who doubt that “color revolutions” are not typical for the Southeast Asian states, Antonov highlighted the fact that “10 percent of Islamic State militants now fighting in Syria and Iraq come from the Southeast Asia.”

“What will happen in the countries of the region when those highly trained militants with battlefield experience come back to their home countries?” Antonov questioned.

It is a primary task of the national armed forces of Southern and Southeast Asian states to maintain regional security and neutralize the potential threat of color revolutions internally, Antonov stressed, proposing to develop closer ties between national defense forces.

The US foreign is now bringing instability to the Asia-Pacific (A/P) region, developing its global missile defense network under the pretext of a North Korean nuclear threat.

“In reality, American global missile defense is aimed at undermining regional and international security and poses a serious threat to the Asia-Pacific region,” Antonov said.

U.S. troops and Afghan policemen inspect the site of a suicide attack on the outskirts of Jalalabad, November 13, 2014.(Reuters / Parwiz)
U.S. troops and Afghan policemen inspect the site of a suicide attack on the outskirts of Jalalabad, November 13, 2014.(Reuters / Parwiz)

The US is beefing up its military presence in the Asia-Pacific region with nuclear air carriers and strategic bombers “under a vain pretext” in order to master other countries policies, Antonov said, noting that the region’s governments suffered unprecedented pressure recently when Washington forced them to “join illegal anti-Russian (economic) sanctions.”

The military potential being readied by Washington “considerably exceeds the level required to neutralize any existing or potential missile threat,” Antonov said.

Russia’s Deputy Defense Minister recalled President Vladimir Putin saying some time ago that America’s attempts to interfere in other countries’ internal affairs usually end up in a catastrophe.

Addressing a gathering on Lake Seliger in Russia’s Tver regionin in August, President Vladimir Putin said that he had an impression that “whatever Americans touch they always end up with Libya or Iraq

The panic cycle worked- should see a pop in gold going into next week.

Gold – A Revival?

http://armstrongeconomics.com/2014/11/28/gold-a-revival/

OPEC DIDNT DO EXACTLY WHAT THEY TELEGRAPHED THEY WOULDNT DO
NO SURPRISES HERE

Maybe GOLD will sky rocket at monday because of withdrawal of 80:20 scheme in India. GOLD RSI is at oversold territory and have to reverse next week. I´m in position…

http://www.business-standard.com/article/markets/gold-price-reverses-overnight-on-withdrawal-of-80-20-scheme-114112900485_1.html

With the lower oil prices, the auto companies will see lower production costs and higher demand from customers for new vehicles especially larger vehicles. The transport companies and airlines profits are going to spike up sharply. Oil may bottom around 50 or at around a 50% drop from the peak.. I had a 60 target originally but the fall is so steep it will overshoot by a large amount. I think rick had a 56 target a while back when I was thinking 60. The shale producers may have to reduce or shut down some of their production.

Could the huge drop in crude oil be a manifestation of a derivatives meltdown?

Bo’s new forecast of 1500 gold by the end of the year is way off again. Gold will have trouble holding 1200.

If a yes vote happens maybe that provides a selling opportunity for anyone interested.
There are a lot of shares of profitable companies that can come down 25%+ yet.

France and other nations asking for their gold back might help gold up as the idea grows.

The WORD is out…………….Dutch, French, Germans, India, Russia , China, Swiss, ALL WANT GOLD………real simple…………The loss in confidence is at hand, the lights have been turned on.

Re: Segment 6
I am somewhat surprised that everyone missed my meaning when I said the U.S. is done. I was not referring to the decline in global dominance or the potential loss of its status as the holder of the senior reserve currency, I was referring to the systematic elimination of the rights and principles that made the U.S. an economic powerhouse and the place to be for a long time.

The increasingly totalitarian nanny state that the U.S. has become didn’t happen overnight with Obama coming into office, it started quietly more than a century ago and by design. Today, probably 90% of Americans act and think in a way that is un-American by definition but would be very angry at the suggestion. When you have republicans acting like collectivists to cheers, not jeers, you know the sheeple have been thoroughly reprogrammed. Collectivism, by the way, includes socialism, communism, and fascism. The ministers of propaganda would like you to use their definitions to differentiate between the three so that you’ll agree that communism is “left wing,” fascism is “right wing” and socialism is “moderate,” civilized and egalitarian. The reality is that all three are “left” and the farmers win no matter which approach the sheep choose. Each is based on theft/violence and top-down rule, not cooperation, the rule of law and individual rights.
The greater the ignorance and indoctrination, the more radical the truth becomes.

Regarding what’s going on with the DemoNRrat Pary ™ I was not aware because I don’t listen to the lame stream media.

But it’s good to hear any stories about the DemonRats ripping each other apart.

To paraphrase Bill Kilgore, “I love the smell of burnt DemonRat in the mornings.”

Matthew,
I agree 100% with that!
There is less than one tenth of 1% of the American people that can hear the truth, even if you prove it out with 100% fact!
Indoctrination is the biggest problem facing America.

It is refreshing to see not all are brainwashed. Thanks for the post.

SEG 3……RENEWABLE ENERGY…………good luck………………….

SEG 8…………..Matthew hang in there,….. BIG AL, is just upset that he got the short end of the wishbone…………..

Based on today’s content and your newsletter, I thought you might find an alternative view on green energy, valuable for consideration.

Ira Stoll at David Stockman Contra Corner writes:
Crony Capitalists Feeding At The Trough: Another Green Energy Subsidy Scalper Bites The Dust
http://davidstockmanscontracorner.com/crony-capitalists-feeding-at-the-trough-another-green-energy-subsidy-scalper-bites-the-dust/

Highlights include:
after Solyndra, Evergreen, Abound, and Satcon — that the failure of another government-backed alternative energy company is a dog-bites man story. It’d be newsworthy if any of them actually ever succeeded.

Essential reading surely which is germane to everything else.

http://vineyardsaker.blogspot.com.br/2014/11/absolutely-crucial-statement-by-foreign.html

If the intention is to lower oil price to hurt Russia, the effect is minimal since Russia is devaluing its currency to reduce the impact to its domestic producers. If the intention is to stimulate the economy, it will hurt US energy industry a lot. US needs high price to allow its shale play to work. Otherwise it will go back 70% foreign oil dependency. It will end up hurting itself. The only beneficiary is China, which is importing a lot more than usual.

https://goldswitzerland.com/goldswitzerland-publications-interviews/

Gold price monthly chart. A price flag should come up denoting a price low in stock charts.com in the monthly chart:

http://scharts.co/15Kx8TC

A new Fleck one…

http://kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/Broadcast/Entries/2014/11/29_Bill_Fleckenstein.html

Agree with you Al regarding earned income tax credits for people who don’t pay taxes. Now extend that very same logic to the corporations who don’t pay taxes but are receiving earned income tax credits and taxpayer subsidies. Time to end all these giveaways and let the free market work. None of them deserve this largess, and we can’t afford it.

Interesting discussion on one world government. But I see it more as a pecking order of power elites.

Power in the New World Order has no geographical boundaries, but instead zones of economic control–corporate fiefdoms. Currently on the alpha predators of the food chain are the multinationals. Top three appear to be agribusiness (ADM, for example), oil (BP, for example) and the pharmaceuticals. But above all reigns the banksters.

Of course, I completely agree, Bj

Matt and Gary

Matt. I think Gary was right on his first call. He said that we have turned up on intermediate cycle and yearly cycle. We are still now in bull run. Gary also said that watch out for down swing in gold for institutions to get into so that is what just happened on friday in thinly traded session where most people are enjoying turkey and doing black friday shopping and retail sheep won’t buy this dip. Exactly what they planned. This one day even will turn out to be one day event. We will be up in green on monday. Oil is at 10 RSI on 5 day time frame. It’s extremely oversold and due for bounce. This sell off should have been used by those that want to get in to purchase instead most sold off. I bought this dip big. What you noticed in the charts is correct. What are your thoughts on the chart you posted???

Also this guy is nailing it so far and i think his opinion is right in synch with Gary’s original opinion before he flipped to bear camp again. I think Gary bull call will turn out to be right. JMHO
http://thefinancialtap.com/public/has-the-trap-been-set

My view on gold may be boring to some but it’s worth getting a good night’s sleep when you don’t take your eye off the big picture:

– Debt is expanding worldwide at what is beginning to become exponential, or at least entering that phase.
– The trend that the Fed established 100 years ago is still firmly in place and expanding
– America’s debt has doubled since Lehman, and it took the complete history of America to get to Lehman
– All fiat currencies blow up … what has been the exception?
– I’m 55 years old and the US gold stocks have never been audited in my life..and the men who are suppose to be running this country (our representatives) are being told they can’t see it…by who are they being told this?
– the price on gold historically is priced off the level of debt

‘Investing’ is a very, very recent entanglement for the American citizens. The average man through history did not invest. He held his wealth in coin, land, growing food, one on one trading, and his skills to create ‘things’ and create a life for himself and his family.

Trading of one’s freshly created wealth into paper products (IRAs, 401Ks, etc..) before it even passes through your checking account may be the biggest black swan yet!

Gold is not finished nor will it ever be finished.

How closely linked are the price of oil and the price of gold?

Can one go up whilst the other goes down or do they both generally move in the same direction?

Oil went down to the 40s in 2009 and it would not surprise me if it happened again in early 2015.

The Saudis do not lower their oil price and/or cut/raise production randomly. They put a lot of consideration into which position to make and then they choose it. Their recent oil price cut is not something that they will simply turn around and change next week or next month. I think, at a minimum, they will keep their price cut, and their production levels as stated at the OPEC meeting last week, where they are now for the next 3 months at least.

There is some geo-political ‘thing’ going on here. The most obvious answer is that the Saudis are seeing an opportunity to get rid of one of their most hated enemies in their region – Assad of Syria. Putting pressure on oil prices may be, as many have discussed, some plan between the US and the Saudis to hit Russia – who also just happens to be the only country keeping Assad going – as hitting Putin in the pocket economically is obviously the West’s only plan to hit back at him over Ukraine.

If the game is to finish off Assad and/or to squeeze Putin then they – the Saudis and the US – will be keeping the pressure on having a low oil price for many months to come. Maybe even years. They are not going to start this and then, before it is finished, simply change their minds again. It is economic warfare. Yes, it hits US shale producers but the plus side, for the US Government, is that it might stimulate the wider US economy. Which is more important for the US?

Or it could simply be that the global economy is contracting and doing that much feared thing – deflating

Hence why I can’t see how any technicals in charts really matter now as the oil price is being governed by geo-political decisions.

Don’t forget, the last time the Saudis cut the price of oil out of the blue – in the 1980s – it resulted in an oil price decline for several years. Heck, the last time the Saudis cut the oil price in this way it even featured in the TV series ‘Dallas’ with storylines about the oil companies of the Ewing family and Barnes-Wentworth going bust overnight. (Yes, I am old enough to remember that.).

Yes, we might get some bounce in the likes of USO and others this coming week but surely that will just be knife-catching in a declining market? What is going to make oil bounce back up 10 or 20 bucks in the short-term? The only thing that I can see doing that is the Cold War between the West and Russia suddenly going hot.

My main interest is more in how the price of oil affects the price of gold?

If oil continues to fall what affect does it have on gold and silver? Will all commodities fall in price along with oil or is it possible – I don’t know the answer btw – that gold and silver could go up whilst oil is going down?

What I do think happens though is that Gary’s bubble phase in the US stock-market continues and we get a big Christmas Santa rally now. For me, here in the UK, with the Pound now much weaker against the USD than earlier in the year it is painful to invest in US equities but, frankly, I can see the US markets going higher and also the Dollar getting stronger in the weeks to come.

Apologies, did not mean to turn this into an essay. Just whittering out loud. What do I know? 🙂

Oil often throws me a curve ball,
think they should relabel WTI as WTF ???

….it would make it more understandable to the man on the street that way.

Look guys these commodity prices are just the opinions of commodity traders who buy and sell paper. It has nothing to do with what owners and producers want for their product.
What is worse is that most owners and producers use these futures prices as a bench mark price for what is theirs and are denied the right to set the price for their product.
Frankly it flies in the face of common sense. One definition of insanity is doing the same thing over and over again and expecting a different result. Producers should quit producing at a loss or break even and hold out for a real profitable price for their production for their own benefit. Don’t agree to sell for the paper price. State your objective and challenge these middle men to play ball and if need be form your own cartels.

Chart on US debt V. Gold

http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-XkYaPGF8BHY/VHqxSn9SVjI/AAAAAAAA7ZM/TxzQe2MA1N4/s1600/usdebt03st20141130.gif

Well, the Swiss vote was no so tomorrow gold and gold miners should tank.

Maybe gold should be looked at as a “dingbats” investment?
Nothing saying the kenysians are wrong.
There are 9 “schools” of thought concerning economics?
Rickard attempts another one calling it “complexity” theory, but in reality, economics is 95% common sense and anything can be used as currency.
There is nothing proving gold is the be all end all thing to use, gold does not restrict government spening in the least, never has.
Maybe its all just cycles, feathers,seashells,wheat,gold,silver,bitcoin

As long as its fiat whatever is decided will work just fine.

Anyway, there “should” be a nice dip in the price of PMs for those wanting to “load up”.
Course black is sideways so maybe its to the moon.

Surely we start to see miners go bust, so many are already hemoraging cash.

The Swiss voted “NO” to GOLD!!! But why France, Germany and Netherlands wants to repatriating their GOLD? GUYS, It’s Central Banks and Citi Group gangsters GAME!!!

Expecting to see a BIG washout monday morning and a BIG bounce after it in the same day or even tuesday.

Al you have pride in the USA of old….not today…dwell on this.

Cory…It does not matter who is in power….power corrupts all…