Europe from an economic and social standpoint
Hour 1:
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Hour 2:
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Hour 1:
- Segment 1: Jeremy Martin discusses the upcoming 20th Anniversary Vancouver Resource Investment Conference on January 18-19, 2015.
- Segment 2: Eric Coffin, Editor of HRA Subscribers Services, chats about his feelings on resources and China’s role.
- Segment 3: Chris Temple of The National Investor discusses Europe.
- Segment 4: Peter Brandt of Factor Research discusses energy and precious metals from his technological standpoint.
- Segment 5: Jeff Deist, President of The Mises Institute, discusses Europe from both an economic and social standpoint.
- Segment 6-7: We wrap up the conventional and precious metals markets for the week with Gary Savage of Smart Money Tracker, Chris Temple of The National Investor, and Rick Ackerman of Rick’s Picks.
- Segment 8: Glen Downs, Chief of Staff for Congressman Walter Jones, discusses the Republican Civil War.
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Miles Franklin Interview — July 25 2014 with Bill Holter and Andy Schectman
Is that close enough? They had a guy with a name Andy!
http://www.kereport.com/2014/07/25/exclusive-interview-andy-schectman-bill-holter-miles-franklin/
Thanks Bird,
That was when the issue of the non compete agreement came into being.
It would be nice to have Andy Hoffman on. I read his article on goldseek quite often. I found his opinion echoes mine, mostly. However, I feel one of his idea is not good for this site. He thinks miners will get wiped out due to government suppression of gold price and never make you money. This site is funded by advertisement from junior miners. From a speculation sense, buying miners could be very profitable as well. For that reason, these two opinions will not co-exist very well. I am not sure it is wise to invite Andy.
Morning Doctor,
I know the folks there very well and I respect each of them.
A competitor of theirs is called Midas and Midas (also a top quality firm) owns Genises Communications. Genesis syndicates our radio show and has us in thirty markets. We have signed a non-compete agreement with Genesis who we have been with since 2002.
Both great firms but our allegiance is with Midas.
Make sense Al. It is business.
Seg 3 – High stakes at work over Grexit.
I believe grexite is a best thing which can happen to EU. This kind of union between rich and poor countries can only be held by force not a democratic way. Otherwise poor and irresponsible countries like Greece can suck rich countries dry. It has to be rich countries ruling the poor countries so they get a place they deserve and not be able to have a say before they get rich. This sounds cruel but it has been like this throughout the history
The EU is an internationalist experiment in erosion of sovereignty through economic coercion (e.g., issuance of debt). The best solution is the one that maximises self-determination. The EU should never have been allowed to happen in the first place. It is the lair of Van Rompuy and his ilk. Continued pandering to the EU by compromised officials and lack of meaningful mainstream alternatives is motivating people to embrace extremism.
Anyone remember that book “Europe on 5$ Dollars a Day”? It was written for backpackers who mostly stayed in Hostels and bussed across the continent. Well, if the Euro keeps falling like it has been and Europe gets deeper into its depression then those days will be back again.
The book was written in 1957 so five dollars today is equal to about 42 bucks in early 2015. That is after more than a 20 cent slide in the Euro these past months. How will a holiday look once we are at parity? Truth is that the Euro would have to drop to maybe 60 versus the dollar to make that 1957 backpackers holiday work again.
But you get the drift. Europe is close to being a great vacation getaway once more. So keep that idea in the back of your mind for next summer, and tell your kids to forget about Mexico….
I remember Arthur Frommner’s book Europe on $5 a day. It was an excellent guide for any traveler. I stayed at a lot of youth hostels and enjoyed myself immensely for about six months.
We’re getting old DT!
When your number’s up you gotta go.
Not my experience for my last trip to Europe. I spent far more than I would do in Canada. Any trip we have here looks like staying home.
It is interesting that the book was written in 1957 when $5 was equal to one-seventh of an ounce of gold. At today’s dollar value, the book would be “Europe on $175 a Day.”
Apparently, and sadly, even Martin Armstrong doesn’t understand how society would benefit from sound, stable money.
Matthew, with a debt based system, it is not possible to maintain stable money supply due to constant paying of interest. It has to be on a gold standard where debt is always defaulted away like in the 30s.
We have come too far, with elites created so much financial instrument especially the derivatives, Their ego of controlling the world and moving the world their way by abusing derivative market will also doom the financial market itself. Someday, the system has to blow up because even a small event can trigger collapse. The top is too heavy.
That is correct, paper can’t be sound money.
Armstrong lost credibility about two years ago. There is a sense that someone has reminded him which side his bread is buttered.
Europe is being ruined by psychopaths. It is on a very dark path. Visit as much of it while you can, before things get much, much worse.
On the other hand, European tourism to the US is going to be doomed if this trend keeps going. How is this for a travel guide title….. “America on 200 Euro a Day” ….. yeah, that should bring them flocking over in droves. Maybe this explains all the Europeans in East Africa lately. You can still find a hotel room for a dollar in small towns here. Now that’s what I call stretching your budget out.
Cory, I don’t quite agree with your supply theory about oil. You count shale oil as a stable supply on this price. It cannot be true. If this price does not cause financial melt down for some banks and cause the death of a lot of these shale companies, it will be miracle . I had a lengthy discussion with several friends working in oil gas in Alberta yesterday. The opinion is that large companies are cancelling all projects unless it turns immediate result. Everyone is quickly turning into survival mode in Canada. This will result in stop of drilling and construction and laying off massive amount of people. Since the corporation debt level in US shale is a lot higher than relatively conservative Albertan companies, the problem will be acute there. Since shale wells have very rapid decline rate, stopping drilling means decline of supply as well. The world is seeing about 1 million barrel a day increase in demand for the last few years. It is not likely for demand to go down, especially under this low oil price. Then supply will taper off due to the shakeout in shale oil. Oil sands projects get very high investment at the beginning and it is a lot cheaper to sustain, so shale will come off quicker than oil sands.
I am kind of agree with Eric’s theory about China consumption will support commodity price. From what I see, China is still importing raw material as fast as before. It is actually speed up in the last while. The problem of base metal is not demand. However, It has been too profitable to mine base metal for more than a decade, the supply has increased dramatically in base metals. I think copper production has been increasing between 4 to 8% a year. With world in mild recession, this is too much. A lower price will last for a long time to discourage any more increase of supply. However, it will not crash like people predict. It seems people cannot maintain a balance in their view of economy, either a boom or crash.
Bird, I don’t mean to follow up on your post. It clicked by accident.
I hit the wrong reply button all the time. Thank God you and I aren’t the ones with our fingers on the nuclear buttons.
I will think twice if I have that job. LOL.
Lawrence,
I agree that the price in oil has very little to do with supply and demand.
It has everything to do with unwinding the speculation and derivatives.
The reason why the news talks about dippy and demand is to Not let you know you have been hosed at the pump since 2009 ( pun intended )
Not dippy! Supply.
Funny, I read dippy and knew exactly what you meant.
Great roundtable discussion between David Morgan, Alastair Mcleod and Bill Murphy. 49 mins in gives you the summary of their topic – PMs in 2015 and beyond.
It all comes down to this question: what reason is there to own gold? no dividend: check. No inflation: check. technically in a bear market: check. international recession: check. Fear? This is the variable, fear. What are the odds of a major domestic catastrophic event or global event and what event could it be? Currency crises in the U.S? Nope, we have a rising dollar. All that said maybe gold will be higher in 20 years from now, but then again, maybe I’ll be dead. Who has time to wait for gold?
Me Tom, or my children/great grandchildren!
Sorry wrong post – see below.
I listened to it this morning Andrew, its good but not much in the “new” category for those that follow every “tick” lol
One thing tho, they mention again they don’t know where the metal is coming from, I find that odd, for years people in this industry don’t know where it comes from.
Somebody sure does and their not letting the info out to the public.
There are large stockpile in gold and silver. Gold is almost infinite compared to the annual production. It is easily exchange paper with those physical metal if bankers arrange an favorable term for the holders. The confidence in bank and government is still high now. On silver side, the stock pile is smaller but still should equal to several years’ production. This cannot be done with oil since no one store large amount of oil.
Lawrence, why don’t the people researching this all the time know anything about these “large stockpiles”? Like Morgan Sprott etc.
They repeatedly state they don’t know where the metal comes from.
They know such as SLV
Nothing you can do if the system is not honest.
I feel Jeff Deist’s singularily negative Focus on Europe and the Euro may just be a might overdone, when the US and its resrve $ in terms of Overall debt is more than historically outstanding; It’s never going to be payed back- with or without Inflation, and so the mighty US $ is reduced to play a most dangerous game. A game of Chess against powers able to destroy the US economy by destroying the US reserve currency. Notwithstanding the military power of the US – a power only to be prolonged by the $-hegemony, otherwise it will wilt eventually lash out like a cornered rat, which sees itself cornered by the powers of the East.
A war, usually the last resort of failed politics in todays climate is potentially more severely apocalyptic than anyone, even the one worlders, may believe. Seems we haven’t been closer to total destruction since WWII. His Mentor Ron Paul should bring him up to date – geopolitically.
The Mises Institute may also go back to Friedrich v. Hayek in some ways and the late Kurt Richebächer’s essays and market letters, as well as the above interview of my young “Austrian” friend Ron Stoeferle.
Just my thoughts to bring some Equilibrium to a world still entrapped to yesteryears main Topics, while being plundered, both materially and psychological by the PTB!
Don’t let it happen!
http://kingworldnews.com/gold-market-finally-turned-leg-will-lead-parabolic-rise/
The trouble with The Fed is that they can’t raise rates to force up the money for speculators when you can’t raise rates to cool the economy speculation is extremely attractive and the volume of credit outstanding just keeps on growing. The longer the stock market keeps booming the more speculation will take place because of rising prices. Just saying!
HAHAHAaaaaaaaaa…”FITCH” Downgrades Russia to BBB-‘; How much did they get paid for that, or who was holding the gun against their head….BBB-….
Well if that’s the case , should they not then , Downgrade the US to DDD- LETS BE FAIR HERE……..Link is at Goldseek …or go straight to the ASS’s mouth.
I wonder if it matters to Russia Tony, China has already stated they gonna help Russia however they can. I think the Chinese can figure the liklyhood of being repaid.
Don’t they have their own credit rating system now?
And as far as the American currency rating, it should be triple A, anything less would be unpatriotic.
Speculation reaches a point and I believe we are past that point where nothing could cool the speculative bubble we are now facing, even if you could raise rates the speculator would be willing to pay any amount of money to keep the game going, such is the nature of a Ponzi scheme.
I think the conventional markets could go up considerably this week… or down considerably.
I have no idea which will happen.
OK, I know that sounds a bit ludicrous but I simply think things are so uncertain currently that the markets could move strongly one way or the other and the rhyme or reasons why they do so will be completely nothing to do with anything sensible – if that makes any sense.
#JeSuiCharlie
Yes Bob all of that makes sense. He who knows that he does not know is never a fool.
You fight family when certain members cater to the riff-raff. or your family doesn’t stand for anything.
HA HA ! DANCE ! CMC I HOPE YOU DON’T WORK FORE THE GOVERNMENT ? https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZQkFHqAC7kk
YOUR ALL DREAMING ! https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=THlaMUq6MKU
Smattering is controlling ((( AL ))) DISS ! GOD AND THE EVIL ! WE NEED GOD !
Franky…….GOD is just a figment of peoples imagination…Until GOD proves otherwise……..Andrew might understand what I mean. The same applies to ALLAH.
Sorry irishtony God is real ! IN JESUS HIM GIVE YOU GRACE ! THE FEELING OF GRACE in my live is a blessing a momment YOU NEVER FORGETS ! GOD LOVE’s US ALL ! YOU TO IRISHTONY !
Tony and xx franky, you both make sense if that doesn’t sound like a cop-out!
Interest rates, especially at the short end of the curve, are at a high. I expect that rates are meant to remain below infation, meaning that gold has further to rally. When markets come off, rates should plunge into the negative, revealing the true outcome of quantitative easing, which is devaluation by aggressively pricing in negative rates.
http://online.wsj.com/mdc/public/page/2_3020-treasury.html#treasuryB
Therefore price might not be an indicator in bullion markets, but rather that interest rates, being below inflation, and remaining below inflation are a determining factor.
F6
What chart would you use?
http://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/Treasury-Yields-in-Perspective.php
The gold chart is missing here, but would make a very interesting overlay. Price aught to be the determining factor, but since interest rates aren’t a price per se, then bullion prices are a reflection of interest rates, and that they reside below inflation.
The hard part is determining exactly how strong inflation is without making subjective determinations, or perhaps that deflation is also a subjective a determination. A good example of how gold prices have bucked the deflationary outcome of a decline in the oil price, or that of the new trend in conventional markets is towards ever larger corrections, is that bullion prices have stabilized in a low interest rate regime, which is bound to decline.
Looking solely at the bullion price is probably erroneous at best, like trying to determine bond prices by looking at interest rates.
If you are not reading Marty you are really missing the boat.
http://armstrongeconomics.com/2015/01/10/gold-v-dollar/
Armstrong has some good points, I wonder how he would explain gold having the same purchasing power over the centuries.
I like his views, I just wonder how he would explain it.
He wouldn’t try to explain it; he would say you’re imagining it.
I thought the picture he posted of his idea of a gold bug was hilarious bb. It was perfection. A bloated head about to explode because it has gotten to be so overstuffed with rhetoric and circular logic. All that was missing was the usual venom and smoke that usually emanates from that camp of seething metals lunatics.
“Seething metals lunatics?” “Venom and smoke?”
What a vacuous drama queen! LOL
I am sure Bird has gold or silver or both. He just want to make fun of other people for their misfortune. He is too smart not to protect himself. However, true gold bugs carry a gold only attitude which could be harmful as well. For me, I am a silver bull and I believe PM is currently way under valued. There is a lot of money to be made. In case of financial reset, which is underway (for real), gold and silver is the only thing which can protect us. All the rest depend on your luck.
I believe one day Bird will come to some conclusions with Peter Schiff. But he will say Peter is wrong on timing, for which I agree.
Of course Lawrence. By the way, we don’t really have any of the crazy gold bugs here anymore but there was a time the place was infested. They were over the top extremist nut cases as I am sure you know. I am talking about the guns-n-gold crowd who were preparing for Armageddon and packing their basement bomb shelters with canned tuna and dried rice. The difference now is that most who come here to talk abut gold are genuine investors who seek profit opportunities. Most seem to be diversified in other assets. They are quite unlike the crowd of stackers who were prepared to say absolutely anything to further the cause of metals no matter how stupid it sounded.
And about Peter Schiff? No Lawrence, I really doubt I will see eye to eye with him anytime soon because he is on the opposite side of the philosophical argument. I won’t listen to a word he preaches anymore nor do I bother with his articles.
I came here too late to see any fundamental gold bug I guess. I see some strong believers but it is OK. I happen to favor hard asset too. As for Peter Schiff, he is a pretty common sense guy. My critique is that he relies too much on fundamentals and not considering everything takes time and nothing is perfect even for things he likes such as gold standard. He also does not consider government manipulation and take something happening which fits his prediction as fact. One example is the current oil price. He believes it is because weak economy, opposite to what I see. However, on the big picture, most of his predictions will come true except not on the time frame he likes to see. One being US dominance comes to an end in the future and this is the making of US itself. I happened to read his Crash Proof and got out of banks in 2006-2007 and allocated more on PM. This prevented me to get hit hard and prepared me for the hardship in 2008. However, I find there are a lot of rumor and misunderstanding about him. Media is definitely not his friend.
Lawrence, I don’t believe that Bird has any gold at all. It wasn’t all that long ago that he boasted that he was glad he didn’t.
That is true. I sold everything at the top. 🙂 You on the other hand waited until 1800 to catch on….sorry to hear about that Mr Technical can’t read a chart straight guy!
First, BS. That does not line up with context of your boasting.
Second, I started selling at 1800 on the way up, not on the way down. My highest sale was 1910 and I bought some back on the initial plunge, then sold again as it approached 1900.
Third, and this is off-topic, have you ever noticed that your posts only lose value as they grow in length? Just wondering (well, not really). 😉
Admit it….you can’t read a chart. You have been calling for higher gold for 18 months and it has been dropping the whole time. And no you did not say you sold on the way up. You did however say you don’t buy gold. So you are probably not really qualified to express an opinion on it anyway.
Bird,
I’ve heard that saying before “I sold everything at the top and bought everything at the bottom”. I have not come across one investor/citizen at grocery store/family functions/neighbors etc because everyone is a winner 🙂
North Dakota Admits Half Its Shale Regions Below Breakeven
While talking heads and TV personalities reassure the investing public that low oil prices are “unambiguously awesome” for everyone, it seems the cracks in this narrative are starting to show. From falling wages, surging job cuts, plunging rig counts, and crashing capex, it’s becoming a lot harder to ‘pretend’ that everything’s fine. One wonders, when the companies themselves are slashing workweeks and cutting rig counts, when will ‘investors’ believe… perhaps now that Lynn Helms, Director of the North Dakota Department of Mineral Resources explains to the House Appropriations Committee that at least half of its shale regions are already below breakeven.
Does it spell bail out? Government starts to get involved so soon?
It spells bail out. The banks are back to doing God’s work. America is to bless the derivatives gone bad.
Lawmakers Attach Wall Street Deregulation To Omnibus Bill
http://www.ibtimes.com/lawmakers-attach-wall-street-deregulation-omnibus-bill-1747742
What can I say. This is what I thought when Saudi decided not to cut production and openly challenged US oil production. I was sure Saudi was used.
I guess it is time to buy some ill stocks
Oil stock not ill stock.
They claim they are not being used. Wondering what the agreed on price is?
Saudi Prince Warns “We Will Not See $100 Oil Again”, Calls Anti-Russia Conspiracy “Baloney”
Speaking to his favorite money-honey, billionaire Saudi Prince Alwaleed bin Talal told Maria Bartiromo that the negative impact of a 50% decline in oil has been wide and deep. As USA Today reports, the prince of the Saudi royal family said that while he disagrees with the government on most aspects, he agreed with their decision on keeping production where it is, adding that “if supply stays where it is, and demand remains weak, you better believe it is gonna go down more. I’m sure we’re never going to see $100 anymore… oil above $100 is artificial. It’s not correct.” On the theory that the US and the Saudis have agreed to keep prices low to pressure Russia, the prince exclaimed, that is “baloney and rubbish,” adding that, “Saudi Arabia and Russia are in bed together here… both being hurt simultaneously.”
Two things were suspicious. Saudi prince had a long visit to China and John Kerry had several visits to Saudi Arabia before the oil crash. It is government driven. Off course Saudi does not offend Russia and China, it is suicide.
The gold tent poster charts indicate gold could rally to 1310 short term. Other charts indicate a final low in September 2015.
I took advantage of the lower yen and had a skiing holiday in Japan with also 4 days sightseeing in Toyko. What a magnificent country Japan is, oh and the skiing was good too.
I totally agree Biggus.
Japan is a fabulous country to visit.
Beautiful countryside, very clean Cities, incredibly polite people.
I look forward to returning there for another holiday sometime in the next couple of years.
Cheers.
Position: short XME, Long February and March GDX puts, long dollar, long banks BAC, C, and GS. long cash.
Buy radar: OIH, Emerging mkts, GOOG.
Short radar: gold, small caps
This is not the time to buy GDX puts.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=GDX&p=D&yr=1&mn=0&dy=0&id=p26095423323&a=384422366
I think it is very unwise to short gold (and especially silver) here. The reason is clear. Printing money will cause more money to chase same quantity of things and the things include gold. The pressure should build up more and more until confidence in fiat fails. Gold has successfully resisted bullion banks’ downward manipulation for a year and half and proved that any sharp move downward resulted in a bounce back. The down side is very limited. At same time, Japan is printing money, Europe is going to printing money and US will start printing money again ( some people suggest that they are secretly printing, which is to be proven). Even China is printing money. The system is not sustainable if no money is created. Printing money without inflation is any government’s wet dream which God never award them The demand in the East is extremely strong which results in net drain of gold from US and Europe to Russia, China and India. The amount the Western government own is very limited.
Also Bank remain to be seen whether they can withstand the hit of shale oil junk bonds.
I think the term Black Swan is being used incorrectly. I read the orignal book, and a Black Swan is something unexpected and “out of the blue”. Europe, China, and Russia are known risks. The closest thing to a black swan I have seen is the collapse in oil prices, which no one seemed to predict beforehand. A perfect example of a black swan would be waking up tomorrow to find out that India accidently launched a nuke, or some nuclear plant in Europe melting down and taking out a major city with it.
If the dollar moves back down (euro up) then oil should respond by reversing its declines. Actually, oil prices led the dollars move higher by starting to fall in June last year.
The dollar began its ascent in July. The moves both experienced were equally extreme though and many did not expect it to happen. That is not to say all did not see it coming. As I mentioned before there was chatter amongst the currency traders because they are the ones who watch the pairs most closely and they noticed a trend shaping up almost immediately.
Anyway, I am still waiting for the next change. The euro might have hit an interim bottom and be ready for a bounce. If it has it could upset a lot of other trades in various commodities, gold, the Canadian dollar etcetera.
Meanwhile, I think Monday will be a strong day seeing stock markets advance and it will be the beginning of a round of declines for gold and silver. The dollar should be soft. That’s what I am watching for anyway.
You keep focusing on gold and your missing the big picture. With all do respect put your goggles on as miners are leading the way since November bottom. Your tune is getting old. My miners have broken out big time. working on tripples all the while you guys are preaching lower gold and sidelines. Sidelines= scared/unsure/rattled/don’t have a clue. Im sorry for harsh words but we have begun a move higher of which i keep stating many are already behind.
*Don’t focus so much on gold
*Focus on HUI
*Focus on XAU
They are breaking out.
My post was about the dollar, euro and oil relationship. Maybe you are fixated on seeing things that are not there. Hey , how about that super -pressurized and ready to explode gold bug head posted by M. Armstrong the other day. It has only been up a few days but it’s already become the classic image to define a stacker 🙂 I printed a copy out just for fun and put it on the wall. Ha Ha Ha!!
Picture of a Goldbug — Armstrong Economics
http://i2.wp.com/armstrongeconomics.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/01/explodingheadmont.png
Don’t know why my first reaction it is US government. Gold bug is a lot smaller
Bird,
My most impressive call to date is wti oil..It dates back to last year when you and gary were bullish. So me being fixated on things not being there? CMON :).
Also you keep thinking im a gold bug when so many times I have been bearish clearly stating at one point we will break 1180. I only see and react to what the charts and trend and overall sentiment is telling me.
For the longest time it has been telling me that all these muskateers,al,cory,avi,bird,etc etc are on sidelines and that=a market where so many good minding thinking folks are scared and unsure. That=they have created the perfect storm for higher prices while everyone waits and is hopeful of prices coming back.
I agree, Bird
Metals are at a break up or break down point. Monday’s trade will be interesting for sure.
The USD might have topped Friday , maybe?
Perhaps Chartster. As you know that was my call at year end but so far I am frustrated over this issue of timing. The Euro has now hit a major support though so it is maybe….just maybe that we have reached the point of a meaningful bounce.
I just read elsewhere (Zerohedge?) that the long dollar trade is the most crowded of all trades so far this year. Doesn’t that sound to you like a big juicy steak waiting to be eaten!!! Ha Ha Ha.
Just a matter of time.
Chartster,
If we don’t break down soon your credibility is already out the door. You have done nothing but to try and scare investors that come here out of there positions.
When will you man up? Monday gold will just mellow out. Back and forth maybe down a bit then up. Who cares the miners are still climbing up. Don’t miss out.
Hi Glen, if you haven’t seen them yet, and are interested, I put up a few charts under Chris Temple’s Friday interview.
Thanks Matt I will take a look at them.
Lots of folks long in metals and short euro too…..
Head fake maybe??
You have been wrong since last year before november! lol
Just got an update from my trusting sub guy. Oil to see low $40s maybe in the 30s.
Blue chips have not suffered and not much for downgrades. But it should come with good long term ops. When gold was 1200 was predicted to goto possibly $2000 then blow up into a major minor bear market. And it has. More downside in the years to come. Sell on any rally’s and switch to oils. There is huge details in why but not a liberty to share. Before you say BS we were in at the bottom of one of the best bull markets in the DOW in history and just pealed a pile off at the highs. Good luck!
Dollar drop and a metals drop? Hmm
Hard to call tomorrow’s moves man..
Certainly can’t call the day to days. Bigger pic
Just so you can figure out who butters Marty’s bread:
Three men might be credited with the invention of the OTC derivative in exactly the form it is applied today.
Those inventors are Fred Manko, John Edelman and Martin Armstrong.
The man this article should consider interviewing, if he could be found, would be the super geek John Edelman.
John walked away from a low security prison. His reward was the invention of the OTC derivative, near Lake Placid in the Adirondack in the early 90s as mathematicians began to issue their formulas on relations of varied but not the same interconnected indices between trading items.
The general thinking is that John Edelman suffered from depression which resulted in his actions, but others think he focused on his invention, the OTC derivative and new mathematics, as an opportunity of a lifetime for financial firms.
Inherent in that opportunity was the present death of capitalism.
After being around more than 50 years and knowing people produce an asset, this is the asset that I AM TRYING TO GIVE TO YOU FOR FREE, IF YOU HAVE THE FORESIGHT TO GRASP IT.
DO YOU?
There are those of you betting a fortune that I am an ass. You are going to lose yours.
Jim Sinclair’s Commentary
I think you need to do some research on Sinclair’s credentials….Hes another gold pumping idiot.
He did call for 1650 gold when it was below 300. Did anyone else?
For such worshiped guy, Armstrong makes some incredibly idiotic assertions and then makes no effort to prove them. He knocks the hell out of anyone with an opinion and then proceeds to shower his readers with his own. Doesn’t anyone see the humor? It’s no wonder that so many of his most vocal and loyal followers are obviously illiterate when it comes to money.
FYI, “gold pumping idiots” are STILL way ahead of Dow pumping idiots since stocks put in their REAL peak in 1999-2000.
What Martin’s predictions bother me is not the prediction themselves but he is not giving true reasons. I cannot derive same conclusion with the reason he give me. My problem is that I cannot follow anyone blindly, I have to see logic. I think it is my problem.
One of his prediction matching his reasoning is gold going to 5000, which I can see why.
Yeah Matthew, the once in three decades gold bounce. Big deal. It is a fact gold has not held a candle to stocks and dividends across time. Don’t you get it yet?
Gold has merely held its purchasing power in real terms.
That’s the whole story since the time of Julius Caesar. But you had to have something else if you wanted to speculate and make a profit over and above and you certainly needed something else if you wanted interest, rents and a dividend.
Your lump of gold buys you now almost exactly what it bought 2000 years ago. That represent s zero real growth in two millennia. All you constantly rant about is the one or two speculative periods in the modern times when gold and silver went parabolic and you always neglect to mention that they returned again to their historical mean.
Remember that little story about a good quality mens suit and an ounce of gold?
And since you like irony, lets just point out that when you trade options, buy and sell mining stocks and invest in gold futures what you are really playing off is currency, not gold.
Gold represents ownership of an asset that pretty much guarantees no real growth over the long run. It may be stable but it is a fools investment for those who imagine real gains unless they understand they are speculating against their own currency.
Think about it for a second. You want 10 baggers so you can get more dollars! Duh!!
“He did call for 1650 gold when it was below 300. Did anyone else?” — Matthew
EVERYONE was calling for higher gold when it was at those low levels. Not just Sinclair. Don’t you read any other blogs? It was obvious as hell it was at a bottom. You did not need to be a genius to know it was going back up. Didn’t you know?
Seriously….did you need Sinclair to tell you that?
Re: “EVERYONE was calling for higher gold when it was at those low levels.”
-Higher is not the same as 5+ times higher.
-EVERYONE? NOT. Most were “buying the dip” in the Nasdaq/S&P/Dow. Lol
Armstrong told his subscribers to get out of gold like at 1500.. Gold when on to rally to 1900..
People keep bending over and taking it in the rear end by marty. I suggest you look at all his calls not just the ones you like.
Yes a number a people called gold to go to 1500-2000. It’s the fools that contuned to pump it at $1900 and still do to this day. Sorry it’s a bear and far from overseas. Most of these charlatons belong in jail.
No one was calling for 1500-2000 gold in 2000-2001. Why don’t the paper pumpers belong in jail after the Dow plunged 89% versus gold from 2000 to 2011? One reason, the masses are too stupid to know what just happened to them.
I don’t get it. What about the butting of bread? That was how your post started but it ended with crazy comments from Jim Sinclair.
Just to be clear Matthew, an ounce has gold has not produced a single pennies gain in absolute terms in 2000 years. You cannot refute that and you never will. Gold is absolutely profitless unless you begin to accept it is really fiat dollars you are playing off.
So you need dollars or the game won’t work. That’s why you are in this racket. Dollar profits.
*Crickets*
Finally a comment that Matthew has no answer for. Trapped like a wet rat in his own convoluted gold arguments and this time he cannot find a way out because there is no answer to the facts that can be spun to make gold something that it is not.
You got beat buddy.
You are ridiculous. The role of gold/money is not to provide speculative gains, but to provide a store of value. Yet, thanks to gains in technology, efficiency, etc., gold absolutely does buy more now than it did in the past. Here’s one easy example: A Ford Model T could be purchased for about 30 ounces of gold when it was new. Today, 30 ounces will get you a pickup that is FAR better and nicer in every way (capability, reliability, durability, efficiency, comfort, etc.).
By putting accuracy and facts ahead of your ego and pettiness, you might avoid making such foolish comments in the future.
Re: “So you need dollars or the game won’t work. That’s why you are in this racket. Dollar profits.”
This comment is too idiotic to bother with. Those who take you seriously will end up worse off.
“Yet, thanks to gains in technology, efficiency, etc, gold absolutely does buy more now than it did in the past”. — Matthew
————-
Perfect example! Thank you very much Matthew because you just proved my point. What you refer to is how technology moved ahead, not gold. Gold bought more not because gold shifted on the atomic chart but because technological innovation made goods cheaper.
That refers to investments, savings and how capital is deployed. The kind of work that is done most readily with a fluid currency. Money is what makes the world go round, friend. Lumps of gold do little more than preserve buying power and take up storage space but they are not an investment whose hallmark is defined by growth.
You know, I think we are finally getting to the heart of the gold matter here. You cannot even respond to the basic point which is this…….
Gold has not produced a dividend or an interest payment nor materially increased in value since the time of the Roman Empire except in the case of rare or collectible coins. But a lump of metal then buys no more or less then than it does now and therefore holders of gold have been cheated out of gains seen in all other asset classes.
The gold bugs have been exposed. And they are all naked!!!
No, I proved you to be full of you-know-what. I wonder if a single reader agrees with what you just wrote. I don’t think you can be helped.
Interesting in that the guy that created the product that will bring down the entire financial system is a god to some of you while the guy that advocates you protect yourself against men like Martin Armstrong and his ilk is an idiot.
You need to get your economic history straight,Bill.
And Bird,if you got to ask you’ll never know. In your case because you choose not to.
Sorry? You mentioned bread being buttered but did not follow up with anything that made sense. You pasted a quote from Sinclair. Why not just come out and make your point so everyone knows what you are talking about.
You think I am a mind reader or something?
It made sense to me.
Of course. That explains everything.
Matt…thanks for naming the derivatives creators. He has no problem pumping the digital money system. Your digits may get wiped out, if someone accidentally hacked the system.
His excuse for derivatives getting out of hand is moderation. So the folks that created the problem are suppose to fix it. Someone wrote he keeps moving the goal posts to fit his zig-zags.
Unlike most people who preach that derivatives will blow up the world, I concede that derivatives are in fact a vital component of furthering the world economy. The question has emerged as with all things – crossing the boundary of moderation breeds chaos.
http://armstrongeconomics.com/2014/12/28/understanding-big-bang-2015-75/
Lol when was the last time Armstrong made any money for you Matthew?
He’s changed his tune at times to adjust for present.
Don’t hold your breath on the system coming down. There nothing in it for anyone and the powers that be could adjust the rules at any time to suite the crisses of the day. All the gold goons were chanting that QE would not work,blow up the system or cause hyperinflation. Actually it worked quite well. Bob M is another dooms Dwyer that’s been wrong wrong wrong. The amount of fearmongering by gold pumpers destroyed any credibility they had. I for one bought a lot of gold and silver at the bottom and sold gold at $1450 and silv at $49. It’s done stick a fork in it. When a bullish concensous reaches 95% ish it’s a major top.
Bill, Matt is not me but I think we are equally critical of Armstrong so I don’t know where you’re coming from. As for the rest of your post, it is made of assumptions, generalizations, and bad analysis.
Surely if the USD goes down then gold and silver will rise as both become more affordable to those in foreign currencies?
Its about time we got some good discussion going.
Mathew is right about the truck being a better truck for the same amount of gold.
Good point.
Bird is right about gold not increasing and the game is more about dollar profit.
That’s why we gotta know WHY we own gold.
Bob, gold doesn’t change, its the currency dropping. (you probly no that)
But Bird is right, most people are playing for dollar profit.
Stewart Tompson is playing to increase his gold for fun and dollar profit.
Knowing why we own it and what it does is, actually pretty important I think.
That’s why I was kinda giggling at Als giggling at Sinclair.
Myself, Im comfortable with 5-10% physical, I guess if I wanted to throw the dice on gold I would find 1 of those 3x etfs, or maybe just buy a goldstock. lol
But that’s dollar or paper profit.
I like physical but paper is ok too. lol
Actually, bb, I’ve been valuing my junior miner portfolio in gold, not dollars, for many years. Longer term, beating gold is what’s important. The dollar can run around in the background and try to get my attention, but it really doesn’t matter to me what it does as long as I beat gold with the risks I take. The whole point of accepting risk is to end up with more. If you end up with a portfolio that is worth more dollars but not worth more gold, you’ve lost money.
In 1930, $1 million was worth 48,379 ounces of gold. At $1220 per ounce, that’s $59 Million+ today. $1M today is worth just 820 ounce of gold. Dollars are good for one thing— spending.
The Asians know The US currency without gold backing is worthless, they have a society where over 3000 years gold was the only insurance and security.
At least in China for 4000 years, gold has been viewed as treasure and silver as money.Gold was so valuable you can never use it to buy things. A few ounces of gold could buy you a house hundred years ago
I ditto that comment, bb
Excellent bb. I would agree that so long as we all know what we are really talking about when discussing gold is wealth accumulation and preservation of capital in a physical and transportable format we are all on the same page. But we don’t actually need gold when property or any other hard asset functions just as well. So gold is just one choice on a spectrum but it does have some unique aspects. One of which is a high relative value to weight. I think when we get to the heart of the matter what we are really getting at in discussing gold is savings. Savings make us wealthier and they offer us opportunities others don’t have. So it is a commendable attribute amongst this crowd that they invest in gold and perhaps that’s what sets them apart from the rest of the crowd at a time when the national median savings rate is just a meager 3%. I say, well done!
The minute I read you have 5-10% physical I immediately know which side your on lol.
Can’t fool me 🙂
Don’t say I didn’t try to warn ya!
And if you found out I was 90% farmland which side would you figure I was on with my 5-10% gold? lol
Gold? Up or down this week?
Down! Big time!
Why down big time?
What’s Big Time besides the normal options Friday games? Care to make a call on price?
When I read some of the divisive and pointed comments about gold and dollars from this weekend show I just don’t understand the single mindedness because this entire monetary concept is relatively easy to understand and use to your personal advantage. Most all of the important and relative information and the low level tools (Brokerages) with which to facilitate actionable activity have been made available to mom/pops in the modern electronic Orwellian world we live in.
I didn’t say it was an even playing field, we all know that will never happen, but we do have tools that can help to navigate the potholes and profit handsomely in the process.
I simply don’t understand why highly intelligent adults that are well versed on the subject matter as well as world and geopolitical events cannot find a more inherently balanced view of understanding, exploiting, investing, spending and owning paper dollars/assets and metal assets in their various forms.
Gold is the antithesis of the dollar, likewise, and the dollar is the antithesis of gold. Everyone here knows this. But even with their seemingly conflicting correlation of fire an ice, both the dollar as well as other fiat world currencies and gold actually hold a symbiotic relationship to greater wealth accumulation and wealth preservation. This understanding, even as counterintuitive as it may seem can play a key role in greater individual financial security and freedom both personally and geographically.
I don’t understand why a line must be drawn in the sand and sides taken when discussing this subject. People feel the need to draw ridiculous and meaningless lines of demarcation when it comes to paper currency and gold and silver when understanding the importance of utilizing them both in tandem is what everyone here should be trying to effectively harness, and use that dynamic knowledge within their everyday lives.
The subject of the dollar and gold and their importance do not achieve their value or worthiness in a vacuum. It’s not a question of either or, its a question of exploiting tactically and systematically weaknesses and imbalances with in the unfair insolvent financial structure as it stands today to further empower your ability to work within the system to your advantage and to potentially work outside of the system to the extent that you choose if you desire
Understanding that there are many ways to attain wealth and hold that wealth will serve all of us better in both the short and long-term. Using key paper and key physical markets in various cycles if done with intelligence, conviction, prudence, patience, dedication and of clear mind can help you provide for a diverse and well balanced financial and insurance based foundation of dollars/currencies, gold, silver, land, real estate, etc., in an ever changing financial landscape.
Sounds good to me Vortex. (that’s why I am a dollar bull!)
Bird,
I may not have explained my position well. I’ll admit that was a hard read with no paragraph spacing.
I am a dollar bull in the sense that the dollar is strong at this moment and may be for awhile. I don’t know how long that may last, but while it does I want to exploit that strength now if I can. When that changes in the future (and it will) and the dollar begins its long overdue down-trend I will be a vocal dollar bear and invest ahead of that trend as well. I already am prepositioned to a large degree because this all could turn on a dime.
Interestingly enough, I’m also a huge gold/silver bull at the same time as being a dollar bull. You see, I don’t think picking sides and defending a meaningless position like its going to change anyone’s thoughts on the subject is a badge of honor or smart. I think a more prudent endeavor in these deeply personal discussions would be in my opinion, teaching folks how to better exploit both sides of the physical and paper market paradigm to their advantage and use this time wisely while we’re still in a transition phase.
In the meantime, as the worlds becomes even more unbalanced and frenzied I will continue to utilize some percentage of my funds to invest in paper instruments to profit and accumulate dollars by selectively picking very undervalued equities such as gold/silver mining and energy stocks as well as some tech stocks when the right time and opportunity presents itself. I might even just keep some dollars under my mattress for the hell of it. But I will try to keep the currencies in motion so to speak.
Furthermore, an additional layer of diversification will come from my ability to continue to procure and store internationally gold bullion and some silver bullion in fully allocated physical form in multiple countries to satisfy my extreme emergency back-stop insurance plan for the eventual unknowns with multiple checks and balances of jurisdictions.
Last but not least, well thought out real estate holdings internationally that are paid off in full, with legal title in hand in overseas countries that respect property rights are just as important as any of the others points listed.
My apologies for running on with another long winded rant, I did not want to make this about me, but I felt I needed to expand my thoughts a bit and why I think bickering solely over gold/silver and the dollar is missing the point when a much greater and bigger view of the paradigm is needed now more than ever.
So those are just a few of my thoughts on a wide range of options that we all should think about. No turf wars needed………………………just logic and commonsense dipped in a little bit of general respect for each other. And I’m eating my own cooking here as well.
I’ve learned a great deal from all of you here and I appreciate all of the views and comments even if we don’t always agree.
V
My apologies the paragraphs were not separated correctly.
Mathew and Bird, treating each other with disdain only destroys your credibility, forget about it and move on.
Birds right Matthew is far far far to obsessed with gold. There’s a ton of assets that make gold look foolish over long term. It pays you NOTHING while it lies dead in a bear for decades at a time. It’s virtually a usless asset except in periods of distress.
Wrong Bill. It might appear that way to you, but what I am really doing is trying to correct complete BS when I see it. However, BM is interested in ad hominem attacks, not proving his case.
I will get involved with any asset when it looks right to me, short term or long term, but this is more of a gold site and gold/money is what MOST people are completely ignorant about —no matter their net worth.
Btw, isn’t the current period best described as one of “distress?” The Dow would have to rise to almost 55,000 to reach its 1999 high when measured in gold. Funny.
Be that as it may, DT, BM invites and thoroughly deserves my treating him with disdain. I personally don’t measure anyone’s credibility here based on what they think of others, but there’s no doubt that some do, and that’s ok.
That’s funny, I was talking about gold and the Roman Empire but you are talking about me! Kind of cute don’t you think? It might just be love.
If only you could grasp that you should be impressed with gold for holding its purchasing power since the Roman Empire. Instead, you shockingly and embarrassingly knock it for achieving what no other money or money substitute has.
Again, those who take you seriously will be worse off.
Scientists and Investors Warn About Artificial Intelligence
http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/3d2c2f12-99e9-11e4-93c1-00144feabdc0.html#axzz3OcIlHI00
WTI OIL=35-40
Should close arounf 38-42 by Friday then next week we will get the bounce and then back down for a final blow in the 30’s..Then base for awhile.
I’ve been bang on with WTI Oil since last year! Anyone in here besides Matt and lawrence notice? Do you even care lol?
I will keep sharing my calls with the audience not for money or pride or anything else but because I just like to help folks and that is what I believe this site is all about to a certain extent. Al and cory do a fine job.
Chip in from time to time those who watch and give me your opinions or at least tip the hat 🙂 It’s nice to know that hard work goes appreciated.
I want to give you a big hug glenfidish. Do you feel better now?
So you think 38-42 by the 16th and then a bounce the following week?
You may be right. I think we are going to the 30s personally.
Bob, there is no way the world can turn out 93.5 million barrels a day for an oil price at 30s. I am sure there will be very little oil from Alberta in the next few years and half of US oil will go off production. This will be around 5 million barrels a day. There will be production cut in other countries like South America. The world only produces 75 million barrels a day oil from conventional source. Others are all very expensive sources like oil sands and shale and biodiesel. Even conventional oil cost is much higher than $30. Inflation made cost a lot higher.
On demand side, even my father knows China is buying like there is no tomorrow. People can see tankers coming in just by look at the ports. Other Asian and European countries will increase their purchase to take advantage of low price as well. This might be why Saudi Prince went to China before the drop in oil price. People thought Saudi might be trying to sell more oil to China or sell oil in Yuan. Actually it should be for a different reason.
I don’t believe that oil can stay at 30s for a long time and Obama also said low gas price will not long time.
Even though I noticed the price drop but I did not perceive that the price would go this low. I realized that US and Saudi might put pressure on Russia but I thought they will not push it so far to put US Shale and Alberta production on the line. Only after Saudi declared they will not cut production in order to force US to cut production and both US and Saudi added around 2.5 million barrels a day production on the market since late summer, I started to realize the plot. Fortunately I have been light on oil and not adding to my portfolio as I used to do for a under valued asset. I have been worried about US creating the oil down turn as in the late 80s and break up Russia. But oil was actually rising since Ukraine crisis and stayed up for a long time. So I thought the push down would not happen. Now I feel the rise in oil price early last year was to buy time for US to accumulate inventory and for Wall Street to go short. In a sense it was a black swan for the US government so it needed time. SInce we have come so far and US government has made its plot open, this low price will persist for a while until they weaken Russia or it is proven uneffective. At same time Alberta and US oil industry will suffer dearly. US side will be bailed out or acquired by big players and I am not sure about what will happen to Alberta. The planned lay off and project cancellation is extreme. Even the best run companies have decided to halt projects almost completely. Ottawa may have to do something if they still count on Alberta revenue. Since Steven Harper is from Alberta and if he loses Alberta he loses his party as well.
However, I will sell some of my PM and buy oil after a few month, maybe after June.
Glen,
I think you are right regarding oil. I think 36 by Friday close.
And gold wash this week too.
I also think the dollar and euro will no longer be an inverse trade by next week. ( hint hint
Dollar tops and euro keeps dropping
Bob,
Not sure if your being sarcastic?
Ya many calling for 30’s but my point is where is that on record before hand? Only a few and go take a look at the archives. Maybe you were one of them but I don’t recall. You are a big fan of gary’s are you not? Don’t take things personal im trying to help.
Maybe im reading you wrong lol..
Yes by 16th.. This is going to be a very big move down and weekly red candle for wti. 38-42.
You Americans are not very good with British humour are you?
I suggest that you buy the second, third and fourth series of Blackadder and watch them until you get it 😉
(Btw, debate on this site is not a d*ck waving contest 🙂 )
I gotcha! 🙂
No pissing contest here just moving along 🙂
Im expecting the same with CRB.. The low is coming feb/march for crb now and here. Not summer time.
I agree, not summertime.
Looks like this year will be different.
Matt,
HUI/xau breakout again. I have HUI targeting 220-250 on this move towards March.
Yup, like I said to Tom yesterday, now is not the time to short GDX.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=GDX&p=D&yr=1&mn=0&dy=0&id=p26095423323&a=384422366&listNum=1
What we might see is a move to 22, then back to about 20.30 at the double bottom neckline, and then to at least 24.
Good for us gold bulls.
Yes sir.
Agreed!
Looks like Hui gap will need to come back and fill..By the looks of things Hui could end the week between 188-198? Looks like end of month will be around that number then febuary above 200.
Come down HUI close the gap!
Holy piper CRB 3 point move down! This is indicating bottom is coming now..222.
Base metals are toasted since their prices were so high and a lot of excess production was added during the first decade of this century. It will take a long time for this excess to get worked out. However, oil and precious metals are limited by production and the overall cost of producing them is close or above the current price. I remember in 2007, to produce a pound of copper costs 60 cents and mines can sell at $4. So I dumped my base metal companies and never bought them back. Now it probably still cost them less than $2 to produce but they can sell at $2.5-3. The cost has to rise to match the prices in a long run either by price decline or cost rising. However, I will treat oil and PM in different category.
I’ll stick with my bowdlerized long term
oil chart from a few years ago until its
strategic up-trend support breaks down
conclusively ($US nearing its 94-95 gap).
FWIW
Fantastic chart!
What do you think about the gap? Fill today or tomorrow possibly?
I think it could take a little longer than that. Maybe something like this:
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$HUI&p=D&yr=1&mn=1&dy=0&id=p65500422122&a=364007429
I like it! I give it a 75/80% 🙂 nice charts
In fact Matt after looking at a second time I raise ya to 90%. 🙂 They say a picture is worth 1,000,000 bucks
I’m not going to put any odds on it, but the charts say that we should be in, not out! I will play the hourly and daily chart downside with options; I won’t be selling shares. Like I said on Friday, this chart looks fantastic:
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPTGD&p=W&yr=5&mn=3&dy=0&id=p80939975675&a=374056948&listNum=1
$GDM (Gold Miners Index) huge bullish wedge:
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$GDM&p=M&yr=20&mn=11&dy=30&id=p44356350728&a=377853726&listNum=1
Gold price comes close to the price of pre-crash level before April 2013 in Canadian dollar. Now at 1465, about cnd$100 lower still.
This is what matters for me.
I feel oil price decline in oil now is not US manipulation only. It comes more with the delevraging and sell off of oil position by funds. A lot of these funds and banks will be hit hard. I hope US government did not unleash something they cannot control.
S&P GSCI Commodity Index
Buy low, sell high!
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$GNX&p=W&yr=7&mn=11&dy=0&id=p99279312582&a=380003501
Respect. To all
Craig @ TFmetals report came out with another great article.
How They Did It
By Turd Ferguson | Monday, January 12, 2015 at 12:13 pm
The Vaults of London are empty. The GLD is being drained. Eastern demand remains insatiable. So how did The Banks manage to maintain the paper price downtrend in 2014? It’s quite simple actually.
Before we get started, please go back and re-read this post from April of last year. No, the fractional reserve bullion banking system has not yet collapsed but that doesn’t mean we’re not still headed in that direction:
So, how did they do it? How have The Banks managed to cap price and maintain the downtrend, thereby managing sentiment and ensuring that western demand for gold has not returned? Again, per Ken Hoffman, what will The Banks do if western demand returns? From where will they get the gold?
As you can see on the chart above, my trendline is clearly valid. Each and every time price met or exceeded the line in 2014, it was almost immediately forcibly reversed and shoved back lower. This takes a lot of momentum-blunting selling but from where did all of this selling originate? The answer won’t surprise you.
Birds comment: Gold has not produced a dividend or an interest payment nor materially increased in value since the time of the Roman Empire except in the case of rare or collectible coins.
EXACTLY RIGHT BIRD!!! That’s what I’ve been saying. Gold fairly useless for the most part EOS. Copper keeps with inflation and a pile of other things. Matthew…your obsessed with gold man…LOL
Silly Bill, since when is money expected to pay a dividend? Do you believe that interest you earn on your dollars keeps pace with inflation? Do you not think it is pathetic that the Dow would have to rise to 55,000 just to keep up with gold since 1999-2000? So many people took risks and spent time choosing stocks only to get smoked by those who simply held gold.
I talk about gold, not due to any obsession, but because so many are so incredibly in need of an education about it. Of course, one needs to be humble and aware of their deficits before they can be taught much of anything. So, believe what you need to about gold and copper and Marty and Bird, but before you make another foolish comment, you might familiarize yourself with the Dunning–Kruger effect. Then ponder it.
You appear obsessed with protecting your ignorance.
One word by people from the east like myself. For the last couple hundred years, the west has reached great success and getting a high accumulation of wealth. This pay is by far higher than what people in the east receives with same amount of effort. This disparity is coming down quickly. Every time I go back to China I feel this change. People start to make more and more relative to me even my salary is increasing fast as well. If people can freeze this wealth, it is an achievement already. If gold is the asset to crystallize the wealth, it is wise to put some into gold. One day when the east receive similar salary with same amount of work, our saving in gold should worth a lot more since the price would be bid up a lot by people over there. If gold is 6000 years bubble like someone said, it likely continue bubbling for a long time to come.
E.g, if we can buy 1 ounce of gold with one day salary, people over there can buy only 1/10. However , when they get to the same salary, they will not be able to buy 1 ounce like we do now since there is not that much gold. So the POG should rise that they still buy around 1/10 of ounce. What can we buy with salary at that time, well ,1/10 ounce. We will feel nice about our past decision to buy gold believing we made wise investment. Actually we just freeze the wealth to take advantage of better pay now.
No silly you Matty. Ive got 1.2 million cash and its making 3% while deflation is rampid. Gold is not the best hedge against inflation. Its more a crisis tool… Do you know how much more Ive made in the last 6 months against gold and oil????
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