A very up and down day for everything – what does it mean
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You wond to understan lissen HIM ! Dr Zbigniew Brzezinski ! https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iAV7gQYyPbo
Hey Doc, do you have any opinion on Moly Corp? 66 cents. Who would have thunk it
Don; I’ve been watching that stock. One of their problems is their huge amount of debt. I’ve also been following AVL and buying some down at these levels—-not investment advice. It’s pretty speculative and you’ll have to wait a long time for any significant progress in the rare earth area.
yes, Im interested on Docs newsletter as well.
Unless I missed it your the first person to mention these things here Doc, I mentioned it a few days ago too but nobody noticed.
That outlook has been discussed a lot on other sites, the Saudis are not happy with the U.S. and are moving closer to the east a well s Turkey and others. Putin has come out and said they can survive low oil prices.
Nations have gotten tired of the U.S. wars and they see full well the U.S. takes the world to the brink of anialation in Ukraine.
Did western media even show the handshake between the kiev forces and the eastern Ukraine forces? I don’t think so.
The Saudis are also doing business with Russia, these low oil prices might have more meaning than hurting Russia, shouldn’t be long and we could see western oil companies going broke, I know in Alberta layoffs have already started.
Who are these low prices really going to affect?
Yes, you are accurate on Alberta.
One has to remember that in the oil/gas industry, the salaries and wages are usually higher comparable to a lot of other industries. In other words, higher wage employment is again taking a back seat. That’ll impact demand somewhat.
I saw a big number of GLD sell orders in place on 38,2% and 50% fibonacci retracements, and someone is triggering then. Gold has to go up tomorow to maintain the bullish trend.
We’re in the capitulation selloff phase now – the last leg down. I’m with Sally – 1130 minimum, 1050 possible. Thank heavens for hedges!!!!
Aida and thank god for averaging down 🙂
Bottom will be in tomorrow or end of week
1150 I believe matt called that.
Glen,
I am in Avi’s trading room daily (EW) with. These guys have called it pretty accurately on the miners so far. We all hedged our long miner positions 2 weeks ago with gdx puts and JDST. They were up today, 65% for the puts, 24% jdst. This sell-off will not end tomorrow, it is just starting. It is the final wave down – and until there is total fear in the air, there will be no capitulation. In the miners, wave 3 down of the larger 5 may end tomorrow or the next day, then a bounce, then the final washout leg. It is still not too late to hedge, I would not be buying yet – only during the final leg (5 down of 5) is it time to start dipping in. This will not be pretty.
Peter,
GDXJ is at least at a 52 week low as a type this message… To make it closer from us, it is making a lower low than early November.
Where are the from “weak hands to strong hands” from a few days ago that you mentioned ??? 🙂 🙂 🙂
Just teasing…. 🙂
Matthew, any light ??? – Teasing again 🙂 🙂 🙂
Best to you, and GL trading/investing.
LPG
LPG,
Nothing more then the final drop. The turn will be V shaped guaranteed.
Hello Glenfidish,
Hope all’s well on your side.
I think by now you understand a little bit my mindset… and I don’t think I use the word “guaranteed” much 😉 😉 😉 It’s just that I don’t trust the market, and especially investors much smarter than me…
So I just try to have a plan, execute these plans, and have plans when these plans don’t go according to my expectations – most of the time, they don’t :-).
But I have to admit I reaaalllllly like these falling prices on SOME of these stocks. I have a few orders ready…
I’m just saying to these stocks when I was saying yesterday to my kitten when I picked her
up from the vet: “come to daddy – come oooon ” 🙂 🙂 🙂
Best to you, and GL trading/investing.
LPG
“Come to daddy – come oooon”
I like your plan and it really is no secret recipe as a smart investors should be buying at these prices. I really don’t know where she will stop but I guarantee that it will go much then were we currently are 🙂
Agreed I did some averaging down today and like you always have a back up to back up. Im speaking more so for my trading portfolio.
cheers and good luck 🙂
I meant much higher in time.
OK, I’ll try to be a bit more constructive on this post compared to the previous one… 🙂
While GDXJ is making lower low (GDX hasn’t thus far), I notice that some PM stocks are still 20-30% HIGHER than their early Nov low.
This suggests to me that one has to be EXTREMELY selective in this market. Getting long GDX/GDXJ helps getting exposure to the sector, true. BUT, when it comes to some ETFs, and esp. when it comes to GDXJ, I suspect it is increasing becoming a mix of “apple and lemons”….
So IMHO, a sound and valid strategy consists in picking up specific stocks, and getting them at cheap price levels – which implies on down days, or even better, after a string of down days.
But #1 thing to consider is the quality of the name… That’s the number one criteria.
This, IMHO, maximizes the chances to get it “right” when sentiment turns up again.
Be patient, but don’t be afraid when things collapse. And don’t forget: have a plan, be ready – and have a plan after that plan.
Just my 2cts.
Best to all, and GL investing/trading.
LPG
“When going through hell, keep going”
LPG; I couldn’t agree more. In fact, I nibbled today and waiting for a bigger bite later. For some of these stocks, later is not that far off.
Hello Richard,
On some stocks, I also think “not that far off” either, fwiw.
Best to you,
LPG
just listened to miky fulp about oil price and companys, he figures 6 mths to a year before companys start shutting down, but no new projects starting has to hurt too.
The horizontal wells and fracked wells have fast decline rate. Even companies do not shut in wells, the decline rate is enough to reduce well count in an intermediate period. Also, Canadian companies usually drill in the winter to take advantage of frozen ground. If we start to halt drilling as we have done already, it will be the next winter to start drilling. Building roads for rigs are very costly so companies try to do as little as possible.
We continue to have deflation until we don’t. Will the Fed provide more cushion for the landing or will they just let it go now? It will be interesting.
Today Al Korelin saw a bullish tick ! Today Al mast follow ! https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BKHKmEtpWao
What’s interesting is the fact that gold will not sell off as much as GDXJ. GDXJ is the sentinel ETF to watch in this sell-off. It’ll tell you when to feel comfortable in most purchases. Some stocks are holding up well today; others are not. This should be the final move down for GDXJ and could take a little while. It appears GDX will hold up better.
Excuse me- I never said that Aida,,,
Sorry Sally, went back to check the posts, it was Gil expecting 1130.
A good article to read.
http://www.silverseek.com/commentary/end-gold-%E2%80%9Cbear-market%E2%80%9D-13909
Lawrence
A BIG FAT ….Yep!!
Lawrence,
Very good article. Thanks
Id like to suggest that this site which I find pretty ‘honest’ in its content and tone.. take a breather and reconsider its format. The integrity of this site I do not question… having Bob Moriarty in the comments section is a giant plus imo.
I am here because of silver & gold investment which as we all know has been brutal for over 3 yrs. I agree usually with the political ‘part’ of the show but find Al just a little bit too fond of his political views..at times. Postma & Gary are the reason Im here. The ‘other’ companies you put out there…I believe you should keep at a number.
You are getting too many and in my opinion you are primarily a precious metals site.
Thanks
Thanks for the suggestions Sally. Very meaningful and will provoke discussion.
Yep, Doc is right – Saudis are going to do nothing about oil for 2 to 3 months. They would lose faith if they did a 180 degree u-turn now this month or even next month.
Nope, this is a long game play for them BUT, unlike Doc, I think this is part of a US plan to really sock it to Putin. The Saudis despise Assad and Assad is propped up only by the Russians.
OK, lower oil is costing the Saudis money but they have about 7 or 8 trillion in reserves… and lower oil means a glut of oil workers, oil rigs, cost of new oil equipment which the Saudis currently need to repair, update and modernise much of their rig system – so they win win from a lowe oil price currently.
Then, if the stock markets collapse, the Saudis will simply use some of their 7 trillion in reserves to go buy a few blue chip companies in the US and Europe.
Hello Bob,
When you mention the Saudis “have about 7 or 8 trillion in reserves”, what are you referring to please ? ($, bbl ? etc…)
I apologize but it wasn’t clear to me.
Cheers & Best,
LPG
Dollars.
Saudi Arabia is estimated to have about 7 to 8 trillion dollars in cash… probably not lying underneath a mattress… but somewhere handy. Maybe buried in a big hole in the desert.
It could be more. It could be less.
The nature of Saudi Arabia means that the Royal Family is the country – i.e. they own all the wealth of the country – and they also own the state oil company, Saudi Aramco, which, dependent on who you believe, is believed to have anywhere between 2 trillion and 8 trillion is USD alone.
Then you have all the interests that Saudi Arabia, ie. the Royal family, own such as hotel chains, shopping malls, property, etc, etc.
So, conservatively, they could easily have 7 or 8 trillion USD or perhaps several trillion more on top of that.
When you begin to see how much cash they have you can begin to see how they are more than capable of driving down the price of oil and keeping there for as long as it suits them.
Would it not be better for the Saudis if they converted that cash into real money like silver,gold or PGMs? If the US dollar fails Saudi dollar holdings won’t be worth much.
Steven,
In case you are interested, here’s a link to the Saudi Central Bank data (called SAMA – Saudi Arabia Monetary Agency) as of Oct 2014. It includes a breakdown of the “Reserve Assets” of the Central Bank, valued at close to $750bn as of Oct. end:
(table 9, use 1 USD = 3.75 SAR for FX conversion purposes)
Best to you,
LPG
Thank you for clarifying Bob.
Best to you,
LPG
BANK OF RUSSIA …….RAISES INTEREST RATES TO 17%
Al, your holiday ‘togetherness’ doesnt cut it … across 97% of the world today. get real ok? Just because youre doing well doesnt equate to the world inc the U/S. being well.. or together.
Is Cory a relative of yours….??
thanks
thanks
January will be a very important month for gold. On the monthly chart, we are at the point of a large wedge formation. I’ve not seen anything like this in very many charts where pricing goes right out to the exact point. Either gold will take out the descending resistance line of the wedge or it will take out the long term uptrend support line of the wedge.
Spreads narrowed again, looks like a breakout, with no losses incurred during sell offs:
http://quotes.ino.com/charting/index.html?s=NYMEX_GC.G15_M20.E&v=dmax&t=l&a=0&w=1
If the US is making a deal with OPEC to gang up on Russia, the low oil price is biting off the US’s own foot. Much of the US economy rose on the booming energy export sector.
The regulators are expecting something dramatic soon.
http://investmentresearchdynamics.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/12/Untitled6.png
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