Doc is positive on gold and negative on the markets
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BB; I’ve been purchasing HL and added to my position early this morning. I also added to my position with EXK. I might add that I purchased more of SAND along with other stocks. I also added to my position on AUY. AUY should move higher to at least $5.30 minimum. BB, I’m not giving investment advice but just giving an indication to what I am personally doing. I might add that I also added to GDXJ and GDX.
BB; I also am purchasing SLW.
I mentioned awhile back, if a person had the cash an option is to buy the entire kitco list, the prices are so low the entire list will move together.
Real evidence of that today.
Interesting tho, my producers that make money are doing better than those that lose money (not that losers are not rising)
My point of course, when gold increases pretty much all goldshares will make money, the question of course is which ones will be the better money makers.
Doc,
Good to have you back and more delighted you are buying ๐
All the best to you and your family. I have an upside target of 1350 gold before a meaningful correction.
Iamgold is the perfect miner to look at on a chart and see where the sector is headed. Why? Because Iamgold was one of the first if not the first to start crashinf in 2011. I know my miners ๐
Glad to hear it, Doc. as I also own SAND and AUY and SVLC at higher prices.
BB(I am not ” bb”)
HI Welkom Beck Richard ! Don’t worry Mario Draghi will spoil the GOLD party COOL IS THE WAY ! BUY BUY COOL Don’t Hurry !
Xing; yes, you’re correct. We might have a very nice run in the PM stocks for a few weeks and then a pullback. In my view, this is not the beginning of the next big move but a basing move that will take us higher and give us stability in a lot of the better quality miners.
Have the goal posts moved to match the Zig Zags?
Gold โ It is not finished until the fat-lady sings – Zig
QUESTION: Hi Martin
All the goldbugs are out screaming the low is in ad gold is rising. Why is it rising with all the deflation? Should we be double checking something here?
thanks M
ANSWER: When they scream and there remains dead-silence, it is not finished until the fat-lady sings, as they say about operas. The screamers are those you have something to sell.
http://armstrongeconomics.com/2015/01/12/gold-it-is-not-finished-until-the-fate-lady-sings/
Why is it rising with all the deflation? Gold and silver are money and can not be worth zero. Can currencies and securities be worth zero? Yes they can. With physical gold and silver in ones possession the value is the atoms of gold and silver and as long as security is maintained there is no counter party risk.
Article @ silver doc today.
With reports of 0.6 metric tonnes of gold sold in a day at a single Beijing shopping mall, the Chinese New Year gold buying frenzy has begunโฆ
I wonder if this has had an effect on the price today.
1/2 a ton at 1 mall, that’s huge, that 170k tons isn’t going to last long at that rate, lol
BB, half a ton is not record. I know the the Cai Shi Kou Jewelry centre in Beijing sold over 2 tons a day for several days during April 2013. I went to that store and it was crowded.
The culture is that men cannot show any stinginess to his girl friend and young wife when she wants something to show off. If he can afford it, he is obligated to buy. If not, he has to find a cheaper girl.
Hey Cory
Do you actually thing the gold bull market is going to make it easy for you. The job of a bull market is to make you and other investers like you out of the market, the Bull will let you in when it wants you in, and not before. That is why the technical side of the gold market is a must, you can’t trade on good feelings alone.
Peter
I don’t know if I agree entirely with you peter, I knew zero in the last bull (not that I know anything now) anyway, I made for me what was a lot of money.
I cant do anything with technical, but my shares today are up, simply because gold is up.
Ive claimed a few times, in a raging bull I look like a genius.
Gold is still in a bear trend,technically speaking.Stochastic is in overbought territory and price is flirting with the ubb (18dma).I cannot understand how you are so positive.Besides that if you see the daily log scale chart;price is almost touching the long term upper trendline from october 2012.You must be assuming that the bottom was in at 1130 to be bullish.
All of these guys are precious metals bulls and will more often than not feel that PMs are a buy. Miners had to fall 85% before Gary finally threw in the towel admitting that they are no longer bullish. That aside, they produce these interviews Kitco and Kitco obviously wants that bullish pump on the metals.
Bingo.You hit the nail on its head Tom.Kitco should be taken with a punch of salt because their agenda to pump up gold is crystal clear.The conflict of interest that they are in make them less trustworthy.
Not true. Kitco’s own Jon Nadler talked gold down for years. He was anything but a pumper.
Tom, an 85% decline in any asset class is more bullish than bearish right off the bat. Would you rather pay $100,000 for something or $15,000?
Horrible public sentiment is also bullish.
Different week, but back to my same boring “+1” ๐
Best to all,
LPG
Lol…thanks LPG!
If this is an arithmetic class: I’d rather have that $85,000 different in my pocket.
Matthew,
As you know I read all or your comments…excellent stuff man!
Thanks Marc!
Btw and fwiw, Marc, I have increased my position in Impact Silver by more than 33% over the last week or so.
I agree with u Tom, but these are good places to find companies to invest in when a bull happens.
Also, the conversations can be very educational, and get you a good laugh from time to time.
You could try Keiser, excellent interviews at times and its go bitcoin go. lol
bb the sentiment indicators are telling you the majority of the gold, and gold stock investors have packed up and left this market, they are very bearish in this market. The GOLD BULL has done his job. Only the hard core investors are left.
Good luck bb!
Peter
Peter
Peter, I no some people make money with technicals.
That’s good for them and listening about them might give a person a clue here and there.
I made what was/is to me lottsa cash during the last bull.
I lost lots in the bear, but I didn’t lose any money I didn’t take from the market, I still ride with what I took from the market.
My point is merely that a person really doesn’t need to no too much when a bull starts, common sense will take you a long way.
For those that feel they need guidance, I say subscribe to Mikey Fulp, its free, and if you put the time in, you can find what he does for DD. After you see that, you realise you can close your eyes and hit the buy button when he mentions something. lol
He is not for me tho, one of his criteria is his recommendations double in a year,
wwwaaaaaayyyyyy tooo slow for me, I want action.
But if you were to follow Mr Mickey, I have a sneaking hunch you would do just fine.
Doc:
Glad to hear your views again. Some of your buys are the same as mine, Auy, Hl. I also like IAG. Seems they’re all managing to keep the doubters on the sidelines which is where I want them to stay for a while longer. We’re climbing a wall of worry which means to me that there will be lots of pent up demand in the months ahead. I also like the fact that many of these stocks are moving in this slow, deliberate, almost stealth way…Most have a 9 day ema climbing towards or over the 50 day ema, which is a good sign. Also, I notice the HUI runs up but has trouble closing at the high on many days. That’s indicative of short term traders, capturing their nickels and dimes or the worrywarts who have a few losing shares, unwisely getting out on a short run-up. Anyway, I like what you say so keep talking. In a year or so maybe you can convince Al and Cory to jump in!!
One of the reasons that the PMs could climb for awhile is because the trade was so one sided. The COTs showed a heavily bearish position and I believe that we’re still in a short covering rally.
I haven’t seen the COT data in a while so I can’t elaborate in any manner on what Richard just mentioned.
However, I’ve noticed that these days/past weeks, we get $3-5 intraday pops out of nowhere once in a while (ex. today), which tends to suggest short covering to me as well.
GL investing/trading to all,
LPG
I noticed the small upwards “pops” , too. Short-covering is as good a guess, based on past performance. However, I’m asking myself: “If this is a short-covering rally, why is the trend so DETERMINED-looking. That is, why are there no quick, compensatory corrections after the small upwards “pops”? Why do they flatten, then consistently resume the slow upward climb.
In summary, I am not convinced of the “short-covering” rally in a bear-market argument any more. Iy really is starting to look like an upwards channel
Brian
Don I am a trader. It is about support and resistance , and I am not married to anything. Having said that, when you look at the miners they are trending higher, bottoming Nov.7, investors are expecting good first quarter results because of considerably lower oil prices and an extremely oversold miners market. To me, this powerful fundamental is confirning the technical picture. Again, I am not married to anything.
Happy investing or trading
Peter
Fundamentally speaking;lower oil prices are an indication that deflation is picking up and that’s a headwind for gold.Besides that dollar is gonna appreciate more due to the weakness in other currencies especially euro.If stock market starts rising again gold will fall because gold yields nothing.Of all people that I hear rick ackerman is the one who makes the most sense to me.He is a down to earth guy and he say it as it is.His gold target of 810 is very reasonable imho.
You really don’t follow the news. US government has declared that low oil price is engineered to punish Russia. It is no longer conspiracy theory since last week.
Obama can say what he wants.If you believe what obama says then I have a spaceship to sell.Obama is all crap.Oil has gone lower because there is no demand.Thats eco101.If you think that opec countries especially iran and venezuela are gonna accept a low price in oil to accomodate obama’s foreign agenda then again I have a bridge from us to uk to sell.
If you don’t believe a thief who claims he stole your stuff, you got a problem.
In a long run, price is decided by supply and demand but in short run it is by speculation. Have you heard about derivatives? Do you know that US joint with Saudi to over produce in the 80s to break the back of USSR. It was all documented.
One characteristic that you should have in politics is to say a lie that you believe in on purpose and say it with a straight face.
Not that simple. They lie when they need to.
You can say that all central banks have done their part to stimulate the economy and that now it was the turn of the opec countries to do theirs by lowering the price of oil.After all it is in the interest of all countries to loosen the grip that the recission has held on the worlds’s economy.
Doc hope you had great vacation.
Thanks, stewie; however, it’s great to get back and play with the charts again.
Doc,
Nothing wrong with talking to yourself. If you’re like me you like to talk to intelligent people, and listen to intelligent people talk ๐
Now, Gary; that’s pretty funny. My wife should be one of the most intelligent people on the face of this planet if that’s true.
And now for something completely different. Switch your speakers up!
are you still bullish on Theralase and Miraculins?
Keylime; I believe both fundamentally are speculative plays. Theralase probably has more long term potential. They both technically are still in good places. Both will be news driven. In my opinion, Miraculins has a shorter time frame to show us results then Theralase does. I still hold my posiitons in both. Just to show how news driven they are; one only has to look at the recent move in Theralase. It’s now settling down again and we’ll see what transpires in the future.
1244-1250 next stop!
You can bet on that!
I’m going to ruminate a little here. Normally, I make my decisions only based on technical analysis since it drowns out the surrounding fundamental noise. However, I would like to put on a fundamental hat here. As we’ve all noticed recently, the move higher in gold occurred in spite of the increase in the dollar. The dollar appears to be short term topping in an ongoing bull market. It also (as mentioned) appears technically that the conventional markets are really struggling with the volatility picking up—the conventional markets and gold have moved inversely and I believe that will continue. Markets always look forward. I believe that the conventional markets are starting to signal a recession in 9-12 months. Everybody is currently focused on “deflation” and that can’t be good for the PMs. However, Draghi is talking about massive stimulus in Europe due to the deflationary fears there. The conventional markets are probably smelling out the coming earnings drought for a lot of multi-national companies and energy companies. Also, the strengthening dollar along with the poor export picture are huge red flags for the earning power of the multnationals. Also, if the conventional markets start to head south and commodities and energy continue to signal deflation and a recession with all its’ attendant issues (falling employment,etc.) is back on the table, what awaits us in the future. Yes, that’s right. All this talk about increasing interest rates will drop like a stone and some form of stimulus will be back on the table. Sentiment will start to shift and folks will look to another safe haven besides the dollar. Also, the energy price drop will be a huge bonanza for some PM stocks as well as the decreasing currency play of some countries.
Doc,
Excellent points all the way around. The disconnect from reality is in full bloom.
There will be no interest rate increases for years to come. And even then the market will dictate that move.
Additionally, as you correctly stated, low energy prices are a boon for miners and the bottom line. Even the explorers that make no money view this as a gift. Goldโs nice run in 2015 has been a very nice move in such a short period of time. It may be a little late in this move to risk too much at this point but it will likely go higher for a few weeks.
I really would like to see gold retrace one last time sometime this year and fill its long-term 50% gap from the 1900 top. That would be extreme for some folks, but imo would set gold up for the absolute buying opportunity of a lifetime.
At this stage, we’re just not there yet for that type of aggressive buying.
If the gap is ever filled it would present a load the boat scenario of monumental profit potentialโฆโฆโฆ. it would be a get in and stay in framework for a multi year bull run, no matter what the volatility may bring.
Vortex, would you enlighten me again on the price level of that gap.
Doc,
I believe it should be give or take around $960. But some of the better chart guys here could confirm that number. There are a lot of very established and reputable commentators that are advising clientele of that number or somewhere in that general ballpark range being achieved sometime this year.
I for one hope it is achieved even thought I hold respectable quantities of gold and miners.
In truth Doc, Iโm willing to concede and admit getting anywhere near that low retracement number as things stand today with insolvent sovereigns across the western world and crisis events continuing to unfold, along with the shear volume and off-take of gold buying from the east and new gold bugs that will be coming on board the sector in the future may well result in achieving that number as nothing more than a pipe dream.
And that’s what make markets interesting. It’s taken me a few years to understand that what I think will happen often doesn’t happen—-that’s why I value technicals. They keep me from being rigid in my thinking.
Hey Doc, do you have a minimum target for gdx? I know not investment advice, just curious.
DF; GDX will run into resistance in the neighborhood of $22.80—–I would guess you would have to call that the minimum target then. However, I’m watching a couple of stocks that I’m a little more sure of where their minimum is and if they don’t reach it before GDX hits the above level, then the odds are GDX moves even higher.
Don C. I’m with you on the oil thing as well. If Obama or any country or person can make oil prices drop 50% like this then we wouldn’t have markets anymore. Everyone would be too scared to put there money in any market. I don’t know exactly what Obama said but nobody most certainly cannot crash a market like this. Perhaps Obama put in controls/sanctions by hurting certain influences Russia could make in the market but no one person or entity is crashing the oil market.
There is an oversupply of 1-2 million barrels of oil produced daily. We have a basic supply problem with no increasing demand. However, normally, in this situation the Saudi’s in the past would cut production which they’re not doing this time. This could be collusion between the U.S. and the Saudi’s. However, in the past the Saudi’s produced 50% of the global supply of oil but today only 33%—they haven’t increased production for years and probably feel it’s not their responsibility to curtail production and let others continue to produce at their existing levels.
Thanks, that collusion makes sense. In nutshell, the bottom for oil could still be a ways off. Any predictions for a bottom?
$25-$30 per barrel
That’s very possible—-as mentioned many times in the past, it appears commodities could bottom around March/April this year. If that’s the case, it would make sense that oil wouldn’t buck the trend—-looking at the oil chart, it could then certainly see that level.
Doc, it is reported that there is an increase of production by Saudi and US of around 2.5 million barrels a day since late summer. If Saudi keeps their promised production, it should at least over 1 million barrel less. Not sure where the US extra production comes from. If I chain all the events together, I know how this play out. If looks like a duck, behave like a duck, it is a duck.
If one follow efficient market theory, he can only buy high and sell low.
Lawrence, you’re correct about that. For the first time in a long time, the Saudi’s started to increase production in the beginning of 2014.
Lawrence, I might add that it’s been reported that “since the start of 2014, rig counts in Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, and UAE have surged (just as they did in the mid 2000s). It appears some of the OPEC boys are trying to drown the shale oil industry in excess supply.
I just can not believe that Saudi dares to challenge US. Their survival depends on US protection. Best thing they can do is to bargain for the best deal with US.
Obama has nothing to do and you can bet on that tom.The reason why oil has gone lower is because the demand has fallen and opec countries have decide to leave supply as it was.Regarding precious metals the bankruptcy phase is yet to come.Many junior miners will turn belly up irrespective of the cost of oil.We are not there yet but we are very close.It is the way it goes.Wash,rinse and repeat.Law of nature.The bloodbath phase could take us till summer of this year.
Agree with you on the miners.
I agree and also think the blanket phrase “the miners” really does not work for logical analysis. For example, a working gold mine with AIC of $800/oz will benefit from dropping energy prices by increasing profits (and share price). A junior explorer with 2 rigs and enough cash for 8 weeks will not benefit from lower energy prices.
Brian
I agree on the bankruptcy of many of the junior miners. The other shoe to fall yet is mergers and acquisitions. I believe this recent run in gold could continue but it’s not destined yet to set the barn on fire. I don’t believe that has a chance of starting until 2016.
Another fundamental for the PMs currently are all the potential black swans circling—-you can almost smell their breaths. Geo-political events have not affected the PMs for over 3 years now but that may soon change. I’ve always felt that it would eventually be a financial black swan that would prop up the PMs again—–look at the crushing of the oil/gas markets. Then look at the leverage of a lot of the producers in the shale industry and consider the high yield bonds backing them—then consider the derivative exposure (credit default swaps) and the big banks holding these instruments. Consider Greece and its’ elections and possible default along with Venezuela and other countries. The banks derivative exposure is even higher then in the crisis event of 2007-2008. I believe it’s a good time to buy a little more of the PMs and to continue to hold what you have as insurance—not investment advice.
Gold’s weekly chart is showing a decline in the ADX weekly momentum line, as well as an RSI boost above 50. The bottom was technically 1179.40, but we had to experience a denouement to follow-up, which took considerable time to accomplish.
I would expect to see robust volume in coming weeks.
$CAD gold price has broken out, and has a bullish RSI for some time now:
This gold price is 20% higher than the oft-mentioned ‘all-in cost’ of 1200/oz. Gold producers in Canada just got a 20% increase to their IRR.
Excellent point regarding the US$ AIC. I’ve noticed Canadian miners now showing AIC in both US$ and CA$
I’ll throw this out there. Rather than the financial Armageddon that most are seeing I would argue that low energy prices are economically stimulative. Let’s face it oil is the lifeblood of every economy. When it’s cheap economies do well (think 1982-2000). When it’s expensive economies stagnate and fall into recession. (2001 & 2008).
If energy prices stay low input costs for businesses go down, cost of living expenses go down, wages don’t have to rise and profit margins expand.
If oil stays low it might even bail Europe out of recession…
Also remember, as the price of oil drops, the demand increases (while the supply decreases). In other words, the current price of oil will not drop as far as you think. I bought my first block of UWTI today @ $2.98
Brian, it could be that with the commodities this time around that we have a pretty inelastic market due to the unusual times—-this doesn’t appear to be your usual grandfather’s supply/demand cycle.
Good thought. Do you think we have a commodity “QE”?
I tripped across this 7-page Gold/Silver prediction via Gold 321: G:$5000-$6000, S:$160-200. A grain of salt, but an interesting read with charts. Does anyone have an opinion of Ron Rosen methodology; what is the track record?
He’s been wrong a lot in the last two years, maybe this is his year.
Silver looks promising:
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SILVER&p=D&yr=0&mn=5&dy=0&id=p71180249302&a=384617687
Copper is at its uptrend support —which I don’t think will hold for long.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$COPPER&p=M&yr=13&mn=11&dy=30&id=p55192936244&a=368884587
Matthew, I feel copper may stay around this level for a while till enough excess production is worked out. I would not put money in copper for a few years.
My limit sell order for FNV at 54.63 didn’t fill today even though the price touched 54.64
I guess my million shares were too much to handle (Peter Grandich joke).
If gold opens $50 down tomorrow and FNV corrects 20%, I going to be grumpy!
http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/seasonality.php?symbol=FNV
I don’t think too many play the penny ponies, (except moi and Mathew) if the market for gold juniors breaks out the ponies will rocket.
I think you’re right on both counts (big surprise!).
Even with the extreme bullish fundamentals of gold and silver, most people will miss the opportunity since they look at the immediate past of the price movement as Rick Rule has pointed out. Somehow they believe more on what the market tells them instead of their independent thinking. A lot of people say market is always right and I would say that market is always wrong. It always tends to deviate from the real value. It is investors responsibility to find under valued asset and sit on it until it becomes over valued. I believe that silver is the most under valued asset of all except silver equities.
I agree, Lawrence. Emotional, linear thinking is a problem for most investors.
Btw, if I could own only one asset, I would choose silver —not gold, not miners.
Exactly what I think
With silver you can make stuff; with gold you can………… uh……..throw it at yer enemies?
Well it is about twice as heavy as lead! But seriously, that high stock-to-flow ratio is what makes gold uniquely well suited for wealth storage as it is the reason for its relatively stable value (it is more stable than any other asset in real terms). Owing to its low risk profile, it is negatively correlated to the economy and is, therefore, best during periods of economic decline/credit stress-contraction. It did very well against silver and oil over the last 6 months as a result.
Matt,
Looks like a possibility of filling hui gap? maybe we get two down/neutral days then the pop on thursday/friday. The other scenario is we turn up again soon and pop today/tomorrow then retrace thursday/friday?
Could be… what do you think of the lower gaps?
BTW, thanks M, I am looking at far more at weekly charts instead of daily charts; this helps in longer term and swing trading a lot. (;-)
If I didn’t trade (and/or had a life ๐ ), I would probably look only at weekly and monthly charts.
Dan doesn’t that weekly paint a beautiful picture?
It sure tells you that there is plenty of noise during the week but if you stay patient and with the trend, it’s to your advantage!
cheers
glen
Which one’s exactly? Daily/weekly?
Oops, I was looking at GDXJ (daily 12/30; 1/9). Think they get filled?
Matt,
To a look and the first of those daily gaps happened on 24th/26th open. Common when there is a holiday. What I like is that IMO they clearly look like a breakaway gap with very decent volume on the following day. The fact that they are daily gaps and you already know this means there less likely to get filled.
When I blow up the image “Chart” it shows a beautiful classic W pattern or double bottom of which tells the tale. Im not a fortune teller but i express that I believe strongly it’s up from here.
The one that worries me is Iamgold’s weekly gap which seems to be one of the only miners that I can find with such gap. When I took a closer look, lord and behold it happened in between thanksgiving “holiday” off day. Again this is common to happen. What I did like was the fact that is also had a breakaway gap with high volume and this all happened at a time where the company released news of the sale of niobium. That is an extra 500,000,000 on there books.
Hope this helps.
Forgive my first sentence lol.
I’ll think about it ๐
Thanks for taking the time; I agree with all that. Since that IAG gap is so far down and the stock has been so strong, I wouldn’t worry about it unless you get a reason to become worried about the whole sector.
This is true. Thanks for the response.
Today is a buying day…As Matt would say.
The 15th and end of month are paydays for most. Buying just before payday is prudent as you do not compete against the people living paycheque to paycheque. I am rebuilding my prudence.
This is a fantastic point! Never looked at it that way.
Man that is why I love this site
cheers
Dan
+1!
I am already spread a little thin but like the looks of this chart.
Long term=In
Short term=Not sold
CMON on Hui break down and fill the gap ๐
BNN will have a report on FCU (Fission Uranium) in a few minutes. New resource estimates out.
Silver looks strong today. Playing catch up?
I’d love for hui to go down and fill that gap and close back above 190..That’s all I ask santa.
Did you notice that it bounced off of the resistance line that I noted on the chart I put up last night (above)?
The silver chart (which won’t update until after the close) looks different than the SLV chart:
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=SLV&p=D&yr=0&mn=9&dy=0&id=p87260210846&a=384683617
Matt,
Are you referring the gold chart you put up and resistance around 1237ish?
Matt,
Yes i missed that chart of silver your talking about. Fantastic buddy. You nailed it lol.
Even your gold chart hit the resistance at 1237. I should have known better lol. I think thursday and friday we get the big pops, Today down and flat. Tomorrow slightly up above yesterdays close for miners and thursday gap up?
Matt,
Here we go crossing my fingers for hui gap fill. Its what I preferred yesterday when i asked you if it might fill today. I was hoping you said yes ๐
It does look like it can happen today:
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$HUI&p=D&yr=1&mn=1&dy=0&id=p26634904401&a=370482078&listNum=1
Hui looks determined to want to fill that gap..I think to many complaints yesterday ๐
It makes perfect sense that the bears and profit-taking bulls would sell at today’s high (GDX):
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=GDX&p=D&yr=1&mn=0&dy=0&id=p26095423323&a=384422366
The chance to buy the dip could last a day or three.
Agreed!
Lets move on chat to today’s comment board
Looking at stockcharts dot com the Point and Figure chart is looking positive for gold (and the USD index is looking positive for the dollar!) Weird. I don’t take that much notice of these charts but I take a note of them.
Here is a fun chart to show the relative performance of gold to a gold stock Randgold (ticker GOLD)!
http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/gallery.html?s=GOLD:%24gold
Not much action yet but let’s wait and see.
Doc, did you get a good tan down south? Did you gain any weight? Is it time to buy SLW, AG, AXU, HL, EXK, PAAS?