Tuesday Morning Special with Rick, Gary and Chris
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Critical $US levels are 88.08 then 87.59,
if broken, more good upside for PMs.
The gap between 94-95 will be filled at
some point, probably sooner than later.
(Gold & $US advance together???)
FWIW
Capital Market Deflation = Consumer Market Inflation
Whether capital is not made avaialble, or not wanted,
decreasing productivity increases shortages (prices).
FWIW
I disagree. Decreasing productivity is the result of falling demand. Shortages and an increasing general price level are the result of government intervention (stupidity).
Starvation is not due to lack of demand.
Sorry, but “Capital Market Deflation = Consumer Market Inflation” can only be true due to government intervention.
Economic demand is not measured by what people desire. The market, free of intervention, is the best way to ration goods and services. People starve when politicians play god.
Bankers are in control and pay
for whatever a politician may play.
The politicians (and the people) have to go along with it to make their control possible.
Really, those who govern you are your government, so I include the banksters (never mind that the FED is private) when I talk about the government. Their control is nothing new.
I have to agree, but I think you have taken the situation a bit out of context!
I have to agree with Matthew, BDC
I listen to all and respect your views. My feelings follow Al’s and the days are drawing
ever closer to the day the CAN will not be kicked down the road. More and more people will realize that a world cannot function economically, physically, or socially
under the cabals(banksters and central planners) attempts to control thru lies and manipulation.
It seems pretty obvious to me LGC.
Gary, you are quite confusing… they arent beating gold down today.. the mining stocks have been in a decline for weeks.. what do you mean ‘arent making new highs..’ HELLO..
the miners are doing fine today….
Sally relatively to the price action in gold/silver the miners have not made higher highs at these levels. Basically miners should be much higher at these prices. That’s a concern to me.
Glen,
You mean at specifically today’s price? I really don’t agree that miners should be at higher prices right now given the metals prices of the past months.
Where am I wrong?
Al,
miners were higher in the 1st of december and gold/silver prices where lower. That is a sign to me. gdx/gdxj are still at prices were they were when gold was under 1200 and silver under 17. Those are clues to me. Im not perfect but it’s what I look at.
Glen, you and Gary are right about the miners lagging, but I believe that situation is coming to an end as we type.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=GDXJ:$GOLD&p=W&yr=4&mn=11&dy=22&id=p98791954267&a=375553409
The miners have managed to outperform gold today despite its own great performance.
The miners priced in gold have taken back a key support/resistance level (for now, at least).
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$GDM:GLD&p=M&yr=11&mn=0&dy=0&id=p86099757729&a=379834170
To add to Glenfidish’s comment, volume of many names I’m monitoring (owned or not) is not exactly high/elevated…in other words, it’s a decent up day for many miners, but overall no euphoria in the up moves in price nor in volumes.
Scepticism still seems to prevail a little.
Best to all,
LPG
LPG well said. Volume is what i was looking at today. Not impressive by any means.
Matt,
thx I guess time will tell.
Misunderstood, sorry Glen!
GLEN is right Al.Technicals still look bearish for miners.Golden cross on bear miners etfs.IMHO silver is gonna reach the low 18s and gold 1264 and down they go again.
al technicians call this a throwback and it is when price retrace towards the long term support line of the barrier triangle.That of gold was 1181 and that of silver was range bound between 18.2 and 18.66.Trend is still bearish and trend is your friend.
I started to educate myself about technicals, but I am not close to where you guys are just quite yet!
Sally,
No the miners are drastically underperforming gold. That has been a warning sign in the past, and was a big warning sign back in early Oct.
Unless the miners get in gear soon I’m going to assume that gold will be capped at 1280 and back down it will go.
I think Chris and Gary are right. The drop in China is just a convenient excuses for people to explain the stock setback today. China stocks has been rising fast till yesterday and DOW is totally unaffected.
China’s problem is that there is Hugh surplus of savings and people look for any opportunity to put their money some where because people know paper money is going to 0. Government relaxed foreign investment and allowed hong kong and shanghai to trade directly. So people started to get excited again. Just like expected , government imposes measures to crash the market to prevent a bubble. I feel Chinese government is very hostile to speculation. So I only invest in real good producing companies there with a very small portfolio.
To those who doubted y USD thesis, today proves it.
USD drops gold rockets… give or take 10% it is all USD. The world revolved the USD not gold and oil..
View the world through USD terms and it all is clear
You might be right to some extent. But gold has risen a lot in canadian $ and yen too. If it is all because of dollar, gold should be flat in Canadian dollar and yen, which is not the case.
Do you follow the canadian dollar? Go look at a chart going back to 2011 top in gold. I look at everything. I don’t disagree that dollar has influence as well. This is a currency war going on.
Not so fast.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$USD&p=M&st=2001-09-06&en=today&id=p67779988766&a=366601998
View the dollar in your pocket in GOLD terms and all is clear.
I guess that is one way to look at it.
Can we get to something simple, like politics!
weekly golden cross developing on the weekly U.S. dollar. dollar is forming a cycle low on the daily to be completed sometime next week. Dollar strength looks to continue then.
Wouldn’t surprise me to see oil in the $50s by February.
tenyear,
This is exactly my thoughts but when we get to the 35/40 wti I have been calling for since the mammoth days, then you all including matt can buy me an opus red wine 🙂
I’d be surprised if the Fed would let that much deflation take place! But on the right capitulation day it is very possible. Gas back in the the $1 range! Cover the shorts and travel the world by boat and car for the next 20 years of Japanese style living in the U.S. Seems all too possible.
Tenyear,
I think the FED would love to see this happen as they then won’t have to raise rates (they’ll have a great argument for not raising rates).
That would also give a convenient excuse to those who KNOW the USD is just slowly slowly slowly ending its reign. Some powerful people in Washington will say:
“a strong USD is bringing deflation blablabla… we cannot continue to have it as the reserve currency of the world. It is hurting us”.
By saying this, you make the “public” finally believing/accepting that a weaker dollar is good for their country, which is a way to avoid them realize that the demise of the currency was a slow but inevitable process anyway. But instead of the public realizing this one day, you make them embrace this view and let it happen.
My 2cts.
LPG
Bingo!
Yep, they manufacture consent endlessly.
Agree for the most part…Its just not the Fed though, especially when it comes to oil. Have yet to see argument as thorough as this which is why I’ve been in this camp and not the inflationary camp.
Worth at least a nickel, LPG!
You do certainly know your wines, Glen (By the way, you might want to capitalize Opus! It certainly deserves it!)
long term forecast may be based on a min to min basis so if its going down one min long term forecast becomes bearish. However if in 3 mins if it spikes higher may become a long term bull again but may have a hedge due to it going down the previous min.
Is it OK to say that I don’t have a clue what is going on?
You’re in good company with Al then.
+1.. count me in… I personally only buckle up and put my head in the sand.. at the moment..
Did you find any gold coins in a hidden box in the sand Genesys ?
🙂
Best,
LPG
😀 my hands are still free. I grab some when I find them!
Okay Doc, I will never be polite to you on the golf course again!
It’s called climbing the wall of worry. If anyone thinks a bell will be rung when the miners begin a new bull market, good luck. It may have already started, but we will only know past tense.
That’s right, and the longer the disbelief holds up, the better it is for the health of the bull.
+1 Kent.
I would have to completely agree kent h!
Incredible how they can freeze the price at a specific spot to play mind games with you. Looks like they will keep her here till close. I’ve noticed there not letting anyone in and they are trying to catch you chasing. Im referring to metals/miners.
Agreed Glenfidish.
That’s why I think that it is PARAMOUNT to buy on pullbacks. That’s the best way to maximize risk/reward.
I know I’m stating the obvious, but that truly helps finding good sleep.
Best to all,
LPG
LPG,
Very much agree. It always good to remind us all from time to time. The most difficult thing to have for myself is patience. Im constantly having to battle with it. In other words trigger happy at the wrong time. What you say hits the meaning of risk/reward.
glta
Right now you can get 60bps more for duration on a 5YR to 10YR and another 60bps going from 10YR to 30YR. Is this worth the interest rate risk for 25 years?
The FED will FOLLOW interest rates determined by the market.
Caution is warranted for long bond portfolios. A rapid re-pricing event would take 10YRs to 3.5% – 3.75% very quickly.
On gold, I am surprised everybody is commenting on gold and gold mining stocks on an intra-day basis. The damage done to the sector was immense. If we did see the bottom, which is my premise, they will need technical repair in here. Everything to me looks fine. Major divergence is not going to show up immediately. This is a process, not a daily event. We should see some nice up moves followed by down moves. Unless new lows begin to be made, I am bullish.
Best to all, keep up the good conversation!
One quick one from me on volumes….especially for the ETFs….
One thing that REALLY annoys me are these huge volumes after the close these days.
For ex., today, I look at GDX/GDXJ volumes and I’m thinking: “not impressive” – in line with what I see with many of the stocks I monitor, most of which are based in Canada…
Then Peter highlights to us (cf Richard’s separate podcast page for today) these huge trades on GDX(J) after hours… And then, the whole picture/view/opinion of “not impressive” changes…
I really believe these huges trades are NOT DONE after hours BUT JUST REPORTED after-hours… and I am very very very inclined to think that they are reported after-hours for good reasons…. I really think some market makers are playing… it’s almost like they wanna show that the up days are insignificant (price up but volumes not massive) but then come after-hours it’s “surprise surprise…”.
I don’t know, maybe I’m paranoiac on this one, but I think there might be more into the price action than what we see during the sessions these days.
GL to all investing/trading
LPG
You bring up good points. You add to the fact that these “entities” are doing it after hours when regular joe can’t trade is concerning. Tis why I believe try getting in at a low of which you speak and don’t lose your position. I have entered a trade and not closes two days in a row. I believe there running it up and very soon back down.
I meant to despite the lack of direction at the close for gold these last to days, I have or at least believe I have called there bluff. They don’t want you in on these type of closes for a reason. You gotta have big ones to not close out the trade.
The biggest problem with lowering interest rates is it is done to stimulate American business but it also stimulates the stock market. The problem here is you are giving White House sponsorship to inflation but if you don’t think that inflation isn’t in the minds of the business community you are travelling down the wrong road.
Good for debtors, Machine Gun!
AH…DT…Just the man I was looking for. Would you please answer the two questions I left for you under the remarks you made about me on Sunday. Thank You.
I want to bring this point out because I feel it is important, many people on this site including some of the moderators believe a way will be found to keep the system afloat, how do these people think that this huge debt built by our governments will ever get paid and I challenge anyone to refute my beliefs.
It can’t ever be paid, Machine Gun.
But, the rules of the game can certainly be changed!
The consensus is that government will inflate it away. But I doubt they can keep system from tipping over since debt is increasing regarding to GDP so Japan scenario is more like a terminal. Default or hyper inflation. Choose a poison.
it is called DEFAULT……
Here are Raymond James’ top stock picks for 2015
Thanks Irwin,
I just looked at it and can’t say that I agree with all of them.
Well Irwin, I would say he is right about the mining companies, as long as gold continues up of course, the other companies I have no idea about, and I am done doing due diligence.
There are more opportunities in mining right now, Im pretty certain they outnumber the size of most peoples accounts.
5x,10x+ are so abundant why bother with researching even more companies than you have cash for?
These last 3 years have been tuff, but I would hope PM investers used the time to find the companies that are “no brainers”.
As gold moves up I think it will become obvious to all that technicals or fundimentals wont matter much, other than buying a diamond mine in Iraq.(bad technicaly and fundimentaly)
If a guy does stuff like that he deserves to lose.
bb:
If you’re saying that PMs are the only sector worth investing in, then I strongly disagree.
My absolute maximum allocation to PMs, stocks, etf’s and bullion is 25%. Any profits I might be able to skim from PM stocks over the coming months, will likely go into something oily. (see Stewart Thomson Dec 9)
I haven’t researched anything on the Raymond James list – I just linked that for general interest. It might be interesting though to check the list again in 12 months.
of course not Irwin.
Is the surge in volume at market closing in GDX/J not the leveraged ETFs (Dust/Jnug/nugt) settling?
I wonder what the daily volume on this site will be when gold gets crushed along with many commodities next year ?
HaHa…Good one.
There’s a surge in daily volume at my end every time I click on this site while listening to some lilting music, and Big Al comes in growling “for lack of better terms”. That’s just plain RUDE. Requests to cut the auto-play-on-open mostly fall on deaf ears.
some lilting from the red-tie-red-sneaker guy and a cute blonde:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zHPCRybkR0U&list=UUI3XOx7AS4fKGmu4zCaWgFA
Now Richard Russell, the Godfather of newsletter writing is NOW reccommending a small venture into the stock market….spy…specifically. First time he has in a LONG LONG time…he thinks a real speculative phase through 2016. Well I really like this guy very very centered and at a ripe old age of 90. Hey, I dont know…I really dont….I mean I am playing it how I see it…good or bad….we will certainly see – wont we!