What is pushing gold? – Correct audio now uploaded
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Dang, Gary sounds an awful like Glenn Downs.
Hello Cory/Al,
Wrong podcats link. It’s Glen talking.
Best,
LPG
Maybe Gary has changed careers? :0
11.13 am EST You uploaded Down’s Closing segment from the Weekend Show, »NOT« Gary’s ”What is pushing gold” ..!!..??
Dang OIL and XLE getting crushed today.
Dang, some Saudi Prince is now saying oil could permanently stay below $100. Is that the most foolish thing you every heard? He can’t believe that.
Ebolan; you’re right—-“permanently” is a long time—-we’ve heard these type of “over the top” comments about other markets in the past. He’ll be proven wrong just like others in the past that make these type of comments.
Hey doc.
Hope the cruise was fun. What are you expecting to happen with gdx and gdxj now? Also, been watching TLTFF and TC. Neither of those 2 have been doing too well, but im wondering if TLTF looks good from here.
I know a Guy who has visited their trading room where hedges & deals short & longer term are made. Before ANY announcement/rumor is made it’s cleared with their trading room. I bet they have made a ton of money being short on the way down.
Not touching it till it takes out $1347. Buy stops at 1347.
Dollar to Da Moon!
I’m going to suggest not buying at $1347. A move above $1347 is just the signal that something has changed. Buy at the next intermediate cycle low after $1347 is breached.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$GOLD&p=D&yr=0&mn=9&dy=0&id=p34657143399&a=384543635&listNum=1
Gary, don’t change your opinion. The low after 1347 might be much higher than 1347. Gold may not stop there. People on the sideline may miss a lot of gains and capture gold at high.
+ 1 Lawrence
Side liners already missed 130% rise in JNUG since i called it few time i may add.
But no big deal. Lets talk about it. 🙂
Lawrence,
Almost no chance of that. It’s way too late in the intermediate cycle and traders are becoming too bullish on gold too fast.
Intermediate retracements almost always retrace at least 50-62% of the previous rally.
Maybe today looking at the current momentum!
Im wondering if people are buying gold as so many other assets are expensive.
Maybe everyone in the world has become “contrarian”.
It’s not possible for everyone to become a contrarian since you can not be a contrarian if you’re invested in the same assets as the majority.
Yes, gold is the cheapest of the major asset classes. Only a few get it; the rest will follow eventually only because they see the gold sector rising.
Silver might be even cheaper than gold ~ Brian
It is not maybe. It is.
Absolutely agree, Brian. I should be clearer. To me, gold is the asset class that includes silver. I like silver far more than gold right now. The gold/silver miners are the cheapest of all.
I think so too except I am scared of miners. Matthew is brave but I think he can make serious money.
Lawrence ~ Today,10,000 shares of Alexco @ $0.54 = $5,500. If it reaches its prior highs ($10.00), you will have $100,000. I like to think of it as an “informed gamble”. ~ Brian
I agree, Brian, it’s far better than gambling if done right!
Brian, I got a wife and family, especially Chinese wife. So I don’t buy junior minors. Otherwise I won’t get peace at home.
I was making a “jockularity”.
For myself, I really don’t care what anyone else does, unless I can predict what their going to do before they do it of course.
I do think people will buy gold again, might be too soon, but most people don’t think the market is going to crash any minute and goldshares will be 10% of what they are now at that point.
Wish I knew.
Glen – if you are out there. What are the odds that hui gap gets filled soon?
He put the odds at 90% for the pattern depicted by my arrows here:
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$HUI&p=D&yr=1&mn=1&dy=0&id=p61676139462&a=364007429
…which point to the gap getting filled near the end of the month.
Thanks matt!
You know, Doc Fan, with the next FOMC meeting on Jan 28-29, I think the end of the month would make perfect sense for a low. Pressure is always brought to bear on the sector when the Fed speaks.
Im leaning towards ecb or fomc matt. Keeping close eye and we can stay in dialogue here as to what we both see.
Cheers
Yes, dialogue is golden.
At the time of typing, we have a small “ba-da-bing” situation developing on gold… $1234….
Me think next week and the one after might be volatile.
Best to all, and GL investing.
Matt your charts are awesome mate.
Thanks stewie.
Matt,
Is on the ball here Doc Fan..I say two/three day rally here and possible thursday/friday correction with another monster big up on monday/tuesday then the correction i mentioned about ecb on 21. That will take about a week after fomc then up again.. 9 week ICL conformation we are headed towards 1350 one step at a time. Matthews charts confirms my intuition and readings.
I would think that gold would be topping out near 1234 and the general market would turn up. I got out of my oil XOP on Friday just in time.
Paul,
be careful gold is in a tidal wave and im being sincere.
I shorted with dust at 14.20 but got out as gold is looking too strong.
Oil was used as a store of value to back lending in the high yield market. The wheels have now come off that scam, and oil prices are set to match supply/demand, which is far lower than expectations were during the commodities super cycle.
Hey Guys
The Gold market also entails the miners, why are you guys not talking about the BIG move the miners have had. Still on the sidelines hey guys. The trend is clearly UP in the miners thanks to cheap oil prices. I guess the three Muskateers don’t like making money, they’re stand there with their finger in their mouth. Kinda funny if you ask me.
It’s bad when you get set in your mind and refuse to change, very bad!!
Peter
Peter,
I wont point fingers but that is what bull markets do! They leave many behind pondering/thinking/sidelines etc. By the time many enter they will not reap rewards from bottoms. So in essence guys like BB who say they want a ten bagger is nonsense because they get in after and they may get a 3 bagger. Im strapped in since november bottom. LPG/matt/peter/lawrence and few others are in and today its take a bottle of champagne out and for a moment have a pat on our hard work and belief that this was headed up.
Here is one for us all!
Luv you looooooong time Glenfidish (“pop” noise in the background)
🙂
Best to you,
LPG
🙂
Matt,
Can you put up a chart of silver and what level would it be at when gold say hits 1275/1350..Trying to get a number on silver
Thanks
glen i would stay away from silver for now. It will lag gold initially but miners will lead gold. Also miners are 85% depressed comparing to silver 60% so value is in miners. Also silver can be suppressed but gold won’t be at least not as much. Best value play is in miners not silver. JMHO.
I agree that the miners are most attractive (and I bet glen agrees too), but those who want silver should buy it when it is out of favor in my opinion. It can and will make up ground on gold very quickly when it’s time.
Stewie/matt
Im more into miners 🙂 Gold miners and some of my miners have silver as byproduct.
Sweet. Hope 2015 will be great year for gold and silver. Man Ron Rosen has some ambitious targets for gold this year. Any thoughts?
http://www.321gold.com/editorials/rosen/rosen011215.pdf
Stewie.
Interesting! None the less I expect 1350-1550 range. If it goes higher then it’s a bonus.
Glen, at 1350, I think silver will be about 19.50 or so. At 1275 I think probably more like 18 (no less than 17.75 and no more than 18.25).
Here’s an old chart with dashed lines added at those price points. I’ll probably put up something different a little later.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SILVER&p=D&yr=1&mn=0&dy=0&id=p78918671856&a=378548449&listNum=1
Thanks a bunch Matt
The CAD is killing me. Looks like it wants to fall to 79 versus dollars and it is going down in lockstep with crude which pretty much means that oil is heading to the basement before it hits bottom. Yikers. Who ever thought it would fall THIS far so fast. How does sub 20 dollar oil sound. This is insane.
Bird,
I mentioned 77/78 was a possibility. Sub 20 oil? Now that is much more bearish then my 35-40 i’ve called for.
Yes, it is bearish. And it is not scientific at all. Just a rough projection of what the Canadian dollar versus oil might look like if this trend keeps up. I don’t expect it to get that bad of course but 35 dollar oil hardly looks out of the question. The euro is also tracking the Canadian dollar down along with oil so they all appear linked to a rising USD.
Bird, regardless you like Alberta or not, it is the major game in town. Both BC and Ontario are not doing much to generate trade surplus. If Oil is gone, I think Canaian dollar only worth 70 cents or lower. A trade deficit will be a blow to Canadian dollar since we are not the reserve currency. Remember the days of 61 cents dollar?
I can only imagine the sour mood in Calgary right about now with these oil drops. I love Alberta, Lawrence. Cold as hell but my family hails from there eons ago and some are still ranching. I sure was not expecting our dollar to fall this low though. Really, I kind of thought we had a bounce coming but that is torpedoed. So far, this is not my year….but its still early! Maybe things will pick up later.We have to stay optimistic.
Bird, if I am the prime Minister and I cannot do anything to oil price, I will get Canadian dollar down to save the industry. Otherwise I have a big problem in my hand. This is what Russia did. I am not sure Harper will do it too. The mood is bad here. As long as lonie does not nose dive to create high inflation, it is workable.
Oil is what % of Canadian economy? 8-12% (on news last night)
Canada is actually pretty diversified, Canada is not going to die because oil tanks, maybe Alberta dies due to all they going to borrow because oil tanks tho.
Seems that gold and silver miners are getting away? Pulling out of the station and about to sit down for a toasted teacake, a pot of tea and a perusal of the morning papers?
“Oil shouldn’t be this low”…really? Maybe oil should’ve never been that high. Makes one wonder if the Saudis can move the market as some claim, then why has the price been so high for so long? Or is this decline in oil a symptom of a collapsing global economy–a prelude to what awaits Wall Street –and consequnetually Main Street after this brief reprieve.
Interesting thoughts.
Have a look at this chart bb. Just saw it on ZH and thought it interesting.
European 5Y Inflation / Brent Crude
http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user3303/imageroot/2015/01/20150112_EUIFO.jpg
You no something Bird, I am crap with charts, to me that looks like deflation.
Read the article, guess everything is coming down, maybe its a crash, if it is, goldshares don’t look to be crashing with everything else.
I can’t see them escaping a crash if the conventional markets go down.
More Canadian dollar depreciation should not be ruled out
“One of our favorite strategists, Martin Roberge at Canaccord Genuity, pointed out that more Canadian dollar depreciation (vs. the US dollar)should not be ruled out. A secular Canadian dollar bear market lasts about 10 years, and peak to trough declines about 30% on average. Since the peak in July 2011 the Canadian dollar is down 20%, meaning another 10% in downside risk shouldn’t be ruled out.
“While this might sound like bad news if you’re planning to shop in the States, it’s good news for Canadian exporters.”
Should see a lot more US films and TV programmes made overseas this year. Watch for Hollywood film workers start complaining by the Spring.
Even if not interested in reading “the greater fool’s” blog, his opening pic is usually worth the price of admission.
“Well, apparently there are 50% more people concerned with the future and wanting to bail out of Cowtown real estate than at this time last year. Hard to imagine that listings will decline or sales increase any time soon. Like realtor Mike says, first go oil prices, then go house prices.
“It’s just too bad the herd had to hit the cliff first.”
Euro gold has blown past several past highs and is the highest since September 2013 (when gold topped at $1434, following the 2013 crash).
Sterling gold has blown last several past highs and is the highest since February 2014 (when gold topped at $1393 in the early 2014 rally).
http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/gallery.html?s=%24GOLD%3A%24XEU
Bob Hoye’s real price of gold has been increasing since June 2014 (gold divided by his proprietary commodity index as a substitute for concocted government inflation figures). He is calling this a cyclical bull market in the real price of gold and typical for a post-bubble contraction, though he doesn’t really look at the US dollar price so closely.
Good morning from Québec Canada, I think you have the wrong editorial. Waiting for Gary’s comments.
Thanks!