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Gary wants a confirmation.

Big Al
January 15, 2015

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123 Comments
    Jan 15, 2015 15:49 AM

    Not convinced by today’s moves. Seems to me that everyone is panicking and running around like headless chickens. Do they buy, do they sell? Up. Down.

    But hey, what do I know.

    The Swiss move is clearly connected with EU QE – presumably the Swiss know that QE is coming next week from Draghi and so disconnected the Swiss Franc from the Euro… but now that everyone assumes European QE is coming can you imagine what happens if he fails to deliver next Thursday?

      Jan 15, 2015 15:51 AM

      No matter what happens, paper promises from liars are doomed.

      Jan 15, 2015 15:11 AM

      Bob,

      Everytime i see Gary Post something or react to others comments your there to defend lol. What are you his sidekick 🙂

      Notice you post quite a bit on his blog. Are you a subscriber? You have been negative gold for quite sometime, in fact as long as gary since he jumped over. Again I urge you to forget the noise and focus on why gold is going up.

      Peter,Stewie,myself, and many others have told you why on many occasions. Wake up we have an inverse head and shoulders formation before your eyes in gold happening and people are still in denial. Geeze

        Jan 15, 2015 15:19 AM

        No, I am not one of Gary’s subscribers – would it matter if I was?

          Jan 15, 2015 15:32 AM

          Bob,

          Not at all. I like Gary and respect Gary’s views and cycle theory. He has plenty of experience and credibility. Forgive my recent rant about his stance prior to new years and his getting of the gold wagon. Aside from that Gary has been on the ball in 2014 and I thank him for his many free contributions here. What Gary said today is what im more in line with.

          I have no issues with gary or anyone on here. Im thankful for what they do.

          Bob keep those post coming as well 🙂

          cheers

            Jan 15, 2015 15:44 AM

            No offence taken.

      LPG
      Jan 15, 2015 15:29 AM

      Bob UK,
      Biggest impediment to EU QE was/is legal, IMHO.
      This hurdle has been somewhat “cleared” by the EU Court of Justice decision earlier this week, in my view.
      Just my 2cts.
      LPG

    Jan 15, 2015 15:50 AM

    This seems to be one of those “Oh SH_ _” days for the big boys. Like Gary suggests, it’s probably too early to load up the boat but one can say that swan certainly changes things. The next one I believe will be in the financial markets also….either a big bank or hedge fund caught with their pants down, if you will. Next week could be big also with the ECB announcing their decision on some stimulus action.
    Question Gary: How do these type of surprise shocks affect your thinking with cycles? It’s it disrupting to the count and perhaps even to the trends that cycles portend? Thanks.

      Jan 15, 2015 15:09 AM

      Be interesting to hear Gary’s answer Silverdollar. I would think that these surprise events would effec cycle thinking.

    Black swan…………..swiss cheese……………..game over………

    Jan 15, 2015 15:55 AM

    Marty says: Swiss Peg Collapses – The Euro’s Nightmare

    http://armstrongeconomics.com/2015/01/15/swiss-peg-collapses-the-euros-nightmare/

    Jan 15, 2015 15:55 AM

    For those of your who believe in conspiracies and some super elite running the world… it is interesting to note that Prince Andrew bought a 13 million – not sure if it was in Pounds or Swiss Francs – house in Switzerland last week.

    Assuming that he bought for cash in Swiss Francs, or in any cash, he is now richer after today’s moves. Property in Switzerland is now more expensive if you are looking to buy today than yesterday.

    On the other hand, if he has a big fat Swiss Franc mortgage and his main income is in Sterling – OUCH! His mortgage just got a lot more expensive.

    Maybe there is a reason why the rich buy houses in Switzerland? To be closer to their money?

    🙂

      Jan 15, 2015 15:10 AM

      Bob UK, that is a very interesting coincidence!

    LPG
    Jan 15, 2015 15:57 AM

    If one charts the USD.CHF and Spot Gold, the move up started at the same time – more subtly to start with but then more steeply.

    There was an interesting c. 15mn long interview on Bberg today, w. the MS speaker part the most interesting in terms of insights, IMHO:
    http://www.bloomberg.com/video/fx-strategists-on-snb-s-surprise-removal-of-franc-cap-pZ8iQwXERMyQ6dKC2nHr6A.html

    As far as SNB is concerned, I think they have shrunk their BS in order to load up more Euros via Eurozone bonds, to help the ECB in its upcoming programme. And this is why they didn’t want to be limited by 20% minimum gold holdings during the recent referendum.
    Interestingly, this decision from the SNB comes just right after the “conditional” green light on the ECB bond-buying programme by the European Court of Justice just a few hours ago. IMHO, it’s not a coincidence.

    Just my 2cts.

    LPG

    Jan 15, 2015 15:59 AM

    The Swiss were first
    Who’s next

    Jan 15, 2015 15:59 AM

    This was an actual “Black Swan”, in that it was not predicted ~ Brian

      ditto

      Jan 15, 2015 15:11 AM

      Of course it way, Brian!

      Jan 15, 2015 15:19 AM

      Brian,

      You could say that but im sure big money “JP Morgan.goldmans” had a tip off to that. So yes black swan to average joes but not to very powerful people.

        Jan 15, 2015 15:38 AM

        It looks like Egon von Greyerz new it was coming soon. In his fictitious memo from December 1st, he wrote: “The 1.20 peg is artificial and throughout history no currency peg has ever held in the longer-term. Our 470 billion Euro/Swiss franc speculative position is a time bomb and we know we will never be able to extract from it without major losses. Hopefully the current board will have retired from the (Swiss National) Bank before his happens.”
        http://kingworldnews.com/man-predicted-collapse-swiss-franc-gives-shocking-predictions-2015/

          Matthew……….nice reminder…………especially for those who do not give kwn any credibility ……….appreciate….j.

          Jan 15, 2015 15:05 PM

          Big oops, “knew” not “new” lol…

          Jan 15, 2015 15:55 PM

          matt, this guy is valuable and most accurate on anything Europe related stuff. But I think he does not know much about Asia. He has been off base on Asia for many years

    Jan 15, 2015 15:15 AM

    You guys git it all wrong.. Gold has moved higher way before today’s action. The market is forward looking and you guys are steps behind. Gold was headed towards 1275 long before today you just needed to see through it. By the time we get to 1350 they will release another news event and you will say that is why it is 1350. Well no! Its 1350 because markets are forward looking and gold is pricing in what is coming. Massive stimulus/us dollar reversal.

      LPG
      Jan 15, 2015 15:31 AM

      +1 Glenfidish
      LPG

        Jan 15, 2015 15:35 AM

        LPG,

        coming from you that’s a big 🙂

        Now if Matt ever through me a bone or one of those many +1 he claims to have in storage then I would be all :):):)

          Jan 15, 2015 15:05 AM

          Lol glen! Here’s a +1 for this comment and a retroactive +3 for my past lapses. 🙂

      Jan 15, 2015 15:26 AM

      +1 glenfidish

    Jan 15, 2015 15:24 AM

    I think I need to run out and stock up on Emmental.

    LPG
    Jan 15, 2015 15:27 AM

    When I heard this podcast, I could not help by smile. The reason is that as of 2 weeks ago, just 2 weeks ago, I was hearing the following lines on Kereport:
    * conventional markets are the place to be in 2015
    * sideline is the place to be as far as gold is concerned.
    What a change in tone ! 😉

    So far, after only 2 weeks, this suggested positioning for 2015 has not proven/given great rewards.

    NOOOOOWWWW (before anyone jumps on my throat), I know it’s only been 2 weeks. I K-N-O-W….
    …But what I believe in is that:
    1) buying when prices fall is what produces the best risk/rewards IRRESPECTIVE of the asset class (ultimately, this is what produces the best returns)
    and
    2) “paying attention and monitoring risk” (these words are from Matthew – giving credit where it’s due) is an appropriate attitude when investing (investing is mostly about risk management).

    Personally, I will be tempted to lighten up IF gold hits in the $1300 zone. By this I mean I will likely trim some of my stocks exposure and my Jan 2016 options.

    Also, re: the conventional markets, I have started to look at 31 Dec 2015 Calls, which I will start to accumulate if S&P get closer to 1900, and add more aggressively IF it gets closer to 1800pts. Same logic: I will start to accumulate calls if they go down more.
    Those who have read some of my posts know the process:
    1) have an investment thesis
    2) have a plan based on the thesis
    3) execute the plan as per the plan – unless something MAJOR has changed within the thesis
    4) have a plan for AFTER the plan

    What I believe is that during times of volatility, one has to be NIMBLE.
    But being nimble doesn’t mean IDDLE or doing nothing/being on the sidelines.

    There is nothing wrong (morally 🙂 ) with being on the sidelines BUT…. when there is volatility, a “wait-and-see” attitude typically seeks confirmation by price action… And when price are starting to move up up up up uppppp… then the eyes say to the brain: “it’s going up -> there is less risk -> BUY now”.
    Unfortunately, 1) this is the wrong approach to minimizing risks and 2) one runs the risk of buying fake breakout on charts etc… -> ie to get slapped hard just at the time where the eyes thought the chart was showing “things are safe”.

    I will finish by giving an example of my own experience of planing/executing when things are low etc… And the example I chose reflect a process slippage/error from my side.
    At the end of Oct/early Nov, I decided to buy some GLD/SLV Jan 2016 Calls alongside deploying cash on stocks which were crashing. That was “the plan”.
    However, I got busy/distracted with buying stocks and didn’t follow-through on purchasing the calls. When I realized one evening (between Nov 7 and Nov 10 – I don’t recall exactly when) that I had not bought any calls I got annoyed as I KNEW I had missed an opportunity on some “cheap” calls. Within the next few days, I didn’t wanna buy the calls as their price had moved UP too much to my taste.
    I finally managed to pick up some at the levels I wanted at the end of Nov, just before the Swiss referendum. BUTTTT I paid about 15-20% more than if I had executed my plan in late Oct/early Nov. And I kept some firepower to buy more in case gold was to move lower.
    It doesn’t seem like a big difference as we are discussing options here (which can have wild swings in price) BUTTTT…. if I had not had this process slippage, I would ALMOST be up 100% on the GLD options as of today, which means I could have sold half of them today and not worried about the other-half (free ride).
    Instead, I am up “only” c.60% on those and can therefore not sell 1/2 for a free ride.

    This, in my view, exemplify the merits of buying low – ie when things are ugly.
    Hopefully, I will get a shot at Dec 2015 Call options if S&P hits 1900, and even better, 1800pts. But the same logic will apply: buy when they go down, not when they go up.
    I want volatility to be my friend as it can bring me lower prices…

    Best to all, and GL investing/trading.

    LPG

      Jan 15, 2015 15:37 AM

      LPG + 5 stars 🙂

      You were very clear about this during those times. You mentioned buying in at those lows. So yes you have plenty of credibility in glens books.

        LPG
        Jan 15, 2015 15:06 PM

        Wow… Now I get “stars” 🙂 Cool stuff ! 🙂
        Thank you Glenfidish – and I luv u too 🙂
        Best to you and GL investing,
        LPG

      get some sticky notes……………..stick them on the computer with your thoughts…leave nothing to memory………………………jmho…………

        LPG
        Jan 15, 2015 15:00 AM

        Thanks J The Long for the suggestion.
        Simple but efficient 🙂

        I don’t proceed like this these days – I used to.

        I now typically do things on Excel, stock by stock/option by option coz then I can run calculations etc…, all in 1 spreadsheet.

        The thing is that “I wanted to buy options” but I didn’t look at them, I didn’t pre-select them. So I had the idea but didn’t prepare myself. That’s all my fault: lack of preparation/work typically leads to bad outcomes when it comes to investing.

        Yesterday I came with this idea/thesis about S&P Dec 2015 calls, so at 4am, I looked at various ones, potential $ allocation, levels etc… I didn’t want to postpone and repeat the mistake.

        These various call options are now, on my head, they are on my trading software dashboard – and everything is ready. In simple terms: I am prepared.
        Lesson learned. 🙂

        Thanks again and GL to all investing/trading.

        LPG

        Jan 15, 2015 15:07 PM

        OOTB, what exactly does memory mean?

          OWL…………it is the end process, of determining which side the sticky side faces….., after application to your forehead. Lick once, repeat if sticky note fails to apply.

      Jan 15, 2015 15:38 AM

      I don’t mean to be glib, but +1 !

        Jan 15, 2015 15:51 AM

        Not to be outdone +1 to so many of you decent guys from whom I learn so much!

    Jan 15, 2015 15:34 AM

    Al, sideline or no sideline, you are the wide receiver who scare to get hit, put on your helmet and get on the field.

      Jan 15, 2015 15:38 AM

      Catman

      Thanks for the laugh..

      Jan 15, 2015 15:12 AM

      Sideline Big Al come on get in the game 🙂

      Peter

      Jan 15, 2015 15:08 PM

      No I am not scared to get hit. I am simply a person who has been playing this game for a long time!

        Jan 15, 2015 15:09 PM

        By the way, Monday night I was playing for Ohio State!

    Jan 15, 2015 15:46 AM

    I am of the opinion that the miners have lagged long enough and now it is their time to shine. I think GDX will be testing the 23-24 level quite soon, maybe tomorrow, maybe next week. If it gets enough shorts to cover it might just be on its way to that gap up around 31-32 within a month or two. GDX is a go long on the daily, weekly, and monthly. Technicals don’t tell the whole story (could still turn against you) but if you are a trader it doesn’t get much better than right here.

      Jan 15, 2015 15:47 AM

      I agree, and the technicals look good to me.

        Jan 15, 2015 15:05 AM

        Matt,LPG others

        Have you taken a look at the short ratio on the miners lately?

        Some have increased quite a bit. Iamgold’s seems concerning.

          Jan 15, 2015 15:21 AM

          While short players tend to be quite sophisticated in a market that has always increased, higher short ratios tend to be a bullish indicator. I know traders that target high short ratio companies to take a long position.

            Jan 15, 2015 15:35 AM

            Tenyear,

            Interesting you eould think the opposite. Obviously I like to monitor such increases and keep a close eye on it.

            Thanks

            Jan 15, 2015 15:02 AM

            I am one of those that likes high short ratios. If you get a group of very sophisticated individuals all taking the same action, they become just another herd to trade against.
            Some very reputable guys were advising shorting the silver miners in the summer/fall of 2010; I leveraged long into them. We all know what happened next.

            I see evidence now of top-callers using the silver miners to play the short side. If they’re wrong, we could see very good moves very quickly.

          LPG
          Jan 15, 2015 15:03 AM

          Glenfidish,
          I haven’t looked at the short ratio lately.
          But as a sidenote, I never do – and I don’t say this proudly.
          Having said that, if you can get EXTREMELY RECENT data on short ratio, this can be useful for investment decisions – I don’t deny this.
          GL investing/trading and best to you.
          LPG

            Jan 15, 2015 15:37 AM

            LPG,

            That is the difficult thing to do regarding“extreme recent“ data.

            Matt or anyone else what is the best way to get such info on short position?

            Jan 15, 2015 15:59 AM

            Here’s one source:
            http://www.nasdaq.com/symbol/iag/short-interest
            Short interest for IAG has tripled since Q1 2014. Interesting. For comparison, AXU’s SI came down about 80% since then.

            Jan 15, 2015 15:04 PM

            Matt,

            That is what i always use but there is a 12-15 day delay by the time one get’s the december 31 short ratio month end.

            For example for december 31 2014, Nasdaq released it I believe today or yesterday.

            Is there a payed site that can get it faster? I will gladly pay.

            Jan 15, 2015 15:48 PM

            Matt,

            Thanks do you use it personally?

          Jan 15, 2015 15:29 AM

          Matt,

          Thanks for insight..

    Jan 15, 2015 15:47 AM

    If GDXJ can close the week above 28.68 (and preferable a few dimes more), next week could be very good.
    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=GDXJ&p=W&yr=1&mn=11&dy=0&id=p55807199599&a=385017112

    Jan 15, 2015 15:53 AM

    If the swiss have removed their peg to the euro then that is usd positive and pms negative.Deflation is coming guys.Dollar is king an bondswill keep performing well in 2015.Mark my wors.Euro is doomed.Eurozone will soon drop into depression.Unemployment will rise further and far right parties are gonna be elected.Bloodbath phase is coming.You cannot have a recovery without having first a bancruptcy/bloodbath phase.

      Jan 15, 2015 15:07 AM

      I think you are out to lunch, IMHO

        Jan 15, 2015 15:09 AM

        +1 Lawrence

        Jan 15, 2015 15:02 AM

        Yup, +1

        Jan 15, 2015 15:24 PM

        If you are refering to Don C., I don’t think he is out to lunch at all, just perhaps a bit too enthusiastic!

      Jan 15, 2015 15:23 PM

      Don’t know if I would be quite that dramatic Don, but I believe that directionally you are absolutely correct!

    Jan 15, 2015 15:30 AM

    BoBo update……chooo choooo all aboard lol

    “Upwards price movement is expected to get aggressive starting as early as tomorrow Friday January 16, 2015 and
    much more aggressive starting Thursday January 22, 2015 for Gold, Silver and Platinum. Gold is the leader of the
    precious metals, Platinum has started to catch up and Silver is next. Yesterday, January 14, 2015 into today January 15, 2015 are expected to be the FINAL ENTRY POINT before Gold, Silver
    and Platinum’s upwards move is expected to get much more aggressive. Short term low cycle TIME expired yesterday
    and ends today on the close, regardless of PRICE. An up cycle of 7 ‐ 8 trading days starts today.”

      Jan 15, 2015 15:26 PM

      And a source would be, Stewie?

        Jan 16, 2015 16:17 AM

        Bo Polny 😉 Our buddy lol

          Jan 16, 2015 16:19 AM

          I think it’s time for him to be our guest on show again hehe

    Jan 15, 2015 15:37 AM

    Stewie,

    Did not know your forte is cycles 🙂

    Hope you nails this as that is precisely what im waiting for. Everytime I open my mouth and say we are going up we stall lol. I will keep it shut for expectations how about that 🙂

      Jan 15, 2015 15:55 AM

      glenfidish that’s an update from Bo. There is more he wrote about but last 3 of his previous updates been pretty right on. I’m pretty sure he will nail this one too.
      He confirmed that in short cycle higher high has been reached which confirms new bull trend. Gary is looking for intermediate cycle high of 1340 for confirmation. That’s fine but that’s too much to miss on the upside. I will sell at that point and get in when Gary does. That’s a up cycle equivalent of 1500 gold. Not bad for young buck like me lol. I do appreciate Gary’s input always even if i don’t agree.

        Jan 15, 2015 15:57 AM

        I’m gonna get some Yamazaki 18 yr old Sherry cast scotch once we hit 1340 lol

          Jan 15, 2015 15:51 AM

          That’s what im thinking as well. My approach may be similar to LPG as I will start unwinding my trading portfolio once we breach 320ish slowly at a time. I have a rebuy target of 275/250 but I will follow Gary on that call as he see’s 1240 a possibility. Lets not get to far ahead of us lol.. These miners need to run at the close or tomorrow into weekend.

          Nice taste of scoth 🙂

          My favorite hard drink is Cognac.

          My favorite drink is Red Wine “Napa Valley”
          1. Opus ( If we hit 1350 I pop one open)
          2. Cakebread (If we run up in the miners in next three days I pop one open)
          3. Anything nappa after 🙂

            Jan 15, 2015 15:32 PM

            Interesting being the wino that I am. Opus is, of course great! Reds, I really prefer Dry Creek or the higher end Ste Michele or Kendall Jackson.

          Jan 15, 2015 15:28 PM

          Glenmorangie Sherry cask 12 year old is one you should try. I, being destitute that I am, really like Glenmorangie 10 year!

            Jan 16, 2015 16:16 AM

            Thank you Al. I will try it. That Yamazaki has been named best whiskey of 2015 by Jim Murrey, The whiskey bible guy

        Jan 15, 2015 15:54 AM

        By the way stewie charles nenner is pretty good. I watched David gurwitz’s last interview on kitco. I liked what he had to say and it made sense. That we bottomed at 1180 last year and based along for a good while. He was satisfied with 1130 bottom and his camp is all in.

        Jan 15, 2015 15:27 PM

        Okay fair enough. It has been a bit of a wait though!

          Jan 16, 2015 16:22 AM

          I saw that interview but they he missed the $50 to the down side move so i was like noooo lol

    Jan 15, 2015 15:37 AM

    I understand Gary. This is not really a technical and cycles issue. Gary was pretty good last year before he finally gave up. It is more a psychology issue. Price is rising relentlessly, if you are out of gold market, you are in a pickle. If we chase, we are afraid the price will come down. If we don’t chase, we fear the price just run away. That is why manipulation is so harmful. It makes otherwise rational decision so irrational. It all depends on what someone in a dark corner will do. For me, my decision is simple, focus on fundamentals.

      Jan 15, 2015 15:06 PM

      Lawrence and in the end your method or that method is the more successful one IMHO. You make really good points.

      Jan 15, 2015 15:33 PM

      As you know Lawrence, I am pretty much with you on that.

    Jan 15, 2015 15:40 AM

    Gotta love this Gary Gartman guy.

    Jan 15, 2015 15:06 AM

    I wonder if gold will retrace if and when it triggers Gary’s $1347 mark. If this $1347 “technical indicator” is run won’t other traders see that signal too and jump on there pushing gold much higher?

    Jan 15, 2015 15:14 AM

    Break out confirmed also by others.
    http://67.19.64.18/news/2015/1-15pr/image004.png

    Tom
    Jan 15, 2015 15:32 AM

    U guys are off ur rockers! Fed’s gunna raise rates soon, stocks to continue higher, metals will get absolutely crushed absolutely.

      Jan 15, 2015 15:33 AM

      I told you. Fed will NEVER raise rates. It serves banks not sheeple.

      Jan 15, 2015 15:49 AM

      Says the guy who advised shorting GDX last weekend…

      Are you not aware that interest rates went up WITH gold through the 1970s? Gold went up 25 times against the USD and that was when the U.S. was still the worlds largest creditor. It is now the world’s largest debtor.

      In 1980, it took about $470 gold to back foreign-held U.S. debt. Today, it would take well over $20,000 gold to do the same. In addition, relative to the money supply, gold is cheaper now than it was in 2000 at $255/oz.

        Jan 15, 2015 15:35 PM

        You are correct Matthew and those were the day when gold and silver really got my attention!

      Jan 15, 2015 15:52 AM

      Tom what are you drinking, piss.

      Peter

        Jan 15, 2015 15:55 AM

        Vinegar?

          Jan 15, 2015 15:09 PM

          lol

          Jan 15, 2015 15:41 PM

          Do you mean sour grade juice? Not sure what you mean.Drinking vinegar means jealousy in Chinese though.

        Tom
        Jan 15, 2015 15:04 PM

        its tough to nail the top exactly like I nailed ur woman.

          Jan 15, 2015 15:09 PM

          Now you are a complete jackass and idiot!

          Al kick this guy to da moon with gold lol..

            Tom
            Jan 15, 2015 15:12 PM

            Hey, Peter started it. He either draws the flag or the penalties are offsetting. Al’s choice.

            Jan 15, 2015 15:37 PM

            Tom,

            I like your comments, but please do keep them clean! You are too smart to not do that!

          Jan 15, 2015 15:36 PM

          Touche!

      ROCKER…………TO ROCKETS…………………..

    Jan 15, 2015 15:46 PM

    Pinch hitting for the pitcher Al korelin, time to bat up Al.

      Jan 15, 2015 15:37 PM

      Fair enough Catman!

    Jan 15, 2015 15:00 PM

    So uh , tough crowd today , eh? Tom

    Lol

    Jan 15, 2015 15:11 PM

    World deflationary forces have swept away Switzerland’s defences

    Swiss Central Bank has lost control.

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/comment/ambroseevans_pritchard/11348809/World-deflationary-forces-have-swept-away-Switzerlands-defences.html

    Jan 15, 2015 15:50 PM

    Hey Matthew, DOC, Gary
    Brian here.
    Sorry for the late-night request. Have you looked at Silver (the metal) charts? I noticed that silver is NOT tracking gold. Any thoughts?

      Jan 15, 2015 15:57 PM

      I was thinking that if gold reaches Gary’s $1350 target for gold, silver might actually rise above $20. That would move the Gold/Silver ratio to the mid-60s:1 (it is sitting @ 74:1 right now). Also, if the PMs (the metal) really take off, history says that the Gold/Silver ratio may head towards 30s:1. In our dreams it could reach 10:1.
      Brian

        Jan 15, 2015 15:14 PM

        Silver is 85% related to gold in its movement so far. However, it has its own drivers. I am counting on solar energy usage, other electronics and nano technology. It also can comes to a shortage due to base metal production shut down. A lot of unknowns.

          Jan 16, 2015 16:49 AM

          I agree with you on all of these points. The 85% correlation is interesting. I am expecting a major drop in the G:S ration as gold rises. Maybe that $3 daily limit (collar) will kick in for silver, eh?

            Jan 16, 2015 16:26 AM

            85% correlation comes from David Morgan. It is stats not rule. For any individual day, silver can move whatever it wants without changing stats a bit. If silver deviates from stats by 1% every day consistently, it can bring GSR to the 50s within a couple of months.

      Jan 15, 2015 15:31 PM

      You’re right, Brian, silver has not yet confirmed the action in gold, but I think it will very soon. It wouldn’t surprise me if gold does very little tomorrow while silver manages to finally break out and close the week above the neckline of its head and shoulders pattern.
      http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$GOLD&p=D&yr=0&mn=5&dy=0&id=p32522322791&a=385093789

    Jan 15, 2015 15:36 PM

    Gold is now at a 21 year high versus oil (oil is at a 21 year low priced in real money).
    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$GOLD:$WTIC&p=M&st=1981-09-07&en=today&id=p61642187752&a=366698528&listNum=1

      Jan 16, 2015 16:29 AM

      What do you make of GTO ratio Matt? I want oil to decline to $40 mark. Not liking it at $44 low. There still was no oil capitation volume and no hammers, just some dojis along the way that got downside later

        Jan 16, 2015 16:50 AM

        btw i think $60 norm for oil media talks about is complete nonsense. All open and non open countries need 100+ oil to curb demand from china and world.
        http://news.goldseek.com/GoldSeek/1421338915.php

        Jan 16, 2015 16:50 AM

        You’re right, but the ETN/ETF OIL:GLD show massive capitulation volume.
        http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=OIL:GLD&p=W&yr=8&mn=0&dy=0&id=p02691807358&a=380911182&listNum=1
        I like to price things in the most stable measure of value there is —gold. This gives a much better idea of where things really stand and how unusual the action really is. Oil is now at a 21 year low when priced in gold —it has not been cheaper in real terms in 21 years! Focusing hard on the dollar price only makes sense in the short term; no more than 3 years (yes I know, 3 years is very long term from a traders perspective).

        So gold is up 100% vs. oil in less than a year, and we’re told that gold is “just a commodity?” This is going to be very good for the gold miners. Just think, if oil didn’t collapse, gold would have had to double in order to have the same impact on that particular mining expense.

    Jan 15, 2015 15:38 PM