We could be in the bubble phase for the markets
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Good chart. But I don’t think the bubble phase will last long. Joe sixpack doesn’t have any money left to throw at this market this time around.
Joe Sixpack isn’t doing much Christmas buying this year either. Black Friday has a reddish tint to it–and the stores are dropping prices directly or via coupons almost begging consumers to buy. Ho Ho Ho, even so, this market is not based so much on economic fundamentals as money printing by central banks.
How ironic that the Japanese gov’t, by way of its central bank, is buying up the Nikkei–or is it the other way around. Either way, it used to be that when the government owned its country’s businesses we called it communism.
Albertans probably will be cutting back big time this Christmas season IMHO. I know my family is.
Dan, do you work in the oil sands? I am interested in some on the ground reporting from your parts. Any major layoffs?
Chris, what do you want? I don’t work in Oil sands but I have a lot of friends who do. The best oil sand company is probably CNRL and can sustain production at heavy crude $37 and it is at around 40 now. The biggest oil sand company has all in cost of $80 WTI equivalent to break even. Others are higher. I think Alberta can get by with 80-90 oil. Serious cutback is needed at current price. It is coming after Christmas.
Thanks, Lawrence.
The biggest layoff will come from EPC companies. I heard Jacobs is planning to layoff 40%. Others are probably more. My friend company just shrunk their work force from 400+ to a few dozen, it is call IMV Projects. Oil companies probly rely on cutting projects instead of people since salary is not as significant compared to projetcs. This translates the layoffs to EPC companies and drillers. The exception is Statoil which has laid off most of its employees and stopped all oil sand projects.
Hey chris, my wife is in the safety business and they expect a normal year due to extra turn around work but that will dry up after awhile also. I expect prices in the 60s and 70s by next winter. Alberta will figure a way through just like Alberta figured out how to get the oil out of the sand. My opinion only.
Let me ask you, Lawrence. It’s slightly off topic but, do you have a grasp on how many foreign workers work in the oil sands? I am thinking these oil companies will cut our Canadian boys/girls and keep the foreign workers.
Dan I think you are right, Alberta will be able to have a way out but we have to live more modestly. I may have to find another job though.
Thanks, Dan. Alberta will get back on its feet, no doubt about it.
Chris, I don’t know how many foreign workers working in the field. But there are many. I knew two ladies who used to bring a lot of labour workers here from China. Unfortunately they are in Chinese jail for bribery. However I believe there are far more out of province workers from eastern Canada.
BJ,
It sure looks like he’s doing OK to me.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=RTH&p=D&yr=5&mn=6&dy=0&id=p16632695028&a=381264247&listNum=1
Gary, does the chart look too perfect for you? If you are the FED Chairman, does everything look too perfect as well? if it is so perfect, why don’t you raise interest rate? Something is really wrong, without active intervention, how can everything line up so well? However, how about they are not doing it to benefit investors? Can 2000 and 2008 happen again? why not? How about even worse, everything melt up due to money printing and US runs out gold?
Agree, but one must wonder if the real bubble is the bond market as TLT holds 124 and appears to be going higher. Look at the prior peaks 2008, 2011 and now 2014. Both other times everything was collapsing, now this time nothing, markets at their highs and FED QE is over. Is the bond market pricing in more QE or Europe QE?
The best thing about Gary
is that he’s so often nervous
…. a sign of mental health!
Gary is right about Biotec sector. I’ve been trading the ETF symbol FBT all year long and have done well with it but generally only buy it on pullbacks then sell when it goes back up in a day or two.
If the NAsdaq is up then generally the biotech also follows it..
The best macro economic analysis by far I have read in a very long time was posted by John Williams in the commentary section of the Kitco site. The article is entitled ” A downhill run for the dollar in 2015″ and it was posted on December 17th.
My very best wishes for all on this site for a happy and prosperous new year.
Now I start to think.. it’s 2007 redux. in 2007, banks were caught off guard with greed and not ready for crisis. Now the Fed has successfully bought time for them, setting some speculation about huge problem with interest rate derivatives aside, if stock market collapses now banks are more ready to own the entire US economy.
It’s like Tom Cruises’s Edge of Tomorrow movie… check the movie if you know what I mean..
Banks are so privileged, they get new chances at the cost of taxpayers..
Maybe I’m wrong… willing to hear comments.
I do not think you are wrong………………the politicians have contributed to this mess……..100%
Thanks J.
In my view, the market is building a persistent, complacent bubble since dec 2012. I wonder if the current turbulent moves in the market are signs of an impending implosion. To me, the next few weeks could be decisive on whether the market builds yet another parabola on top of the current one, or will crash all the way down to 1400, with an initial target of 1740 in just days. The megaphone pattern could still play out to the down side.
Gary do you think oil has bottomed or do we have another small leg to 40is area ahead. It bounced up today.
Interesting comments about gold backing the ruble:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fx2ffL7eSR0
for the entertainment of your cirlce of friends and family is still a great way to keep in touch. if the writing is good enough, it may pick up a following beyond that, through word of mouth. quality still rises to the top amongst an ocean of trashy
Yes, it certainly does/is Arya.
Chart of the day
http://blog.smartmoneytrackerpremium.com/2014/12/chart-day-58.html