Gary’s final take on gold for 2014
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Back at you Marc!
yeah, true … bulls & bears both shooting each other at point blank range … you gotta be nuts to partake or disciplined as bloody hell
Completely untradeable. I have yet to see anyone call the gold and silver market. I have been in this market for over 15 years. No one has done it. Zero, nada.
Not a single person on the planet.
If any of you know of anyone who has done this, please name them.
That’s because there are no traders alive from the 1920’s who might warn us how this all turns out.
Dave, I think we are all learning that what is happening now is part of a large and historically significant cycle pattern that has not been seen in most of a century. But it is also one that is being subjected to influences that have never been tried in such scope and magnitude before. We might therefore conclude it will run to extremes not quite dreamed of because we don’t have past charts to guide us for this policy experiment during the peak of credit.
Birdman,
I see this as even a much bigger cycle. In terms of world power, I see what is happening in the western world, affecting the whole world, as a final gasp to the British empire that started hundreds of years ago after the crushing defeat of Spain. The power is now shifting to the east — with the gold.
Lets hope that if this is a great transition of world powers that it can happen peacefully for once in human history and without the usual war and destruction. At some point we really need to start proving that we are evolved enough to transfer influence without killing off a large part of the population in the process.
I have my doubts though.
Buy stops just put in at 1347.00. Sounds like a plan.
Trade general stock market indices, buy stop in gold 1347. Agree 147 is nothing in the grand scheme of things.
Any move back below 1170 would indicate a failed daily cycle. So rather than a buy stop I would put a firm stop below 1170 and if gold goes below that then get out and stay out for the next 10-12 weeks.
Then if I am bullion banks I will push the price to 1169 and stop you out. They watch your stop like hawks.
Isn’t it great the way they get to see this info? Wonderful.
I’m not one to believe in some past golden age, but have the markets ever been so rotten?
I need a lesson here in investing please…
If a company is worth 1 million dollars and insiders own say 50% of the company and they never sell any shares….can the share price go below 500k?
Yes….I don’t like how you phrase the question though but I think I know what you are trying to ask. Put it this way,…if a company produces special rocket fuel but the two owners are the only ones who know the recipe and then one day they both get killed in a car accident then how much is their company really worth?
On Friday we could have a $100 bounce or a $100 drop drop – all depends on which way they wish to send it. Gold and silver are just untradeable at the moment.
“we could have a $100 bounce or a $100 drop”
Maybe we will have both 😉
Ron Paul told me never trade gold. I believe him. Poeple just don’t get it. Bullion banks get all the weapons and you get a stick. Gold wins the long term but fundamental does not help you trading.
It is irrational to think they will stop manipulating when the price is $1347. They will keep working on it until they run out ways to do it.
Well if they butchered all the longs on the way down to the bottom then the only way to keep the game going is to send prices back up and suck in a whole new army of fresh meat.
Wonder why fundamentals don’t work?
JPM Derivatives Book: Who’s Zooming Who?
By Catherine Austin Fitts on December 22, 2014
Sometimes I have a profound sense of being ignored.
Actually, I am not being ignored. Rather, I live among caring, well educated Americans with a profound desire to NOT fathom the reality in which we live.
I empathize. I shared the same desire once upon a time. I was forced by circumstances to want to know. Once you leave a limited picture of reality behind, there is no turning back.
I know many fine people who do not want to know. I remember one colleague who asked me to explain why I knew the economy was going to slow burn. I started to explain the control mechanisms that are the backbone of the matrix that manages the slow burn. He quickly said, “Stop. I don’t want to know. If I listen to this, I will lose my hope and faith. I will give up.” He continued to predict the future based on his “official reality” which, of course, did not work out very well.
So I continued to predict that the US economy would not collapse, but rather slow burn by harvesting a vast variety of constituencies using a complex array of invisible, unspoken control files and mechanisms.
I know numerous colleagues who did not believe me about the extent of the collateral fraud, even with $27 trillion of bailouts, more than 3 multiples of what it would cost to extinguish all residential mortgages.
http://solari.com/blog/jpm-derivatives-book-whos-zooming-who/
Gary, why the big swings? It is clear, they cannot take the price down any further. Volatility is the only way to scare people out. Unless you focus on Crimex only, there are plenty of buyers. If there truly no buyers, they will take gold to $100 or less.
Looks like gold will close @ $1198 @ 1:00 EST
Nah, I think I am going to get my 1190 plus or minus.
Question is: meds or no meds ? 🙂
Good point….must be the prescription talking!
You see on the 5 minute chart how gold popped up and pinged its head right on 1190 before falling back? I think it does a retest now and that’s how we settle for the year. Maybe I am nuts but I thought todays decline was pretty predictable after that huge jump yesterday. So my call was 1190 and I am sticking with it, man!
Sigh. The “War of 1180” has resumed – I thought there might be a truce for the New Year.
Thought I would post this once again since the bearish feeling is overwhelming!
Hello guys,
First off I want to wish ya’ll a very prospers 2015 full off good health,family and loved one’s by your side. May we all have our day and may gold shine upon us once again.
Its has been a very long 3 year bear and valuations are at all time lows going back to historical times. The miners are just not in favor at the moment with the masses and average person. Rest assure the big money is in at this point.
So what do I see?
Last I spoke i mentioned we would blast off into the new years. What I forgot to add to the equation that changed my chart variations was tax loss selling. Some of you in here talked about this. Regardless it has delayed my projections by a day or two and maximum a week.
So get ready to here what im going to say. I believe the low is in! I believe we are going to have a first move of about 40 points up in one day on the hui index. I expect it sometime this week friday or next. I expect gold to go higher.
I expect wti oil 35-40 like I have been telling you guys since the eye can see and bird and matt know how adamant I’ve been about it. I expect wti oil to hit 46/48 by the end of this week. Miners and gold to begin a big move up.
There you have it not much more to say. As you guys know I roll with the punches and i put it all out there. No second guessing or pretending or conservative stuff with me. It’s all open and you know my position.
Short term=All in
Long term=All in
glen
I like the “bearish feeling” that is “overwhelming.
It’s not bearish enough to my taste… but I’ll take “pieces of the miners cake” given that sentiment.
Best to you and to all,
LPG
“When going through hell, keep going”
LPG,
When you have the muskateers including the hosts on sidelines or worried combined with most metals/trading sites calling for sub 1000, then I like the other side of the trade. All the expert traders/elliot wave etc are 100% guaranteeing sub 1000.
Lets see how she plays out.
Best to you as well 🙂
In my opinion, this week has been a GREAT opportunity to start trades (not daily, weekly, but trendy). I personally bought trading shares of all of my miners and also averaged into a position on NUGT.
We shall see what January15 brings, but I am betting (literally) that January will be +5% gold, +10% silver, and +15% on miners (~ 50% on the 3x NUGT)
Brian
Gary,
GLD has supply coming out of the 116 bottom. The bullion banks can “fleece” the market; however, if interest in gold is waning, who are they fleecing other than themselves? I heard on the interview the group believes it’s the bullion banks and long term gold holders in the market. Anyhow, for my work, GLD should test $119 and possibly all the way up to $121. At this point, supply MAY come out again and depending how extreme supply comes out, a retest of the November low could be in store. Again, for me, I would consider this bullish and the next decision point would come if the low fails the test. I would position accordingly to that plan in case the bottom falls out as it did in oil. People are getting impatient with gold. It will not simply offer a good entry point and road to profits. It will be difficult and require endurance. I would not be trading any smaller levels in here due to the “fleecing” effect.
Happy New Years!
Doc,
Tech fund traders and managed futures, these are trend traders. Their computers track trend formation and reversals and get long or short “with the identified trend.” The bullion banks know the algos buy and stop levels and they work the futures up and down to trigger small price cascades. This is all that is happening and all that has been happening for many, many months now.
Like I said I am not a trader. 99% of traders lose, why would I want to play that game?
But gold, hold gold, but not forever.
Why are people bashing gold at this point?
I will take a flat year considering the constant barrage of negative press and the constant assault.
Also after coming off of a an atrocious 2013 I think flat is decent enough.
However this is the year. No more excuses.
Filter out all the noise and focus on the main thing.
Nothing has really changed since 2008.
Ask yourself one thing – if the economy is as good as the mainstream media would have you believe than why can’t they raise interest rates?
I know I know it’s coming in 2015
Don’t go by what the fed says,cog by what they do
If Yellen is deluded enough to believe her own crap and raise rates the economy
will tank.
Interest rates are the key
Forget all the other noise.
I think the setup in gold is quite favorable right now
The time to sell was the failed 1800 third time, and the time to buy is this e d of year bottom of range 1200
The negativity in gold is very high right now.
Many people are tripping over themselves to call 1000 gold.
They are now committed to that
The base has been formed
The tide is turning
Don’t get caught off guard
All FED talk is about raising rates; however, nobody talks about the continuous buying of bonds by the FED to maintain the balance sheet size. So on one hand, they want to raise short term rates, but keep long term rates low by continuous buying? Go figure, and Bernake stated that the FED’s goal was to become more transparent. What a joke, they are more opaque now than ever. One guy says one thing and a day later another contradicts that statement.
You can throw cycle theory out the window in manipulated markets!! We will all wake up one morning and get a restatement of the gold price and everyone on the sidelines will have missed the boat!!
Exactly like I said. They will engineer a two year down cycle. It is by last minute dip. It proves that it is hard to push gold price down any further. They have to rely on tricks. It is not possible all the luck is on their side.
A Healthy New Year To Everybody At ..KER..A bit of advice if any of you people have any spare cash , that you don’t need to spend on food..rent or energy…..for the next year or two.
Just buy some physical gold & silver & forget about….It wont shrink in your sock drawer, but beware it is likely to grow your savings…..Good luck to all.
Um, shouldn’t we have seen a bigger decline in the miners today considering the drop in the price of gold?
Yes we shoud have, but we did not. This, to me, means that the miners will be postive for January
Or did the miners merely rise on low volume over the Christmas week?
Rise on low volume is a possibility, but I think I remember this happening last year, also. The actual metals AU/AG went to the lows as 31Dec approached, but the miners started to creep up in the last few days of Dec2013. Although, I was only buying AXU back then. ~ Brian
I am watching NUGT today. It looks like it is rising into the close (It is now green for the day), but today I have been wrong about everything.
Welcome to the crowd Brian! My predictions suddenly look idiotic after the days action.
On a positive note I am having my first sober New Years in two decades. So life is not all bad I suppose. I just heard they are going to turn my farm region into an industrial park for the Chinese. Shoot! And I really loved this neighborhood. Guess that’s it for the Hyenas that come to call each night. They will be getting the heave-ho along with all the farmers. I needed a new house anyway. This one is getting too small and I prefer the sounds of crickets and frogs to traffic and machinery. So its a move for 2015 for me. The Rift Valley is pretty big thank God. Still lots of space for a quiet life if one chooses.
Yep, that is exatly what happened about this time last year in the period from around Christmas Eve to New Year’s Eve.
I had been keeping a close eye on Allied Nevada at the time, for several months, and suddenly it went through the roof. Admittedly, that was on the back of a buy-out rumour, later proved false, that a firm in Hong Kong wanted to buy it out… and that, IMPO, seemed to be the trigger for miners going crazy.
Considering the drop in the price of gold today I think that GDXK held up quite well.
Right, it is almost 10PM here in the UK so… logging off for a drink… or two… or three…
Happy New Year everyone – may we all have health, happiness and hopefully also wealth in 2015… and if we can’t have wealth let’s pray that we have health and happiness 🙂
Everything gets bloodied at the end.
Does this portend a disastrous 2015?
I guess the commodity supercycle is really dead, James. We can stop talking to anyone who brings it up anymore. Instead, there is a whole big world of diminished expectations and slow growth ahead. The end of the dream….hopefully not too bloodied though. I just hate wars.
John Ing
http://www.bnn.ca/Video/player.aspx?vid=522301
Dr. Martin Murenbeeld
The one bond market to be watching is whether short sellers of treasuries on the secondary market will continue to be bailed out by massive infusions of short term treasury paper.
F6
Thank you, Gary for your commentary in 2014. Needless to say, I’m looking forward to what your work tells you in 2015. Happy New Year…
And, many thanks to Al and Cory for bringing many interesting guests to your blog…Happy New Year to you, Rick and Doc also.