Morning discussion with Gary
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I’m with you on that. I wiggled out of a couple of trades this morning and will sit on cash for a bit. This will be difficult as I always want to be “In”.
Prudence, Dan, prudence!
You bet! Two of my late December buy targets are up 7% today; PNE and TGL; both oil and gas exploration companies.
As you know Shad, my thoughts exactly.
Gary,
Great calls on stocks the last several weeks!
You’re on a roll bud!
Thanks
there is massive volatility in all markets caused by the global issues we all know about.
I really believe the charts and cycles have been screwed up by all the “events” and then initial and then secondary market reactions .
I have been in and out of the jdst and dust products and in and out of the spxs and spxl products and now TZA (which I kept but wrote covered calls).
I think anything can happen not–hows that for a prediction–I think they can drive regular equity markets higher or be thwarted in their attempts, and the same for metals esp when we look at what happened to silver today (up2% premarket, then trashed–and it was big boy trading that did that.
my longer term set up is a market disaster. We have not heard about retail sales recently , but housing and manufacturing stink which prob means retail will stink up the place even though they will spin it.
we never had a recovery and now things appear to be slowing.
Jan. gld option spreads are increasing due to this volatility . makes one wonder if it’s just the FOMC meeting this week or if a big move is coming( up or down).
I think big event is coming, particularly CME limit change. They can shut down exchange for a period of time if they want. Something is going to happen very soon.
And your comment explains exactly why I am waiting and watching.
by the way-I used to play with options but the costs are high and the spreads bid ask are wide. -makes it tough to make money in options at least on the leveraged stuff–I have even seen wide spreads on the no leverage products. cant afford to pay hi and then sell low.
even trying to do a bear or bull spread is tough.
LOL–i had a jdst position this am that was up a ton–I sold half and then checked back and jdst was down over 2 bucks from where I sold half. sold the other have 0stil at a profit and will sit tight with longs I hedged with JDST as I think somewhere her the metals move up large when we least expect it.
Its the big news i said would happen after elections has been delayed. I agree they are going to release breaking news that hopefully and finally put gold out of its misery.
Wat elections has been delayed Glen? I must have missed the news.
I mentioned before elections that we would continue to see wti oil go down, metals bottom at some point and the catalyst to move the commodities higher would be major news. Like a black swan or a sudden emergency meeting held by yellen. Who knows im just throwing it out there. My news that I said would happen at or after elections is taking a little longer 🙂
to be frank, paper gold is very resistant to everything that’s supposed to bid safe haven. Look how powerful they are. Even the biggest boys out there like Russia/China who have all the reasons in the world to ditch USD and expose COMEX fraud dont do anything. Really nothing will flip sentiment on PM. Look at Rick’s $1435, it’s not reachable …. breaking $1123 is easier.
Its going to happen I believe sooner rather then later. Most of us have been down this road before. Blood first, then the rise when we all least expect it. We are not to far from it. It’s moments like this of uncertainty, extreme volatility and red days and new lows followed by newer lows that creates the panic,fear and depression in investors and traders. Its nothing more then a cycle and cleansing for the new bull. We must go through the pain to recieve the joy.
My big winner today was (again) HOG puts. I picked up some more GDXJ calls this morning and added to the OIH and OIL calls that I bought yesterday. Sold some ANAC puts for a modest gain, too.
GL with all of these Matthew.
I’ve been nibbling one touch yesterday and a bit more today on selected names.
IF IF IF IFFFFFFFF we have a very bad (few) session(s) in the coming few days and PM stocks take the hit, I have stink bids in place for some of them, as well as for lower strikes on SLV, GLD.
Best to all, and GL trading/investing.
LPG
“When going through hell, keep walking”
To make it more colourful, I’ll say that I have been “snipping” over the past few weeks.
Right now, I am preparing amos for an RPG-style assault.
Best to all, GL investing/trading
L(R)PG
THIS WAS NO BOATING ACCIDENT.
THIS WAS A SHARK
This is NOT TAX LOSE SELLING
THIS IS A SHARK
The Russian Ruble is crashing, the Russian economy is crashing.
Oil is crashing.
The world is falling apart.
Stocks were down triple digits, the shorts were ready to put a stake on it.
gold was up $30 getting back all of yesterday’s losses.
Then what happened?
Shortly after the FOMC MEETING COMMENCED EVERYTHING REVERSED.
If anyone thinks these markets are any better than a Las Vegas casino you need to get your head examined.
Chartster,
You are congratulating GARY on great calls.
Exactly which calls are you congratulating him on?
First he said it was time to go long and buy gold.
He said the bottom was in and not to let your emotions keep you from buying.
Then to cover his back he said he put a hedge on.
Then he said gold would go to $1280
Now he is saying it won’t
Again I ask you exactly what call are we supposed to congratulate him on?
Are you that deluded?
Al, a few weeks ago you said you stepped off the curb.
Now you are saying you are on the sidelines?
Help me connect the dots
Stocks, not gold James
His calls regarding the conventional stocks have been spot on.
All ya’ll are lost regarding gold
Hi The Greater,
About a day after I said that I was “stepping off the curb”, I said that I was back on it.
I, by the way, am not just rationalizing here. I am not as quick as I perhaps should be in this case.
At the current time, I have to agree with you about the casino nature of the markets.
Sad but true as I agree this does not appear to be a boating accident.
Coincidence?
JAMES…THE LESSER,,,,,,,,,,,,,,YOU ARE SPOT ON……..concerning the world is falling apart……..and the Las Vegas casino……………………………..j……..
James is right about Garys calls as far as I can tell, so much for confident 1280, anyway, the other thing he is right on is the market is a casino. Except that is very old news now.
Anyone who didn’t see it years ago isblind imo.
Ive been calling it gambling and betting for some time.
Investing now would be buy land hire people and grow something for example, the markets? pure gambling.
Wernt these markets supposed to have something to do with price discovery at one point?
grow your own garden……..forget the employment thing………unless, they are like minded individuals……….and besides there is to much to lose going forward in this cycle of life……..people are going to turn ugly……………………jmho………….
There is no call on stocks other than BUY BUY BUY
I am not buy, buy, buying at this time.
Congrats James! You made sense with that statement
And let’s not forget his great call on oil
They are keeping it down until he election is over
Yeah right
James, I was one of those who thought oil was being pushed down to make the electorate feel good in front of the elections–incumbent protection. K Street helping their lap dogs keep their seats–cause it’s easier to keep them than to train a new litter. Was there some of that this time? Maybe so, but not so much. ….Or did it trigger more than they hoped for–ergo be careful what you ask for! Beats me!!! In any case, we’ve seen it in the past. But as they say: the past is not necessarily a prologue; and it certainly didn’t hold true this time–as you’ve pointed out.
BTW, enjoy your contrariness. It adds color to the discussions.
You are correct James, he was wrong on oil and gold.
He also has been better than anyone calling stocks! Anyone I follow for sure.
Another fake rally today that has fizzled out in the general market and traders take it as an opportunity to offload stocks.
Oil has had the dead cat bounce expected and now turning back down dragging the whole market down with the s&p below the 50 day again.
Just my opinion, following these charts is following the banksters. I love how the drop in gold was called a sell-off. I wonder how physical was sold in the east during that 30 plus dollar slam?
I guess we’ll see but remember, this trend started 100 years ago and hasn’t ended. Who knows when the blow off top will come, but history says it will come and charts and indicators won’t predict it.
The fundamentals reflected in supply and demand are reflecting it.
35/50 wti oil..I know I sound like a broken record but at least this record deserves many many pints? Would you guys not agree 🙂
Correction 35/40wti..
Alert Alert!
Topping action in canadian dollar. Looks like another massive 2 point move coming soon. This “may” be the move that triggers gold down again. This volatility turns my stomach.
Long term=In
Short term portfolio=out with skeeta by the fire place having a pint.
Matt,
Question for you!
There are gaps on many miners from a weekly perspective. Iag,ngd,sprott etc etc.
Whats your take on the current spread of those miners between the us and tsx prices. What im saying is that there was the us holiday thanksgiving and the candian side gaped up. It seems this spread needs to be corrected? Does it not seem more likely the canadian side needs to come down more?
Thanks in advance
I think companies like IAG will fill their December 1st gaps but not their November 6th ones.
Supporting this view is the fact that the December 1st gap is the only weekly one.
I consider gaps in the indices much more important since they are much more widely followed. As I mentioned weeks ago, GG has many unfilled gaps going back to the ’90s.
Okie dokie!
Thanks
Silver seems to be falling faster than gold but I guess it shows us which direction gold is going to go.
Gold and oil needs Russia to lash out now – not something that we want to see if we yave any sense.
Matt I meant the candian trading side gaped down on the 28th.If those gaps are to be closed the canadian side needs to come down faster in percentage terms?
I have fresh daily chart sell signals on NGD.TO and it looks like it could double bottom (filling its gaps).
The riskier plays just might lead the rest off the bottom just as silver tends to lead gold as investors seek to leverage a “sure thing.” By “riskier,” I mean levered to the price of the metal; I do not mean out of cash and/or nothing but moose pasture for “assets” and located in Venezuela.
I wish I had been short Gold and miners the past 3 years. They are simply dead. The bubble is over. Gold looks to be going sub 1000 oz easily. Miners, likely no end to the selling in sight.
if , you did not know to short, what makes you so sure that gold is going to sub $1000, just asking………………………………..ootb
I posted last week some info from kitco……..concerning 36 professed experts,,,,,only a couple saw gold going lower…………………..but, out of 36 only 21 responded, which tells me……..1/3 do not know anything………………………..jmho.
if those speaking do not have a clue……………they should STOP GUESSING , and take a chair on the sidelines……………..
J the long excellent point
thank you
Tom it talk like that that usually signals a turn is near
I dunno James. I could see oil in the 40-50 barrel range for a decade, gold in the 700-1000 range for a decade, housing dropping 15% from current levels-stabilizing. It could be long lonely period for anyone trying to make money. I just don’t understand how stocks can continue higher. I suspect their pullback will be in the magnitude of 30 to 40 % before stabilizing. I think the Fed did its job and is going to step away from the playing table to let things play out.
Tom,
Gold at 700 to 1000 for a decade , not happening.
The next 7 years will be huge upward movement once we get past this washout.
Very exciting times!
ditto
J the long two excellent points
thanks again………..
World stock markets have become one giant video game, inside which all players have become zombies.
I bought a $13 weekly call option on the RSX (Russia ETF) this morning and it was up to 200% before lunch (I closed a little over 100%). It was a long shot and it will probably be coming back down tomorrow, but what a trade! Sitting on the sidelines is probably the wisest, but getting in early and selling before the end of the day can be pretty profitable too in these JDST and JNUG stocks (I don’t mean trading options on them though).
There was never an intermediate low Gary.
It was a continuation move into the final low.
I bought some miners in a small small trade and will edge into a full position. I don;t trade I just consume shares…
This is a 4-5 year investment. I have all my juniors and have all free shares accumulated over years by buying low and selling enough to get my profit in freebies.
Over the years the free share accumulation strategy pays off. There will be a blowoff top sometime in gold where Barrick is 400 bucks and some crap juniors is 3.50… These majors are being priced for zero… That is a trade I’ll take all day long…. Certain intermediates have a million ounce production and no debt….
But one must have a big set of keholes to to do this trade.
But not the next 3 years. Howeever, this is not a dead money trade. We are entering the sovereign debt crisis that will obliterate most investors and governments…
gold is a protection form government – it is not a currency any longer. Just look at the kids today. The new gold is a smartphone with a pay app..
MANY GREAT POINTS……..KEN………………………………I agree with most…….j
Yep. This is a whipsaw market where if you buy the mini-dips and sell the mini-spikes you can still make money, but you have to be very very nimble, and a few extreme moves can cost you dearly if you are on the wrong side of the trade.
I am about ready to finally sit on the sidelines until the last week of December, post-Christmas.