Comments from Gary
Click download link to listen on this device: Download Show
Thanks Shad
There is a bull-bear battle going on today that I think the bears are going to lose. Here’s an example:
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=AXU&p=D&yr=1&mn=1&dy=0&id=p28522009743&a=377183655
Matt you might be right. Bo agrees with you. Bo update:
“Gold January 2015: The short term cycle low arrived 1/14/2014 at $1225 and again 1/15/2015 at $1226. Gold, Silver
and Platinum are all on a BUY, next short term cycle top expected January 26‐27, 2015. Expect many more days
straight UP!
Gold, Platinum and now Silver have confirmed Bull Market Trends last week by making higher highs above their
respective December 2014 tops. A Bull Market defined: Higher highs and higher lows.
Golden Fireworks ahead, $1300 is expected to break for good tomorrow 1/22/2015 and continue running straight up
into January 26‐27, 2015. The next 2‐days are expected to be big days upwards for ALL metals!
UPDATED CYCLE DAY COUNT: Last week, January 15, 2015 was a FINAL Entry Point for all metals. Gold, Silver and
Platinum are all expected to run higher into January 26 – 27, 2015 before any type of a short term pause can be
expected.
Updated Cycle Turn Dates*:
1. 1/13 ‐ Resistance $1244
2. 1/15 ‐ Cycle low / Support at $1215 ‐ $1220
3. 1/26 ‐ 1/27 – Short Term Cycle high ‐ [NOT an Intermediate or Final Cyclical TOP]
February forward for Subscribers only
(*Turn Dates can be +/‐ 1 day)
Legal & Disclaimer
The above represents the opinion and analysis of Mr. Polny, based on data available to him, at the time of writing. Mr. Polny’s opinions are his own, and are not a recommendation or an offer to
buy or sell securities and/or commodities. Mr. Polny is an independent analyst who receives no compensation of any kind from any groups, individuals or corporations. As trading and investing
in any financial markets may involve serious risk of loss, Mr. Polny recommends that you consult with a qualified investment advisor, one licensed by appropriate regulatory agencies in your legal
jurisdiction and do your own due diligence and research when making any kind of a transaction with financial ramifications. Although an experienced analyst, Mr. Polny is not a Registered
Securities Advisor. Therefore Mr. Polny’s opinions on the markets, stocks and commodities are his own and can not be construed as a solicitation to buy and sell securities and/or commodities.
2
Risk vs. Reward as of 1/16/2015.
Maximum Risk to the downside $1225 range.
Reward is hundreds of dollars to the upside.
The Gold November 6, 2014 low at $1130 is a MAJOR CYCLE LOW, the December 31, 2014 / January 1, 2015 low at
$1167 is a HIGHER LOW, the January 13, 2014 high is a HIGHER high. All precious (Gold, Silver & Platinum) have
confirmed a New Bull Market Trend.
On a side note, interesting but cycles have lined up with the EU announcement for tomorrow 1/22/2015.”
Stewie,
Although I have in the past made a remark or two towards mr polny and his calls, I have realized I should have been more pleasant. His calls are way out there but in reality he may end up being right towards the long haul. I just happen to think his timing was off by a tad but I believe the consensus in here not being bird would be one of on the right track.
forgive my spelling.
I agree on gold needing to break 1347 and then after that 1382 to confirm a change in the direction from the 3+ years of bear market. However, the next few days may get a bit crazy and we may push down to 1250-1260, before resuming the uptrend for the intermediate cycle.
I personally think that the next few days will definitely get a little crazy, Shad!
Prepare to start up the whip-saws in all the markets!!
Everyone has been waiting for about a week for Euro situation tomorrow, the PMI numbers get reported on Friday, and then the Greek vote on Sunday. That should be enough variables for some wild swings each day from the pent up cash waiting to be deployed, and covering directional bets that go sour. I am sitting on the sidelines until the beginning of next week unless a particular market gets an over-extended move.
Not a bad idea Shad.
Cory, you might also have caught the BOC saying that they are anticipating the country will enter recession by mid 2015 and that factored in the decision. GDP growth got a downward revision on expectations. The whole world is slowing down together in front of our eyes. Housing is not going to be spared in Vancouver this time around. I think their number is finally up.
I disagree bird,
Boc said the same thing and did the same thing in 2009 with rates and we all know what went on to happen with gold/miners. Same recipe in my books. Same body language bird. There is a trend change this time around. I know its hard to believe after so many years. The central banks have there backs to the wall this time.
Sorry Glen….which part did you disagree with? That housing would not fall or that the BOC is predicting a recession?
Disregard Bird. I misunderstood.
If it falls in Vancouver, a lot of people will be seriously hurt!
Hope your right on Van I mean Hongcouver. Man this place has been ruined over the last 20..
big money bank stocks struggling . take a look at bank of america stock. Big banks and brokers were to much involved in currency trading. very risky behavior. We as consumers are at risk. I would advise people to keep thier bank deposits in smaller local banks or credit unions. Also to avoid keeping everything in one bank or brokerage account. Just in case one of them goes bankrupt or suppends service.
Great comment, Scott!
Good commentary guys.
Stay tuned.
Peter
how come Gary doesnt talk about Chindia gold & silver buying… or is he only technical..?
Pretty much a technician, Sally.
Cory
Your comments on trading the gold shares and how it would make you uneasy.
To each his own.
First of all the miners have a tremendous tail wind with the over the cliff oil price, along with the increasing gold price. This does add to your confidence in trading this sector, but more importantly the technicals are ALL flashing green and the fundamentals have all aligned.
As for sleeping at night I have never had any problem with sleeping at night. Mainly because I insist on the use of stops to keep the emotion out of my trading.
I have to say that there are two very important aspects of trading
1) The entry
and
2) The position of the stops and this one is very stratigic and must be constantly tinkered with rising suport levels and trendle lines (very very very important).
That is why I commented on Gary statement of keeping a close stop, totally totally wrong, but again to each his own. I have alot of experience with this and you have to let the market express itself and let it tell you if it is holding support, or let the market tell you it is breaking support period..
I apprieciate Gary’s opinion on stops, but my experience tells me different.
So tonight I will definately have no problem sleeping tonight Cory 🙂
It is tomorrows statement from Dragi which might throw some volitility into the price action and stop positioning is extra important.
Peter
Guys this ECB f…en stinks to me. Gold has got today shooting star candle reversal.
I don’t like this, First it was miners now gold formed classic reversal candle. If ECB was positive we would not be getting reversal candle stick.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$GOLD&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&id=p20780877494
Stewie
Yes the gold market posted a topping candle but it still needs to confirm the break down., we need to see the price action tomorrow or the day after. If we go higher on the news after posting a topping candle that mean the market is very bullish. If we break down look for support at 1240 -1255 region, and that would correct the overbought condition of the indicators which would be health for the market.
Have faith Stewie.
Peter
+1
+3
Look closely at the volume as well stewie..Recently on down days, the volume has been dismal. It is still showing me bulls are winning this battle thus far.
Armstrong chimes in… Gold – The Week of January 19th – Here We Are
http://armstrongeconomics.com/2015/01/21/gold-the-week-of-january-19th-here-we-are/
Here’s the reasonable part that actually matters:
“A daily closing back below 1284 will warn of a retest of support. A closing on Friday below 1287 will also warn of at least a temporary high. A closing back below 1255 will signal a correction is now likely.”
Matt what support are you talking about if 1284 is broken? What number?
Glen, those are Martin’s words from the link above.
OK disregard.
TBT looks good here. If you’re into that sorta thing 😉
Never really looked at it but will keep an eye on it now.
Thanks.
Hui is playin and toying with us as to go down and get the gaps?
Hard to say (more like impossible), but risk is definitely substantially elevated. However, I can’t be a heavy seller here based on what I’m seeing. Of course any buying I do will be kept to select tiny juniors. I picked up one yesterday that is up 125% overnight on almost 2M shares.
Check out the volume spike at the top —that was LPG. It IS cause for short term concern. Tread lightly.
lol,
Nice trade..
To be clear, in my little joke that LPG was responsible for that volume, I meant on the sell side (smart)!
Btw, SGDM now has a P&F price objective of $34.50 😮
I gotcha Matt 🙂
Gary,
Your scenario of dollar parabolic up to touch 94 seems to be happening. I think there is a blow of top/bottom in currency happening as i type. Could turn now or next week. But it feels like soon.
Good thoughts on currencies & commodities today guys.