It all depends where you look in the gold market
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I agree, weak Canadian dollar and falling energy costs are great news for the Canadian miners.
Hope they cancel out some of effect of the low gold/silver price. Lower Canadian dollar also soften the blow for gas companies and may help oil companies a little too.
Hello all,
I tend to agree with Richard on many angles.
In my view, everything is currently priced for a great 2015 for the US mket:
great dollar, weak yen, weakening Euro, much skepticism on the Eurozone, and finally the idea that the US economy is doing not only better than all others, but good/well.
All of this points to a stronger dollar, especially as many believe the Fed will raise rates at some point in 2015.
Now, with this sentiment so anchored among participants, the point is that if ANYTHING surprises compared to expectations, there might be a lot of flow leaving the USD, pushing the precious metals. And IMHO, the PMs can start to move higher on jitters in the US equity markets, which will not be translated into strength into the PM stocks. Personally, I think this is what we currently see – PM doing ok, but most PM stocks still not following through, esp. those who have the CAD main listing (at least that’s what I observer from my own list).
So I am personally still quite comfortable with the risk reward on PM here, and I’ve added very very selectively to stocks recently… just a touch, and on nice pullbacks toward support zones. BUT, I am still quite concerned of the PM stocks still not moving higher as much as I hope – and maybe it is just the tax-selling effect in Canada, while my mind thinks conventional markets weakness coming soon.
Best to all,
LPG
Afternoon LPG,
Tax loss selling and a lack of interest has got to be a major cause.
Al,
When you wrote “afternoon”, I suspect you meant “good morning” 🙂
1) I agree on Tax loss selling a cause
2) I kind of agree on lack of interest
3) but I also think FX might have something to do with it too
Irrespectively, I believe this cocktail is potentially the perfect recipe for a nice up move in the very upcoming weeks.
Maybe the lack of performance of GDXJ and many of the juniors I’m looking at is not really due to them starting to discount potential upcoming broad market weakness/pullback but has more to do with the 1, 2, 3 above.
Net-net, I am not changing what I’ve been doing over the past few weeks:
1) choosing my stocks,
2) pick up levels,
3) adding some little tranches according to the plan.
Slowly slowly but firmly. Sticking with the plan. Rinse, repeat.
LPG
“When going through hell, keep walking”
Again a link on a light note for something very important which Richard highlighted:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ErvgV4P6Fzc
Bringing some memories 🙂
GL investing/trading,
LPG
RELAX ! LPG ! https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cay8GC9N8ak
RELAX ALL OK ! https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=81vQje8bWmo
Couple of good ones, James!
Nice one James..
Hope we never turn this way…
Best,
LPG
Many, many years ago, LPG
DOC, you said bye bye to the conventional market?
No; I’m just going long volatility which I believe has a good chance on ramping up in January and also a good part of 2015. I haven’t said that the conventional market bull run is over; all I know is that volatility is going to pick up and it’s not going to reflect greed, so the opposite (fear) is going to be present. That’ll mark sell-offs.
Hey guys,
Good post above LPG and good insight doc.
These markets are full of whipsaw action and in the short term very unpredictable if that is the word I can use. Im not going to make any more guesses as to direction of market but I will say this that wti oil is getting close to a number and resistance that I think will at least provide a bounce. Longer term i believe the trend is down.
As to gold im quite baffled. Some miners are showing signs of strength particularly those that did not move much previous week. I now see those stocks taking a run above the 50 dma on the daily. On the other hand the miners that already hit there 50 dma previous or went slightly above today were showing plenty of weakness. I think this all comes down to what Doc has been saying. We are in a bottoming process of which some miners still need to come down like yamana and hit there long time lows while others have either already made them or have gotten much close. I thought we would get hit hard this week and the week is not over yet but i would not discount an up week and then down. Ultimately i feel we have not hit the bottom in gold as of yet. Id like nothing more then one last buying opportunity at discounted prices. If it happens it happens and if not well i sure hope some of you have accumulated shares already.
Good luck to all. May we all prosper.
Glen; couldn’t agree with you more on Yamana—-I’m watching the 50 day MA coming down to intersect pricing. I believe that’ll drive the price lower. The weekly pricing chart for Yamana looks like it’s out at the end of a high diving board waiting for that final dive. I’m then a big time buyer. Of course, it could surprise us.
Doc,
Thanks for sharing that with us.
I sold half at 4.5 Canadian dollar. Hope I can get it back cheaper. Otherwise I wouldn’t worry about it. My principle is not chasing stocks. Anytime I break this rule, I get my punishment.
Glen Great post! 🙂
Did you take a position yesterday on your trading portfolio? Yes I took a position and what i though to be a 50/50 call. Good thing i did as im up pretty today..
I’m getting the “itch”. The strong finish for gold today was very positive. What would be perfect would be for gold to move down the rest of the week and then sideways into the end of December. That would allow a lot of the miners to hand around at the lower end of their trading ranges. If that happens, I’m a buyer. If it turns against me, I can then move out of positions with minimal losses; if we would move higher then a good base position is in place.
Pulled out house money many moons ago. Just waiting for a new entry point to potentially add to existing AUY positions. It certainly is much easier doing it that way, and you don’t worry about paper losses that mean nothing. Thank for your assessment Doc…. as I have been watching this stock to make money again on it.
How about a morning pop to lure more in and then down doc?
Many of these pops will lure funds to change algorithm to sell rally. It could be very useful when cartel starts to bring the price up continuously
Glen good call on the pop 🙂
How long does it last? Well since im not a fortune reader I’d have to say as long as gold stays up..
Great to hear you speaking again Doc. I am pretty much in agreement with most of what you were saying today. I like your sense of optimism with regards to gold stocks too. I am also getting that itch you speak of. This does finally look like a time to start getting serious about the miners again and it sure as hell has been a long time coming….an agonizing wait actually. Just a little bottoming to go this month and we are in great entry zones for quite a lot of this market.
So did you finally launch your newsletter? Where can I find it?
HI BIRDMAN ! NICE YOUR BECK ! What you think off Roger ? And What you think off diss ? http://finance.yahoo.com/video/hillary-clinton-under-fire-enemies-171107885.html
Thanks Franky. Why did you change your name by the way?
You now Pastor Al Korelin ! https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PRWH9sw_98E
BIG BIRD AL……..CLIPPED HIS WINGS………………….LOL…
Frankie james………..where is Jessie james………………..
We’ve put out 2 issues and trying to refine it. Send the e-mail where you want it sent to big Al and he’ll make sure you get the next one coming out.
Very cool. Will do. I appreciate your technicals so it would be great to have a look. Your timing on getting up and running looks pretty good to me.
+1 for the itch Birdman….
… although the little pacman in me has started nibbling already…
Nibble nibble nibble…
Pac pac pac pac…
Nibble nibble nibble
Pac pac pac pac…
🙂
I think I really need some sleep 🙂
Best to all and welcome back Birdman.
LPG
Doc and Rick do you have any particular downside targets for GDXJ index?
Thank you in advance.
Stewie; from a pivot point standpoint, Rick could probably give you an answer. I’m no longer looking at a price as much as the monthly chart where GDXJ is sitting right on the lower bollinger band which is pointing laterally. I may make a small purchase this week since I believe based on the monthly chart there doesn’t appear to be any suggestion of a significant move down. If the weekly momentum indicator continues to move laterally next week, I’ll certqinly take a position. It won’t be a huge position since I like to see further verification before I add significantly. Hope that helps.
Stewie, GDXJ could go either way right now. If it closes this week below the close in October, it could slowly drip lower over the next 2-3 months. This December is crucial for how it aligns from a momentum standpoint. Like I posted earlier, I’m going to be watching it carefully and may nibble in the next 2 weeks when the odds favor a position.
Thank you Doc. Much appreciate it 🙂
What is your website, Doc? There is nothing on the Korelin banner pointing to you or the introductory newsletter.
Bird; I’ll have Al get back to you—-he’s the keeper of the keys.
Rick A. bought GDXJ calls today on his hidden pivot tout at 23.54. NICE “call” Rick.
GDXJ has essentially bottomed from a big-picture perspective. Days like today are for buying.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=GDXJ&p=M&yr=10&mn=0&dy=0&id=p67367263947&a=379745126
Matt this chart is nuts. I have no idea what price gdxj will be at at 2000 gold. Crazy prices if JNUG is bought.
Nice chart Matthew.
Cheers.
LPG
GDXJ priced in gold has put in what could turn out to be a double bottom. It actually made a (very) slightly lower low. It’s high today came in at “Schiff” fork resistance (blue) but closed bullishly above resistance when using the modified Schiff fork (black). One fork is often obviously more relevant than the other(s) but I don’t think that is the case here.
Notice that the blue fork captures the angle of the first half of the decline (A), while the black fork captures the angle of the second half of the decline (B).
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=GDXJ:$GOLD&p=D&yr=0&mn=7&dy=28&id=p02627854569&a=375556404
Alert! In case you have not already seen it, the Shanghai stock market just crashed 5.4% Tuesday morning. After rising early to a new top of almost 3,100, the market then crashed to close at 2,856, down 5.4%, in what technicians call an “outside day reversal”. Very, very bad. I think I just heard the preverbal bell ring for the China bubble. Please ask the five musketeers to comment on this ominous news.
Shanghai exchange rose from 2400 to 3100 in short 2 weeks because of people want to take advantage of new Shanghai and Hongkong direct exchange opportunity . Most stocks rose very little except financial and brokerage. I have some equity which only went up a few percentage. Chinese government put in some new measures to quell it yesterday so it dropped (see the link). Shanghai exchange cannot be said as bubble because while Chinese economy increase >30 times in the last twenty years and stocks barely changed. Chinese government did everything to marginalize its stock market because they hate the fact that a lot of companies used their money for re-investment or production to gamble in stock in 2007. The several harsh measures adopted in 2007 crashed the stock from 6200 to 1900. It is really very deppressed market. it is opposite of a bubble. I put some money there since 2008 and made only 20% and I was lucky to hit two good rare earth stocks. Most people lost a lot. As investor I hate it. Because there is no way to put their hugh saving, they buy real estate and gold.
With respect to Al and Do’s request for company names to cnver in their reports, what about Pretium, which was one that I failed to buy at $3-4 on the bad news a year ago, before the good news came in and took it back up over $6, as well as perhaps reasoubly established names like NewGold and McEwen Mining. These companies all have winner types as CEOs and board members, as far as I can tell.
I would also like to see Doc comment on the performance of some of the mid-tier miners and royalty companies, such as Franco-Nevada, Randgold, Agnico-Eagle
Fwiw, the first three companies you mentioned look very appealing at current levels in my opinion. NGD has to be #1 for safety over the others —especially if you’re not that bullish on the price of gold and MUX is the cheapest at .58x book value. NGD probably makes the most sense for most investors.
As for your last three, FNV wins, hands down and I don’t think I would bother with the other two. With great management, plenty of cash and no debt, FNV is a no-brainer.
My only exposure to any of the companies mentioned is through ETFs.
Id be careful and cautious with Newgold. I sold them awhile back. There having tremendous issues with there joint venture in chile. People that I know personally in the know who live down there and are in government positions have told me that the natives hold strong hand. That project may never come to fruition and it was the main reason I had bought ngd with the hope goldcorp there joint venture would buy them out.
Regardless they are a well run company with oliphant and produce at very reasonable all in sustaining cost.
I have to disagree about the perceived risks and think that NGD’s price action since the November lows supports my position. GDXJ is up 3.8% since the November low while NGD is up about 36%. I believe that the fear over the recent news in Burkina Faso is also not warranted and did not sell a single share of TGM.v as hysterical newsletter followers sold it down to 14.5 cents. It is 23 cents right now and a bargain.
Hello all,
I was about to write a post earlier before the NY open stating: “it gold goes above 1221.35, it’s “game on”. ”
We’ll see what the next few weeks have in store, but I think it’s “game on” for the PMs.
GL to all investing/trading.
LPG
Game on……………..WHERE ARE THE SHORTS……………
1225 NEEDS TO HOLD…………..this week……………
J, my shorts are doing great today (MNST, HOG, COST, JDST). 🙂
thanks Matthew……………….my long term plays are on the upside, real estate just got a boost…………..with 3% down loans in the works,,,,, anyone that is breathing will get a loan. I am glad the jobs report was so great(lol)………..
Nice one Matthew re: your JDST short (the others, I’m not familiar and haven’t looked at chart/price action).
Best,
LPG
Never argue with the PROFESSOR MATTHEW.,,,,,,,he,he,,,,,,,,,,,,,,I always enjoy his thoughts………………………………………..ootb…………….j
Haha, yeah sure, J!
And thanks!
HOG…………GOT a HARLEY DAVIDSON………..time to buy……..take a ride of your lifetime…………
I am thinking of having one of those silver plated, in case I need to get out of town.
Cmon matt now your better then that 🙂
matt disregard my message
Geez, I thought Shanghai exchange is wild, gold is trying to compete with it. What is going on?
Side note on performance, fwiw.
With all the skepticism that’s still around, I’ll note that as of today, we’re up $100 bucks from the double-reversal day on Nov 7th.
Best to all, GL investing/trading.
LPG
If this is a trend for the PMs of sorts the G/S ratio chart could finally break down for a while IMHO.
Just sold my gold rolex………and bought silverware………..he,he
Haha J, this chart has not updated today after this price move so it will appear better later. I don’t have anything like a rolex so I have to check the sofa couch for change again. (;-)
REMEMBER THIS ONE………….SO glad to see ya again……quoted the old couple , as they seated their friends on their sofa, and started bouncing them up and down ….after the invited couple left, the old couple checked to see if they had shook any change loose from their invited guest…..RETIREMENT ADVERTISEMENT……………….
That image does come to my mind when I use the couch story. I love the way they laugh when they go open pit mining for the coins.
I just troll the parking lot for copper…………..
Here it is real-time (GLD:SLV):
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=GLD:SLV&p=D&yr=1&mn=3&dy=0&id=p11551979199&a=370460853
Awesome chart as usual Matthew, thanks.
THE ISLAND TOP……………..is where I lost my rolex………..the ship sailed before I had a chance to look for it………………………………
ditto on the chart……………..
GOLD LOOKING GOOD……………………..1229
Silver is up almost exactly twice the percentage of gold.
THIS will make IRISH HAPPY……………..turn around time…………..love it……
three great articles at zerohedge………………GREEK stock mkt down 13%,,,,,Bloomberg news hires an economist for head editor,,,,,,CIA lies to congress on gitmo……………………………………………..
Hey Lawrence, CCO is going to have their CEO on BNN Commodities Report today.
Thanks
What time?
Was just on but a repeat will be on at 5:30 Calgary time. Talked about uranium spot price and his supply and demand projections and Cigar lake and such.
Gold is strong in Canadian dollar term $1385. It is all it counts for me. As for in US dollar term, I couldn’t care less if some of my stocks don’t care.