Tuesday Morning Views from Chris
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GOLD BOTTOM 1999 ! 20 july 252,8 $ BUY BUY BUY !
gold looking goooooooooooooood………………………………
There was ABSOLUTELY no doubt that s___ was going to hit the fan…everything that you can do to a FIAT CURRENCY to screw it up has been done…this is a global CATASTROPHE on an epic scale….GOLD and only GOLD (and silver) will solve the problems when it becomes the anchor of the global economic commerce. FIAT CURRENCY unabated is like the old saying…..ABSOLUTE POWER….CORRUPTS ABSOLUTELY….AND THOROUGHLY…these people in “control” dont give a frickin damn about YOU, YOUR FAMILY or anybody else….eXcept THEMSELVES….GET IT!.. They just dont care…Cory…..huh…..this is a train wreck of epic proportions….you dont like it; I dont like…but we better to LEARN to live with it! Place your bets accordingly! Everything else is total and complete BSSSSSSSSSSSS!!!!!!
NICE RANT…………SD……………..:)
Chris – Great points with the dichotomy between 2014 and 2015, and how critical events were viewed in the last 2 years versus the last few months. There are many strange alliances, government/bank decisions, and we live in a world where the balance is shifting.
P.S. – The point about how if so many people have shorted the Euro, that if it pops for some reason, then to cover losses, people could sell gold to raise capital. I think that would just be the reason for a technical correction for a about week, before the last few weeks thrust up with resistance at 1347 and 1382.
I pretty much agree, Shad – in fact, it’s happening to some extent this morning with the leaked (?) QE news causing the euro to rally and gold to sell off. But I agree that a correction in gold won’t be major, and could be short-lived. Everyone needs to inflate (except the Swiss) – witness the B o C surprise rate cut this morning and the loonie now crashing
What questions Al?
Sorry Bird, what are you referring to?
Your last comment on the thread you said you had a lot of questions and send in the answers. Maybe I misunderstood. I will go listen to it again.
My question was your collective opinions on whether or not this is a bottom for gold.
No, The bottom is not in Al.
Recorded and date stamped
“No, The bottom is not in Al., Birdman, 20Jan2015”
The (1137-1140) area touched in November is now the recent bottom and major area of support. Whether it is the final bottom remains to be seen, as there still could be one last wash-out phase this summer. I remember a year ago when everyone was sure that 1280 was the bottom, then everyone was sure 1253/1250 was the bottom. then 1177-1180, and so on down to 1137.
It would be great to get confirmation closes above the 1347 and then 1382. Then we could finally say the bottom is in. Until that happens, it is all speculation.
It should be noted that there really has been quite a bit of strength from the move out of November to present, but it didn’t look like much until the last 2 weeks where we have made up some ground. It is critical for gold to make new highs above 1347 and then 1382, and it would be ideal for this to happen before the larger corrective move starts in spring/summer. Then we’ll need to gage the strength of the corrective move at that time and see if 1137 is back on the table, or it if really is the bottom. That move down could prove to be a great long term entry point or a place to add to positions.
We still have some time left on the current up-leg though to get there. In the very near future (end of this week or beginning of next) it would be normal to have a smaller week long correction back down to knock some of the froth out of the market. Then there should be one last thrust up for a few weeks until a larger correction, where we see if the 1137 bottom holds. It will be interesting to observe how it plays out.
No problem at all Brian. That’s my call because that’s what my system tells me. If the method fails then I will be wrong. I just don’t think it will fail.
MATTHEW – THAT IS HILARIOUS!!!….HAHAHAHA!!
FOOD FOR THOUGHT…………Since the German’s received more gold this year, than they were told to expect, does this mean prices might be going up. ??????
Anybody got $6 ….so we can throw it on the pile ….and get gold over $1300
I will borrow 6 $ ! GOLD LOOKING NICE J,,,,,,,THE LONG,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,OOTB i
DONT WORRY..JER…it will get there and then some!!!
No worries here SD……………I am just getting tired of the up and down and back fill, BS………….
I’ve called the bottom 11/07/2014 here, in this program. When we invest in gold, we have to feel the market sentiment, no where the market is going. You have to look at the news and ask your self: hummm…….this is not good, I have to buy gold, or not. It is all about feeling…..
Me too:
On November 7, 2014 at 2:48 pm,
Matthew says:
Stewie, GDXJ picked an interesting level to reverse from this week (see chart). The extraordinary volume spike is just what we want see at a major turn.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=GDXJ&p=W&yr=5&mn=0&dy=0&id=p77959343309&a=371238287
LPG, too:
On November 7, 2014 at 10:26 am,
LPG says:
So far, spot gold has put a double reversal, which is TYPICALLY (not always) very meaningful when a long move has developed (either on the way up or on the way down).
Quite a bullish move, IMHO.
Best to all,
LPG
Matthew,
Thanks for giving me some credit…. buuuuuuut…. I think it is NOT warranted/deserved.
To be clear, I believe credit is not warranted as I NEVER said gold’s bottom was “in” (and by the bottom, I mean T-H-E bottom).
Simple reason for never saying that is that I never had any clue if and still have no clue of wether it’s in or not. Maybe I look like an idiot by saying this, but that’s fine with me – I can live with that ignorance 🙂 .
When I don’t know, I prefer to say “I don’t know”…but meanwhile, I try to be PREPARED for various scenarios (that’s why I emphasized in the past back in late Noc or December I think that IF gold was about to make a new lower low, I have firepower “reserved” to deploy more capital).
I stay “open-minded” to the possibility of a lower low Consequence: get the hell out RIGHT NOW ! don’t wait to “see” if the fire gets bigger – coz normally it does given the big amount of wind.
*********
To go back to October/Nov 2014, the “funny” thing, is that, as I have written in the past, I didn’t try to time the bottom at that time as I believe that calling bottoms and tops consistently is a futile exercise – a fool’s one – and anyway, I’m not good at that.
I just tried to buy according to my game plan (which was: try to buy when things get really ugly) – and try to stick to it as much as possible (I had about 20% slippage on it, my own fault). I started deploying capital a few days ahead gold 2014 bottom on that Nov 7, and for 2 to 3 days, my additional capital deployments were down – which created a little bit of doubt in my mind… but not too much [Remember what I used to sign a few weeks back? “When going through hell, keep going”. ( 🙂 )].
I deployed capital when I thought various assets were good VALUE given their massacred prices back then. I didn’t try to buy ahead of a bottom or at a bottom.
We shall ALWAYS remember that 1) the lower the prices the better the risk/reward, and 2) the lower the price, the better the value of what we’re buying.
I know these 2 points seem very stupid to remember… but I believe that many of us fail to act accordingly when favorable circumstances present themselves (again: favorable circumstances when I want to buy something = when price is going down down down, not when it is going up up up).
Without timing the bottom of 2014 properly/accurately, I’ve been able to sleep pretty well over the past 2.5mths given my stocks and options purchases (late Nov for the latter).
That’s good enough for me. Things could have been better, granted (remember, 20% slippage), but investing is a long-run exercise, where one has to learn from mistakes/slippages (and try to reduce them, IMHO).
As long as there’s 1) honesty in self-reflection about one’s actions/inaction, 2) a proper process in place for investing (or trading), 3) risk management, ingredients are there to make sizeable returns over-time. I don’t mention “hard/dilligent work” as it’s a given.
Thanks again for the unwarranted props Matthew, and GL to all investing/trading.
LPG
Great comment, Mr take no credit! You actually should by the way!
Al’s right LPG, you should!
Just realized a good chunk of my post is missing.
This portion…
I stay “open-minded” to the possibility of a lower low Consequence: get the hell out RIGHT NOW ! don’t wait to “see” if the fire gets bigger – coz normally it does given the big amount of wind.”
…is not how it should read as there are a few lines missing before “get the hell out”.
I had to initially rewrite this post due to a computer glitch… I suspect I missed this glitch too.
Apologies.
LPG
Need to go on the record saying I sold the remaining of my GLD Jan 2016 options this morning just after the open – Gold could not go through 1305 and seemed caped.
Then we got the leak from the ECB, as per:
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-01-21/ecbs-qe-leaked-board-proposses-€50-billion-bond-monetization-month-dow-jones-reports
Net net +97% on these. Not the triple (200%) I expected, but I want to re-enter these calls if we correct MEANINGFULLY on gold (by this, I mean if we go below $1200 again).
Also sold 1/2 of my SLV Jan 2016 Calls – for about 70% profit.
Here too, it’s far from the triple I envisaged on them, but I’ll take that performance for the moment. Will re-add to this positions if silver goes back to the $15-$16 zone again.
GL to all investing/trading.
LPG
I’ve called many things including wti oil 35/40 and no.. Called triple bottom to be broken within a day or two..
How about al and cory give some recognition on the mike:)
HeHeHe
Hey, keep Cory off of Mike and on the mic!
lol
lol !
Nice one Matthew.
Glen, it is good you called the lower oil price so poeple who believed you did not load up oil too early. But we may be entering the area we can start to load. If Oil enters 40-, I will start. Here is a good article refering to Bakken Shale oil. It is ugly. I am in this business so I know it is close to the truth. These oil will come off line or gobbled up by the big guys. Buy some solid companies like XOM, COP and Shell. Don’t buy some little shale company. No Chesapeake.
Lawrence,
Thank you! I could not disagree with you. I personally had end of this month a good time to start buying in. By the way lawrence could you gladly share 1-2 oil companies that are solid and are the goldcorps/newgold’s/newmounts of the oil sector.. Great board of directors/management team.
I’ve shared Iamgold as part of my portfolio hoping someone can give me a gem on that sector. Thanks and well financed as well.
To be honest, I have been light on oil since I don’t want to put all eggs into one basket. I like the following:
Conoco Phillips (Solid in finance with some exposure to shale, 5th largest oil gas in US)
Canadian Natural Resource Ltd (Solid company and new refinery is being built. Great management)
Husky Oil (integrated company with Asian parts, owned by Li Ka Shing )
Encana (Largest Canadian natural gas company but balancing with more and more to oil)
Exxon (too expensive so I don’t have but Buffett has)
The ones a little more speculating:
Suncor (a lot of oil sand with some conventional oil plus refinery and retail as well)
More speculating:
Canadian Oil Sand Corporation (totally Oil Sand with an upgrader. It owns 30% of Syncrude founded by Exxon Mobile in Canada decades ago)
There are a lot more good oil gas companies than gold and silver. This sector runs more on profit instead of loan. Only exception is small shale companies, they are run by the financial bubble machine, e.g. a lot of loan.
There is also Canadian Oil/Gas ETF (XEG), Oil Sand ETF (CLO). US got a bigger one. I think is XOP.
Lawrence thanks that is way more then I expected.
Lawrence disregard i just read you last sentence lol. Thx
Lawrence we are on the same page. I told stewie if we can get a 38-42 weekly close, start loading up.
Agree. We might be early but looking from the reaction of Oil gas equities, some big guys are loading already. I heard Buffett just decided into go into EPC companies. They are the riskist companies in oil gas. It means he has absolute confidence that the oil slump is temporary. These comapnies include Halliburton, Schlumberger and baker hughes, and a lot of little shrimps. I don’t dare to touch them since they could go down by 80% but if the judgement is right, you can make a fortune.
I think Bufffett is going to take over a lot of these companies. He can buy with cents on the dollar.
Good idea Glen,
Look for it tomorrow.
Two things we need to fix on this blog.
1. A section where one can click there name and archives come up just for one’s name.
2. Ability to put up polls..I think it good to take polls from time to time.
Al?cory?
Certainly, Glen
Look for that shortly,
Al
Thanks a bunch..Al
Also stop the auto play. It is frustrating. Everytime I open the page, someone starts to talk.
+1
Okay, from now on a listener will have to start it by themselves.
Thanks. I sometimes browse using company PC, auto play adds data size.
Done!
+1 lol
Al & Cory, why don’t you purge the spam that “franky” and “the long” leave here all the time? They’re clearly paid to make us (“goldbugs”) look like morons…
“The long” is good and I think Franky is a kid.
My thoughts are similar Lawrence.
Thanks
I mean give Franky a play ground
lol to funny
Thanks for the back up LAWRENCE…..APPRECIATE………………J.
j your cool with me 🙂
thanks glenfidish……………….j
Hi Catfish,
First of all I am in your camp.
Jerry is okay and has been around for a long time.
Franky is about ready to be off.
No avail, he can use Xing Xiang. If you block XX, he can use XXX
lol your quite the comedian lawrence
I usually don’t do this. I am in good mood today. Thanks
You are too kind Al.
The block would be on the IP address Lawrence. So changing email names would not help unless you changed your location too. If they had the right software they could block all of Belgium if they chose!
THANKS BIG AL …….APPRECIATE THE THOUGHTS…………….J
You deserve it!
Owl
thanks again…………………………j
HEY CATFISH……………I think I have about 3700 days on this site…..anytime there are more than a handful who desire me to go…………….so be it………….j…..
Jerry, that is a really long time. Wow, I had no idea. Are you on salary yet? 😉
Bird…….I do not need a salary, only had a salary once in my lifetime, and that only lasted one summer……but, I really appreciate what BIG OWL has put together, this allows everyone to share their views, right or wrong, that is why I have been around for
such a long time………………………best……………….j………
Good one catfish…but some of us look kind of foolish with no extra help at all! Referring to myself of course!
You, my friend, need absolutely no help!
Matt,
These gaps are driving me insane..You know how I feel about gaps..What ya think buddy? How about a chart showing what could happen 🙂
Matt,
Is on chart strike lol..Not one chart today or maybe i missed it.
Another inverse head and shoulders forming on the 6hr chart..1310-1320?
Peter,
Are we having another one of those “At 3pm January 20th 2015″ HUI bottomed!” type of moment?
Great post CT – Many thanks, A. Probe mines on a tear right now.
Run for your life…
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/obama-channels-inner-robin-hood-as-rich-get-richer-154533477.html
If only the poor sheeple understood that such talk should scare them more than anyone.
Matthew, we have more billionaires in London I believe than in any other major city worldwide. Just 80 super billionaires now hold more wealth than half the world’s population. Run for your life may begin to apply to these obscenities as the peasants rediscover their pitchforks and worse. Best, A
Are they mostly Saudi and Russian billionaires, Rev?
I believe so BM, A
Someday that could happen, Andrew.
I don’t know if I’m reading you right, Andrew, but I hope you aren’t suggesting that even MORE government meddling is the solution. When the government plays Robbing Hoodlum, it does so at the direction of the wealthiest people of all. They take from the semi-rich and give to the connected filthy rich.
The vast majority of the people they target actually got what wealth they have through hard work and providing value. Do the sheeple really want cut off their nose to spite their face by attacking the risk-taking, hard-working heroes that provide them with jobs? Apparently they do —and always have. Ignorance is a nasty thing.
Extreme wealth concentration is the result of collectivism (which includes socialism, communism, fascism, crony capitalism/corporatism). If the peasants knew anything, they would direct their pitchforks at the governments and central banks that work together to transfer society’s wealth into the hands an undeserving few.
It is very ironic that the masses look to the very people who did NOT earn their money to “protect” them from those who did. They have this mysterious notion that someone’s legitimate wealth somehow comes at their expense or limits their ability to obtain wealth themselves. Due to economic illiteracy, the overwhelming majority can’t grasp that it is the government itself that limits opportunity and prosperity the most. The sheeple vote against themselves constantly but are completely oblivious to this fact. When the collectivists are done, the good guys will be made poor and the masses that made it happen will be even worse off.
Sorry about the rant.
Best to you,
M
Matthew,
Outstanding thoughts and well said. Most of the time people will vote in a way that will effectively harm themselves in the end and you can’t convince them otherwise.
The word “sheeple” has never been more profound, meaningful and appropriate than it is in today’s modern world.
V
The manifesto according to Matthew.
Thanks Vortex. Sheeple are damn scary so I try to zig when they zag. What else can you do?
Completely agree Matthew that the pitchforks should be aimed directly up the backsides of those politicians who have direct control over the banksters!
Tax is part of financial repression. It will get unbearable if not already. We in Alberta should have lower tax than most places. I am still pissed when I compare the gross pay and net pay.
Looks to me silver is also peaking. It should retrace all the way back to 15 and eventually lower. To me this is another short opportunity coming. What it means is that we saw another head-fake on gold and the troops got wound up like tops again just in time for a reversal. Tomorrow will tell.
Gut is telling me the bottom is not in.
!etihs yloH
my PSLV turned green today.
just another 25 or so securities to go.
then what?
oh right, OIL
ANYBODY NOTICE ……candian dollar and gold………..is double the gain of the dollar gain in percentage terms……..than the dollar’s small gain ……………………GO DT…………………………..J..
Would be ironic if USD makes it’s way to 120 or higher (it was there in ’01/’02) and gold/usd goes no where. While gold/cad goes to $5,000
OUCH – don’t want to go there.
old usd chart:
http://blog.afraidtotrade.com/long-term-structure-of-the-us-dollar-index/
I’ll be coming to Canada….via Lake Erie, if that starts to happen……………………
click on company name & come up with archives…
thanks
We need to bring back business to America, America’s Business is “Business”. Whatever happened to the Heyday of the businessman!
Healthcare and quota systems…………………………
“Senate Republicans today blocked two attempts to amend legislation forcing approval of the Keystone XL pipeline that would have required the project be built with U.S.-produced steel and that the oil be used only in the U.S.
“A TransCanada (NYSE:TRP) spokesperson tells Bloomberg that 52% of the steel that is already purchased comes from a U.S. plant., with the remaining needed materials to be “pursued in the U.S.”
“Meanwhile, TRP says it has filed paperwork in nine Nebraska counties to acquire access to the remaining land needed to construct, operate and maintain the pipeline, in its first steps since the state’s high court last week removed a major legal barrier for the planned route.”
~seeking alpha
Al quote by you ” gold has bottomed, well at least for the time being”.
Well Al, either it has, or it hasn’t. Which is it? None of this, wishie washie statement you just made. COME ON AL.
Peter
Peter,
Where have you been all day? What are your views regarding the miners?
Busy busy busy Glen, I have a sideline business. Gone all day.
Let me catch up to the charts and I’ll give you my take tomorrow before the market opens.
Splendid action today 🙂
Peter
Already offer that, Sally
Not a wishy washy statement at all. A true statement!
Al
You asked for a poll and you responded by saying “i think gold has bottomed” and then you go on to say ” I believe gold has bottomed at least for the time being”.
Al go back and listen to yourself on the audio. Has gold bottomed or hasn’t please clearify your position.
Thank you
Peter
Peter, I like you to be tough on Gary. No problem. Please be lenient on our poor old Al. If he gets an heart attack, we lose this site 🙂
Al
Its sounds like you’re snorting white powder at the start of this audio 🙂
Peter
Looks like gold and silver are doing what people don’t expect.
Peter….ha ha….loved it.
Gold up above 1300. Just wish GDXJ would be outperforming rather than tamely rising of late. When is the QE announcement by the ECB? Greece? Do we expect gold to lower on the news or fly even higher?
You know what Biggus….they have us going in circles right now and I don’t think anybody knows what the hell will happen next. There are theories at both extremes of the spectrum. I say, go with your gut instincts. Otherwise its a 50/50 crap shoot.
Gold takes out 1300 – 1015 am GMT
Got my “STARS” ticket.
Don’t know what I’m going to do with a C$972,000 (U$803,305) house in Edmonton.
Anyone interested in a pile of plastic for, say, 10 platinum maples?
gold up another C$18
now C$1585
why am I not excited?
Look it this way. You have protected yourself from dollar devaluation, off course canadian dollar. I am sure cnd$ will come back. I just sold some CEF.A. It is up quite a bit. I am going to buy some oil/gas.
Mark my word, oil will spike way past last year’s high sometime in the next year or so.
I personally think Bank of canada has two more bullets left to reduce up to .25.
Same exact thing happened in 2009. I think the floor to loonie is here and if not 77 is a very strong hold. Oil,loonie,gold will all rally at some point together giving tsx a good year imo. I just happen to think gold bottomed first.
+1 glen, I agree.
I think BOC has to be careful not to trigger loss of confidence in cnd$ and make sure there is no inflation since we import a lot. If it wants to devalue the currency, it can do a lot more such as buy US dollar in the FX market by printing canadian $ like China has been doing for years. But doing this will piss off US. I think Harper will do just enough to stable the economy not to send cnd$ to the ground. It take years to consolidate confidence. JIMHO.
If they drop the rate to .25, I will renew my mortgage. I may get 2.5% or less.
Personally I don’t know where the loonie will go. I guess if oil price stays under 40 for half a year, it may go down to .70. But I don’t consider it is very likely.
I have my eye on a hundred shares of XOM below $80
P&F bearish price objective $70
recent price $92
waiting for Glen’s $30ish oil
then .. maybe back to $75
http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/gallery.html?XOM
Maybe buying a couple Canadian oil gas companies as well. the lower canadian dollar may save most of them
Already have CNQ and BTE – under water.
also LRE.to what a playground slide that sucker is – gonna ride it to zero
http://tinyurl.com/kke5hus
CNQ is very solid
One good thing about Long Run Ex is the insider buying.
https://canadianinsider.com/node/7?menu_tickersearch=LRE+|+Long+Run+Exploration
Nice looking house, Irwin. I didn’t get the part about the plastic though.
The last time I walked through a house under construction, I was astounded at how little “real” material was used. Even the floor joists were multiple layers of particle board.
So I’m thinking that the house pictured likely has plastic plumbing; fake wood studs, rafters, joists; the “stone” work out front and siding is prolly vinyl. Heck I wouldn’t be surprised if the windows are plexiglass.
Perhaps a cynical exaggeration, but I’d say the place is over 75% petroleum based ie plastic.
You will see things you never seen before ! Greece stays in the EURO ! Day only make the EUROPEAN POPULATION MORE PORE ! BUY BUY GOLD !