A very interesting observation at today’s close from Gary
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Gary,
You call a bottom or you don’t
Don’t waffle!
Stand pat and stop trying to hedge.
This was just another orchestrated takedown
Stop with the $1050 calls
Anyone who sticks their head in the sand and ignores potential manipulation is just asking to get squashed. This is how I called the last three intermediate tops almost perfectly by watching for signs of a manipulation top.
Keep in mind this isn’t a guarantee that the metals are going back down, just that some warning flags are popping up. If it turns out the warning is valid then be ready to hedge long positions.
“This is how I called the last three intermediate tops almost perfectly by watching for signs of a manipulation top.”
How about all your myriad of horrid misses which outnumber your correct calls by a whopping margin? Oh yeah, that would be no way to get subscribers.
http://blog.smartmoneytrackerpremium.com/2014/12/chart-day-52.html#comments
May I ask what the point is of this road map that cannot be bet upon unless one wishes to lose money without a doubt?
http://blog.smartmoneytrackerpremium.com/2010/03/third-leg-is-now-underway.html
How did this roadmap work out? Can you say completely wrong and if anyone based any investments on it, they’d be living under a bridge with no clothes on their back, pan-handling for crumbs.
And I’m sure your blog is littered with hundreds of such wrong speculative guesses.
Gary.. but why just gdx.. not gdxj.. or could be because those big boys hold senior miners recently?
Also EURUSD is down today… ok.. enough for my amateur guess… 🙂
Genesys,
GDXJ had similar action but not nearly as pronounced.
thank you Big Al… you’re right.
Gary,
I a giving you every chance to be on the right side on this call
Make the call and stick to it
Stop using every little thing to change your mind or hedge your bet
Make the call. You will be right or wrong
Don’t try to play both ends
Another Day, Another Epic Gold(Miner) Slamdown
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-12-03/another-day-another-epic-goldminer-slamdown
Wow, I sold my GDX about 2 minutes before this via market order. That was dumb, but I was lucky. Another lesson to always use limit orders. At least it was not a painful lesson
maybe too many ppl thinking like you Derek.. 🙂
Someone bought 25 million shares of GDX the other day about 4 minutes after the close, but that apparently had no significance so why should this….
Yes exactly. There have been big moves at the end of the day constantly lately in the junior minors (individual stocks) and this get reflected in the ETFS that track the composite of these stocks. Many times there 1-5 million shares sold and purchased in a direction change, and it looks like profit taking or short covering in most cases.
Ray and Shad,
Let’s what happens tomorrow!
Many times the Gap up or down in GDXJ has been extremely volatile. Last week on Wed 26th closed at 28.66 and then a gap down to open at 25.20 on Friday after Thanksgiving holiday. Friday closes at 26.77 then after hour & premarket gap up to $27.68 by Monday morning (some of that was driven by gold price reversal after Sun selloff). Then at the end of the day on Tuesday a spike from $25.48 up to 26.39 at the close.
It just seems like at the very end of the day there is massive buying or selling in the junior stocks as a whole, which translates to big moves in GDXJ. Granted, most of the big moves are further extended into after hours trading and pre market action.
This is NUGT/DUST influencing the market.
I thought the topic was going to be silver closing within pennies of $16.50 three days in a row. Gives me the heebie-jeebies.
Agreed for the major miners, and then JNUG and JDST for the juniors. These leveraged ETFS add lubrication to the moves because they are are also well bid each day and affect things more an more each month and the miners that are included in these ETFS portfolios.
Overthinking gary, stop flip flopping
Gary is getting whipsawed, just like he said traders would !!! hehe
I haven’t sold anything. But I am prepared to hedge my long positions if it turns out that the banksters are going to try and extend the intermediate decline artificially long.
Gary i’m just kidding with you but i think you may be right. Miners look weak and gold is getting capped and now gdx got attacked by alogo pricing mechanism. Harvey is out with same opinion as yours so tomorrow might be interesting.
Gary might be onto something here
Harvey Organ: Cartel Signals PM Attack Coming Thursday!
Posted on December 3, 2014 by The Doc 1 Comment 429 views
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Gold straddled the 1200 dollar mark at midnight as the bankers were adamant to not let gold pass this important mark in the sand. Obviously the bankers have huge toxic derivatives underwritten at these levels.
However by 3 am (London first fix) gold traded at $1208.40. Then immediately the bankers went to work knocking the metal back down to exactly 1200 dollars again. It then rose to $1213.00 by the 2nd London fix at 10 am and then it settled as indicated above (comex closing and access market close).
Silver was much more volatile and the bankers were intent on knocking this precious metal down despite gold being higher.
This is a signal that an attack will be coming forth tomorrow.
http://www.silverdoctors.com/harvey-organ-cartel-signals-pm-attack-coming-thursday/
Gary what are your thoughts that if cartel hits its 10xx target why would they not continue this manipulation lower? Lower gold price protects dollar and makes dollar look stronger. Alogos work pretty good so far for them. Why quit? Only thing i can think is is NO physical supply at lower prices but what that price point is no one knows. Anyone else care to comment on this???
Gary, no trouble at all. What was dumped in GDX was bought in GDXJ after it. I saw on NASDAQ….
Peter i’m not sure about Harvey but Marshal Swing featured often on silverdoctors has been nailing cartel attacks pretty good. He has been quite lately. I have him on facebook. I may hit him up for an opinion. Hopefully he won’t be annoyed by that.
Peter,
Your calls have been very good thus far. Pretty much inline with my thing. Good job.
I just messaged Marshall Swing. Let’s see what he’s thoughts are. I always try to get few peoples opinion and make my own after i hear the arguments from each. Anyway.
MURK MURK MURK OR NO MURK?
There is an enormous divergence in many smart analysts thoughts on a if we hit bottom. It’s 50/50 at best. All of the pundits here and elsewhere have been right and wrong along the way. At the end of the day, it’s what you think you know that isn’t so that gets you in trouble. We all think the economy is unhealthy. Lots of big money begs to differ and sees low inflation, expanding GDP…an environment not helpful to rising gold prices so what do we know that isn’t so?
Gold generally makes big directional moves up or down at the beginning or end of each quarter. These moves would push as far as 200 dollars. Is this price manipulation to enhance gold bank’s profits or bonus’s? If this is the case i would expect the next move at the end of the month/beginning of next month.
I am just an enthusiastic amateur but I had the same thoughts as Gary about someone having inside info of a smackdown coming when the miner etfs went down.
If the market is just manipulated then why invest at all? It surely can be manipulated up as well as down, as the spike in 2011 shows…
They can’t manipulate the physical, Tim (UK), not without “the gloves coming off”; i.e., outright confiscation of physical metal, which would mean the shyster paper game would be up. Right now everybody plays with paper fiat currency because they’ve been told for 3 generations to believe in governmental power.
Speaking as an American (my only reference point), imagine you are 18 years old and you want to buy your first car from the only car dealership in town. Everybody knows the dealer is a liar, a cheat, and a thief, charging outrageous prices and horrendous contracts that penalize anyone transacting with him. But the dealer has a monopoly in the town on selling and fixing automobiles, and has paid off the police, town mayor, and the city councillors. There is no competition, not unless you can somehow leave the town altogether (ex-patriate). So you go to the dealer knowing you are getting cheated but unable to do anything about it, and knowing you are going to pay, pay, pay. That is our “free” marketplace today.
So precious metals are manipulated to the downside because the Big Boys make more money on Fear than they do Greed. They can make infinite stock that they can fraudulently short without getting called on the actual stock they own. It’s harder to make stock go up. There’s competition to a stock that is very valuable as the wolves and vultures circle around it, trying to tear it down so they get a piece.
Nobody is allowed to transact in actual physical gold or silver bullion like they used to over a hundred years ago. No grocery store owner (that I know of) will take 90% silver or a 1/10-ounce gold coin in exchange for anything. They want the government-backed fiat currency. Which is why The Powers That Be have a vested interest in keeping the public from recognizing gold and silver as money, instead of slips of paper as money. This is one reason why gold and silver are being manipulated.
Hello all,
My 2cts on this “market event” or, said it differently, EOD (end of day) price action.
Today (Thursday as I write) there is an ECB and BOE decision re: rates.
Although this might seems like a “zzzzzzzzzzzz” topic, there is a TENDENCY/TREND for gold to be weak/taken down/move lower on this kind of days (my view is due to my simple OBSERVATION of gold prices behavior during this type of day, over the past few months, a few months being about 12-15mths).
Given that GDX/GDXJ were having a good day yesterday (wednesday), if I wanted to position for a move down in gold on Thursday, I would have several avenues to do so, among which:
* short GDX/GDXJ
* short JNUG, NUGT
* go long DUST/JDST
* buy Puts on GLD/spot Gold
* sell Calls on GLD/Spot gold
* short GLD/Spot gold…
* short gold futures contract [and buy puts or sell calls on the futures]
Or I could do any of the combos above.
As a side note, I haven’t looked at the activities on the derivatives/options market to see if there was a spike in activity in some contracts there as well. But this would be interesting. HOWEVER, if I expect a short-lived down move, I bet on instruments/assets which have a short term duration or that have no duration (ETFs=no duration). So based on that, if I have a short-term view, if I play the derivatives, I would go for short-dated derivatives, not long-dated.
IN TERMS OF TIMING OF THE TRADE:
If I really wanted to position for a down move, I would try to catch, as far as the ETFs are concerned, as much of a top as I can get (the closer to the top that I forecast, the better my risk/reward).
TYPICALLY, there is a lot of liquidity within the last few minutes of trading on the ETFs (normal ETFs and the 3x leveraged ones), with TYPICALLY result in a countertrend whipsaw of the trend that occurred the day. IMHO, this is simply due to profit taking/squaring of positions after a nice day run in one direction (be it up or down).
SO IF I wanted to bet on a gold decline, I would let an uptrend move unfold, and short when I think the price is close to a top AND liquidity is there. AND IF I CAN SCARE EVERYONE OFF, even better. So if I can also get the algos and mo-mo trackers kicking off on the back of my order, then, it’s even better.
Let’s go back to yesterday price action:
1) nice up day on GDX, GDXJ
2) still up nicely toward the close
==> perfect opportunity to short just before the close, in big volume (or dump shares if someone is long, although I think it’s more the case of a short than a dump of long – but who knows ?).
*******
There is ALSO another possibility that someone wanted to DEFEND A SHORT POSITION… but I believe that what happened (dumping/shorting of ETFs) is more likely due to what I detailed up above, for some of the reasons I mention.
Does it mean a massive ($30, $50, or more) gold take down will occur today ? or today AND tomorrow due to tomorrow’s release of the US job’s report ? I frankly have no clue….
….I have no clue BUT I will just highlight that SINCE MONDAY (and including MONDAY itself) the price action on the miners was good but NOT AS EXCITING as some of us, including myself wished (I believe Richard was also of that view).
So instead of trying to catch a bottom “it is here, it is there, it was likely here, it was likely there, 7th Nov, not 7th Nov, it is to come….” I personally, and fwiw, prefer to take positions at levels where I like the risk/reward. That means not chasing on up moves, but buying when prices come to me (i.e move down).
I try to let the technicals work out their way/do their magic on stocks that I want to increase my exposure to (cause I like these stocks on a fundamental basis). Patience Patience Patience… P-a-t-i-e-n-c-e. [if I am not clear, please check this: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ErvgV4P6Fzc ]
Personally, I we get a move below $1100 on gold, I’ll be getting a tad more of GLD and SLV Jan 16 Calls, but with strike prices below those I already have.
I will also likely add to some of my miners, at levels I have determined ALREADY. That’s the plan, and orders are ready. Tax-loss selling season, no tax-loss selling season, whatever CNBC, Bloomberg TV says [PS: I have stopped watching those long time ago… too much “noise”], my plan is ready.
As I mentioned in a post before, I am not going big yet on the miners as I am still CONCERNED about another broad market correction, which will not leave the miners unscathed, IMHO.
I have a plan ALSO for after that plan in case things don’t go according to this next plan (which is the case 95% of the time 🙂 ).
GL to all investing/trading,
LPG
PS: for those who missed it: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ErvgV4P6Fzc
Isn’t last night’s stock dump into the close similar to 11/28’s closing spike in selling volume for gdx? The next day saw a nice pop in price.
If GDX was purchased during Gary’s commentary of huge institutional buying, then selling at 17-18 was probably a 50-60% profit in less than 30 days.
My hommie came threw haha
http://www.silverdoctors.com/marshall-swing-warns-much-bigger-pm-crash-is-coming/
I did not know the same flash crash hit Apple the day before
Volatility at yesterday’s close accentuated primarily by action in NEM.
May be manipulation, but not across the board for GDX components.
FWIW
These charts in combination with TLS could be brutal short term but promising once idiot selling season is over.
http://www.kitco.com/ind/Maund/2014-12-03-Silver-Market-Update.html
Interesting times for sure. I have noticed over the last few weeks a huge selloff in GDXJ many times at the close. I think it could be explained most simply with profit taking from an institutional size investor, due to the wild whip saw swings in price.
Go back an look at the daily closes since October in GDXJ and this often happens in the last 10 minutes of trading (up or down spike).