ScotiaMocatta Precious Metals 2015 Forecast
Direct from Scotia bank is the bank’s 2015 precious metals forecast. The report provides a forecast for gold taking into account the macro and fundamental factors while also touching on the technicals.
They are one of the gangsters working with GS and JPM
Did you read their report, Lawrence? Some of it sounds like it was written by a Gold-bug.
I read the summary.
I will will read the rest later. But I never care about Scotia’s opinion anyway, I do have some of their silver certificate. I may take physical out at anytime.
They really can’t forecast that far out. These banks will just play both sides of the market with manipulation.
US has become Saudi Arabia in gold. It export increasing amount of gold to Asia.
http://news.goldseek.com/GoldSeek/1422457440.php
How much gold has left. Saudi sells oil it produces. But US does not produce that much gold.
Oil is about to drop hard. Glad I sold my XOP yesterday as it is down sharply. Went to all cash. It looks like the whole market is about to fall hard. Apple is holding it up so far.
It has not broken its uptrend support (which currently is about 45.35) and has bounced off of the 55 EMA on the 60 minute chart (13 EMA on the daily). My 60 min and daily charts both say buy the dips.
I don’t own it but probably should.
We could wait a bit. It is hard but we have to be patient.
The more I look at it, the more I like what I see. It does have a small 1.2% gap on the 21st, but buying some around the uptrend support makes sense to me. One of my indicators just flipped to a positive reading for the first time since early July.
I just bought a little at 45.37 and hope it goes lower. A move to 43.74 would fill the gap.
I have an order for XEG, I think it is Canadian equivalent of XOP. But it need to come down another 5%. I bought some Canadian Oil Sand today. It pays good dividend but it could fall hard if oil drop more or the current price last long. I am waiting for major buy in the next couple of months.
Thanks for sharing those, I’m going to take a look. Knowing that you know the sector, I saved the companies that you mentioned the other day for further evaluation. 🙂
mtthew, the list I posted are the ones I like. The only one I feel a little uncomfortable is Encana. It got too much debt due to the gas weakness in the last few years. However, the production composition is moving along the right direction. Sometimes nothing is perfect.
Thank you.
Not holding any XOP as oil is breaking down and xop headed to 43 or so.
If the reason for weak oil price is taht it is created by US and Saudi to ruin Russia, it would be a good buy at this price or lower price. If it is due to economy, it may not be a good buy. Even Obama admitted that he did it to punish Russia, a lot of people choose not to believe him and media is certainly not reporting that way and focus on economic reasons.
Did Obama really say that? Several people mentioned the same thing but I have never seen anything official in print. Did that info come from one of the gold blogs by any chance or was it real news?
I did read the interview abstract that Obama said low oil price is part of strategy to weaken Russia and the the next day, state department released many sanctions against Russia. It was published by a British broadcast. But I did know Saudi doubled drilling from early last year and US increased oil output drastically as well. I heard Saudi news from my tenant, the man works in Saudi involved in well service. He said twice as many wells were drilled since early last year so they made good money by doing overtime and his company made a lot of money. I no longer believe in coincident in market.
Bought the dips 3 times and sold. Oil is hanging by a thread..
It looked to me like a pretty good report.
I thought so too. This was an interesting sentence from the report…
Interestingly, whereas the widely held view is that the Fed’s programme of QE has
weakened the dollar, in reality the dollar reached a low before QE started. This implies that all the money printing that the Fed has been doing since late 2008, which has seen its balance sheet rise from less than one trillion dollars to almost 4.5 trillion dollars, has not weakened the dollar. Perhaps because the Fed’s action supported the US treasury market, treasuries were seen as the ultimate safe- haven and foreign buying of US bonds underpinned the dollar as a result.
Re: “This implies that all the money printing that the Fed has been doing since late 2008, which has seen its balance sheet rise from less than one trillion dollars to almost 4.5 trillion dollars, has not weakened the dollar.”
They left out one important word: “Yet.”
I am not saying that this report is propaganda, but it is generally true that good propaganda is always convincing and loaded with enough truths to be credible to most people AND to provide cover for when “they” are wrong.
Actually I agree with you on the word “yet”. The mechanics of how the expansion is unfolding means there will be a delay in the obvious devaluation. Wee don’t know how many years it might take to actually break out. Getting back to your example the other day about the gold price and the Fed’s balance sheet we note that a significant amount of time passed before gold responded in the very early 1960’s. So I am not in disagreement that a relationship exists but only that we cannot time when inflation breaks out because the correlation is offset. This time won’t be a mirror of the past of course. A lot will depend on how hard the Fed presses ahead on their inflation targets.
I would call this mass stupidity or moral hazard. When confidence collapses, it collapses hard since there is nothing behind it.
Re: “treasuries were seen as the ultimate safe- haven and foreign buying of US bonds underpinned the dollar as a result.”
Notice that they have just stated what appears to be fact but did not say whether or not they agree that treasuries are the ultimate safe haven. They were “SEEN” as…
Gents. I believe The Japs Chinnese and UK have been large supporters of US treasuries. I don’t have the stats but when everyone and their dog was talking dollar crash, there’s many reasons these countries need the U.S. and a solid dollar for trade ect.
Personally I think they got everyone fooled and for good reason.
Dont quote me on numbers here but 17tril in debt China only owns 1.5tril. It’s a fair bit but nothing critical. USA is the engine right now even if it’s missing on a couple cylinder. None of these governments have an interest in seeing anything crash. They are willing to collude at any level or sacrifice whatever it takes.
Bill, the dollar HAS crashed in real terms. That’s why it buys a lot less of most things than it did 15 years ago (never mind its collapse in purchasing power since Nixon or FDR). Even in terms of things that keep falling in price, dollar holders have still been ripped-off since those items have come down a heckuva lot more when priced in gold.
It’s interesting that the Fed’s balance sheet and the gold price have both expanded by about 5-fold since 2000.
You can see that China and Russia are actively removing dollar from their international trade and setting up their own trading system and currency swaps. Before it is ready, China will not pull the plug but what after they feel they are ready. I am sure they don’t intend to crash US but USD may become a burden some day.
Bill, Japs is insulting word and Chinnese is spelled wrong.
Thx Lawrence.
But my hand set is pretty small and takes over now and then.
Example: oh we have no real economy here on these coastal towns so we will relax the immigration laws and now the Chinnese are pouring in buying businesses. Their building a school for them ESL. I married to a Phillipino ( family has been here 35 yrs) but I can’t stand how the Chinnese operate. They are the Borg. Resistance is futile you will be assaulted. Vancouver has been virtually destroyed.
Off course you are free to cut the hand which feeds you
It doesn’t feed me….? Its about growth….If you ani’t burning fuel and pouring concrete the ponzi scheme caves in. Ya see this is the only place anywhere where I know of where there is .07c a liter carbon tax and on airline flights to boot. So these idiotic governments especially in BC contradict themselves all day long…There is nothing sustainable anymore…..
If you are not jealous, you should not against people building your community. BC is too socialist and has been destroying itsself since NDP took power. They are more left wing than communist. They are very anti business. That is why I did not move to BC when I was deciding where to go, I knew for sure what they did is not good for business. It was trying to make everyone poor. When the economy is destroyed, your government is trying to lure other people to come in to help you build an economy but it will fail too if they don’t change.
To be serious their taking over food production and send it to China….They get rid of the locals and bring in their own…Life as we know it will be gone soon…..Where’s I country I can move to and dictate??!
Life as Americans and Canadians know it will be gone and the masses are to blame for it. The “enlightened” ones have never succeeded in constructing a noose that the sheeple would not gladly put their collective heads through.
Well put…everything is being amalgamated by plan…cultures destroyed…
About right. The noose is strung up and awaits the sheep. The greatest transfer of wealth in history is almost here. It all begins when the asset bubble deflates and the country turns into a nation of dispossessed renters. And I am not even trying to be funny. The SHTF moment is so obviously on the horizon it baffle me it escapes the attention of the typical person. But don’t bother warning them. They would not listen anyway.
Bill you should blame your socialist government not Chinese. Chinese did not invade you, they brought you money and paid for the food. Are you trying to export?
You missed my comment of our government? I had a conversation over the carbon Tax scam. What a joke, I’d like to see those idiots run a small business. They have an endless trough call tax slaves….
Its going to reduce fuel consumption they said. LOL what do we do here?? Dig dirty oil out of the ground and sell it to whoever will burn it…I could even breath in some cities in Aisa….and we are going to save the earth with carbon tax?
They relaxed the immigration laws so they can really pour in…They crush local business with endless taxes then give the newbies concessions. Then they come over and ignore regulations and the gov let it slide….It going where its going I can bitch all I want!!
Bill, agree a lot with your comment this time. Actually, the pollution comes from coal in China and other asian countries. This was true at one time in US, Japan and Europe as well. As the economy improves, the percentage of coal burning reduces and oil, gas, nuclear and hydro-power, and hopefuly solar, replace it. This is progress. Carbon tax is a joke. If government is too tough on its economy, the local business shrinks so government has to attact overseas business thinking they can fleece them too. BC has such a great place with a lot of potential. I am not sure why the poor always want government to help them to eat rich. They got their wish though. A lot fo business moved to Alberta and the poor from Alberta move to BC to collect social welfare.
Thanks Lawrence:
Close on some……. In Manilla I don’t even have to ask…they buy old Jap(panese)buses ect ect…there’s no air quality control. EVERY Tricycle there burns more oil than gas I swear!! I almost puked one morning in Manilla…
AND THEN WE ARE ANAL here in BC were I can breath well in the ugliest days in the biggest cities. (small)
The problem with solar as you need a million square miles of them……
We here in BC……SHUT YOU ENGINE OFF your are idling in your 2013 Escort…. think about it it the scheme of things 3 million population and what 90 mil in the Philippines..and what in Mexico city or a 100 Chinese cities………….We are not burning coal but we are getting SCREWED on carbon scam taxes…
Its how governments can screw you and TAX you..Can ya tel I Fukin fed up?!
Fully understood. I worked in a semi governmental organization at one time. The waste is hugh. They have no choice but to collect tax since it is easiest to do. People should protest against tax
Cheers many good points..!!
I think we wasted 200 billion unaccounted for since 1998 of 900 bil.. Not much these days but small population. 30% LOST……
Any way My brother is working for the local Chinese.. ..or maybe not…Fact…. They are demanding credentials of proof to build their Sh%t!!!
to build their new food production buildings in my back yard……..The frickin arrogance of these people.. We have been here 75 yrs BC and 300 yr in Canada. They want to bring in their own…I want to punch them in the face!!! I apologist for venting here in a big way but…..we have building in this coast our whole lives now these newbies are dictating….
YOU WANT TO COME HERE PLAY BY THE RULES WE LIVE WITH…
This is first hand account..
Bill, Since I know the culture I feel from the company management point of view, they will want to use the people they know. Also they are afraid to manage local (white) workers. I think without workers or engineers from China, they cannot operate. However local government should demand majority of the employee to be BC residents. I think the effective way is to organize some demonstrations on the company site. Sine both the company and local government want the business, they may get some compromises. I believe the business should serve our Canadians first.
Thanks Lawrence
Actually they want full control as always. We have been building here for 75 years and have never encountered such BS.
We ecscavate do foundations and erect engineered buildings to code . They question everything. They want everything their way. We are not qualified. Lol
My Flip wife works at the Royal Bank and they come in and are their driving her nuts. If foreigners want to come and do business then they should do like everyone else And respect the local ways and regulations
Try and do that in Hong Kong. You would get the boot in the ass.
Anyway there way more pathetic details. Their just trying to cut out who they can at will. Enough said. All the best.
Gold might finally head to around 1255. A huge drop now.
Why 1250 significant? Because it looks like a nice number?
1255.
Around that area is the 200 day average. About 1254.
smashy smashy smashy
Around 1254 is the last major support from where it took off. If it fails there it is big trouble.
Hmmm. Did we have more trouble when gold dip to 1130 last year?
Howdnit keeping up with reading but I said before. This was your chance to get out. we are most likely heading for major new lows….I just didn’t know the extent of this rally.
I’m not in the bull mode camp.
What scotiamaccata knows more than everybody is how to sell the metal. As for how high the price goes, the won’t tell you even they know