Three interesting charts from Gary
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No, we noticed that stewie.
Pretty unlikely IMO that gold has made a final bottom until it tests at least 1050.
Gary,
I have to disagree. I agree with some dates this month but the final low has been put in and the crb and wti are putting lows in now not summer. IMO we get a higher low in the summer and not this final low.
I guess the million dollar question will be which side is right. Be careful Gary.
Glen looks like the gold miners are set to move higher early next week ๐
Peter
Huge bear flag in gold above. Sell short the metals and miners. All they do is go down.
I wish I could agree with you Tom but if the dollar reverses (as I kept hoping it would since January 1st) then in theory gold will rise. The fly in the ointment however is that gold is responding inversely to US equities and the dollar is more secondary right now. So provided stocks decline along with the dollar then gold would actually rise.
Looks like gold has reached the upper boundary of the pennant. It will have to turn down from here if the pattern is to remain intact. Whether it will eventually break up or break down is never known for certain however gold is still in a bear market. Should it break to the upside we might get a great suckers rally.
Oil will go down further with dollar upside and put in bottom between $40-32, most likely at $40. Gold will hang in here and make stealth slow moves higher and when stocks break in spring and gold and oil will go higher. Notion of 1000 in 2015 is preposterous. Volume in miners says anyone claiming 1000 is plain wrong.
Two years ago the notion of $1200 gold was preposterous…
I’ll point out that the volume spike in miners was due to the HUI testing the 2008 lows. Anyone short covered and longs bought with a very tight stop. That doesn’t guarantee that gold can’t go lower though and if it does the miners will at least retest that level and probably make a slightly lower low.
GDXJ is up 28% right now in just the last 16 sessions. Gold is up 8% since 7/11. Sidelines? No. How about “pay attention and manage risk?”
Correction: Gold is up 8% since 11/7!!! ๐
lol, i was wondering until i read this post.
When it comes to commenting on Matthew’s comments, it’s becoming boring from my sideโฆ.
Here’s the usual “+1” ๐
Best to all,
LPG
Here is useful observation for friday
DOLLAR WENT UP
OIL WENT DOWN
GOLD DID NOT GO DOWN. It’s trending slowly higher.
THAT’S NOT WEAKNESS. THAT’S STRENGTH being unnoticed or ignored.
At this point it is my belief dollar will go up to maybe even 100 but gold will completely ignore it just like it did for last month or so. Why will gold ignore dollar. Answer is simple. It’s put in the bottom and smart money is buying. You guys will see this later this year.
I agree. Smart (and big) money is using current strength dumb money liquidity to get out of dollars and into gold. They will fade the trade until it turns —and then accelerate their moves once it does.
Matthew,
Don’t you think that the size of currency markets and gold markets are much different by many foldsโฆ?
Can’t put my usual “+1” on this one ๐
Best to you,
LPG
LPG, if the currency markets are many times larger than the gold market, it only supports my contention in my opinion. Throw in the fact that most people have WAY too little exposure to gold and it is easy to see how action “at the margin” would play out just as I suspect it is/will. When I asserted that smart money is getting out of dollars, I did not intend to imply that it wants to get completely out of dollars. Gold would go up many times from the current level if everyone attempted to get just a 5% allocation.
Then there’s this:
โWe estimate that, during 2013, gold contracts traded between US$60 billion and US$160 billion a day โ most of them in the form of spot contracts,โ said the report. โFurther, during 2011 when liquidity was particularly high, daily volumes surpassed US$240 billion, according to the London Bullion Market Association. In other words, goldโs liquidity in the OTC market rivals major currency pairs and surpasses all U.S. stocks combined.โ
http://www.kitco.com/news/2014-06-19/WGC-Gold-Highly-Liquid-Among-Alternative-Assets.html
Best,
M
Got your point now..
Thanks for the follow-up Matthew.
Best to you,
LPG
So can I have my +1 now? ๐
Tick…tick….tick….tick……..guess not buddy. Times up. Two hours and no response. That hurts I bet.
Matt +2 for the delay ๐
Just playing wit ya Birdie…..
Imagine what could happen if enough big money gets it in their heads that Voltaire will be proven correct sooner rather than later.
http://media-cache-ak0.pinimg.com/736x/87/44/d0/8744d01a47466a9865562af6ba334e14.jpg
I had an experience recently.
I was given a few days ago as change on a purchase a 5 Euros note.
For the 1st time of my life, I really really felt it was just paper (I said to the cashier at the shop, looking at the note “this stuff is really just paper”, and she looked at me with big wide-opened eyes).
I’ve thought for long that notes were just paper, but for the first time I felt it for real just a few days ago.
LPG
And most don’t seem to realize that the word “note” means it’s a debt —complete with all the risks that entails.
Good grief, our whole civilization is built around interest payments. That’s why dollars work and gold does not. Please don’t tell me you think we should flatten that out of the equation. Money has a cost, Matthew. Notes have a cost too. Are you suggesting lending should be free for borrowers? What the hell would be the incentive?
Quit while you’re behind buddy!
You are the one on the wrong side of the political spectrum.
Motive behind lending should be love, as in, “love your neighbor.” When Birdman loans his neighbor a shovel, does he expect to get back two shovels for being neighborly?
Lending is what enables us to invest, leverage opportunity and make money flow to where it can be used best. There is no free lunch. Love is not a factor. Its only the socialists who think that everything should be distributed equally and money have no price. Matthew is repulsed by debt because he does not understand the purpose it serves. So we get cute comments from him about notes being debt and why they create risk. Hard money people are just so obtuse it defies reason. They would extinguish credit and have a world where we only have physical assets and little piles of golden rubble to heat our campfires with. Good grief.
Matthew,
+2 ๐
Wanted to give you that “+1” but could not make it under your comment yesterday so didn’t…
Sorry Birdman ๐
Best to all, LPG
Don’t encourage that guy! Ha Ha!
Thanks LPG, I feel better now. ๐
Bird, you didn’t answer the question, but you did manage to knock down a couple of straw men with your rant. Love is keeping the law. Ignore love and you promote lawlessness (like socialism), the same kind that robs the poor with “money” created from keystokes and thin air. What do you mean “money has a price”? That is hogwash. Money has value, the value men assign to it. You lend a dollar, you get a dollar back. Why should you get more? Don’t be a vulture.
You have got to be kidding me. Are you a Socialist or a Marxist?
You’re the Marxist, Birdman, if you think paper money works and gold does not. Simple as that.
Bird you are surrounded by free money, kinda like qe.
Matt’s here to defend his brother. Cute.
Free money = free love? You might be onto something bb.
Free money and free love, In my experience there is no such thing as either.
Mathew, I have read enough to know its true, LPG its true, Voltaire is right, its just paper, and eventually it goes its intrinsic value.
OK,so? Another one just takes its place, this time we have more options than ever before as to what might replace the U.S. dollar for example, not that too many people are expecting that to happen over night but ya never know.
It could be Asian paper for example, or SDRs backed by a “basket” of currencies or something backed by metal or as Bird reminded us, something backed by land, petro dollar was backed by oil and military, there are probly options most people have not even considered.
But commerce requires a currency (as far as I know), and necessity is the mother of invention, we will have our new currency, whether its digits or physical we will have it.
It could be anything and it doesn’t HAVE to be anything in particular, we merely need to agree to use it. Eventually, it will go to its intrinsic value too and then it will be replaced.
Wish I knew what it was going to be, knowing that could make a person very wealthy.
Did you miss the Sixties bb? Wild times man.
Yes, it would just be replaced —after those who held their savings in the former are destroyed financially. Paper-promise money exists only to exploit the ignorance of those who do not understand it (which is nearly everyone).
The value of money is its utility in making transactions work seamlessly. That’s why we all use it. Presumably you buy and sell mining stocks, gold, silver and other instruments by using dollars to complete the transactions. You do not use gold in the same way. Virtually nobody does and therefore it has no functional utility in trade anymore. Gold as a currency and common medium of exchange is dead money even though it retains an intrinsic value. Ergo, even you would agree dollars are the lingua franca of the day and we shall suppose they are entirely acceptable in your world or you would not take them in trade. So the rhetoric about exploitation and ignorance seems a little misplaced.
Born in 58 Bird,
This time, gold could be part of the next currency.
Even if it is digital, tptb only need to state that gold backs part of it.
Heck they could do it just to make fortunes selling their gold.
There is support for gold/silver as well, not the American constitution so much anymore, but the Koran, the ISIS caliphate was already minting gold/silver coins, Russia,China and so many others buying tons.
Reserve currency status is ready to change, the Rusians,Chinese,BRICs and SCO are preparing for it. I just think gold might have a roll to play.
Well I agree with that. There are good reasons the Central Banks don’t just sell it all off and forget about it.
Gold has been doing well in my currency, Canadian dollars. I am not on sideline.
As long as you can get it near spot, Lawrence. Around my neck of the woods it hardly excites many people though because the premiums have gotten to be so high.
Everybody wants dollars here and they are chronically in short supply. The jewelry shops on the other hand are full of stock and buyers are thin to non-existent. This is one of the hurdles that gold still faces versus dollars. Not just the lack of liquidity function but more because of the premiums.
It is just not rising in value that much…but dollars are. And dollars can be spent in hotels and bars whereas gold rings will just earn you a hairy eyeball.
stewie,
I agree not because i were a gold cap but because this seems logical with the setup. I believe this bull will be slow stair step up and Matt mentioned it. This is exactly what we want going into October year end.
Matt and Glen i agree also. I’m getting exited about oil as well. Mark my words.
Oil down trend and black swan that comes out of this murk will be used as excuse to introduce QE4 and that is when gold will take off like a rocket along with oil. I will be going heavy on oil once i see capitulation shown in volume and hammer with long tails. I’m exited for 2015. Gold bears in 2015 will be slaughtered. Why same reason why longs were slaughtered in 2011. When waves reverse if you are in charge you gotta slaughter the other side. Volume in miners says the sea changed is taking place.
Exciting times:
The $US is about to breach (or fail to) the 2005 high.
If it makes it through, some backing/filling s/b expected,
then the large gap between 94-95 will finally be tested
and probably filled.
Then ?????
It has already breached its 2005 high, but can it close the month above that level? I doubt it.
More significant resistance comes in around 93.5 or so.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$USD&p=M&yr=20&mn=11&dy=30&id=p70556369970&a=384143206
FYI, my stuff says 92.62 — current high 92.53.
On the linked chart, you can see that stockcharts has 92.33, but your info could easily be correct as I have noticed instances in which stockcharts was very wrong. It happened recently with a small junior of mine in which they showed a price and volume that were both WAY too low for one day. My trading platform showed the correct data.
Could be. I just checked Kitco — it appears to validate mine.
In any case, we are in a transition range now. Interesting!!
Matt,
you showed email them for a discount ๐
correction! I meant should not showed
So all your Stockcharts are now in doubt.
Fed will raise rates no later than September. Get short and stay short the metals..another 50% down move coming.
hahahahahahhahahah…..wait bwhahahahaha
Dude yo’u’re insane. If fed did that it would implode citibank, jpm, bofa etc. due to trillions of derivatives on their books. Raising rates will NEVER happen.
I can bet you money QE4 will happen instead. Let me know if you want to send me some money threw payal hahahahha
I might take that bet, Stewie.
Bird are you saying no more qe?
Is that what I heard?
Absolutely. There will not be another QE. Not with the dollar soaring as it has been doing. Bear in mind that one of the key elements of QE is to keep the system liquid. Federal Reserve initiatives were really a substitute for the absence of market forces in achieving that goal.
In the current setting there are very substantial capital inflows into the US from abroad due to a combination of a rising dollar, a rising stock market and problems erupting in other parts of the world. We are now seeing some capital flight into treasuries as well which is resulting in rates continuing to fall despite their very low levels.
These are originating primarily out of Japan and Europe although capital is flowing in from around the globe. So QE is not necessary to boost asset prices, increase available credit or improve system liquidity. M2 money supply is in fact growing and this is generally believed to be essential in keeping disinflationary forces at bay.
Not all the problems are solved of course. We are still seeing excessive risk taking which in itself can be destabilizing. But at this stage of the game it would be seen as folly to introduce another round of QE as market forces are effectively achieving what the Fed had been doing without Fed intervention being required.
So no, there will not be another QE. Not in 2015 anyway. And certainly not at a time when rate increases are being seriously discussed. Please keep in mind that should the Federal Funds Rate rise that is effective tightening.
And tightening is the opposite of QE issuance.
“Might be seen as folly”, more qe that is, Beginning of January 2 hawks are replaced with 2 doves. More qe coming according to Rickards.
About time I got a laugh Bird, not from your reasoning on qe but your talkin to god.
Bird, I really cannot agree there is no more QE. It may not be QE right away but there will be more. I don’t think they will call it QE since it has such a bad name. However, as long as they issue new money to increase FED balance sheet, we should see it as QE. They may even use off-shore bank to buy treasury without adding to balance sheet. That will be worst sort since it bypass any scrutiny. FED is fiercely refusing auditing. I would not resist audit if I have nothing to hide.
Tom,
I agree with you regarding gold. It will plummet, and should start any time now.
If you don’t mind, what in the chart is giving you a signal of 50% drop? Most are not seeing anything close to that. There are a few I follow that are saying the same thing.
This so called collapse you keep preaching in here goes back till last year before November 5th low. At some point we will correct but I believe it will be a higher low. What are you going to do if the train has left the station? Seriously how are you currently making money being out since last year?
I don’t remember you making any calls. Are you short? If rates go up down will come equities. I’d be more concern with equities going down then gold going down with higher rates. Consumers across the board are loaded to the 9’s on credit and paying bare minimum on there cards. Rates up collapses everything and gold will be the safe haven when that happens. Just some thoughts.
Further to this chartster we are currently in an ICL which Gary bailed on. That is my view and we have another 10-12 weeks of rally. We have completed 8 weeks of this ICL. This will run 13-16 weeks and maybe extended.
Just be careful. My thoughts are the correction you so badly want will only be one from a higher high. 1225 once taken out is off to the races.
Get in chartster
Glen,
My belief is gold is about to get washed out ( as you know )
It did just break a channel, but that’s a head fake IMO.
I much more than just the chart. I’ve been telling you why gold is about to plummet. It’s the same reason why oil did, and should continue for a bit.
There is a new financial structuring event that will catch everyone off guard. I think it’s upon us too.
It’s why the fed is about to raise rates. It’s why QE is over for good.
I’m following the financial bouncing ball. I follow what they do, not what they say. And I follow better than most.
I think the dollar has topped today. If not, next week. That’s the key to the financial change coming. Gary also has commented about that.
I’m in when the bottom is in.
Chartster,
You better hope your right because if not your going to be left behind. Everyone talks about the gamble of being in and then going down but no one talks about the gamble of not being in and then having to play catch up. I know one thing is for sure you nor I have the crystal ball or we would be filthy rich.
Many of you in here better hope she goes down and this list is long. Al, doc,gary, chartsters,skeeta, not sure about biggus, vortex, rick, chris temple, avi, every other person is so convinced we are headed below 1000 or below previous low. That is a big number.
Bird plays both sides but leans towards bearish more. Just lately he changed his tune but he keeps going back and forth.
Glen
Matt
Peter
?
?
Anyone else on this list speak up now or forever hold your breath but please don’t try and get glory later..
Maybe Marc?
Lawrence?
LPG ” I really don’t know if your committed or scared lol” neutral is what your tone sounds like.
Stewie was a time we were getting “MERKED” but now he is on board!
I stand behind my calls.
Long term=In
Short term=not sold
We are into an 8 week ICL headed towards 13-16 with obvious corrections.
The first correction will be on ecb 21st. I expect it to last one week.
cheers
Correction! ECB date is 22nd but i expect correction will start day before.
I told dock first up then down. But it’s not the down chartster is looking for. Mark my words interest rates will not rise under obama term. If im wrong i will man up but im very certain it won’t.
One last correction i meant rates will not rise voluntary but can and will rise at some point forced by the markets. Bonds and treasuries.
Glen, I am in gold and silver with my biggest position. I have less share but more ETF and physical. I have been loading up since last year. I don’t think Chartster makes me nervous any more since he has failed every time to give a date. If he can share his reason, at least I will consider it
Thanks for the info Tom.
Very useful.
LPG
๐
Glen
Wait until the US Multinationals get their first and second quarterly results and the US economy tanks, we’ll see how many US $ the FED is going to print. The US$ will do a great big bellyflop and gold miners and gold will be on the move big time.
Peter
Peter,
I admire anyone who at least puts his calls out there. In here most are on the sidelines=scared and that is not a good strategy IMO to make good gains.
Lawarence,
Good to hear!
Matthew thanks for your input prior blogs. I’m to busy running my company now to follow.
I do know a coulpe fund managers that went bearish on commodities 2009 & 2011. They still are. We are seeing a lot of deflation in areas now. Cash is sweet too! The thing about investing you have to be there every day micro managing and avoiding losses which is impossible. When you build a proper business it can eventually run on its own to some degree and cares not about markets and their crashes. You can sleep in when ever you want!!
Yes, at a bottom, most managers will be positioned with the trend that is ending. In August, 2009, the overwhelming majority of well known money managers were bearish stocks. Any that were short have NEVER had the opportunity to cover at a profit or even flat.
Today, the overwhelming majority remain bullish despite the risks.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$BPSPX&p=M&yr=20&mn=11&dy=30&id=p17034388904&a=384150535&listNum=1
Hi Gary,
How does do the above charts (more specifically gold) fit into your cycles. Is there a cycle low coming for gold in the next week or so?
Gold is still early in this daily cycle. But triangles will kind of screw with cycles sometimes.
The weekly gold chart has seen the low, and the momentum line in ADX has flattened, meaning that prices are forecast to rally. All of the bearish sentiment has been wrung out of the bullion markets, where the money to be made is in the bullish case going forward.
A scenario is about to unfold in short term interest rates, which will support gold prices. A dollar reversal is also in the cards. The target price of 2.52X the low of 1130 should be the completion of a WAVE ONE extension, where most of the gains were made in the first stage of the bull market.
A denouement in gold prices closes the ‘4’ wave correction, after a crash/capitulation. $CAD gold prices have broken out in the monthly chart.
Fran…please tell me the Loonie is going to stop falling!
Nice chart Mr six!
Glenfidish,
Responding on something:
“LPG โ I really donโt know if your committed or scared lolโ neutral is what your tone sounds like.”
I am long the PMs, long PM stocks (about 25-30) and long GLD and SLV Jan 2016 calls. I have written about all this in the past.
Does this sound like a lack of commitment to you? ๐
My recent purchases were at the very end of Oct, the first days of Nov (and just before the swiss vote for the options calls). Does this sound like i am scared? ๐
Best to you,
LPG
LPG,
Just confirming ๐
Glad you are positioned.
Excellent stuff. I am also one of the people who are convinced that gold has bottomed and rising together with the USD. The action in the gold stocks has changed and my PM portfolio is doing great….rather than the last few years of one step forward, two steps back it is now two steps forward and one step back. It has been many years since this has happened. I think the key to the new action is that volume is up and big money is flowing.
The bullish gold miners percentage shows the change better than anything else. It shows a swing in sentiment and taken together with the large volumes in GDX and GDXJ, I have no doubt that the market has finally turned.
Here’s a look at the bpgdm that includes the 2008 low. Note that it currently has plenty of room to run before excessive bullishness makes the sector dangerous.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$BPGDM&p=W&yr=7&mn=0&dy=0&id=p28046751388&a=384167210&listNum=1
PUTIN, will ask for physical gold for his paper future contacts sometime this year. Hopefully early
It is a gold stampede! Or a gaggle of gold buyers.
https://www.bullionstar.com/blog/koos-jansen/chinese-lunar-year-gold-buying-frenzy-has-started/
“Gold is anticipating the coming drop in the dollar” — Gary Savage
Gary, that’s an excellent observation. Its the best reasoning I have heard yet for why gold has not been falling very hard even as the dollar soars. Seasonals might actually be playing a role and traders who are keen to catch the usual upsidein metals this time of year may indeed be positioning based on a belief in a dollar reversal. So I am not alone in that thinking after all….. Hooray for me!
Good to see you also noticed what you are calling a triangle formation. Yesterday I was pointing it out but by my reckoning its a pennant. Apples and oranges I suppose…..it suggests a breakout could be coming. I am most interested to see if we run above 1280.
You simply just want to find the excuses why gold does not fall as dollar rises as you predicted and ignore the hard fact that US FED has quintupled the money supply. This fundamental is what keeps gold afloat while they have done everything to suppress it.
People always talk about the inverse relationship between the gold and dollar. I feel it is funny. I am not sure people are not intelligent or just ignorant. By word dollar you mean US Dollar index I guess. If you look at the US dollar index, you can see they are composed of seven Western currencies which are all heavily printed. They have nothing in common with gold. Gold is not one of the components even. As long as people treat both gold and dollar as safe haven against their currency devaluation, both will rise together against these paper fiat currencies. The end result is gold not falling against the dollar. There is no secret here. Gold should be doing better eventually since dollar is printed and gold is not.
All the gold falling after QE3 is due to the manipulation and nothing more. Now they are doing to oil.
+1 Lawrence. It’s funny that Marxist paper provides so much comfort and enjoys so much confidence. Oh well, it’s no surprise the majority does nothing but lose money in the big picture.
Not with USD, we didn’t ๐ …..but I bet you did.
As an aside, this whole +1 thing is so ummm, how shall we put it……lazy?
I really meant to say vacuous. But I didn’t want to hurt your feelings. ๐
Funny, you got very upset over a year ago when I alerted you to your own vacuousness.
Using the +1 to show agreement is simply efficient, but I can’t take credit for starting its use here. Are you calling LPG lazy and vacuous?
No, just you. I like LPG.
Actually, i am quite lazy, while after been often told that I lost my mind, I am kicking off 2015 with a new perspective on life and am thereforemstarting to consider that i am vacuous too. ๐
Best to all,
LPG – L&V
Lol +1
-1 Birdman re: the lazy thing. ๐
LPG
…and lol +2
God will punish both of you by falling below 1200 starting Monday. I just spoke to him!
God’s going to fall below 1200 what? Chickens? Eeewww…
You know what I meant. Anyway, that’s how it looks right now. We get a gold decline Monday back inside the channel to around 1200. Whether it is Gods work I really don’t know. But the gold bugs will be punished anyway! ๐ And boy, you guys really deserve it.
I thought Gary’s analysis was spot on, Lawrence. What he is saying in effect is that collectively the actions of the markets participants are holding gold afloat because enough of them believe the dollar should decline soon. That sounded like a great explanation to me because it refers to sentiments and crowd behavior. Gary makes some pretty good observations……so i not sure what your criticism was really about.
I don’t agree with his observation. I feel it is because both gold and dollar were treated as safe haven now. If US dollar does not drop in the near future, I don’t think gold will drop either. With his theory, gold will drop.
You know in the last few months last year, how hard the bears had tried to shake gold market. Several times, the gold was suppressed in nose dive fashion and only ended UP in the matter of days or even hours. So I feel there is really no room for gold to go down much. $1130 is the lowest gold can go. I don’t believe there is resistance price but it should be a region, lower gold goes the buying becomes stronger.
One more speculation on my part. I read somewhere Soros got a lot of gold stocks entering the second half of last year and now he has little. He dumped most of them in the second half last year. Is he buying back now? Considering he is an insider, I would guess the plan was to push gold really low toward the end of last year but they did not succeed. I could be wrong but who knows.
Having lived through the gold market of the 70’s and 80’s……… This is not a new ball game just more of the same . I do think Rick Ackerman is on to something with his prediction of 810. Like Al, I’ve lived through all this short term stuff too many times . For those not sure, or afraid yo might miss, then maybe a staged buying campaign of gold and silver will work.
what does that mean? If we are just going through 70s and 80s again then “more of the same” means gold is crashing which is what is in fact happening.
all I know is that gold made an all time high today against the ruble.
nice chart
http://www.kitco.com/gold_currency/index.html?currency=rub&timePeriod=10y&flag=gold&otherChart=no
One potentially worrying thing is that the Japanese yen is forming a similar flag to gold. Even so, after the last one, the Yen fell much more than gold (between end of 2013 and end of 2014).
Two more of the set of interesting charts:
http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/gallery.html?s=%24GOLD%3A%24Xbp
Gold in GBP is the highest since March 2014 when gold topped at $1393, the 2014 high.
Gold in EURO is the highest since September 2013 after gold had its relief high at $1343, the mid-2013 high.
Substitute XEU for XBP in the link above,
Gold can go up with dollar. This has happened before. You guys are already failing to notice that dollar has went up and gold has not went down. Bottom in gold has been put in. There is nothing but up from here. Sorry you guys will be waiting on sidelines and miss majority of the move. But whatever most people miss bottoms and don’t get out of tops. Good luck.