A bit lengthy but certainly valuable.
Click download link to listen on this device: Download Show
We decided to record a conversation with Gary that normally would have been “off mike”. We like the way this turned out. What do you think?
Agree, except oil. Hope Gary work on oil a bit more so we all benefit.
Thanks.
This was a great interview from all involved. I liked the longer more conversational format AL & Cory. Gary, you really helped clear up a few areas of the cycle theory I was debating in my mind on this interview. Yes Cory, I did like the range of topics covered on this one from markets, to currencies, to Gold/Silver, to oil.
Big ups!
I definitely underestimated how far oil would drop. I thought the government would back stop the energy markets right after the elections but they have not done that.
Lawrence you should have listened to the 4th muskateer on wti oil..
Been calling 35/40 wti oil since i was born 🙂
We will bounce to 70 and back down to my targets in feb/march
Glen, pretty much Larry Edelson’s targets also!! Cheers.
Thanks Ann did not know that.
Half of the talking heads on Wallstreet are now talking 40 dollar oil. This difference is glenfidish was saying it before it was cool talking point on financial programs.
Good call Glenfidish. I am more of a Glenlivet fan, but I tip my hat to you sir!! I also tip my hat to fine scotch : – )
This price will wipe out my province – Alberta. It is meaningless for me regardless what I do. It is an absolute best thing happening to my old country though. I may have to immigrate back to China. I am sure with this price, China can beat US handilly in the next few years.
With the grow of Yuan supply and value 50-100 times compared to 30 years ago. It is like buying under 1 dollar a barrel 30 years ago. Just heard a news from a fertilizer company in China. They finally be able to produce fertilizer under the US price so they can compete with imported fertilizer due to the advantage of transportation. The price of natural gas and oil is a lot higher and now it is dipping. Chinese trade surplus broke record last month due to less import and more export. High oil price has been one policy which US uses to deter China. I am not convinced that US will give up that policy.
I think many companies will be doing major turn-a-rounds. Why not dig up those old leaking pipes during an extended shut down. My wife is in the safety business and they are expecting a very busy year. Other things do happen in Alberta too. (;-)
Dan, turn around usually takes a month or two. I think Glen was talking about sustained low price 35/40, which I was refering to, not the current 60ish. I am sure at least Alberta companies will shut in a lot of wells. I know how we operate. With all the EOR technologies we use, we cannot produce oil cheap.
Were you around in early 80s? Alberta got hit hard and housing price dropped by 40%. We tried to diversify but all of other industries were overshadowed by oil/gas. Simi-government enterprise like Novatel failed miserabally. I tried really hard to stay away from oil/gas but I realized that I was sacrifying my salary and finally gave in. I think we have oil/gas and oil gas services (like your wifes) and the rest like coal, which is really in trouble. I have heard several of my friends lost their job recently. It is unheard of for the last 10-15 years.
I sympathise with your friends and yes, I was in the oilfield in the early 80s but I worked in the Turner Valley Gas Plant and had a great 6 year run. I quit in 1985 and reality came crashing in when I had to leave the oilfield altogether. Demand is much higher now and I think demand will pull us out of this mess IMHO. I think that the companies are reducing production at a rapid pace and will compensate for the over-production of the shale stuff.
Dan, I am with you. I think this crash will be over in a few months. We will be back to the 90$ /bbl. There are many factors to drive oil up. Some are fundamental and some are political. At least with my own house, rental properties and my good job, I hope so.
I don’t have a lot of energy shares except my company’s shares, but I am dipping my toe in now. I bought Encana, Canadian natural resource, Husky and Conoco Phillips USA.
After TLS I am looking at ECA, TGL in energy and SVL, CRJ in PMs. Still looking for a gold stock to watch. Trying to raise as much capital as possible.
Hey guys has gary talked about what type of retracement he is looking at if the 1275/1280 is hit? Keeping in mind the bottom is in. If he believes the bottom is not in then i would expect the decline to be much larger.
I would hope someone can ask him this question?
Thanks in advance
What do you guys mean when you say, “The Fed has got your back?”” Are you suggesting that the Fed is printing money and buying stocks with it? Or are the market makers being paid off to keep prices high with lack of demand? If you could elaborate on this that would be great because to my knowledge the Fed has nothing to do with the stock market. I thought the money printed went to banks and the banks then had the option of putting it in the market, loaning it, or whatever.
Gary, what do you think about that BIG volumes trade on GDX and GDXJ after market? They almost happens at the same time…
Peter if i may IMHO those after market big volume trades are cumulative settlements that happened individually during market hours but broker have settled (made a booking entry) after hours.
Peter,
It’s meaningless.
Peter Peter the voulme specialist 🙂
Gary IMHO gold will be capped at 1240 if it’s not capped already. Miners are telling us that and they are slowly blooding down now for last 2 weeks. Once it’s capped we will make lower low to 1050 on gold and that will be final bottom for gold.
I’m with Jordan B and Avi G on this one now. I switched as miners shitted onto themselves on Nov and i’m gonna wait for them to shit on themselves again.
Could Gold & Silver Already Have Bottomed? – Avi article
http://news.goldseek.com/GoldSeek/1418158920.php
“And, clearly, the GLD did not have the similar drop, and the gold futures did not have anywhere near the same decline as silver. Furthermore, the miners do not look like they have completed their bottoming process either.
Moreover, the spike down, which occurred on a Sunday night, may have stopped out many futures longs, but it caused no pain to the cash market. I find it hard to believe that a final low would not take out more long positions in the cash market – which is where most of the weak hands reside – before reversing into the bull market phase. Furthermore, we have seen these types of spikes down in the futures in other markets, which have only been later confirmed by the cash markets dropping to the same levels at later times. So, I do remain skeptical of this past Sunday night’s move being the final 5th wave down in metals.”
Gold has to go through 1240 and break the intermediate trend line. That trend line has to break in order to draw in the technical buyers. Without them the institutions don’t have anybody to hand the bag to.
Cat bounce in wti coming..70 /72 and back down.
Gary,
Hey guys, great interviews, you want to hear what everyone has to say, well here it goes.
I can’t help but wonder if this vicious rally from October was a last chance effort for funds to capture beginning of the 2014 year prices to finish the year. I just can’t determine whether this is the daily cycle low or not. I have a feeling that the market will rise into the FEDs meeting, SPX ~2100 and a sell the news event that follows, which will be a major profit taking event for the year. Let’s see the close today if the gains can hold.
GDX: This should set up a new range for a while creating a lot of uncertainty. The only factor that I am working with right now is the prior low of 16.54. I am working on the premise that this will HOLD. I am not concerned with the noise in between. The miners could rocket higher or stagnate in here. And of course, they could go to new lows. I would say that if the GDX cannot capture 20.42 by Friday, we would be looking to go back to 17 area. But like you said, it will probably be run up to the 21/22 area prior to a sell-down toward the 17 area to trap late comers to the party. Without forming new lows, this would be bullish.
Best regards,
Richard
Doc,
It’s too late in the daily cycle for the stock market to go back down. If it’s forming a bottom here, and it looks like it is, then we have another 25-35 days before the next top. This will be the opportunity to hit Nasdaq 5100.
Perfect timing then Gary. That will put pressure on gold and mining stocks and will produce 1050 gold at 5100 Naz level. That will bring very top in Naz and very bottom in gold. Any time frame on that move Gary?. Gary thank you in advance.
stewie,
dont bet against gold just yet.. Short to fast and you will get hurt. Caution here. Upside targets 1244/1250 first stop then 1266/1275 second.
I have half position. Other half got sold day monday after hours when miners did not explode. I’m may not even hedge. I will just wait for final bottom with my 1/2 position and load up on 3x funds then. :)))
Good luck to you stewie..
Thank you for the great interview. There is a lot of valuable information given and I will listen a few times more!
Gary sorry i got the answer about the retracement. Thanks a bunch. New lows wowsers. As you said miners better move.
Is this an oversold buy at this time? Encana
Dan,
Took a quick look and I’d say im all in between 8-10..Give it another week if it hits 9/10 scale in. All time monthly lowes sit close to 8ish.. Massive head and shoulders formation dating back many many years. Id gotta say it wants to hit that 8 if not 7 and it will be a mother rally.
Not investment advice just how glen views charts.
Thanks glen, I have a habit of jumping in too soon and not holding on to cash. TLS is still on the table.
Dan I think Encana is a long term hold. Its share was depressed due to its all gas exposure and Cenovus took the good oil property. These days it starts to diversify to oil and liquids as well and they haven’t made any mistake like Cenovus did.Gas might be good bet now since it is used for heating and oil sand extraction. Some liquids like propane has a premium in Alberta. I think it is a safer bet. I bought it a few days ago at 15.02 and will add more later. If one day we get the Northern gate pipeline built, this company will fly. Its dividend is decent.
I was waiting for years to buy this stock.
Thanks Lawrence, that is my take on ECA also. May as well dip the toe in just to say I own some and accumulate on dips to Christmas.
Gary, check out the contango forming so quickly on the oil. Amazing.
Doc How much is it?
Contango also happened in 2008. This is a sympton of temporary supply glut and lack of long term supply. So buying oil ETF is bad now. Better to buy solid oil gas companies.
Didn’t you gary that ICL can last 12 weeks? We are only in 6 weeks so why panic? Just a question.
Great Interview one of the best I have heard. Thanks Gary and al/cory! What a great job.
The gold-silver ratio will show you the way.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=GLD:SLV&p=D&yr=1&mn=3&dy=0&id=p78503307268&a=370460853
Matt can you put a number on gold/silver when it hits that line?
Thanks for these charts.
Take with a grain of salt, but 1260 & 18.60 seem reasonable. Here’s another look:
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$GOLD:$SILVER&p=D&yr=1&mn=5&dy=0&id=p23209211256&a=380143640
Thanks
Here’s a situation that could result in some short term pressure on gold:
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$GOLD:$WTIC&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&id=p27687191588&a=378337402
A CDNX stock that has no reason to sell-off for TLS. Pine Cliff Energy
I really don’t undrstand why all people say that the miners are totally lagging.
When I look at Iamgold, Lake Shore Gold, Newmont Mining, Fresnillo, Stillwater Mining, Pan American Silver, Fortuna Silver, Hecla Mining, Barrick Gold, Franco Nevada, Silvercrest, Oceana Gold , B2 Gold, Claude Resources, Avino Silver & Gold…and that are the first that come to my mind…I see them all up from their recent lows, in some cases significantly. Unfortunately one that I am in, Endeavor Silver, is going even lower from last Friday. Should have bought Stillwater, too bad. Well, what I think is that it really has to do with tax loss selling season and that sentiment is just so bad in individual cases that some miners get to irrationally low levels. What someone here on the forum also says is that in some companies’ stocks the bottoming process is not really over. Frankly, too me it looks a bit like last year around this time. Also there is a lot of crash-talk going on in the financial community. In my opinion this also contributes a lot to it. Also You have to mention that at current gold and silver prices most companies still operate at a loss, and as long as for the institutions the light at the end of the tunnel is so far away they might rather buy other stuff, like retailers do as well. Gary already mentioned it; they might all think that the conventional stock market is just a bit safer in the near term. Finally…not all cycles are the same. Thanks for all the free information to… Al, Cory, the Musketeers and his guests.
Good interview, I liked it. Should be an interesting year end for the markets.
GDX will not hit 22 next week unless fed announces more qe, and the Fed meeting next week I think precludes 22 gdx before the meeting.
move along-there is no manipulation of the markets.
gary might be right about 1280 and the suckering aspect –however, I look back at 2008 thru 2010 and see consistent move up in miners.
picking when that happens is rather important
I don’t think oil is near a bottom, Gary can wish it but it isn’t happening.
Gary, I must admit, your recent calls have been spot on.
In fact, I dare to say, you have been the most accurate of all
the analysts on kereport. Thank you for sharing your thoughts
on a daily basis.