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Selling pressure hitting everywhere

January 29, 2015

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189 Comments
    Jan 29, 2015 29:07 AM

    you cannot be accessed

      Jan 29, 2015 29:13 AM

      Great interview Cory & Gary. I generally agree with Gary’s analysis on many points.

      On the 19th, 20th, and 21st I stated that a correction to the Gold price was expected starting Thursday the 22nd of last week with the ECB announcement and through the PMI numbers reported on Friday, then the Greek vote on Sunday, and the correction would continue into the first few days of this week. When intra-day Gold on the 20th put in a triple top around 1305, and then closed at 1303, that signaled to me that the temporary top was in, and Gold was hitting a ton of resistance at that level. P.S. – I was happy to see the post from LPG that he was in congruence and had reduced his positions as well. LPG is a sharp dude!

      I also forecast that this week would be a further correction where we would see the 1240-1250 range as support to be tested. However, I’ll admit my thoughts fell into the camp that this mini-correction will be short and still rebound quickly into February. My guess was in alignment with Doc’s commentary when he felt the temporary bottom may be this Friday or Monday. I felt that the 1240-1250 level would come into play on Tues or Wed, but it looks like it is taking a little longer to get pushed down than anticipated. Gary may be correct that it will take until next Fridays job report until the bottom is in.

      I still expect 2-4 weeks of uptrend after that for the majority of February in Gold with targets to take out at 1323, 1347, and 1382. March is seasonally a bad month for Gold, so my thoughts are to buy if gold touches below 1250, and then hold into most of the February strength. However, if the 1240 level fails to hold support then all bets are off. Good luck to all.

        Jan 29, 2015 29:41 AM

        Shad not sure of what to think of your post.
        You ended it with a sense of confusion and ambivalence…I guess that’s how most feel currently in this environment.

          Jan 29, 2015 29:48 AM

          Yes, agreed Glenfidish. I am willing to admit my projection was going well until it took gold longer to fall this week than expected. I originally thought Wed would be the low with a bounce at 1240-1250. It is hovering currently around the 1254-1256 level so Docs comment earlier in the week that it may be tomorrow (Friday) or Monday before the short term bottom may be the case.

          Gary’s point was that it may take longer than people think and it may go until next weeks Friday job report to bottom. My point at the end was that I still expect an uptrend to test 1323, and maybe 1347, and optimally 1382 before February is over. However, if this week or next Gold breaks 1240 then 1200 and 1180 come back into play, and it is dubious if Gold will make it to 1347 or above in February before the March madness hits. It is a very nerve-racking market at this point.

            Jan 29, 2015 29:07 AM

            Well said!

            Jan 29, 2015 29:15 AM

            Thank you sir. Now is definitely a good time for a glass of scotch!

          Jan 29, 2015 29:12 AM

          Not sure about the ambivalence Glen, but I do agree with your comment about confusion.

            Jan 29, 2015 29:54 AM

            Fair enough…Enjoy your time Al with Sally ๐Ÿ™‚

            Have a glen!

            Jan 29, 2015 29:55 AM

            I meant kathy ๐Ÿ™‚

            Jan 29, 2015 29:55 AM

            Cory,

            All the best on your day! You deserve it buddy ๐Ÿ™‚

            glen

        Jan 29, 2015 29:11 AM

        Thanks Shad

    Jan 29, 2015 29:09 AM

    GOT IT!!!

      Jan 29, 2015 29:13 AM

      Well done Sally ๐Ÿ™‚

    Jan 29, 2015 29:19 AM

    I think Amazon’s results tonight will be crucial – if they report a poor Christmas then I think it could set off a wave of panic selling. Perhaps Apple did so well because people were buying iphones and little else?

    Jan 29, 2015 29:21 AM

    GDXJ’s next gap will get filled at 26.33 (today’s low so far is 26.38).

      Jan 29, 2015 29:24 AM

      And now it’s been filled. The next one would require a move down to 22.91.

        Jan 29, 2015 29:08 AM

        It’s traced out a H&S by my reckoning. So no problem.

          Jan 29, 2015 29:19 AM

          GDXJ almost looks like it has put in a reversed head and shoulders pattern with the upside down head being on Dec 16th at $21.47. that could put Matthew’s target of $22.91 into play, as I was using the lower Nov 5th target of $22.71 as the other reversed shoulder point.

          If GDXJ gets below $23 then I would be a strong buyer of JNUG for the leverage back up into February. Just a thought.

            Jan 29, 2015 29:27 AM

            Luckily I have been in JDST this week for the leverage down, but will take profits if gold gets below 1250 but stays above 1240.

            Jan 29, 2015 29:29 AM

            I just want to be clear that I do not think 22.91 will be reached. So if it is reached, I’ll be wrong.

            Jan 29, 2015 29:48 AM

            $23 on GDXJ will be reached tomorrow. 1220 on gold will be reached tomorrow.
            Gary is right 100% here. We gotta smash all the bulls first.
            until then
            smashy smashy smashy so she goes.

            Jan 29, 2015 29:27 AM

            I am not sure if below $23 will be reached either, but it does look like a reversed head and shoulder pattern is playing out in GDXJ so I do expect it to go lower than $26 (maybe $24.79) with the lowest target at $22.71. At the $24.79 – $22.71, personally, I’ll be buying JNUG aggressively.

            Jan 29, 2015 29:17 PM

            Shad my man!!! lol high five!!!

            Jan 29, 2015 29:27 PM

            High five!!

    Jan 29, 2015 29:25 AM

    I wanted to comment; but I’m at a cyclic low.

      Jan 29, 2015 29:38 AM

      Boom Boom!

      Jan 29, 2015 29:17 PM

      Best comment for January 2015

    Jan 29, 2015 29:29 AM

    Buying back into XOP in the 43 to 44 area having sold in the 47 area. Buying some gdx as it is getting close to my 1254 target.

      Jan 29, 2015 29:16 AM

      Sold my XOP on the good bounce over 44.

    Jan 29, 2015 29:34 AM

    The Canadian dollar is falling like The Russian Ruble, and so is The Aussie dollar, deflation has arrived.

      Jan 29, 2015 29:40 AM

      Nice article in today’s Sydney Morning Herald about the ludicrously priced house prices in Oz.

      http://www.smh.com.au/money/borrowing/brace-for-a-house-price-crash-and-you-wont-get-caught-out-20150129-131dji.html

      Jan 29, 2015 29:42 AM

      It was a mistake to lower interest rates by a quarter percent as it has crushed our dollar. A quarter percent can have no significant impact on the economy but it is going to make everything more expensive to buy in US dollars.

        Jan 29, 2015 29:45 AM

        It is going lower too, IMHO.

        Jan 29, 2015 29:47 AM

        It is exactly what Ottawa wants. It care more about input price of natural resource export. Government has to make sure the exporters survive. Otherwise, there will be serious unemployment problems.

          Jan 29, 2015 29:52 AM

          It makes my Audi and Porsches a much more expensive hobby.

            Jan 29, 2015 29:39 AM

            Euro has been helping you. You won’t afford a Ford one day.

            Jan 29, 2015 29:45 AM

            I might be able to get a better selling price on a 911 I am thinking of selling.

    Jan 29, 2015 29:50 AM

    BEFORE THE INITIAL JOBLESS CLAIMS came out this morning gold was down $20.00 ON NO NEWS……..There was NO REASON what so ever for the price to be down except for……………” THE CARTEL “……….AT IT AGAIN, FOR NO REASON……..yes there is volatility in gold, but not this much ON NO REAL NEWS…….even their new housing numbers came in down big this morning and that did nothing for GOLD……..FORGET ABOUT USING CHARTS AND GRAPHS, they are meaningless when dealing with THESE GUYS……………….THIS IS NOW A COMPLETELY OUT OF CONTROL CRIMINAL OPERATION…………..and the THREE STOOGES over there working the NUMBERS are the biggest LOOSERS ON EARTH !!!!!! NO MATTER WHAT THEY DO TO RIG IT, THIS STILL WILL NOT KEEP AMERICA FROM COLLAPSING………….now I hope THEY READ THAT !!!!!

      Jan 29, 2015 29:56 AM

      The reason gold is down is because traders became too bullish.

      Remember all those comments last week about how we were missing the boat and gold was going to the moon? Those comments have to get squashed and the late comers have to get knocked out of their positions. Once that happens then gold can rebound and make a try for 1347.

      And if it does get there then we will hear this same talk all over again and it will signal a much more serious decline down into a larger degree intermediate cycle low.

      That’s where traders need to buy, not when gold bugs are screaming nonsense about “to the moon”….

        Jan 29, 2015 29:06 AM

        Bingo Gary, you absolutely nailed it again.

        V

          Jan 29, 2015 29:36 AM

          Not sure what you mean by nailed as Gary missed a very big move up from November low. This is the actual truth and not knocking Gary down as I respect his calls from time to time. Johnny late comers are not me or Matt etc.. We moved in at much lower prices.

          Just saying G

          G

            Jan 29, 2015 29:56 AM

            Correct Glen. I also don’t recall anyone saying “to the moon” either. Still, I am obscenely bullish (as I think Peter put it) bigger picture.
            One thing is for sure, it is never a bad thing to knock out late comers. I sold the last of my GDXJ puts today for 143% and 167% gains, respectively. The rest I sold too early along with DUST yesterday! Have been buying very small juniors today.

            Jan 29, 2015 29:09 AM

            Good for you Matt..

            Do you have a downside target for hui if this level breaks?
            Also do you feel the big move down has been accomplished in gold/miners? What are your current views?

            Thanks

            Jan 29, 2015 29:18 AM

            Glen,
            I could care less about missing a move. I’ve missed hundreds of them of them over the years. I just want to wait until I have a strong setup. Trying to trade a whipsawing bear market is not my idea of good odds. Some people may do OK. Most will lose all of their gains during the downward phase of the intermediate cycle. I suspect many have already lost a huge chunk of their gains just over the last two days.

            Once I have an indication that the bear is over then and only then I can enter with the confidence that the larger trend is in my favor and not have to worry about trading around these volatile swings.

            Jan 29, 2015 29:30 AM

            Disciplined approaches pay off better over the long haul. No question about it. So I am with you Gary. A new trade comes along every damned day anyway. So what if we miss some. We ALL miss some! The hotheads who try to time each bottom and top can make great gains when they are right but they also turn in some horrid losses when its a miss. So I don’t listen to the bragging over their windfalls because the statistics on this topic are damning. Even the best traders have proven they can be wiped with the wrong mistake. Can’t help but notice Peter is not showing his face today after weeks of badgering everyone about not jumping all-in with both feet. Anyone who wants to survive at this really needs to be able to control their emotions.

            ditto………….No one SAID TO THE MOON…..

            ditto…. was to be placed under glen and Matthews………….

            MY comment on to thE MOON………ONLY PERTAINS TO LAST WEEK……

            Jan 29, 2015 29:52 AM

            Gary,

            I understand and im not saying it was a bad thing. You my friend have been doing this a long time.

            Jan 29, 2015 29:53 AM

            Bird,

            And your not emotional? ๐Ÿ™‚

          Jan 29, 2015 29:58 AM

          Gary i meant a good job a long time..

            Jan 29, 2015 29:17 PM

            Glen
            Don’t you remember Gary was very bullish gold at the Nov lows and after the Swiss Referendum he fell off the wagon. I think Big Al and Cory beat him up or(something) and Gary then started talking 1050 gold.
            Don’t understand, the gold chart was very clear and you could ride the trend with your eyes closed. You need more than cycles to find your way around a chart. That’s my opinion.
            Gary, don’t get excited this will not be a big pullback, just keep your seatbelt on ๐Ÿ™‚

            Peter

    Jan 29, 2015 29:54 AM

    I’m back. My work at “Keep Fairfax Weird” has been keeping me busy. This July, we’ll be asking residents to step out on their driveways, get some fresh air, and pretend to shovel snow. The great thing about pretending to shovel snow in July is that no one will come by and help in the winter (a cyclic low); whereas if you go out and pretend to shovel snow in July, at the height of tourist season here. All the tourists will ask what you’re doing. And ask if they can help. Or if they can pretend to help. July is a cyclic high for pretend shoveling.

      Jan 29, 2015 29:01 AM

      This sounds like when a man is pushing a car and obviously needs help to push it – no one will come and give a hand.

      But if a man opens the bonnet of a car and stares at the engine you can guarantee, within a few minutes, that a crowd will have gathered around to look at the engine also.

      Try it and see what happens.

        Jan 29, 2015 29:58 PM

        Funny Bob!!

    Jan 29, 2015 29:00 AM

    1280……1270……1260…….Thank you Mr Market.

      Jan 29, 2015 29:21 AM

      1250?

        Jan 29, 2015 29:47 AM

        I believe we are still waiting for the 100 dollar drop he mentioned. Let’s hope he doesn’t change his underwear again like his silver low call ๐Ÿ™‚

        Jan 29, 2015 29:59 AM

        Cross your fingers. I am looking for declines all the way back to 1200 actually. But then again I want a lot of things. My oil triple bottom has been violated so no roses coming up over there yet. Win some lose some I suppose.

          bb
          Jan 29, 2015 29:04 AM

          Hey Bird, what happened to 968?

          I for a long time was feeling we could drop to around that, still possible I guess.

          There have been some articles recently of slowing Indian and Chineese buying.

            He swore off of 968

            Jan 29, 2015 29:47 AM

            Yes, I swore off 968. Who knows though, maybe it was premature but it was starting to look like a long shot even though I still think the retracement of the rise has not completed. In light of the 50% drop in crude prices though maybe it should be reinstated.

            Bird…….you have been reading gary to long…….maybe, or maybe not,,,she love me, she loves me not………………………………….lol

            Jan 29, 2015 29:30 PM

            Gary has become a lot more professional over the past two years. He learned the hard way. I can’t say we gave him a lot of breaks early on. Put him through the meat grinder actually. But lets give him credit for refining his method and being a lot more careful with his use of the language.

    Jan 29, 2015 29:03 AM

    Gary a couple of days ago, I believe on Tuesday you said it was okay to take small position with the miners. Maybe I’m wrong.

      Jan 29, 2015 29:15 AM

      Yes emphasis on the word small because I knew there was a possibility that gold was going to drop into a DCL before heading towards 1340. If one has a small position they can weather the draw down. If you are leveraged or heavy you get knocked out for a loss.

      Jan 29, 2015 29:16 AM

      Yes, take a position near a top when it could have been done near 1200. It is time to start taking a position now as gold just might bounce off the 200 day at 1254 leaving you behind.

        Jan 29, 2015 29:05 AM

        Might not either. My bet is there is disappointment coming on that score. Just saying the obvious since we almost touched 1250 today already. Next stop 1240.

    Jan 29, 2015 29:04 AM

    Gary,

    This is classic Gary! What you have said today is well said.
    All i ask is stop with the moon type of comment. No one is here has said to the moon. At least no one with a level head.

    I agree with jumping back in to early. Like i was telling Matt the other day, to many gaps below which I personally don’t like. I much rather have them filled now then after but who knows. Caution is good advice gary and I appreciate the value you bring.

    I personally like what you do and don’t have a problem recommending you.
    I was meaning to ask you the other day what is the longest ICL you have ever witnessed in your professional carrier? 12 weeks? from low to low. 16 weeks? 18 weeks?

    Always good to have an idea. And how long are typical daily cycle tops and low. from top to low?

    Thanks and keep up great work..

    Long term=all in (add when I can)
    short term=Stops got triggered (escaped with 25% gains. Not to shabby)

    Good luck to all.. Be careful and safe. As you all know I hate stops but use them in extreme volatility. Im using stops with my trading account currently.

      Jan 29, 2015 29:15 AM

      The day and the day before the contract exiry day, there tends to be a low. It usually fall with the last two days of the month. I think it is to discourage delivery notice.

      Jan 29, 2015 29:18 AM

      Gold has had a few 30 week cycles. It’s hard to depend to heavily on anything in this market as the big players can push and pull it where they want it to go. Now with the benefit of hindsight the pop a couple of days ago was clearly a manufactured trap to get longs into the market and then fleece them.

      That’s the big problem with the metals. It’s next to impossible to tell when a move is real and when it is manipulation to set traders up to be fleeced.

        Jan 29, 2015 29:37 AM

        Gary, as long as gold does not goes back to $1200, Peter will keep saying it. For me as Canadian, I am rewarded by staying in gold and silver even I sold a small position last week.

        Hope one day you will recommend to buy. You have been on sideline for a long time. And I remember you said you are totally out of gold. I checked the price, it was 1150ish. Please make sure you only mean US investors not UK, Canada and Australia.

        Jan 29, 2015 29:28 AM

        You …Muppets beware….Mr. Bo ..has gold going to $20,000 in 4 weeks. J/K

        All predicated on a thermo nuclear war.. that is……EMINENT !!!!!!!!! I repeat…eminent. ..

        There will be……THERMO NUCLEAR WAR !!!!!!!!!!!!!!! $20,000 gold is a done deal.

        In 4 weeks from now……R.I.P. Hallelujah. …..its. SHAKE AND BAKE !!!!

        If you can get up on your hinies 4 weeks from now don’t look in the mirror.

        Because you will be looking at the….MELTING MAN. (from thermo nuclear fall out)

        (comments will not rest below this post and my troll spray is very powerful) now run along.

          Jan 29, 2015 29:50 AM

          Imminent HH………..I love Shake and Bake by the way. Glad you mentioned it. Have not had it in years. I have a hankering to go out and get a bag but you can’t find any here and they never heard of it. Hmmm….maybe I can make my own mix.

            Jan 29, 2015 29:21 PM

            Afraid so Bird. You know it and I know it.

            Hey …what happened to …CURVE POP !!!!! ????? Did you pull the trademark on it ?

            The rocket is pointed down…Even the launching pad is gone.

            Since I’ve been gone researching all kinds of radical stuff.

            Planet X Nibiru is real. Huge cover up by NASA.

            GET READY BIRD MAYBE FOR SOME REAL FIREWORKS !!!!

            Sit back and relax. Enjoy the show with some good munchies. Double chocolate muffins ?

            Cuban cigars are the new fad here. Along with fast cars and lollie pop gurlz.

            HA HA problem is they don’t see planet X comin to poop on the party.

            Nor do they care about Armageddon. We have a hard burn comin Bird.

            The globalist will not stop until the world is covered in ashes and smoke.

            Its all going down hard just as the bible says. JJ was inspired by some
            the Scriptures you threw out there. Maybe he got saved. God will credit
            your account for that. In my case still working off all my demerits. : (

          Jan 29, 2015 29:54 AM

          You have to use a very long ruler to forecast that like a pro on KWN.

          Jan 29, 2015 29:14 PM

          Thermo nuclear war is no good – your gold will melt into a puddle.

      Jan 29, 2015 29:03 AM

      Most of my specs don’t move with GDXJ so one can’t assume that too early for the sector in general applies to individual stocks. Take GMX, I was a seller this morning after it became overbought. It jumped 59% in 7 sessions.
      http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=GMX.TO&p=D&yr=1&mn=0&dy=0&id=p29099339417

      Jan 29, 2015 29:30 PM

      Glen I don’t like the word “caution” that Gary uses. It denotes carelessness. When trading one should approach ones position with well thought out stops in play EVERY DAY………… period.
      Listening to Gary talk and the words he uses I get the feeling he doesn’t use stops or if he does he gets stopped out alot. Just my impression from his choice of words from the audios.
      Again his cycles word has merit, but it is such as small part of trading.
      Tading is discipline, discipline, discipline and more discipline…..

      Peter

    Jan 29, 2015 29:46 AM

    Gold looks like is heading up from 1254 as it crossed the 50 minute average up and the general market will turn down.

      Jan 29, 2015 29:49 AM

      Paul, if my observation on contract roll over trick is real, we should see better price tomorrow afternoon.

    Jan 29, 2015 29:57 AM

    DOW up slightly currently but S&P Down and below 2000. What’s that all about?

      Jan 29, 2015 29:55 PM

      Bob,

      Did you add shares today or are you waiting for lower prices?

      You seemed upset the other day you did not catch the november bottom.

      That’s why i ask.

    bb
    Jan 29, 2015 29:06 AM

    Seems to me, that shares I watch are dropping more slowly with this drop.
    Maybe Im imagining things tho.

    Jan 29, 2015 29:22 AM

    Like I said be patient. Silver is telling you something big is happening. This isn’t the end, it’s only the beginning. Don’t try to pick a bottom until next week and maybe late next week.

      Jan 29, 2015 29:27 AM

      Gary, you are doing a good job helping cartel to keep us on sideline.

        bb
        Jan 29, 2015 29:11 PM

        Gary helping the cartel?
        Cant blame a guy for making a living.

          I have to agree with LAWRENCE

            Gary ………HAVE YOU LISTENED TO FITTS……..or is everyone here giving you fits..

            Jan 29, 2015 29:39 PM

            I did. I think she is right

            Lawrence I agree………

            Jan 29, 2015 29:28 PM

            Actually all the guys who jump over the fence are saying same thing. Just different degree. I guess they all have the chance to see it and hate it. They include PCR, Stockman, Fitts, Mongrim, Malgrin, Rickards, etc. They are either telling the truth or they copied each other.

            Jan 29, 2015 29:45 PM

            A lot of truth in that comment, Lawrence. The doom crowd are all in harmony these days singing from the same song book. It just goes to prove that even contrarians run in herds and behave like sheep. I also noticed that many are suddenly repeating the same idea. So there is a major influence out there who has captivated the popular thought of the alternative crowd. I think I know the source but won’t say the name. But basically, there are just a small handful of people with genuine credibility and insights that support a host of copycats.

          I THINK THEY ARE TELLING THE TRUTH…………jmho…………….j

      LPG
      Jan 29, 2015 29:57 AM

      According to COT data I came across yesterday (in Ed Steer’s Gold and Silver Daily), it seems the big boys had a MORE concentrated short position silver (as of the last COT report) than in April 2011, just before silver got smashed.

      Personally, when I come across this type of data, I always think ONE and ONE thing only: Tic-Tac, Tic-Tac.

      GL to all investing/trading.

      LPG

        Jan 29, 2015 29:47 PM

        LPG,

        What is your views on this silver margins hike?

        Is gold next?

        All I can think is they are desperate to cover there positions. They need lower prices. A whopping 11%

        glen

          LPG
          Jan 30, 2015 30:23 AM

          Hello Glenfidish,

          I just read about the silver margin hikes here on kereport.
          My view is that this is a joke. The “syndicate” needs to find ways to make sure it doesn’t lose money, so raising margins help when it is (heavily) short.

          As for gold, stating the obvious, I’ll just say that a margin hike will likely occur at some point – but the most important question is “when”, and it is one on which I have no insights or views.

          Best to you, and GL to all investing/trading.

          LPG

            Jan 30, 2015 30:13 AM

            LPG,

            Thanks for your insight ๐Ÿ™‚

      Jan 29, 2015 29:50 PM

      Gary, CME is getting positioned.

      CME Hikes Silver Margins By 11%
      http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-01-29/cme-hikes-silver-margins-11

        Jan 29, 2015 29:33 PM

        Actually this is one of the strategies by CME and JPM to fleece the longs:

        Let price run
        Add short
        Add Hugh shorts to push down price
        Raise margin
        Cover short

        Then the money changes hand.

        They pulled a giant one at end of April 2011. They raised margin 5 times in a week. When you see their hands, it is too later. In a gambling game, when you opponent makes and changes the rule, you stand no chance

          Jan 29, 2015 29:40 PM

          Lawrence you have their number. I ran into an article by the wealth watchman titled…I smell a trap and was unable to post the link here.

    Jan 29, 2015 29:23 AM

    Everyone suddenly has become a WTI EXPERT and is saying 35-40 lol.

    Where the heck was everyone when this glen over a year ago was yelling 35-40 wti. It’s on record here. Many in here where saying your out of your mind. Geeze now everyone is predicting it, well ya its right there.

    WTI OIL= 35-40 wti
    CRB=210 at the minimum

    Look for a weekly close in the 30’s and move in on oil stocks. Glen is the king of wti in here and ya’ll have known that for over 1 year plus.

    It can happen this week or next.

      Jan 29, 2015 29:26 AM

      Thanks. I have a lot of orders on oil companies and ETFs I like. I have been waiting since 2010. It has been too long to too painful.

        Jan 29, 2015 29:02 PM

        Lawrence I believe your king when it comes to them oil stocks ๐Ÿ™‚

          Jan 29, 2015 29:53 PM

          Glen your call was at right time. Thanks

      Jan 29, 2015 29:39 AM

      Everyone’s ability to extrapolate linearly is amazing isn’t it?! ๐Ÿ˜‰

        Jan 29, 2015 29:48 AM

        Hi analysts are no better. They are always wrong on the turn. I would not blame them since God cuts of the graphs from tomorrow all the way to infinity. Tough.

        LPG
        Jan 29, 2015 29:57 AM

        +1 Matthew.

    Jan 29, 2015 29:46 AM

    Supports for gold are pretty clear. It would be great/bullish if gold/silver can manage to consolidate above 1255, but it can fall quite a bit more without causing me to turn bearish about the intermediate term. My guess is that we’ll get a test of the 1240.
    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$GOLD&p=D&yr=1&mn=0&dy=0&id=p47179521550&a=387228154

      Jan 29, 2015 29:11 PM

      Matt 1220 my hommie. Why you ask cause cartel wants it and pull backs are deeper then most expect ALWAYS!!!! Gary is right here!

        Jan 29, 2015 29:12 PM

        Charts if fantastic and thank you my hommie

          Jan 29, 2015 29:15 PM

          …..also RSI on 5 day is not even oversold yet let alone on 14 day which is standard.

            Jan 29, 2015 29:27 PM

            IF this is a new bull, a GDXJ RSI 14 reading of 40 or 50 could be all you get. It’s 47.75 now. Despite today’s plunge, gold is a bullish 53.

      Jan 29, 2015 29:52 PM

      Matt,

      We can’t rule out 1200/1220 range..For this rise to be valid, im thinking a retest of that floor level around 1200 would be nice to see. 1180 triple bottom broke only for it to break back through it again and find a floor in the 1200/1218 region. Retesting it is crucial imo if we were to go higher. We need more fuel to come down and margins hike comes in at the precise moment to cool off indicators and maybe close some final gaps?

    Jan 29, 2015 29:09 AM

    On November 30, 2014 at 12:08 pm,
    Chartster says:
    I think itโ€™s a very short lived but violent plunge.
    Then,, to da moonโ€ฆ. (As they say)

    On November 29, 2014 at 5:44 am,
    glenfidish says:
    Gary the equities market has been so quiet is worries me. Itโ€™s like everyone is on board and content and accepted that itโ€™s to the moon. Me guts tells me there is going to be some type of big correction soon. Like pulling a rug when your not looking. Itโ€™s just ti perfect and to good to be true.

    On November 29, 2014 at 5:53 am,
    glenfidish says:
    Skeeta,
    I totally agree with you. Although we all must make are own decisions, many of these proclaimed guruโ€™s donโ€™t help the cause when all the spew is buy buy buy to da moon.. I feel for many investors who fall for this.

    On November 26, 2014 at 2:33 pm,
    Chartster says:
    The to the moon gold bugs will be right once we get past this final wash.
    I wish it would get on with it already!

    On October 31, 2014 at 1:29 am,
    Skeeta says:
    I agree Lawrence,
    Physical holdings will do very well in the longer term if your patient.
    Gold stocks will be interesting to watch in the next 12 months.
    Many juniors will disappear / merge / etc.
    Gold Bulls will scream manipulation & to da moon all the way down thoughโ€ฆpathetic.
    Just you watch.

    On October 27, 2014 at 5:36 pm,
    biggus. says:
    I feel that this week will be the turning point for gold. After the fed announcement on Thursday i believe gold will be headed towards 1100.Then we should see a huge rally in the first quarter 2015 and then drop in the second quarter. The low between 8/2015 and 1/2016 should be the final low before blast off and to da moon as my friend HH would quote. MA hints at this scenario in his PM report.

    On October 18, 2014 at 11:08 pm,
    Skeeta says:
    Thanks again Al & Cory + guests for the weekend show.
    I enjoyed listening to it whilst planting some Vegetables outside today.
    Totally disagree with Bo Polny thoughโ€ฆ.heโ€™s off his rocker with his predictionsโ€ฆ.heโ€™s just another space cadet on the to da moon bandwagon.

    ~~~~~~~//~~~~~~~

    Whether pro or con, there’s been lots of “moon” talk on this site.
    I could add many more, but there’s a search function on this blog, free for anyone to use.

      Jan 29, 2015 29:14 AM

      They all seems to be when gold was at its low almost $100 lower than now. Where is the bullishness now?

      Jan 29, 2015 29:37 AM

      – Chartster’s don’t count because his “to da moon” was contingent on a fall to sub $600 gold or something like that.

      Actually, I don’t need to address them one by one because NONE of them count in the context of today’s use. Not one is calling for “to da moon” imminently and some are just using the phrase the way some of us have taken issue with today —straw man style or to characterize someone who has nothing to do with this site (Polny; KWN).

      Jan 29, 2015 29:11 PM

      Irwin,

      In both my post I have not said or talked about anything going to the moon personally. Your taking my post out of context when I was implying to Gary that in this forum i have yet to see anyone with a “level” head talk about to the moon etc.

        Jan 29, 2015 29:19 PM

        Matt,

        What would be the opposite of to da moon?

        How about guys who keep saying it’s going to 968 or sub 800 etc etc ..

        I never here gary say anything on the mic about “to da basement”

        What the heck!

          it is easier to be negative than positive…………….

            Jan 29, 2015 29:54 PM

            Jerry, being bearish gold is NOT negative. Don’t you know yet you can make money both directions?

            THERE is nothing about being bearish on gold when one is wrong….and professes to know what a pretend chart is looking like………………mark hit I on the head…..MONTHLY OPTION EXPIRING AND THE BROKERS BANKERS MAKING THE COMMISSION…..today GOLD IS GOING UP AND WILL GO UP , WHILE SUCKING IN SOME MORE BETTING MONEY……………

            Yes you are correct ,,,,you can make money both ways………You just have to figure out who is betting and who is not betting the direction…..BUT, gold is in a BULL market, and this mini bear inside of a Bull Cycle is totally confusing to those who would like to trust those who profess to know what they are saying……..jmho.

            BTW…..Hope your days is going great……..appreciate the comments….I really do…best j.

          Jan 29, 2015 29:32 PM

          Hmmm… the yellers to hellers?

          GH
          Jan 29, 2015 29:56 PM

          that woiuld be ‘The Bloodbath Phase’ !!! lol

        Jan 29, 2015 29:50 PM

        I don’t know about to da moon….But I do know that I am taking the scrap gold that I bought yesterday….to my hidey hole , tomorrow……so there…

    Jan 29, 2015 29:35 PM

    Are you guys seeing anything in individual mining stocks that might give an idea of where this is going? Or are you mainly using GDXJ as the benchmark?

    Jan 29, 2015 29:05 PM

    I look at GDX and it has bounced back quite a bit to around 21.68 in the after-market. 1254 area held for 4 hours and so the fall might be over.

      Jan 29, 2015 29:51 PM

      There was some definite strength at the 1254 level, when it crossed the 50 minute average as you pointed out earlier; however, Gold did dip down to 1252.80 twice this afternoon and then stabilized in the 1254-1258 range the rest of the day.

      I still believe we’ll be going lower to test the 1240’s before this short term correction is over, and that would be the more concentrated area of congestion and major support. After Gary’s comments today I’ll be giving it until next Friday, but personally believe we’ll see the low by the beginning of next week. It is impossible to call a bottom as everyone knows, and there will need to be strong rally out of the 1240s or if today was the bottom to confirm we are back in the remaining part of the uptrend. When will it happen – nobody knows for sure….

        Jan 29, 2015 29:42 PM

        Guys watch the interday charts and let the resistance levels, the volume, momentum, and the moving averges and then refer back to the daily chart and daily volume. Don’t jump the gun, wait for the buy signal.

        Peter

    Jan 29, 2015 29:29 PM

    Friday is last trading day of the month and week. Friday will be red as cartel wants to print closing month and week and daily charts in red .
    In fact i would not be surprised if Friday is biggest down day.
    1220 will happen tomorrow so will lower gdx and gdxj targets. Good luck.

    1220 probably will be hit on gold.

      Jan 29, 2015 29:39 PM

      Stewie,

      You a very confident lad lol.. For my sake I hope you are correct. Id like to buy some more at lower prices. By the way how did you see the close on miners candlestick wise? This question is for you,matt and anyone else who dare step up to da plate ๐Ÿ™‚

        Jan 29, 2015 29:50 PM

        Glen
        GDX the hourly chart watch the resistance levels at 22.34 and 21.72 and a hourly close above the 21 moving average and taking out either one of those resistance levels at the same time as the 21 moving average.
        Hope this helps.

        Peter

          Jan 29, 2015 29:40 PM

          Peter,

          Thanks for your tips. Always welcomed. I use GDX as a barometer but I don not trade it. I should eventually.

      Jan 29, 2015 29:01 PM

      Stewie, the last day does not need to be the worse unless it is end of year, half year or quarter. What they want to do is to push people to the next delievery month so I noticed that a lot of time the price is up in the afternoon of the last day. I guess they want to cover before the rest.

    Jan 29, 2015 29:30 PM

    Just saw this. CME hikes silver margin by 11% while the price is down.

    http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-01-29/cme-hikes-silver-margins-11

      Jan 29, 2015 29:37 PM

      Very good timing. The longs who get caught have to liquidate. Short seems got all the luck for last so many years. Silver started down after Asia closed and just before New York open. So many coincidence. I hope someone who is good at math can clculate the odds. It must be smaller than black swan shows up. I just don’t want to waste my time.

        Jan 29, 2015 29:56 PM

        Lawrence its perfect timing as you say imo. Gives the shorts time to cover and recent longs get fleeced. Also allows for indicators as Doc has mentioned to cool off a bit so we can fuel up before the possibly heading higher.

        Just my two cents..

        Im just wondering when they hit gold with the margins?

    Jan 29, 2015 29:18 PM

    A collapse in the price of silver, is due partly to the efforts of several governments to put themselves on a gold basis, but also something bad is happening in China. What else could explain this?

      Jan 29, 2015 29:22 PM

      Today or since 2011. Silver is still a lot high than early 2000s.

        Jan 29, 2015 29:22 PM

        A lot Higher.

      Jan 29, 2015 29:32 PM

      What is bad happening in China ?

        Jan 29, 2015 29:39 PM

        Their economy is contracting!

          Jan 29, 2015 29:41 PM

          Where did you hear this?

      Jan 29, 2015 29:36 PM

      I think the big move down in Silver is just a technical retracement of such an explosive move up. Silver has a more intense beta than Gold and will outperform on the upside and down downside. So if Gold goes down hard, Silver usually goes down much harder.
      There have only been muted growth stories in the emerging markets and China as of late, Europe is a mess, Japan is a mess, Indonesia is a mess, Russia is a mess, and the Middle East is a mess. This is putting a lid on the industrial base metals so this hits Silver and PGMs harder than Gold.

        Jan 29, 2015 29:41 PM

        Base metal has over supply due to large profit margin. Gold does not have profit margin and silver has a negative profit margin.

          Jan 29, 2015 29:52 PM

          Agreed. Good points on the profit margins in the metals. I would make the case the that the majority of Silver miners also have base metal credits in Copper, Lead, and Zinc and so there are times where Silver carries the profit and time where the base metals carry more of a margin. This is a nice diversification for riding out different commodity cycles with the Silver miners.

            Jan 29, 2015 29:01 PM

            +1 Shad

            Jan 30, 2015 30:44 AM

            Thanks!

          Jan 29, 2015 29:01 PM

          +1 Lawrence

    Jan 29, 2015 29:44 PM

    In keeping with the schizophrenic behavior of this market, gold should probably rally tomorrow and stocks will take another hit ๐Ÿ˜‰

      Jan 29, 2015 29:00 PM

      Gary,

      Ya think Even with the bearish candles left today? I guess
      Keep in mind that loonie continued its fall and gold tagged along. So if overnight loonie moves into 78 or even 77, then i expect another fall tomorrow.

      Jan 29, 2015 29:12 PM

      Gold is touching 1261 now.

    Jan 29, 2015 29:04 PM

    Made 21% shorting gold today through JDST.

      Jan 29, 2015 29:52 PM

      bravo!!!!!!

    Jan 29, 2015 29:07 PM

    So both gold and silver down because someone knew that margins were going to be hiked?

    Those who just found out that margins have been hiked will be selling tomorrow and the big boys, re COTs, with all those short positions will clean up.

      Jan 29, 2015 29:02 PM

      Bob,

      Are you buying? I keep asking you but you don’t reply..You said you were depressed you missed november low. Well good prices here and next week says gary.

        Jan 29, 2015 29:22 PM

        I am not yet but I could be on Friday or sometime next week dependent upon what happens with the price. I think it could be going a bit lower – especially if they reduce margin on gold as they did with silver today.

        I also have my eye on a conventional stock so keeping my options open currently.

          Jan 29, 2015 29:43 PM

          Thanks Bob..

          Good luck

    Jan 29, 2015 29:30 PM

    I said last week that this week murk is coming as it’s options expiration and fed minutes. Everyone was like stewie it’s trolling again hahahahahah

    I nailed the bottom, then i nailed the top and nailed the murk.
    Let’s see if i can nail the bottom in gold now. lol.
    Here
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0hiUuL5uTKc

      Jan 29, 2015 29:32 PM

      I should have had some balls and buy JDST or DSLV…i’m not shorty. It’s hard.

        Jan 29, 2015 29:25 PM

        I feel the same stewie but, truth be told, I don’t really understand how the short etfs work.

        I know that they do some re-jigging each day but I have never found a clear explanation of how they work. I’ve been told that they are etfs to be literally in and out of within one trading session and never in overnight – but I have no idea how much truth there is in that.

          Jan 29, 2015 29:47 PM

          There is a daily fee for maintenance which is like 0.002%or something like that. Who gives a sh1t if you make 20% daily. If you get the trend right you may get taxed 3-5% for a year but if you make 2000% do you care? NO!. It’s safe then futures and options as you can not get margin call on it. You can have 95% lose on the trade but you can hold it and add to position for years regardless how much it goes down. That you can not do with futures and options. Only way you can get rich is 3x, futures and options. I don’t like the later. Rest is just funny business. my 2 cents.

            Jan 29, 2015 29:50 PM

            …..and it’s not 3x but more like 10-20x if you keep it for year or more providing you get trend right. Compounding of percentages just like compounded interest.

          Jan 29, 2015 29:03 PM

          Yes the reverse ETFS are simple, they go up with the asset or security they are correlated with goes down. So for example JNUG is the 3X ETF for GDXJ, and JDST is the Reverse 3X ETF for GDXJ. So the miners are already a multiplier effect on the underlying commodity on many days, and the Junior Miners are even more leveraged. GDXJ is a collection of Junior Miners to it can have a lot of volatility, and the 3X ETFS magnify that volatility triple fold. It is very common for GDXJ to move 4-7% in a day and those ETFs to move 12-21% in a day. Fun if you’re on the right side of the movement, and terrible losses if you are on the wrong side.

          However, you do get the kind of leverage you experience in options, without having to worry about a ticking clock and expiration. You can hold them as long as you want and average into positions in a 3 tier manner, but there are small administrative fees for holding it that minimally erode the value. Not for the faint of heart…..

          Another good reverse EFT is TZA which is a Reverse 3X of the Russell 2000 index. A little less choppy than the mining stocks since it is tracking an larger index, but still more volatile than the average ETF due to the multiplier in movement.

          LPG
          Jan 30, 2015 30:38 AM

          Hello Bob UK,

          Hope all’s well.

          I don’t know about ALL ETFs available, and MAYBE there are some for which it is literally good to be out of intraday. But I don’t know.

          Being the ignorant that I am, I’ll however just have a few words below about 2 of the ETFs that I personally trade (note: I wrote TRADE, not INVEST in): JNUG and JDST.

          For myself, these 2 vehicles are “fine” to buy and sell keeping in mind a few important considerations:

          1) these 2 ETFs are VOLATILE given they are 3 times levered

          2) I personally believe they are ok for holding 2-3 days (some would argue for longer) ASSUMING one catches the trend rightly.
          However, I personally don’t hold them overnight. I prefer to make 1 trade per day for 3 days than 1 trade lasting 3 days when it comes to them. The reason is the point (1) above. At the end of each day, I have no overnight risk, so I can sleep fine.
          I agree that if there is a trend for 3 days, by being out of a position at the end of each day I might get in the next days at different levels and “miss” performance compared to holding them overnight, but to me, sleeping well is more important.

          Hope this “helps”.

          Best to you, and GL to all investing/trading.

          LPG

            Jan 30, 2015 30:47 AM

            Thanks all for taking the time to write about the inverse etfs – pretty much what I expected of them.

            If I ever bought into them I would only ever do what LPG does – in and out within a day so that I too could sleep overnight.

            I appreciate you all taking the time to write what you did. Very supportive people on here which makes it such a good site ๐Ÿ™‚

            Jan 30, 2015 30:18 AM

            +1 LPG

            Jan 30, 2015 30:07 AM

            Bob, there is a MAJOR disincentive when holding leveraged ETF’s over any length of time that you must be aware of. It is a little thing called “decay” that you need to be aware of. You ought to read up on it before using them so you can stay out of hot water but these are certainly not for “buy and hold”. As LPG wisely mentioned it is best to use them only for very short periods of time. Daily is fine for the pros but in the real world you might be in and out in a week because of timing. That’s more than enough. DO NOT listen to anyone suggesting you hold for up to a year though….good grief!

            Try this article for a little background….there are endless words written on the subject of decay in leveraged ETF’s though and it is pretty essential information.
            http://igtcapital.com/leveraged-etf-decay-shorting-tmf-nugt/

    Jan 29, 2015 29:22 PM

    Extraordinary comparison of the mid-1970s gold price versus today

    http://www.marketanthropology.com/2015/01/going-up.html

    Looks like a few guys have figured out this market……..kudos……..best and happy trading……………………..j