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What can be learned from the Fed meeting one day after

December 18, 2014

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38 Comments
    Dec 18, 2014 18:28 AM

    What a bunch of CROOKS, here we are at the end of the year and THEY will not let the price of GOLD RISE, even after they made that SECRET OIL DEAL WITH CUBA !!!!!!!

      ditto on the Crooks………………………………..

      Dec 18, 2014 18:50 AM

      Be patient. I still think we get our reversals early in the New year. I am pretty optimistic actually because I think the dollar has topped. We will know by late today or tomorrow if it is going higher or will shoot sideways and head back down.

        Dec 18, 2014 18:35 AM

        Dollars prior peak has been violated by a couple points at most (very minor) but the Euro has not quite made a good bottom to match that back on December 8th. Thirty or forty pips to go. I still think we get imminent reversals here so this is well worth watching if you want to know where gold is going next.

    Dec 18, 2014 18:30 AM

    This is slightly off topic but there is a SGT report at silver doctors that you might want to have a peek at.
    http://www.silverdoctors.com/sgt-3-new-signs-total-economic-collapse-is-in-progress/#more-49293

    Some one in high places expects something rather nasty to happen.

      great summary for which has been mentioned this week ……stay tuned……….and thanks for the high lights…………………………….j……………………….

      Dec 18, 2014 18:58 PM

      Survival kits have been distributed to some government agencies such as the Treasury Department since shortly after 9/11. Nothing surprising about it.

        Dec 18, 2014 18:23 PM

        Nothing at all Mr Miller

    Dec 18, 2014 18:42 AM

    Canadian tobacconist’s have made a fortune shipping Cuban cigars to The US disguised as art supplies, they will soon be starving artist’s.

      short art and go long gars…………………..

        POT AND GARS…………..theme………..smoke your way to riches…….

          Dec 18, 2014 18:55 AM

          Jerry, my wife smokes at least seven cigars a day now and that is a result of me getting her to cut back by 50%.

            Dec 18, 2014 18:59 AM

            Over the last ten years she has smoked over 6000 cigars, as SD Marc would say, YIKES!

            Dec 18, 2014 18:04 AM

            That should read 36,000, YOWZER!

            Dec 18, 2014 18:05 AM

            Your wife smokes cigars? …..cool. Mine won’t take an aspirin for a migraine for gosh sakes. And she won’t touch a beer. She shuns smokes like they were invented by Satan himself. I am the devil incarnate to her!

            Dec 18, 2014 18:31 PM

            Our neighbor, a petite and very successful interior designer sits on their back deck and smokes cigars!

    Dec 18, 2014 18:43 AM

    Great segment, Cory and Chris…

    Hey I’m looking at a 1-yr chart of TLT and yeah, I’m short treasurys (short-term) via this vehicle. Considering Yellen’s statements, anyone else bearish on bonds? I know Rick is bullish longer term. I’m just betting it kisses the 20-day MA around 123 first.

      Dec 18, 2014 18:42 AM

      This selloff in Treasuries IMO is a correction…the trend is still higher price/lower rates. I sure wouldn’t want to short them now.

        Dec 18, 2014 18:17 PM

        Thanks Chris, yeah I through caution to the wind figuring I could buck the trend for a day or two. Bought some cheap TLT Puts on Tues sold this afternoon. I did okay.

          Dec 18, 2014 18:58 PM

          Glad you got out quick…I tend to side with those who say that in a year we could see the 10-year Treasury at 1% if these magical central bankers can’t keep deflation at bay

    Dec 18, 2014 18:06 AM

    I am looking for a reversal in wheat tomorrow. Time for it to head back down to earth. Not sure if anyone else here follows those markets. Corn should follow shortly on the declines parade.

    Dec 18, 2014 18:11 AM

    These guys are CRIMINALS TO NO END, on that new OIL DEAL with Cuba, if sanctions did not work for 54 years with Cuba then why are they still sanctioning Iran,Syria,North Korea and now Russia !!!!!!!

      bj
      Dec 18, 2014 18:23 AM

      Why?
      For the same reason cartoons areon put on Saturday morning for children–but in this case, public consumption for adults. It’s good political theater and great drama for the mainstream media talk show pundits.

        Dec 18, 2014 18:55 AM

        NO, IT’S MORE THAN THAT…………IT’S CALLED DESPERATION AND GREED !!!!!

    Dec 18, 2014 18:12 AM

    Well you are right about incomes Chris. I would not hang my hat on hope of any big changes on that front though. Real median household income is in outright decline and is now back at numbers we last saw in 1989 which is 25 years back!

    Yikes……who ever expected that? (Other than the people who were fighting globalization efforts and Free Trade of course). The chart appended below from FRED shows what looks very much like a double top with a final peak in 2007 and it has been all downhill since then.

    So much downhill in fact we have now dropped below the last income peak in 1989 and that is a big worry. It seems very unlikely to me that there will be a turnaround either in the current climate as the threats to employment are rising in an age of automation, improbably high public debt and continuing off-shoring of industry.

    We can only wonder what might need to happen to get income levels back to what was seen in the past or how much positive economic activity will be required to turn this around.

    We are on the down slope now and some people had best get used to lower expectations.

    Federal Reserve of St Louis – Real median Household Income – 1984 to 2013
    http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/MEHOINUSA672N

    Dec 18, 2014 18:24 PM

    Watch out US of A. Your bill of rights is turning to ash. Civil unrest stands to be the undoing of your nation

    https://www.youtube.com/user/TheAlexJonesChannel

    Dec 18, 2014 18:37 PM

    Wow…..a 2% up day for US equities. Hmmmm…..but the Spidey senses are tingling a little.

      Dec 18, 2014 18:59 PM

      Those chasing this need to be nimble when the music stops so they can grab one of the chairs!

    Dec 18, 2014 18:44 PM

    I have a question about Fed raising rate in 2015… what if.. the Fed does not want to raise rate but big treasure holders like Russia/China dump US treasuries?… what can the Fed do without QE to keep the rate low?

      Dec 18, 2014 18:21 PM

      Can they just buy all the treasuries dumped on the market? It should work for a while before $ node dive when Russia and China uses the newly acquired dollar to buy real thing.

        Dec 18, 2014 18:54 PM

        You might be assuming nobody else will buy those treasuries. Thing is that part of the reason rates are being driven so low is that demand is high so bond prices are on the rise. If anything there is a coming shortage of US debt issues so anyone dumping them would find willing buyers. Especially if the global deflation trend continues.

          Dec 18, 2014 18:52 PM

          I was talking about extreme case mentioned by genesys. In the current market there are a lot of captive buyers. This is what financial repression does. government wins by offering low or negative rate. The other side loses. Since poeple need to grow their investment by having a good rate. A low rate will produce impoverished retirees in the future.

          During last few years, there are many months fed bought more than newly mint treasures, so the above statement is not too far off. Even the deficit is supposed to be 450 billion but debt has grown over 1.1 trillion. They need to issue treasury to make up to gap not mentioning that there is large amount of maturing short term debt every year.

            Dec 18, 2014 18:02 PM

            The Fed has many ways to keep rates compressed. Worst case if someone big “dumped” Treasuries, the Fed would find a way to absorb them. What we will end up with eventually where sovereign debt is concerned are two markets, a la the precious metals. In the one, central banks will be the buyers of last resort in nationalized sovereign debt markets. In the second, what’s left of the markets will make their own decisions as to value with what’s left. Even now, interest rates vary widely elsewhere; there, market forces still work.

            Dec 18, 2014 18:57 PM

            Thank you Lawrence/Birdman/Mr. Temple….