People seem to be very optimistic regarding 2015.
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The Swiss Franc vote with the massive downswing, then immediate reverse, is an example of where Fundamentals actually trumped the Technical Analysis. It is a rare occurrence, but it does happen. That threw off Avi Gilbert, and Gary Wagner as well.
BTW – When everyone is feeling rosy and optimistic is a sure sign of a market about to top and then drop. There will be a black swan that “nobody saw coming” and it these tend to catch everyone off-guard. Soros is betting against the market now in a big way, some hedge funds are starting to add triple leveraged funds against the market like TZA or SPXU.
I tend to believe that our very own Chris Temple and Cory Fleck have nailed it, by commenting that the likely start of the crisis will be the financial defaulting of emerging markets, Banks, and Junk Bonds caused by the drop in oil. When the other shoe drops, the markets will go —- ” Uh Oh!”
Then 3 months later, everyone will write books and do interviews claiming that they knew the crash was coming. That doesn’t help anyone, and just sells books and generates guru worship. What we need more of are people like the commentators on this site that actually use their technical analysis & sentiment indicators to determine the timing on overall shifts in the market. Thanks to everyone on this site for all they do as collectively the people on this site are a force of good and knowledge.
So far, Peter Schiff seems to be fairly consistent, however, he has remained bullish on gold and bearish on the market & dollar for the last 3 years (which was the wrong mid-term call).
Thanks Shad,
Gotta tell you, we are a group of people who are very passionate about this subject. We don’t claim to be the smartest people in the world but each person on this site has a long track record of experience. We try as hard as anyone!
Peter Schiff is bullish on the market and bearish on dollar. Please do some research. He has been repeatedly emphasize it since the low of market in 2009 when QE started. He believes QE will keep all boats afloat including market. So he has mixed result for the last few years. Media seems to put words in his mouth. I hate them. I don’t follow Peter Schiff closely but I do listen to his show.
Yes the certainly will Shad!
Hey congrats Gary! I see you are being quoted in this morning’s MarketWatch…
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-bubble-that-lurks-in-2015-2014-12-29?dist=beforebell
Way cool. Bubblelicious, in fact! I agree with your thesis.
Gold, well, there are people out there expecting a lower price in 2015.
The people that have been right for years now.
People that expect gold to go up significantly seem to be counting on an inability to deliver physical.
All demand has been met by available supply so far, we shall see I suppose.
Oh a report from the silver institute was saying silver could go as low as about $9, course there would be premiums on top of that when purchased.
No idea if they have a clue about what their talkin about.
It would be carnage in the industry if that happened, bb. An absolute bloodbath.
bb………..Anybody who believes anything that the silver or gold institute come out with are fools ….they have been compromised.
When shopping around for a crash scenario, I came across this article which became interesting reading.
http://www.nber.org/papers/w12933
The outlook for copper has reduced considerably, bucking the oil price rout. But given that both these commodities are being used as collateral for high yield lending, a decline in copper along with a decline in oil will result in further detioration in credit eith significant counterparty risks as both oil and copper that have been hoarded in prior years come out of storage and prices become depressed.
The commodities super cycle was meant to be a system of hoarding commodities for the purposes of lending. But with derivatives, and securities tied to derivatives that drive equity prices, all based on an unregulated forwards market where significant price fixing has occurred, and a breakdown of the source of credit, you have a scenario that resembles the crash of the Bourse de Paris in 1882.
In this light, you’ll want to see equity prices or equities as a commodity to be hoarded, and to provide high yield credit for more equity buying.
Thanks Fran Six
http://blog.smartmoneytrackerpremium.com/2014/12/guesses-2015-brief-comment-biases.html