Monday and The Doctor Is In
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J, if you watch the kitco list it makes no difference what you buy, they move together, the smaller ones price wise repeatedly show the biggest % moves of course.
But as long as the company is operating they are the same.
If a person wanted there are about 1/2 dozen gold companies that are profitable down to about 800 gold.
If/when gold turns up profits should be huge, especially for the 5 cent shares.
Last time. I (could have) made 50x my money on a couple had I held.
But 10x,20x were everywhere, my point is I guess I just don’t think it will matter much which shares are owned.
When gold turns a person will make money on pretty much any goldshare owned, bigger %s on cheapest stocks, obviously.
BB; I agree. I have large positions in 2 gold stocks that are making money and with minimal debt. One of them is still exploring for more reserves. I also own one that has huge amount of money in the bank and has found some high grade reserves. The last one which is a core holding is one with minimal float that has discovered high grade deposits which will be able to mined through open pit. I’m waiting for a lot of other large and mid tier companies bottom out and then will take positions in them. I figure the companies I own that are making large amount of cash flow and earnings will chug higher even though gold hangs down around these levels for awhile. The others will only get a bid when they get their costs under control and gold finally takes off. Of course, you’re correct that then everything will rise regardless.
BB………I would agree that your comments are well founded….in a parabolic move stage……tide lifts all boats. BUT, the in between stages are survival of the fittest .
j, in between the way to go has been short, except for catching bounces.
My point of course is everything is so far down now it wont matter, they will all pretty much spring higher when/if gold turns up.
Doc, you mention profitable miners, I agree, asr? is profitable to somewhere between 700-800 gold, on kitco, moves exactly the same as companies bleeding cash.
If the company stays operating the price will rise with gold, Ive noticed it doesn’t even matter the number of shares out now.
Obviously it matters where the profit line is as gold drops, but the money is made short in that scenario anyway. well, hgd in Canada at least.
The thing about catching bounces, its risky as heck compared to just going short.
Risk is something I personally still consider.
This is a crooked market, full of incompetancies, what happened to Larry Ray? for example? do the math!
when the gold market starts to head up, there will be lots of profit going long.crooked market or not, as long as it keeps operating of course.
rare earth…………took Larry………….
I agree with the “so far down”
bb……Shorting seems …so UNAMERICAN………………..lol
I understand what you mean about shorting, there is something strange about it for some reason, but really, going long or short is no different than red or black on a roulette wheel.
gather your info and make your guess.
Good point bb. But, we need a repeat of 2010.
Best way to maximize chances of success is to make bets at extremes: short for when moves tend to be too fast and toward parabolic in an upper phase,
and
long when moves tend to be too fast toward washout in a declining phase.
Most difficult is, IMHO, 1) to recognize the move on the chart, and 2) to have the guts to do so as this is ultimate contrarian -> yet this is where the risk/reward is the most on one’s favor.
My 2 cts,
LPG
Cory………………….the new world order………..the SECOND ROMAN EMPIRE is coming to an END………..
Big Al, gold is move by emotions. Tuesday we will see some selloff to profit taking. I see $1200 a good number.
Peter…1200 is a good number
Could not agree more Peter. At least, at this stage of the cycle!
All aboard! The train is leaving the station.
This is when we need good tech analysis? What wave is this today??? is it an “A” wave a right translated B- wave…haha!? NOT one person on this site will stick their neck out today after seeing what happened to poor Gary’s prognostications. Logically we should see some pull back but there has not been any logic in these “markets” for quite some time.
Big Al
You know who cares, YOU care, Cory cares, Doc cares, and so does everybody else who is on this chat room. So what are you going to do about it sit on the sidelines like a Toad on a lilly pad sunning yourself until you reaize the train has left the gold station.
Peter
Peter
Invest carefully is what I am doing, Peter.
I still am not comfortable with the notion that au will definitely go up from here. Are you?
Al,
If I may, to me, investing is about looking at the risk/reward profile.
It is not exactly about: “I’ll buy now as I now think it is DEFINITELY going up from here so I have comfort so I go ahead and buy.”
I don’t write this in a “mean” way. Just sharing my views.
Best,
LPG
As others have mentioned today, a lot of the PM stocks have not confirmed yet. Also, the oil move looks very weak and should not come roaring back. $hui looks unimpressive and won’t impress unless it takes out the 50 day MA and the corresponding upper BB starts to move significantly higher. However, there are other technicals that are encouraging. This will be a work in progress over a long time and is not destined to just take off. The most important chart is the monthly gold chart. If we take out the 50 month BB MA, the odds are good the low is in. Also, the gold price has to hold the long term uptrend line on the monthly chart.
I AGREE ! RICHARD COOL IS THE WAY DISS WILL TACE TIME ! BUY COOL !
Hello Richard,
As much as I like the price action on Gold, I am not exactly impressed by the stocks as well.
Granted, they are performing well, but they are not as up as I would expect they would be with such a gold turnaround… which would tend to suggest to me that it is a bottoming PROCESS. not a V-shaped recovery from the gutter.
I think there was A LOT of short covering occurring today on gold. The intraday jumps in price are telling me this, alongside the fact that sentiment + positioning + early morning price action was only in 1 direction (negative/short).
Just my 2cts.
I added last week on Friday on some stocks + on Jan 2016 GLD and SLV call options… I will wait for a lil pull in gold/silver to add more.
Best to all & GL.
LPG
Hi LPG,
I don’t think we are currently in a certain bull market for gold yet and I think that is the reason that many very savy investors are not going in the small companies “in size” quite yet.
Hello Al,
I think the move from a bear to a bull market is a process. In other terms, it takes time.
I suspect that when small companies are starting to move when gold is in a bull market, because they are “small”, the ramp up in their share price is quite steep (esp. if they are small and have intrinsic qualities – whatever the criteria one uses).
So I would suspect that one of the only ways to build size in small companies is to “buy right and sit tight”. This might imply missing the bottom (i.e buying before the bottom is in place) but this might avoid to have to scramble for shares when it is obvious for many market participants that a bottom in gold is in…
Let’s reflect on this for one second:
a bull market is always something called a “bull market” in hindsight. i.e. the price move demonstrates the nature of the move (bull or bear market).
So if one waits for price confirmation that a bull market is in place…if it becomes obvious for oneself, it is ALSO VERY LIKELY obvious to many other market participants…! hence the scramble for shares in small companies I referred to occurs.
This is why, again, personally, I try to look at the company’s fundamentals, consider the potential catalysts, the potential risk and pick my levels thanks to T.A and RISK/REWARD (I cannot emphasize this one enough).
And I keep in mind that the lower the price, the better the risk/reward in my favor.
I find this approach much more “rewarding” than waiting always for price to confirm something… cause waiting, esp. with small companies, can mean missing nice moves seriously. Simply put: when I wait for confirmation near what I view as bottoms, I run the risk to miss a good amount of upside quickly, while my risk (downside) is limited.
Let me put it this way, with a simple example:
Say you and I are looking at a company whose shares trades at say 20cts.
Mkts have been ugly but I tell myself: now is a good time to add – the share price is depressed, sentiment around gold is also depressed, lots of bad news are out with regards to gold, so I believe these bad news are priced-in, I like the level of 20cts from a technical angle etc etc etc…. => So I buy some shares at 20cts. Now, with this level, my free ride is when the shares hit 40cts.
Say you wait a little for gold prices to SHOW YOU it is in a bull market.
By the time the price of gold shows you it is in a “certain bull market”, this small company’s share price can by then be at 25, 30, 35 or even 40cts right ?
[ side note: In weeks 2 and 3 in Nov, a bunch of the adds I made late Oct/early Nov were up 20-50% while I didn’t buy at the exact early Nov. bottom… And that was just as gold made a move from 1340 back to 1200, give or take a few bucks.. So a 20-50% move in some stocks on the back of a a $60 bucks move for gold means that if you need gold to move say $100 to get your price confirmation that we are again in a certain bull market for gold, then these stocks can be up much more than 20-50%. Eaaaaaaaasy.]
Back to my example:
so if you picked up shares at 25cts, your free ride is at 50cts. If you picked them at 30cts, it is at 60cts. It is @ 70cts if you got them at 35cts, and finally, it is at 80cts if you picked them up at 40cts… Fine…..
….Fine…. But there’s one interesting thing here: if you are finding it difficult to get the shares in the high 30cts and you finally say “ok, I can’t get them at 38-39cts as they seem to move higher because the bull market on gold seems to be back”, then you might place an order at 40cts to finally get your shares.
You are now long and waiting to ride the gold’s bull. You had your price confirmation on gold, you had your eyes on these shares for a while, and, albeit a bit more than the 38-39cts you wanted to pay, you got the shares, 40cts. Not a bad deal as you think they’ll be worth $1, $2 or $3-$4 over the next 2-5yrs. Fine.
But at that point, when you placed the order at 40cts, I might just have sold you 1/2 of my shares. And then, I am enjoying my free-ride, ABSOLUTELY STRESS FREE.
Again, I will quote Rick Rule as I think this quote is brilliant and AT THE CORE of successful investing:
“you cannot have good prices and comfort – you have to pick one”.
By picking ugly prices, you increase your chances of comfort. Period.
I’ll make a confidence. Back in the internet days, in 1999, I bought a tech stocks, first time for me. The company had been the best performer in the market the year before, it’s chart was going to the upper right corner… and pundits were saying the prospects for the company were still great.
I bought the day the share toped. And I bought at the all-time high. Can’t get more wrong than that. I can say I was “a rookie” at the time. But that was a good lesson learned.
Back to Rick Rule: one cannot have good prices and comfort. When I buy some shares at what I seem are ugly prices these days, I honestly have a lot of comfort.
Maybe in hindsight I will be proven to have been a fool, but I really like the risk/reward I see on many of the stocks I look at. And I certainly don’t want to wait for confirmation that we are in a certain bull market. I need to sell these shares at 40cts, no need more than that ! 🙂
Best to you, as always, and thanks for all you & Cory’s work for us.
LPG
Big Al
The only logical reason for the three muskateers on the sideline is tax loss selling.
So be it own up to it, what’s the big deal?
Peter
Call me crazy Peter, but tax loss selling is not a big issue to me this year!
Your crazy Peter, haha. (;-)
The volume on Friday when the GDX was hit was huge; so far today, the volume for the GDX move up is at this time only about 25% of the volume on Friday. I’ll say it again; the bottoming process is going to take time and is a work in progress.
Doc end of the month squaring off is where the volume came from on Friday.
Peter
Peter, you could be right about that. Good observation.
Al , Doc, Cory,
Thank you for your comments about accumulation over time….. some of us understand how that investment startegy does work!!
Gotta tell you Ron, I for one, certainly do.
Quote:
“All the pain and suffering over the last two years will be totally forgotten when this move tops out north of 1500 over the next year. Thats right, 1500 over the next year.”
http://rambus1.com/?p=2301
-note the date: Jan 27 2012
-thanks to Gary from the rabbit hole.
Irwin, are you saying this rambus guy is “nuts”?
in 2012 he said we were on our way up and weve taken nothing but beatings.
Everything that goes up comes down, everything that goes down comes up, cycles, that’s how life works, anyone can say which way things will go and eventually be right, but 2 years early is just gonna cost a person money.
iPretty sure we’re all nuts!
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AZ9OEVk3T3k
WHO WAS RAMBUS?…………
Most folks only remember the last “deal” Irwin!
One thing crossed my mind and I thought I’d share…
As I mentioned in a post earlier, I’m not super impressed by the price action on the PM stocks.
One of the reasons I haven’t been more aggressive on the stocks was that I am really not comfortable with the way the conventional markets are behaving at the moment. I think there’s way too much complacency: markets still near all time high while there are some severe moves going on on currency mkets, and this, IMHO, might start to transpire in other asset classes… and not for the better.
Bottom line: if US mkets start to feel the pinch, I suspect PM stocks might take a pinch as well, even if the metals behave properly.
I keep thinking about 1987: a currency-induced market correction. On the day of the big drop, gold did fine (was up), and so did the PM stocks (they held their ground). The next day: PM stocks moved down big time, while gold came under pressure.
Just sharing my thoughts.
GL to all,
LPG
I can guarantee you we’ll see another flush in the conventional market like the one in September. Volatility is just waiting in the wings. Of course, it might be a flush in an ongoing bull market. Volatility has established a higher low on the VIX and is getting prepared for another move lower.
Brilliant interview from Chris Powell: calm, composed, clear, to the point.
This is the type of interview that we need to see occurring on large medias such as CNBC (although their audience seems to go down year after year) as opposed to some of the hysteric “gold bugs” who appear on TV once in a while and which, IMHO, do damage to “the cause”.
Thanks for this link RIchard.
Best to all,
LPG
LPG; you took the words right out of my mouth. What is unusual about this interview is that it was held on CNBC. The other thing unusual is that the moderators didn’t try to discredit this guy or infer he was bonkers. Maybe, just maybe some of these mainstream financial news outlets are starting to get a clue. Then again, maybe the higher ups have some ulterior motive.
+1 RIchard on your comment.
Day never stop ! Good interview !
Al,
How can you take emotions out of it, investiing is mostly about emotions snd how to handle it
Well Catman, I guess that is another way to put it. I stand corrected!
Catman,
A humble suggestion:
have a plan and a plan after the plan. Execute the plan as per the plan UNLESS something dramatic changes.
This takes away A LOT of the emotions.
Having a plan = you’re prepared.
If you are prepared, there are fewer surprises, and you have decided IN ADVANCED what to do under various potential scenarios. That’s a big advantage compared to… well… anyone who doesn’t do this.
If you are prepared, you don’t have to make “last minutes decisions” or rush into something under pressure.
If you are prepared, you have less surprises, and you are hence under less stress (mkets against your positions) or hysteria (mket going on the direction of your position). Both of them are ill advisors typically.
If you plan (and have a plan after the plan), you might feel like an emotionless kinda robot sometimes when it comes to executing the plan, but I would suspect that you will feel more “relaxed”/composed during times of volatility (“crazy markets”).
My 2 cents – just sharing experience.
Best to you and GL investing/trading.
LPG
Good thoughts Doc.
The real scare for PM investors the next 5 or so years has got to be deflation. I really hope we don’t test 2008 lows in the commodity world, or worse go under but each passing day after read the news, talk with people, read the stats, look at the charts, etc…it just seems that going lower and lower is inevitable. ..this could be a very important week for PM investors.
TenYear; the charts are now screaming double bottom for the commodities referable to 2009. I mentioned about 3 weeks ago how the $CRB looked like it wanted to breakdown. That’s one of the reasons I feel that the PMs still have some work to do. I can’t conceive of a large break up in the PMs if the the commodities are in free fall. Of course, that doesn’t say that the PMs will proportionately break down with the commodities or that they can’t hold their own.
Irwin $1500 hardly eases all the pain and suffering
As a matter of fact if all we get is $1500 by another year it would be a failure
If you state it is not investment advice… why cant Doc tell us what gold companies he holds…
When asked nicely and politely, Richard/Doc discloses some of his holdings………
He has done it in the not too distant past.
LPG
Doc can say whatever he wants to say, Sally!
very fine Powell interview…. hmmmmm… timing…
Sally; I also wonder about the timing. I’ve often wondered if the Fed wants higher inflation and want to manipulate inflation into the system; why would they continuously suppress the gold price. It would be counterproductive. Maybe, now the message has gone out to highlight the manipulation in the system in order to ultimately end it.
I’m with Sally on this one LPG, Doc speaks in a very sweeping fashion anyone can speak that way after the fact. When i make my decsion somehow I always find my money is always on the table……….this real trading.
Peter
Hello Peter,
Maybe I misunderstood Sally’s angle. If so, my bad and apologies to Sally.
It’s just that Richard has in the not too distant past disclosed some of his holdings. Hence my comment. I THINK I even have sent a list to myself as an email for ref: purposes. 🙂
Although I cannot speak on Richard’s behalf, I would suspect that some people, sometimes, do not want to disclose positions they hold in some stocks, esp. small companies, as they don’t wanna be seen as “pumping them” – even by simply mentioning them.
Also, still for small size companies, just the fact of mentioning “I will add today or tomorrow if gold drops” MIGHT make you run the risk to be front run by others who listen. So you might not want to take the risk to pay more just because you mentioned the name.
If I take an example to illustrate: Claude Resources.
Al mentioned with a 3 days notice: “I’ll buy on Wednesday” (last week). I am personally sure some of us on the site front run him. Bottom line: he had to put an order, which I suspect was @ >=30cts. While if he had not disclosed his purchase in advance and had not HAD TO buy on wednesday, he could have had it @ <30cts (……….. 🙂 🙂 🙂 ).
So for this kind of reason, I see a point why, in certain circumstances, some people might not be keen to disclose some of the adds they are gonna make or some of the new positions they are about to initiate.
Personally, I've mentioned I think 1 or 2 stocks in the past that are my holdings. But I am relatively comfortable in doing so because they have a "decent amount" of liquidity per day. So I can't be seen as pumping them. But again, for some small companies, I can understand why some people might refrain themselves from mentioning them.
Best to you, and again, apologies to Sally if I misunderstood your angle.
LPG
Hi LPG
Listening to Big Al’s comment today that he, Cory, and Doc are on the sidelines is very clear, but when you listen to Doc he is buying and he likes what he is doing. There seems to be a discrepency and a major disconnect here amungst the muskateers. When i hear Al say they are on the sidelines the only logical reason would be they have had losses and are engaging in tax loss selling, very clear in my humble opinion. The only issue is they don’t own up to it.
Peter
No Peter, in reality I am okay with my positions.
I have disclosed every single one of my decisions to sell in the past three days prior to “pulling the trigger”.
I would point out that I gave three days notice re: Claude and I lost about 10% in that transaction. Now it was not that big a transaction, about $3.5K, but it is the principal of the deal!
Trust me Peter, Doc’s “real money” is on the table!
Al
Doc keeps saying there is no hurry, but he keeps stating he is buying.
This does NOT add up. Sounds like someone is nerves.
Peter
It adds up perfectly. He has stated very clearly that according to the charts some have already bottomed, while others still have a ways to go.
short covering – nothing more.
be careful
Wishful thinking on your part Ken, markets go UP on short covering thats bullish.
Whether you buy long or short cover it is bullish. Just my opinion.
Peter
My my the bid closes at 1212.90
A dime higher than my 1212.80 bottom call
Right on queue
Haha, I laughed when I saw the close and had to double check your call!;-)
The bid did close on the Kitco site at $1212.80
MARKET ALERT!!!
Massive volume shares registered on GDX and GDXJ:
25.534778 GDX shares / $19,77/ 16:04pm (after market)
1.250.000 GDXJ shares/ $27,71/ 17:24 pm (after market)
$Gold Monthly
A price flag has now come up for the low in stock charts.com monthly gold chart:
Big night for gold.
We need follow through
Let’s hope
GDX and GDXJ have some catching up to do….
If you think gold went up a lot today in USD, just look at it priced in yen….
We keep hearing the Asians have a love affair with gold yet they seems to be selling again
Doc,
This is getting old doc you keeping say I buying but what? let see if your techinicals are really good
Silver’s big plunge last night just allowed it to backtest its breakout versus oil:
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SILVER:$WTIC&p=M&yr=20&mn=0&dy=0&id=p32694551671&a=374029009&listNum=1
Silver is going to outperform oil for years.
Gold priced in the 30 year T-bond just turned resistance into support:
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$GOLD:$USB&p=M&yr=15&mn=11&dy=30&id=p37758522369&a=371809762&listNum=1
Another look at $GOLD:$USB
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$GOLD:$USB&p=M&yr=20&mn=11&dy=0&id=p35331016214&a=376478591&listNum=1
GOLD priced in the USDX minus the dollar:
Big bullish engulfing pattern:
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$GOLD:UDN&p=W&yr=3&mn=0&dy=0&id=p84785368455&a=376633968
Gold (non-log) reversal at support:
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$GOLD&p=W&yr=5&mn=3&dy=0&id=p04191648784&a=375393141
Richard-I’m not sure if this is what you meant but in a bull market more news items are,seemingly, taken by the market as being bullish;whereas in a bear market it is the opposite.It helps to put news like the Referendum in perspective. The news was negative but look what happened.
Hey Doc, whats up? During December I think gold will rally and equities will correct. Are you watching the DOW/gold ratio, and if so, any significant level/price to watch (currently it’s ~14.68)?
Mike; I’m watching the monthly ratio. The 200 month MA stands at about 20.5 and is now dropping. The ratio is currently 14.68. I believe that the 200 month MA has to work its’ way lower to impact pricing. I believe that’s going to be the key for the ratio to move significantly lower again—-just another reason why I feel we have a long way to go yet before we see the next significant move up for gold. By the way, you could be correct on your call for gold and equities especially toward the end of the month. I believe it’s only time before volatility spikes again for the equities which are struggling again at these levels. The russell 2000 appears to want to break down again. I’m currently long volatility and will probably add when it breaks out on the weekly (VIX).
Thanks Doc. I agree with you. Looks like RUT may want to retest the resent lows. I am also long volatility via TVIX. This should be an interesting month!
I wouldn’t read too much into todays gold market there is so much manipulation and The Banks are creating both sides of the fence on the way down and on the way up. None of this will stop until the system crashes and the cleansing can begin.
This is what an extremely bullish base (from which to launch) looks like.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=GDXJ&p=W&yr=4&mn=8&dy=22&id=p83332694945&a=376538435
Yes. But could base for 12 months or more before a significant rally. This is an early indication.
It has been basing for well over a year already and average daily volume has grown dramatically to ten or fifteen times the 2013 average. I can’t think of any example in which a market went on to do nothing after such a volume spike. Look at the Dow/S&P in 2009 or silver in 2011 or ???
Stocks look like a SELL to me.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPX&p=M&yr=15&mn=0&dy=0&id=p08445860304&a=362100642
It took nearly 7 years, but Dow:GLD just filled a big gap. In doing so, it has also retraced 50% of its long decline.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$INDU:GLD&p=M&yr=15&mn=10&dy=0&id=p26188562224&a=366834118
Matthew,
Thank you for posting the links to all these charts.
Very interesting multi asset-classes perspectives.
Best to you,
LPG
Matt,
What was the platform or brokerage house you use to do trades? Thanks in advance.
Do you use stockcharts payed subscription for live prices?
I use…
https://www.interactivebrokers.com/ind/en/main.php
I do have a paid subscription with stockcharts but I use the broker (IB) for live prices. You can do everything you need including your charting at IB.
Thanks a bunch 🙂
Im personally with td water house but not satisfied as they have been having glitches which I can’t afford when money is on the line.
Will be interesting to see what the London open does tonight ?……if anything ?
Nobody mentioned Moody’s downgrade of Japan’s debt yesterday.
To me, that was a noteworthy news, which might have played a role in gold/silver snapping back from intraday lows (although I have looked at the timing coincidence to be honest).
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-12-01/three-reasons-why-moodys-just-downgraded-japan-aa3-a1
Maybe it’s not as important of a “news” as I think…
Best to all, GL investing.
LPG
Don Coxe on BNN Commodities Report well worth a listen. About oil. Saudi, Russia, the mining industry, etc. Whole half hour is good.
I like him. When was it?
Still on… Eldorado on now.
It will repeat and should be on the website;
It may take a few hours to get posted on website, I am not sure.
IT is always about purchasing the right stocks……………