It’s all good Peter.
Thank you for your input and for spotting the large trades in the ETFs after hours. Useful.
Best to you,
LPG

Great women down there!

You also have the summer Olympics coming up. First time ever that golf will be an event.

After listening to the first part of Willie’s interview (that is all I could stand to hear) I found it was typical of Jim Willie. Full of conspiracy theories such as the U.S. having earthquake and hurricane weapons ect…Sorry, nothing much of value to me.

and thanks for the post………and your contribution………………..j….

I would have to assume that would put you into the category of a typical FSU fan!

Just kidding!

They will NEVER beat the Mariners!

Yes, I agree with that. I must have had ruffled feathers over my grains theory getting rejected by so many others. We will get past it. Actually, you know since last year I have become much more inclined to just stick with technicals anyway. Fundamental analysis has let me down time and again and the supply/demand for wheat and corn is just one of those examples.

Another was when Russia invaded the Crimea followed by incursions into greater Ukraine, the downing of the Malaysian Airways flight and then all the anxiety that followed over European gas delivery and pipelines.

At one point it was almost consensus that much of the commodity sector would be under pressure based on a potential shock of real conflict breaking out and disruptions in supply materializing. Even the precious metals were seen as excellent beneficiaries, especially gold and platinum.

Instead, oil prices crashed back to earth, natural gas deflated and gold and silver went limp. And just to confuse everyone even more, the things that were in oversupply (grains) were rising sharply! No wonder people feel the marketplace is baffling.

Anyway, I got much better signals from the technical setups during that time than I ever did from reviews of historical market behavior, the current news or the fundamentals of business as we have all been taught so long ago.

Honestly, so much of the news was just a smokescreen covering up more important events anyway. That 24/7 coverage of the lost Malaysian airliner is just one example. Another huge story that has been blown totally out of proportion was the Ebola scare.

Hardly a peep on the news about that anymore. I will have to admit as well that particular story really had me worried for awhile. Maybe because it was too close to home. But nobody even talks about it over here anymore and Ebola fears have faded into near irrelevance where I live.

It was such a big media smokescreen though that we can only marvel at what it was a cover for. We do know though that when a single story can rise to prominence like that and it pushes all other stories off the front pages that somehow we have been shortchanged.

I only wish I knew what it was that was being blocked out by all the smoke. If anybody has a good idea I would love to hear it. Anyway, I was bugged about corn, especially since it turned out to be a great trade and the technicals had been screaming “buy…buy…buy” and yet so many were down on the trade because of the US Ag reports that bumper crops were impending.

Not just you Chris, it was everyone. I learned something from that. We have to trust our own instincts, Crude meanwhile is setting up for some of the most beauty trades I have seen in a long while. It has seen almost as much damage in 90 days as gold suffered in three years.

I mean, we went from a period of shortage fears to acknowledgement of surplus in just weeks and months and have almost arrived at the blood in the streets moment in that very short time frame (it is fantastic!).

Since I know you follow the sector pretty closely I will naturally be tuning in to hear your thoughts on what might be the better ways to play the eventual bounce back. I am going to favour technicals this time more than fundamentals though.

And if I read peace is breaking out in Ukraine I might start buying with both hands!!!

And it feels great to be back again. I really missed this site. Just had another two days of internet blackout though. They are really suffering growing pains here lately.

We can go weeks without broadband and there is little offered as an explanation for why. My water was also cut off for two weeks as well as the new pumps were being installed, then the ATM’s were offline followed by the usual daily power outages.

But life continues. In the background there is a land rush and investment boom going on. A more aggressive kind of investor group seems to have arrived and they are hardly put off by all the inconveniences.

On the contrary, the regular disruptions of so many services come as the smell of opportunity to these guys. Until very recently there were excellent property development opportunities being handed out to anyone who asked. A few years back good farm lands were literally free for Gods sakes. Then cheap leases arrived. Suddenly we have gone to open bidding and prices just rocketed upwards.

While 99% of the rest of the business community is keeping its distance and waiting for more economic development to make life tolerable, this current crop has been busy snapping the best lands at key intersections and on the major highways. Like prime site next to the rail stations that are being constructed as one example and open lands near the intersections of the new railways and highways.

It is already nearly impossible to find resort development properties adjacent to lakes or to find reasonable rents and leases in the heart of the capital. That was already last years story.

What was dirt cheap and easy to acquire during the times of power and telecom shortages has become dear in anticipation of the roll out of major power projects and the nation wide implementation of broadband.

By the time life becomes tolerable enough for most business people in this part of East Africa the majority of investors will have already missed the boat. That is how it looks to me from the front lines anyway. A couple years back any goofball could have come here with a hair brained idea and a modest cash account and picked up a hundred hectares just for the asking.

These days they are asking tougher questions though. Now they are imposing more regulations and investors need to be qualified or prove they have a history before their proposal gets a hearing.

The easy pickings are gone.