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The Swiss announcement will have an impact on the markets for quite some time

January 15, 2015

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Here is Roger’s latest post on this topic as well.

Trader Tracks Newsletter Major Alert

After the Bell Continued: Late News Alert Thursday, 1-15-15:

 

We did previously forecast a diversion or major split between the Swiss Franc currency and the sinking Euro Currency.        Our prediction was correct as it happened today.Immediately the Swiss Franc shot up in value so much, it was                     reported an adult drink formerly at $6 will now cost $41! In our view, they had to do this as larger currency                        disruptions are in play all over the world with broken credit markets and most of Europe sinking toward insolvency.

“Reuters: The Swiss National Bank shocked financial markets on Thursday by scrapping a three-year-old cap on the franc, sending the safe-haven currency soaring against the Euro and stocks plunging amid fears for the export-reliant Swiss economy. The volume on the Swiss stock exchange was 600% of normal according to Bloomberg Television this morning.

Only days ago, SNB officials had described the 1.20 francs per Euro cap, introduced in 2011 at the height of the Euro-Zone crisis to prevent the strong currency leading to deflation and a recession, as the cornerstone of the bank’s monetary policy.

The U-turn sent the franc nearly +30% higher against Euro in chaotic early trading. It came a week before the European Central Bank is expected to unveil a massive bond-buying program that might have forced the SNB to intervene repeatedly to defend the cap.

“Today’s SNB action is a tsunami; for the export industry and for tourism, and finally for the entire country,” said Nick Hayek, chief executive of Swiss watch firm Swatch. SNB Chairman Thomas Jordan denied at a news conference that the move amounted to a “panic reaction”, saying the cap had been scrapped because it was unsustainable. “If you decide to exit such a policy, you have to take the markets by surprise,” Jordan said.

As it removed the upper limit on the currency, the SNB sought to discourage new flows into Swiss Francs by pushing down its interest rate on some cash deposits held at the central bank by commercial banks and other financial institutions. After taking the rate into negative territory last month for the first time since the 1970s, it cut another 0.5 percentage points on Thursday to -0.75 percent, a move Jordan said would help ease upward pressure on the Franc over time.

“The values we currently see (on currency markets) point to a massive overvaluation of the Franc. They should come back down to more sustainable levels,” Jordan said. “Markets tend to overreact when confronted with such a surprise.” Earlier this month, Jordan described the cap as “absolutely central”, while SNB vice-chairman Jean-Pierre Danthine said on Monday it would remain the cornerstone of SNB policy.

Leading newspaper Neue Zuercher Zeitung described the move as “unavoidable”.  On social media, however, it was dubbed “Francogeddon”. With more than 40 percent of Swiss exports going to the euro zone, a strong franc is a nightmare for leading exporters. Swiss shares tumbled over -10 percent, putting them on track for their biggest one-day fall in at least 25 years and wiping about 100 billion Swiss francs off the main index.

Banks UBS and Credit Suisse were both down over -10% at 1315 GMT, while Richemont, which owns luxury watchmaker Cartier, and Swatch were the biggest losers, down roughly -15%. Christian Levrat, president of the left-wing Social Democrat party, called the move “a serious threat for tens of thousands of Swiss jobs”. As markets tumbled, people rushed to banks to change money. “I’ve never seen such a drop in one go, it’s huge. People will probably be buying euros, but also dollars and other currencies,” said one UBS teller, after selling Euros to a Russian client.

Investors have been sweeping up the Swiss currency as the ECB considers printing money to buy bonds, or quantitative easing. Europe’s showdown with Russia over Ukraine has also put pressure on the Euro and made the Franc more attractive.  Swiss quote analysts Ipek Ozkardeskaya said recent heavy interventions to defend the cap may have forced the SNB’s hand.

“Given the pressures on the EUR/CHF, an accidental break of the floor would have been more serious for SNB credibility,” she said, adding that panic around the Franc was likely to continue until the SNB unveils a “new game plan”. In the first minutes of trading, the franc broke past parity to trade at 0.8052 francs per euro before trimming gains to 1.0255.

Fitch’s managing director of sovereign ratings Ed Parker said the move would not affect Switzerland’s top-grade rating. Roger: It will enhance their credit rating as the premium “Go to currency” in all of Europe valued higher than Germany’s old Mark Currency, if that currency was trading. Germany now trades in Euros. Germany will be the next to dump the Euro for their old Marks as soon as reasonably possible. This will hasten the demise of the ECB, ECB bonds and the Euroland Grand Experiment.

“Clearly a change in monetary policy is an important event in terms of looking at what is going to happen to the Swiss economy but it is not a sovereign rating issue at the moment.” –Reuters News: Reporters Caroline Copley, Katharina Bart, Stephanie Nebehay and Paul Carrel; Writing Tom Miles; Editing Noah Barkin & Catherine Evans

Discussion
30 Comments
    Jan 15, 2015 15:58 AM
      Jan 15, 2015 15:01 AM

      You would think that someone as intelligent as you are would know how to correctly spell your name!

        Jan 15, 2015 15:02 AM

        His name is Chinese means personal image. Hope he keeps a good image.

          Jan 15, 2015 15:03 AM

          in not is

      Jan 15, 2015 15:48 PM

      Good thoughts from Trader Rog on the Swiss Franc and it’s relationship to the Euro. I remember it was the strong currency of Europe, like the Sterling in 2008 -2011. It was only when it pegged its currency to the Euro at 1.20 that it lost’s it’s safe haven appeal. Now, indirectly, it may regain some of that status again, but it is way out of balance at present and will need to settle in a bit and stabilize.

    Jan 15, 2015 15:02 AM

    in not is

    bj
    Jan 15, 2015 15:28 PM

    Thnx Roger,
    Good summary.
    Not exactly a black swan; but sometimes all it takes is a yodel to set off an avalanche. Wow, you can’t make this stuff up–too mind boggling. In the end, it will be every country for itself, but only after they throw all the grandmas under the bus.

    Jan 15, 2015 15:29 PM

    Gold in Canadian funds is now $1509.85, The World is in a deflationary abyss and I have been saying this for over 10 years. DT

      Jan 15, 2015 15:38 PM

      Canada not The US has a more stable economy to reflect the real values that will show gold’s worth.

    Jan 15, 2015 15:36 PM

    People can have university degrees coming out of their Ying Yang but it doesn’t mean a tinker’s dam when it comes to common sense.

    bb
    Jan 15, 2015 15:51 PM

    True DT.
    Right now I am wrestling with should I be keeping so much cash, we are in a deflationary environment, but gold is so shiny, actualy I think gold is money so why keep cash. Just mentioning it as Im in Canada.
    We literally could experience retailers sold out, as Rickards says, get it now before its gone.
    Maybe I should just go fishing for a couple years.

      Jan 15, 2015 15:07 PM

      bb, take our present finance minister Joe Oliver, he has finally admitted that maybe the falling price of oil will impact the Canadian Governments attempt to balance our budget, this after having repeatedly saying that we were on track to have a balanced budget. It’s too bad Flaherty wasn’t still around.

        Jan 15, 2015 15:31 PM

        DT, there is no way to balance budget this year. With so many people take money from the government and so much social programs, high commodity price and low unemployment is the key to balance budget. We haven’t been able to do it since 2008. However, we are still way better than other G7 countries.

    Jan 15, 2015 15:20 PM

    A gold back currency is the right thing to do but the real problem with our society is that we should treat white collar criminals the same as the others.

    bb
    Jan 15, 2015 15:37 PM

    I don’t think dropping oil is going to harm the country as much as some people are afraid of. Alberta,sask and nfld but overall other industries should benefit.
    Also, oil will go back up again.

    Jan 15, 2015 15:47 PM

    Most humorous how so many are referring to the Swiss Franc issue as a black swan event, and Roger says it will have an impact on the markets for quite some time. I don’t necessarily disagree, but it sure didn’t affect the markets too much today.

    Jan 16, 2015 16:30 AM

    I am surprised that no one bring up string dollar hammers gold theorem for many days. I guess people will believe something when it works and conveniently forget about it when it doesn’t. LOL

      Jan 16, 2015 16:31 AM

      Strong dollar. Hate iphone

        Jan 16, 2015 16:40 AM

        Hi, is there any way to stop auto correct in iPhone but still leave spell checked on?