Here is how the markets performed during the last bear.

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPX&p=D&st=2007-01-14&en=2009-03-30&id=p99257167318&a=384866300&listNum=1

There is still different setup though in 2000. The interest rate was higher whereas now rate is already zero or negative in real term. With the assumption fed will not do qe then seems pm may not react the same? Or maybe USD will go lower and enough to fuel pm sector against falling stock market?

Thanks Fran Six, I appreciate the reminder about safehaven.com

Nice “smidge” but only currently only 1/10 of 1 percent!

I believe that I was referring to a particular day.

Keylime, the lack of direction is what bothers me. And, yes, if you take the low of $1175 gold is up 5% but let’s look at all the numbers.

Not arguing, just want to clarify.

If you want to talk about short term trading your 5% number is accurate, I would suggest that the selling costs, etc. and the aggravation would be another important consideration. Remember, you would have to buy at the exact bottom and sell at the exact top and it would certainly be a short term trade with significant tax implications.

At what point in time, Gator, would you think that the $1890 number would be reality?

+1 Matthew.
Some stocks are up 15-20 and almost 30% YTD, ie in the space of just 2 weeks (less than 10 trading sessions)… Hello !!!
Tough not to take profits for some portfolio managers !
Best to all, and GL investing/trading.
LPG

I, again, agree with you Matthew.

Interesting facts on the past and how it may reflect on the present gold equities scenario.

I will be commenting on that tomorrow Ebolan. I am considering all the aspects now.

By the way, your e-mail address on our comp. newsletter list keeps coming back as invalid.

Please send me an e-mail (al@kereport.com) and I will use that address.

Interest rate related derivatives is over 500 trillions!!! And there are more on other derivatives. This is a giant ponzi scheme. Without printing money, these derivative will blow up. One party has to be paid. They also need money to support stocks and suppress gold. Oil junk debt is going to blow up. Credit card debt is in danger. Card loan is bad. All of these require money to maintain. I think they are counting on ECB to take over from BOJ but it seems that Germany is hanging tough. They seems allowing banks to buy sovereign debt but as for ECB to buy Spanish debt, Germans will be pissed. It is tough out there. If ECB cannot do QE, FED May not have choice but to QE. If ECB is lucky, FED can wait on QE to a later date. It is fun time to be a central banker.

Hello Genesys,
Hope you’re well.
I’m sure a few years before 2008-2009, if you had been told there would be hundreds of billions of dollars in TARP voted by US Congress then multiple QEs, you would have thought: IMPOSSIBLE because
1) credibility of US capitalism would have been torn
2) credibility of US Congress would have been torn
3) credibility of the Fed would have been torn.

Yet…. it occurred.
IMHO, the set-up of events and their spin in the medias can enable ANYTHING to occur.
As an aside, I don’t think many large-size institutions have any respect for the Fed as they now the game played. These institutions pretend it’s all good… just because otherwise fund withdrawals request will flood their inboxes.

Just my 2cts.

Best to you,

LPG

Interesting point, Genesys

Gotta be really good and somewhat lucky, I would think!

I think that’s exactly what the market is telling us is about to happen with gold holding up so well lately as the dollar continued to rise. The reversals are going to catch a lot of people totally off guard and on the wrong side(lines).

I am glad to be in gold and silver. The silver has recouped all the loss last year and gold has gained 15%. Long live Canadian $

Right, otherwise the system will collapse. We are much more fragile than 2008.

+1

What about Jan. 27-28? Was it cancelled?

I will have something on this in the morning.

It got worse. No?

Wrong about what? Are you saying that the stock market did not break it’s intermediate trend line?

I have no idea if miners are going to recover quickly or not, but I’ve seen it before when stocks move down into an ICL margin calls can force selling in everything. I’m just suggesting a trailing stop so folks don’t turn a winning trade into a losing one if this continues.

Are you saying that traders should let a winning trade become a loser and ignore it?

I was just looking at copper – copper going down kinda of supports a rapidly slowing economy / deflation, etc, so I am surprised to see oil going up.

I was just reading an article on a UK financial site that theorised that the price of oil will turn back up when the price for 5 year futures did – which apparently it has done today – but I know nothing about oil so I have no idea whether this makes sense or not.

I would have thought it was simply a short term bounce. I thought that we would get nearer 40 bucks first and probably high 30s.

Considering my life depends on oil, I don’t mind pay 10$ a gallon. LOL

I don’t think it is that critical to “fill up your car today”!

Gold is due for a move down into a daily cycle low. I covered this in the interview. I prefer to be on the sidelines when things get volatile like this.

You said this before and I answered it before.

I said the stock market needs to top before we get any big move of liquidity into commodities. I don’t think stocks have reached a final top yet. The Nasdaq has to at least reach 5100 before looking for a final top.

Richard — And that is precisely why the biggest bubble of them all — blind faith that the central banks will always have our backs — is losing ITS air. We will be soon moving from that environment of “Oh, goodie – more free money!” to “Oh, my God! MORE free money!?” This end game of the fractional reserve system is what will cause the CB’s to panic, add zeroes to their last QE budgets, and cause the bigger liftoff in gold and other tangible assets.

Doc
The answer to that question is if the Fed annouced QE4 the US$ dollar would reverse and head down, which would help the US export market and the multinationals. After all it is the multinationals that are the economic engine to the US economy right now. This will happen in the first and second quarter when the multinationals report poor earnings in the first and second quarters.

Peter

I did not mean to be disrespectful of Al, Cory, or the three very talented guests (Gary, DOC, and Rick).

To be specific: There was obvious (in my mind) tax loss-selling the last couple days of 2014 (as Cory noted). I took a chance (OK .. a bet), that there would, be a “Snap -back” event in the first couple weeks of January 2015 .. and it paid off. But I think my logic (risk versus reward) was sound.

Again, I apologize if I appeared to be disrespectful to anyone

Brian

Everybody was on-board a little way back. Now everyone seems to be on the sidelines, although I don’t see any change in their arguments.

Peter
This just isn’t a market to buy and hold yet. So one has to reverse course when the market changes.

Here are perfect examples.

I was bullish on stocks until the S&P broke support at 2080. We exited at almost the exact top and booked a nice profit. The market told me it was changing and I changed with it.

Last Monday I told my subs that for anyone who wanted to trade the sector you could probably buy miners on the open. Yesterday I suggested they might want to take profits as the bearish engulfing candlestick was forming. So anyone who followed made some decent profits. Again I was just adapting to changing market conditions.

I just don’t think this is a buy and hold market yet. I understand how most people want a guru to tell them that the market is going to rally straight up forever and then somehow make it happen. But as far as I know no one has the power to do that so we just have to adapt as we go along to changing conditions.

Another case in point. I called the bottom of gold’s intermediate cycle perfectly in Nov. but it didn’t deliver the strong surge like it normally does off of an intermediate bottom so I adapt to what the market gives me and became more cautious. Right now it’s sending signals that a daily cycle top might be forming. Once that is over maybe miners will go back up but I can’t know that at this point, all I can do is acknowledge what is happening right now and keep an open mind that it could go in either direction.

But as long as things remain volatile like this I feel like it’s safer on the sidelines rather than risk stubbornly committing to one direction and risking being wrong. Let’s face it the bull has no chance of running away from us. There’s been way too much damage on the long term charts for it to be repaired quickly. Plus it’s starting to get a little late in the intermediate cycle so any further gains from here will almost certainly be given back once the declining phase of the intermediate cycle begins.

So there is no pressing need to fight with this volatile market right now. Sometimes one just have to accept that the right strategy is on the sidelines until things calm down. Cash is a position too.

Still have most of my NUGT @ $10, just sold my trading shares 🙂

-24 C? What is that in American temperature 😉

Very Nice…Well always good to add value to the forum.

cheers