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Friday and The Doctor Is In

Big Al
December 19, 2014

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51 Comments
    Dec 19, 2014 19:25 AM

    Doc, I’m with you. I bought some TGD@.95 this morning, MDW yesterday, and MUX on TUES@.93. They could bottom soon.
    BB

      Dec 19, 2014 19:15 PM

      How about doing coverage in your newsletter on Rye Patch, Orex, or Exeter. I really think over the next 2 years all 3 companies will be taken out by larger or mid tier companies for a nice pop. (Rye Patch will likely be taken out by Coeur once they do more exploration, using the incoming revenue from the Net Smelter Royalty from Coeur). (Orex management already has a track record for building companies that get taken over by majors). Exeter is definitely going to get taken out now that they have the water on-site, which de-risks, and good feasibility studies that they are marketing around.

    Dec 19, 2014 19:39 AM

    Hello,
    Could you send me a copy of the investment newsletter? I had like to take a look at them.
    thanks.

    LPG
    Dec 19, 2014 19:05 AM

    Hello all,

    Although I have no views re: a bottoming of commodities in Mar-Apr as Richard mentioned, I tend to agree w. him with re: to the fact that some of them stocks seem to be currently bottoming.

    IMHO, there’s been a divergence in performance within PM stocks ALREADY, which is due, IMHO to 1) quality of the story (+ balance sheet strength, +AISC levels etc…) and 2) country and therefore currency exposure (the more an E.M type of play, the more the market seems to have avoided the name).

    I’ve been nibbling this week on selective names on days of decent pullback, and will continue to do so. I emphasize SELECTIVE here as I believe that selectivity in the sector will be KEY going forward in the next few quarters.
    This stems from the fact that due to the deteriorating financial conditions of many explorers/producers (burning cash, cash pile getting lower and lower) in a still low PM price environment, I suspect only the best positioned companies will get/remain favors from the market.

    Still keeping a good amount of firepower in case we have a big drop in G&S (the one so many people still wish for) but I haven’t waited for that drop in order to deploy additional capital – which I started at the end of October.

    To me, as usual, I try to add selectively on pullbacks on names that I like and if the technical also look interesting (read: turning/bottoming) that’s even better. I try to get a plan, and stick to it.
    I have “noticed” that some names that I consider of “quality” get a beating of 1 to 2 days, then move right back. So for me, it’s been important to pick levels, and buy on these pullbacks days (i.e not wait for confirmation)

    GL investing to all, and all have a pleasant WE.

    Best to all,

    LPG
    “When going through hell, keep going”

      Dec 19, 2014 19:19 AM

      LPG; you’re very correct. SELECTIVITY is the key currently. The companies with some modicum of responsibility are starting to perform. All boats are lifted only with a sky rocketing gold price. We have stabilization of the PM pricing but don’t expect a “go to the moon” situation for some time yet.

        Dec 19, 2014 19:10 PM

        Actually, you are right. We do need strong momentum at our backs to see all boats lifted. I used that same expression earlier to today but my point was that in order for this market to start to gain traction and interest evolve we first need to see growing interest in the better companies. That’s happening already and will attract interest in the laggards.

    LPG
    Dec 19, 2014 19:35 AM

    Hello Richard,

    Agree with you re: the “don’t expect a “go to the moon” situation”.

    I guess we have to toke it “step by step”… and for those of us who are unsure of what I mean, the (somewhat unrelated) link below will bring some memories for sure:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nITMhO3ZPZM

    🙂

    Best to all, GL investing.

    LPG
    Pacman style – step by step

    Dec 19, 2014 19:55 AM

    Hi Doc what are your thoughts on platinum?

      Dec 19, 2014 19:21 PM

      Don; the technicals are starting to look positive for platinum. The daily chart shows a trading range with platinum at the lower portion of the trading range. The 50 day MA is moving down to intersect pricing. That’s the first obstacle Platinum will have to get by. You’ll know in the next 2 weeks whether pricing moves lower off the 50 day MA or not. The Weekly is also trading sideways with the momentum indicators now moving in a neutral position versus moving down. That’s a positive. The indicators will make a choice toward the end of the month or into early January whether they want to reverse momentum or not. The strength of the move down is starting to be compromised. The monthly chart (THE MOST IMPORTANT ) still shows a bias to the downside with the potential low being at the 200 month MA which comes in about 1100. However, the pricing doesn’t have to bottom right at that MA which it didn’t the last time it moved toward it. My summation would be that I would bet you start to see momentum shifting favorably in January—-your odds increase if the Pricing holds against the 50 day MA—hope this helps.

    Dec 19, 2014 19:34 PM

    Thanks Doc

    Dec 19, 2014 19:01 PM

    The melt up continues
    Stocks could be good for a few more years.
    Gold could be dead for several more years.

      the stock market should have already turned over…………..we have been calling for that , when DOW was 14,000…………this night mare is sure to continue, since, the politicians are now totally controlled by the BANKS…………….

        I am betting it only gets worse from here…………………….

        Dec 19, 2014 19:27 PM

        J, I hope they can allow a large correction. However, it is only game in town. Banks should have a lot of cash they may pile in. Gary’s euphoria phase is very likely ahead. However, I am not sure what is pushing up stocks and compress the bond yield at this point. QE is supposedly ended.

          the banksters are thinking of stuff we can not even imagine………….it is hard to out think a thief and liars………………………………….jmho………….

      Dec 19, 2014 19:22 PM

      several years is not likely. I will bet within a year.

        remember……the elections are right around the corner………..2016…., and since the politicians are being ran by the banks…………and the general public is asleep, I think we are in store for some more bs………………………………….jmho

    Dec 19, 2014 19:06 PM

    Keep up the great work Doc. I support the position you are taking with the miners and share your sense of growing enthusiasm. And that is saying a lot for me coming out of a multi year bear cave!

      Dec 19, 2014 19:10 PM

      If a person wanted to stay safe they could buy EnCana for oil, Cameca for uranium, First Majestic for silver and Goldcorp for gold IMHO. I don’t own any but may dip into them.

        Dec 19, 2014 19:21 PM

        Dan, I have all of these and added both ECA and FR at the low. Staying with Cameco as well. However, ECA is mostly gas though.

          Dec 19, 2014 19:43 PM

          Agree, CCJ should be more positive as Japan restarts Nuclear and slows down on the LNG.

          Dec 19, 2014 19:03 PM

          Yeah, I noticed that after I wrote the comment. I am not afraid to buy any either. Gonna roll up my nickels and dimes now, will be back in a bit…

          Dec 19, 2014 19:04 PM

          I think I own a couple in an RSP.

    Dec 19, 2014 19:21 PM

    For those invested in PVG, does anyone have an opinion on the HUGE volume of shares traded today (30 times normal, Up more than 7%). Maybe this is one of the “Select Miners” we seem to be discussing?
    Today: 16,313,534
    Average: 548,450

      Dec 19, 2014 19:16 PM

      Yes, I can explain the surge in PVG. Yesterday I had to choose between buying PVG@5.30 or TGD@.95. I bought TGD, so of course PVG took off. It never fails!
      BB

        LPG
        Dec 19, 2014 19:16 PM

        Sorry to read this Bonzo.

        However, you might have noticed PVG was trading for a while below $5 both on Tuesday and Wednesday. I personally got an additional tranche on Tuesday as the price had reached a level I was interested in… Order was auto-executed as I had it in place for a few days).

        If this can be of any assistance, here’s what I do:
        1) pick the stocks I like fundamentally
        2) pick the levels I want to deploy capital at (trying to look at technical analysis/charts/TA indicators for this)
        3) think about how much capital I shall deploy at that level
        4) think about the what IF ? (what if it goes much lower, what if it never reach the level I wanna buy at). THIS ONE IS EXTREMELY IMPORTANT.
        5) put the buy order in place
        6) wait for potential execution when stock moves down
        7) IFFFFFFFFFF sometimes a stock really moves down fast, I MIGHT lower my purchase price….
        8) …otherwise, I just execute the plan I devised previously and rinse 1) to 6) and repeat.

        Best to you and GL investing.

        LPG

    Dec 19, 2014 19:28 PM

    Interesting presentation by Larry Berman (one hour).

    Mostly from a Canadian perspective, but principles of portfolio construction apply anywhere. He must dumb it down when he’s on BNN, because here he comes across a lot smarter than he looks.

    Hope the link works:
    http://vimeo.com/user11741535/review/114304052/d1436588f5

    Dec 19, 2014 19:55 PM

    As usual, on FOMC day gold stocks all went up in vertical line fashion, then took a vertical line dive. This is what always happens when there’s a big move up in gold stocks on FOMC day, but this time after diving, and before closing, the stocks made a strong comeback, but in mountain fashion. Now I know if they can’t keep control, they join and dump later, but this was different because they had control, but stocks rallied again, after they dived. I’ve never seen this happened on FOMC day.

    Dec 19, 2014 19:11 PM

    I MUST AGREE WITH THIS PHILOSOPHY BUY ! https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0pCDS97T-Ts

    Dec 19, 2014 19:40 PM
    Dec 19, 2014 19:10 PM

    Doc. Question i got to ask you this big pictures of gold and dollar. I heard one particular analyst said that gold top at 2011 as 9 year cycle top . it will bounce here and go down again in the future. also for dollar will be steady and a little bit down then go up big time again. I got confused by him. Would you explain to us more precisely due to your charts please? thank you. I mean a long term big picture

      Dec 19, 2014 19:42 PM

      Billy; I’ve said many times in the past that no one can divine the future especially as you get further out. There is no system that is accurate in timing. I can give you very good odds on the movement of the markets 2- 3 weeks out but to go beyond that is like flipping a coin. The further out the less the odds are that you’re going to get it right. Now, based on my charts, I feel we’ll probably see the previous high no later then 2019. This is based on a number of charts I follow. Will I be right?—-I don’t know but this is my best educated guess at the current time. Is this depressing to me as it relates to the miners?—NO. I say this because some of the miners will get their act together and decrease their costs which will morph into higher prices. Of course, this will take some time but time is now on our side for a lot of the miners. Interestingly, the dollar is right now right at the 200 month MA—-and it appears it’ll take it out next week. However, I would then expect a pullback since it would be rare to see it scream right through that huge resistance. However, it appears that gold is currently not influenced any longer by the movement of the dollar and that’s a good thing.

        Dec 19, 2014 19:41 PM

        I am glad we have you Doc. Merry Chrimas to you and everybody.
        Thank you again.

        Dec 20, 2014 20:10 AM

        Doc, I think gold will reach new highs by 2017, and it wouldn’t surprise me if it happens by next Halloween. It could even happen by Ground Hog day because the financial system could collapse in the twinkling of an eye.

      Dec 19, 2014 19:59 PM

      I also disagree with that analyst, Billy. Here is why. We are already looking at cyclical lows in miners whose source extends all the way back to early 2011. The length of the correction is nearing 47 months in the case of the companies as a group.

      Lets keep one important thing in mind….what goes down eventually always goes up again.

      By deduction this long period of losses and declines in the gold mining sector does not indicate to me that gold has a great deal more to fall (if at all). Referring back to a chart that was posted yesterday on this site titled “SWOT Analysis” we can see that this current mining bear is now the longest on recent record.

      Our conclusion should not therefore be that miners will go into yet a deeper multi-year funk based on the judgement of that TV analyst saying gold will fall further in the future because it has theoretically reached a cyclical top.

      That conclusion cannot be correct if you know anything about ccycles.

      In fact, miners are telling us that (gasp!) the bull run in gold that began over 12 years ago is in fact still intact. (Note to my friends here who will object to my change of position on this topic:…..try to forgive me but I was wrong and the charts now prove it). We do indeed live in interesting times. I now believe that golds ascent was merely interrupted by interventionist policy but that it will still complete its natural life cycle that was previously in play.

      So if the longest bear market in miners in modern history is coming to an end it can only mean one thing Billy. That is that precious metals prices are soon to embark on another move upwards that eventually will take them significantly higher.

      It is also telling us in clear terms that there is trouble in the world of currencies firstly and as an aside that debt has now overwhelmed efforts to contain it at a time when servicing of said debt is becoming increasingly difficult. I believe we should all know by now that significant currency devaluations still lie ahead for major markets including the Yen, euro, dollar and many others. Gold prices are the measure of those declines even if we cannot see it easily due to how different currencies are measured against one another in a relative way.

      I say that because gold acts as our barometer of the economic health of the world and when its price rises in all major currencies as it is now doing we ought to listen very carefully to what that early warning system is broadcasting.

      Gold will be on the rise again this year. So will many other commodities. This is also to some extent desirable from a Central Bank perspective because there is no surer way to inform the investment community of the presence of inflationary impulses than to see gold to rise against the dollar.

      This is also part of the reason I believe that the dollar is setting up to decline in 2015.

      Meanwhile, if there ever was a 9 year cyclical gold rule it is about to be broken and miners are key to this interpretation. There is little doubt in my mind that the collapse of oil stocks and oil prices in conjunction with the deep lows seen in gold and silver miners are now playing a role in setting up the escape valves for those wise enough to time an exit from an equity rout that we will see in the latter part of this year.

      My contention is we will see a rotation into precious metals as the equity market corrects its current excesses and that those will act as shelter until stock markets embark on their next moves higher. Much higher in all probability but that will take a while to play out.

      So in short, deep simultaneous declines in crude and gold (and many other key commodities) are a signal to start planning on reallocating out of overinflated stocks and into hard assets.

      Your guess will be as good as mine as to when the turn actually comes though. We have not yet seen a parabolic rise in equities that would indicate we are near the end. In short, I am saying I think your TV analyst is wrong. Gold will be going much, much higher before this is over.
      ———————–
      SWOT Analysis tells us that the bear in gold miners is almost at an end — MUST READ.
      http://www.kereport.com/2014/12/19/swot-analysis-months-attractive-entry-point-gold-equities/

    Dec 19, 2014 19:20 PM

    YOU NEVER SEE DISS ONE US TV POWER TRIPPERS ! The corporation of USA com pay hiss duets ! https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bMqgFidDSXU

    Dec 19, 2014 19:27 PM

    I was a big time buyer today!

    Last night I left a message for Matt stating I turned bullish again. For my followers and long time listeners you know where I stand because I have been up front and vocal about it.

    I also had a great discussion with my colleague vortex last night and we agreed on some issues but today I tell you were I stand with my purchase. I’m all in.

    Glen

    Dec 19, 2014 19:36 PM

    Another very good day for my tech and materials etf despite a flat market today. I will wait for a pullback in oil to get into that area. I missed a good rally but oil should correct and continue further down.

    Dec 19, 2014 19:57 PM

    Wti oil 35/40

    Feb/march

    Dec 19, 2014 19:49 PM

    BIG AL
    Is this your first day on the job. SPEAK INTO THE MICROPHONE.
    Secondly, you had better get off the sideline if your putting forward recommendations in your newsletter. Not good for business, bad image.

    Peter