Trader Tracks Report on USA National Employment Reports

MAJOR QUESTION: EMPLOYMENT AND JOBS REPORTS FACT OR FICTION?

I am an optimist but deception in official jobs reports continues to prop hollow economies.

The Great Fictional Jobs Reporting is profoundly exaggerated again!

This genuine, honest alternate report shows USA national unemployment rate is near 23-24%

John Williams Shadowstats.com graphic shows employment reality http://www.shadowstats.com/

Traders and Investors must acknowledge reality to enjoy a happy outcome.

Last Friday’s jobs report was a panic support for a failing, stagnant economy. -Roger

Hiring Surge Shows Strength of U.S. Economy as Bears Flee –Bloomberg.net

“So much for secular stagnation. In the wake of November’s surge in employment                                                                                                                                                                               and stronger wages, even skeptics of the U.S. economic recovery are turning into optimists.”

“The 321,000 advance in payrolls followed a 243,000 increase in October that was stronger than previously reported, Labor Department figures showed yesterday. It marked the 10th straight month that employment has increased by at least 200,000, the longest stretch since the 19 months that ended in March 1995. The jobless rate held at a six-year low of +5.8%, and earnings rose by the most since June of last year.

“Overall wages are on the rise, and that’s some very welcome news for millions of hardworking Americans,” Obama said. “…Yet, though corporate profits and the stock market have hit all-time highs, the typical family isn’t bringing home more than they did 15 years ago. And, that still has to change. And, a vibrant jobs market gives us the opportunity to keep up this progress and begin to undo that decades-long middle-class squeeze.”

From factories to offices and retailers, employers took on more staff last month, giving American consumers the bump in pay needed to drive holiday spending. Economists including former U.S. Treasury official Brad DeLong, Nobel Prize winner Paul Krugman, and Stephen Stanley ofAmherst Pierpont Securities say the hiring surge shows the outlook has finally improved. It was “the first good monthly report of the recovery,” DeLong wrote yesterday on his blog and in a Twitter post. That’s because it’s the first since before the recession in which payroll growth exceeded 300,000 with unemployment below 6%, he said.

The breadth of industries hiring last month was the broadest since 1998, a sign the benefits of the expansion were rippling through the economy. Factory payrolls rose by the most in a year, professional and business services companies took on more employees than at any time since November 2010, financial firms boosted payrolls by the most since early 2012 and hiring at retailers picked up. Roger: We carefully note the former reported monthly stats are often restated more positively, as they are a trick to enhance unreality. Most folks take these ideas at face value as phony reports continue to build the fiction.

Treasury yields rose as traders bet the improvement in the labor market will help reassure Federal Reserve policy makers that the economy is strong enough to withstand an increase in borrowing costs next year. The yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note climbed to 2.31% in New York late yesterday from 2.24% the prior day. The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index, which tracks the greenback against 10 trading partners, gained 0.9%, and the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index advanced 0.2% to close at a record 2,075.37. Roger: The FOMC is terrified to raise interest rates. If they do it will be an economic conflagration.

The November gain in U.S. payrolls was the biggest since January 2012, and exceeded the median forecast in a Bloomberg survey of 100 economists, which called for a 230,000 increase. Estimates ranged from increases of 140,000 to 306,000. Revisions added 44,000 jobs to payrolls in the previous two months. (Roger: See remarks above). To calculate the data, the Labor Department surveys businesses and households for either the pay period or week that includes the 12th of the month.

“The underlying strength is definitely there and that’s evidenced by the fact that the September and October numbers were also revised up,” said Nariman Behravesh, chief economist for IHS Inc. in Lexington, Massachusetts, and the second-best forecaster of payroll gains over the last two years, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. “We have a very strong labor market.” Roger: The preponderance of new real jobs is in governments. These are paid for by consumer taxes and in my view cannot be considered economic enhancement but rather initiate a further drag on all economies.

The term secular stagnation, coined by economist Alvin Hansen during the Great Depression, refers to an extended period of little or no economic growth. It has recently been revived by former Treasury Secretary Lawrence Summers and others to describe the state of the economy after the last recession. Summers stuck with his warning that the economy could be mired in an era of low growth. “When I put forward secular stagnation, it wasn’t to say that we were permanently doomed never to have a good month,” Summers, now a professor at Harvard University in Cambridge, Massachusetts, said in a brief telephone interview yesterday. “The economy certainly does not appear to be stagnant at the moment,” he said, although “whether growth can be sustained at rapid rates at normal type interest rates conducive to financial stability is certainly not yet fully established.” DeLong, of the University of California and Summers called for more government spending to bolster recovery.

Krugman, a Princeton University economist, wrote yesterday in his New York Times blog that this was “a genuinely good employment report.” At the same time, he said there is a risk that the Fed tightens policy too soon. Fed policy makers are monitoring labor market improvement as they consider when to raise borrowing costs for the first time since 2006. The next meeting of the Fed’s Open Market Committee is December 16-17, and a majority of policy makers forecast they will start raising interest rates at some point next year. Krugman warned in mid-October that policy makers face the risk of a renewed downturn, similar to one that occurred in 1937 following the Great Depression…

“You are finally seeing a recovery dynamic that is maybe five years late,” said Stanley, who says he was expecting monthly job gains of around 200,000 this year. “Now it feels like a natural recovery. The trend may well be 250,000 now, which is a step up.” The Labor Department’s report showed hourly earnings of all workers rose+ 0.4% on average to $24.66 in November from $24.57 in the previous month. They were up +2.1% over the past 12 months. Steady progress in the job market, along with falling gasoline prices, has brightened consumers’ spirits. With fuel prices at a four-year low and still dropping, Americans are flocking to auto dealerships. Roger: Discounted fuel costs are a stronger economic boost, especially for low incomes.

“By any measure, households are reaping significant disposable income gains each week at current gas prices,” Emily Kolinski Morris, chief economist at Ford Motor Co., said on a December 2 conference call. “Importantly, younger and lower-income households are now seeing improved personal financial condition in part due to lower energy prices.” -Victoria Stilwell in Washington & Steve Matthews Atlanta 12-6-14 Bloomberg.net

If the American Economy is improving so quickly, why are there 50,000,000 on food stamps? -Roger

The big investment banks have been laying-off thousands in several divisions as they have lost so much business. Downsizing continues as corporations hoard cash expecting years of malaise. With three out of four potential workers still employed, the mask of deception backed by media nonsense to further personal agendas, keeps reality under the covers.

One fresh report this past weekend suggests the broader stock market could be in the basement after a crash for the next ten years. I am not so sure on this forecast. It could happen depending upon the severity of the selling during a major exit event. A crash is coming but it is difficult to measure with a certainty, so how bad is bad? Considering market manipulation and media control, one of our best fellow analysts posed the question to me…we might see the current static situation for the next 30 years!  While that one is hard to swallow, I have learned anything is possible. More likely from my view, we move into a war atmosphere, the employment markets do improve on newly hired military and defense contractor support, but then the aftermath could in fact be a renewal or rebirth of global economies just like the USA roaring twenties. We can predict a more, intermediate cycle, control trading and investing by using technical and fundamental data through that time period. We are very close to a “make or break time” right now. I think the next six months will be exciting and intriguing. -Roger

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