Whatever happens on one day you can bet the opposite will happen the next!
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I happen to notice when going into the historical CME margins increase back to 2009, that most often then none the biggest drop in gold/silver comes in one to two days before the announce. Typically the following day after release there seems to be a jolt higher followed by another drop not as significant as the first big one and then a bottom. With that said Gary maybe on to something here with next week coming down a little lower before we resume.
Thoughts?
Also lets not rule out a gold margins increase next week or after close today.
TRADERS ARE WATCHING CLOSELY THE BALTIC DRY INDEX WHICH IS NOW AT A RECORD 632 POINTS, if this index shows a 5 HANDEL by the close tonight or even a 5 HANDEL next week, it’s DOOMS DAY AHEAD FOLKS………..you know that we are in TRUOBLE !!!!
Transitory. Nothing to worry about. Buy the dip. Yellen is loading up QE. Listen, none of this matters. The only time these numbers will matter is after the collapse when people will begin to pour through the data and try to find when things went south. Until then, the market will continue to go up with some minimal corrections along the way.
Mark,
With that being said how do the metals/miners preform? Down initially or up in your views. I think some of us would like you to expand thoughts.
Always nice to have different views.
Cheers
If you want to see how the miners will perform, simply go back to 2008 and 2009 and then look at 2010.
Just my opinion.
I think that miners are going to do well this year despite what they have done for the past three years, I like GOLDCORP and NEWMONT mining both of them are up nicely today. I only wonder about the years to come, with miners not having extra capital for CAP-EX and capital for new exploring projects……………………there may be MAJOR shortages 3-5 years out.
Short Barrick and long GoldCorp.
Lawrence…who ever you are…don’t you ever stick that buddah
cult bull crap in my face again or I will run you off the board.
You hear me…you are on your way to hell with it.
I DON’T WANT TO HEAR IT…not placed under my post
and in my face. Not going to keep you company in hell
either you varmint. Thats what you are bringing that
buddah cult garbage up. ITS NOT OK… you varmint.
The stock cycle usually lasts about 35-40 days trough to trough. Today is day 30.
Thanks Bud!
cheers
Thanks Mark,
I personally believe very strongly that we are, in fact, in big trouble now. Most people will not accept that.
…….well they better AL, because IT’S COMING!
I know a lot of people that do not accept it either…they went to protest at Wall Street…where are they now?….we need stamina….lots of it.
mark if greece exits the eurozone the consequences will not be pleasant for the stock markets in general.The domino effect will send shock waves all over the world.Many french and german banks like bnp paribas and deutch bank are up their ears in greek,italian and spanish bonds and if a write off is taken on these countries debt they will go belly up.Not to mention the derivatives that they have associated to this debt.The situation is very critical atm for europe.U.s. unemployment is gonna sky rocket again due to redundancies in the oil sector and manufacturing sector and many are gonna default on their mortgages,student loans and considering the fractional reserve practices that the bank operates on the chances are that banks are not gonna be bailed out this time but in.Cyprus depositors who had deposits that exceed the sum insured(100000 euros) have already experienced this tragic event.
GREECE WILL DEFAULT !!!! ALSO Greece will leave the EU and join the BRICS NATIONS, after that watch out for ITALY and SPAIN because they are going to say WHY SHOULD WE HAVE TO PAY OFF THIS STRANGLING DEBT and they will hedge first and then follow Greece……………I think the EU is basically on LIFE SUPPORT.
the new name will be BRIG AND STRATTON……..
THE BALTIC DRY INDEX INDICATES THAT SUPPLY AND DEMAND IS VERY LOW NOW WORLD WIDE……………with that being said………….it’s just a matter of time now (short time).
The BDI has never shown any predictive value in the past. Zero hedge jumped the gun a bit before actually testing to see if there was any real significance to the number.
Agree. It is over-rated as an indicator of economic health although you have to admit it’s pretty interesting to read about.
Bird,
If it was over-rated why have we not heard about it in here for a very long time? Mark is the first to bring it up here since I’ve been here. Maybe it slipped me..
Oh, I am referring back to when it first fell and all the water that went over the dam since then. It’s not a big topic on this site fortunately but on others its all the blather as if it really means something.
Roger Wiegand used to mention the BDI several years back on his interviews here on this site. I think the Index defiantly has value and it worth watching.
Just my two cents…..
Jody D
Yes, I recall Jody. Can I refer you to a chart that will put a little perspective on this subject though? It is the BDI Index over a 30 year span. One look at the shape of it will tell you it lost all its predictive capabilities for the economy during the years between 2003 and 2011.
At this time it is merely back inside its long term price range.
There is a fairly good explanation in the linked article of the main components of how the chart numbers are arrived at incidentally. A major factor, other than supply of ships, is fuel costs. The article notes:
“Bunker fuel accounts for about 40% of vessel operating costs with limited opportunities to mitigate them. Thus, a surge in oil prices is directly reflected in shipping rates. The opposite holds true if energy prices drop, the BDI can also drop accordingly”.
So please keep that in mind as you watch the BDI sinking. It is less meaningful as an economic indicator of trade activity than some might like us to believe. Like a lot of other parts of the economy that are being impacted due to energy prices, the BDI is no exception. Air fares are another. Notice how flight prices have also fallen with the cost of fuel? Anyway, read the short article and decide for yourself…
Unless you are one of the people who can strip out the noise in the index in order to arrive at good conclusions about the economy you are probably wasting your time using this particular graph for trading information.
Baltic Dry index Chart since 1985
http://people.hofstra.edu/geotrans/eng/ch7en/conc7en/bdi.html
Gold is strong while GDX has been performing poorly with gold above 1270. I bought back some xop today having sold too early yesterday.
LOOKS LIKE WE ARE GETTING A NICE POP IN GOLD………………..as it should !!!!
I happen to agree Mark, but maybe (notice I said maybe) for different reasons!
YES, I understand, those guys over at the comex are ROBBERS without the GUN, but for now I’m glad to see it come back some………………but let’s see what it does SUNDAY NIGHT !!!!
Mark in stewies word’s we might get a “Murking” lol.. That is his favorite word in his vocabulary hehehe. Just playing stewie.
Do not be too much enthusiastic about this pop mark.There is nothing yet that indicate a trend change.Pog is set for the final thrust imo towards the ubb at 1323 although I dont exclude that it can reach up to 1338.Take care buddy and all the best whatever your position.
OH TRUST ME……….I KNOW.
EGO is down 20% today as new Greek government opposes their mine there. Anyone buying?
Don’t touch it. That mine in Greece will be taken away from them.
That was my first thought also; but I don’t know the specifics of the mine and company. Government will take what makes money, for the good of themselves.
I know the situation in Greece better than anyone on this board. Syriza is about to tell all those who made deals with the previous government to get the hell out of the country. Trust me on this one
EGO may well lose its Greek mine, but that mine is not 20% of the company, and the stock is down 20% today.
I hear you. Just telling you to let the smoke clear before jumping in.
Thanks chris. that is the beauty of this website.
Thanks, Chris. After looking, Greece may have more than 25% of their reserves. But if the government takes the mine they may have to pay something for it. Even Hugo Chavez paid Exxon and Conoco something for the oil he seized. But I’ll stay away for now.
I agree with what they are doing because privitisation is a one time gain wheras holding them will render you much more overtime.The problem with socialist countries is that many of these assets being a freeport ,dockyard ,railway,power station,airline etc are not run efficiently and more often than not are subsidized by the government and overtime they become a huge burden on the country itself.That is why many countries opt to privatize.
Bonzo, another heads up. Greece has enough money to last until mid-March. Keep that in mind.
I personally would strear a wide berth away from Greece!
Personally, I would steer clear from Europe completely. The dam is about to burst, imho.
You can bet on that chris.eur/usd will drop to parity then to 0.85 and if things get really dire the ultimate target would be 0.65.The only option for the germans is to form a northern euro (Czech repulic,slovakia,germany,finland,austria,sweden,netherlands) and the rest will go back to their own currency.Imo that is the best solution.
Al you been drinking…???!
For those obsessed with the GDXJ Inverse H&S: Discussed by Morris Hubbard (He sells cement, too !)
http://www.superforcesignals.com/video/2015jan29gdxjinv/2015jan29gdxjinv.html
Is anyone jumping into JNUG yet (from the long-term perspective, not day trading)
Thanks, Brian
Morris says 40-something for GDXJ; the P&F chart says $47. Both sound good to me.
It needs to take back the 21 day EMA at 27.43 or it could be heading back down very soon.
The sentiment is still too bullish imho and gold has not retraced properly in imho.
Gold needs to get back to at least 1240 and ideally 1220. I don’t know if it will but i’m not gonna chace to get smashed week later. Hubbard btw is good but dude is always bullish just like KWN so take hubbard with grain of salt.
Hubbart has shared some of his buy and SELL signals for subscribers before and he seems good/professional to me. It’s easy to develop an image of someone that is not accurate if you know what their long term big picture bias is. Like me, for example. I am “obscenely” bullish long term but I sell short term strength constantly.
Do you disagree with the view that GDXJ is heading above $40?
Matt do doubt about it. GDXJ eventually will be at 150 and 300 but don’t you think we need to hit 23-24 first. I don’t know if it corrected properly yet but that’s subjective too.
No, despite the extended move and rolling oscillators, I do not think so. Instead, I think we might see some chopping in a range while the oscillators flatten out. Having said that, your scenario wouldn’t be too surprising, but a move relentlessly higher, sooner rather than later, would surprise me even less.
A Super Major Mega Monster Move is coming…. I think. 😉
Btw, I really don’t see the bullish sentiment that you’re talking about.
Stewie, if sentiment is bullish, my Silver Bullion Trust should have 10% premium instead of 10% discount. It is a very good sentiment indicator.
Sentiment was at 50, now at 43. Those usually are tops when you look at the historic past. I would think 20 would be good. I don’t know if we get it or not tho.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$BPGDM&p=D&yr=3&mn=0&dy=0&id=p68207401297
Wow, what a bargain, Lawrence. Is it still 10% right now? I think you’re talking about CEF?
Stewie, if this is a bull leg (finally), then 90+ can signal the top. November 2010 had a reading of 93.33…
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$BPGDM&p=W&yr=7&mn=0&dy=0&id=p28046751388&a=384167210&listNum=1
CEF NAV – 6.5%
http://www.centralfund.com/nav%20form.htm
Matthew，still close to it. Go to silverbulliontrust.com and see Net asset value. It is SBT.UN not CEF. CEF is traded as CEF.A in Toronto and silver bullion trust is Sbt.un. CEF gets 6-7% discount, also high by historic standard. SBT is NYSE symbol but small volume, Too hard to trade.
Thanks guys, still a very nice discount!
Just for your information, the premium of this fund was over 7% in April 2011. It was the time I trimmed it from 3900 shares to 1000. Should have sold all.
I own PSLV, which had a +20% premium at one time. The thought of a possible +$50 silver and a 25% premium makes my head spin
Gary
What do you mean “from trough to trough”
trading days.. trough to trough=low to low.
🙂
Gary, does the cycle include week ends or just trading days?
Trading days
I did say 1254 was an important number being the 200 day average and gold is now at 1277 and looks like it may have bottomed. The gold stocks don’t look strong however and that is worrying. I purchased GDX yesterday from 21.35 down to 21.15. You have to buy some at major support and then lower down.
Paul,
Unless miners catch big time in the next 3 hours, id assume miners are indicating lower prices. I have been known to be wrong but with this rise in gold thus far, miners have done very little.
Maybe market is waiting for 1276 to be broken to the upside.
Seems the miners I have are doing well, Agnico, First Majestic, Gold Corp, Silver Corp, Silver Wheaton, Endeavor Silver, …
Then your having a heck of a day…
There up minimal compared to price action of both gold/hui today. That is somewhat concerning bwdik 🙁
Nem is up 4% while gdx only 2%.
Nem looks like it should turn down and close the gap.
That will do well for many people’s, and my own, mutual funds in their RSPs. I don’t own any of those in my trading accounts.
Glen, the miners are under performing due to their own technical situation, and is not bearish in my opinion. They just need to reset themselves or “consolidate” for a little while longer before we’ll see the upside leverage return. On the hourly chart, GDXJ is a buy/sell the rally. On the daily chart it is a sell/buy the dip. The most powerful moves happen when both charts are a buy/buy the dip. For a good look at an example of such a setup, look at the moves that peaked on the 6th, 13th, and 21st.
K matt,
thanks..+1
Oil is looking like it will breakout to the 46+ area. XOP starting to move up.
Major breakout coming in brent oil. It is above 50. We could see 50 in 2 or 3 days for WTI.
Looks like it but I think the people in this area are looking towards the shoulder season and where the price will be on average over the year. IMHO the price will rebound but we will get one more washout on the chart, but the RSI will not make a new low. Best guess from me is we average in the $50s this year. The chart seems to like $75, $65, $55 and $45.
In my opinion, the supply destruction will send oil to $120 next year.
Wow. I have not heard that. Baker Hughes drops 95 rigs. Most since 1987.
Everybody is cutting in Alberta. No drilling, no projects. Even US rig count starts dropping quickly. With shale, you have to drill, drill, drill. Dan, you probably heard the lay offs, service companies cut the most. More to come if the price does not rise to 80. I hope devaluation of Canadian dollar saves us.
Maybe the speed of the cut backs are not priced in yet.
Quite possible but i think we would need some form of qe before it happens. Just my humble opinion.
Lawrence at this point devaluation of loonie would have to break that 77/78 major resistance. If 77.018 i believe is taken out then we will target much lower. Maybe 6 months from now today ends up being right shoulder of inverted h&S formation on a 10 year chart.
Paul,
Careful what you wish for. Although previous pass does not always imply present, we must not discount ability of wti to move 5-8 points in any direction with this volatility. It would be nice and picture perfect if wti put it’s bottom here and up we go and all is rosy.
I caution..Very possible this is a temporary bottom to only come back later to break new lows.
35-40 wti Oil
CRB 210 at the minimum
Those remain my targets.
loonie has not bottomed IMHO..
GOLD- TO THE MOON
Now drop the price so I can get some lower price mining stocks.
+1 😮
Hope everyone is well,
Last week, I said that I had not cut any position in the previous days (I think I had mentioned exactly “for the past week” -> sure Matthew has this copy/pasted somewhere 🙂 )
Just to be on the record, today I seriously trimmed 1 position in my portfolio (which has about 25-30 lines) as I feel the chart/technicals are getting a bit extended. Beside, it’s been a nice return for me in a short span, so I’m taking some profit on the name.
Nothing wrong with the company so the idea is to add on a pullback.
Best to all, and GL investing/trading.
LPG
Sorry, LPG, I do not have a copy of that, hope you’ll let it slide this time. 😮
I have also seriously trimmed a position or two, one by 95% as of today, but I have been a buyer of others.
Best & GL,
M
Hello Matthew,
Looking at potentially some more trims on other names based on charts, and looking to add to some positions too – as mentioned last week, I have some orders in place…
Best to you, have a good WE, and GL to all investing/trading.
LPG
LPG,
Wise IMO…Trimming the tree is always good. Averaging in is also good.
Best to you as well..
P.S I remember you saying you sold you puts or calls can’t remember but that you did not sell shares. I clearly remember. As of today, seems you trimmed shares?
Cheers
Have a nice weekend.
Hello again Glenfidish,
You’re right on all counts.
I sold all my GLD and SLV Jan 2016 Calls a few days ago (a process completed on Friday last week).
Today, I trimmed 2 positions.
I had mentioned in the post to Matthew (see above on this page) that I trimmed one position seriously, and I slightly trimmed another one afterwards (I had indicated in the post that I was [quote] “looking at potentially some more trims on other names” ).
Reason for trimming was technical on both cases.
Compared to where I was standing last week in my comments, I took the opportunity that both names were priced HIGHER than last week to book some profit.
I also realized we have an upcoming week-end, and there is a lot of whipsaw these days. So if some of my stocks in my portfolio look a bit stretched technically, and I can book nice profits, I play safe.
Beside, I want to really focus on intraday trading next week, so I wanted to get these small portfolio adjustments done ahead of the week-end – which the market was very kind to allow me to do at higher prices.
As a final note on the topic, I still like these 2 names fundamentally and plan to add on pull-backs (“hope” is not a strategy, but I hope there will be pullbacks). I also note that I have a bunch of buy orders in place at lower levels for a bunch of stocks (this is unchanged from my comment last week on Friday).
*********
As an aside and FWIW, I will also LIKELY reduce a little bit the number of positions in my portfolio, (currently standing at 25, I just checked), and I might remove a few positions to keep really what I consider are the strongest names (strongest on a fundamental basis).
As mentioned in several posts esp. with “Richard-Doc”, I really feel that going forward, the lemons will be separated from the apples, so again, I will try to focus my capital and time and effort on what I believe are the best names. And just to touch on the 2 names I mentioned in the past, PVG and FSM, these are part of the core of names I want to keep.
**********
Hope all’s clear and that everyone has been “safe” over the past few days.
For those of us confused by the market action recently (either on the conventional markets or in the PM/Resource space), keep in mind that in these circumstances, being out of the market is not necessarily a bad thing. Sometimes, the best thing to do… is to do nothing (i.e: being long cash).
Situations once in a while occur where I don’t understand right away what is going on. And when I don’t understand, I raise cash. (this is on top of the fact that often I think I understand what’s going on, but in fact I don’t and I’m just a fool 🙂 🙂 🙂 )
Finally, given the market whipsaws, I’ll end-up with one of my “cherished” angles:
(1) the importance of having a plan,
(2) the importance of having a plan for after the first plan is executed
-> this will remove a lot of the emotions out of the investment process
Best to you Glenfidish, and GL to all investing/trading + all have a good WE.
LPG
Oil and gold is the place to be. It is race between the two. My xop postion is sharply higher and I will not sell today.
I think oil and gold will diverge at this point with gold falling and crude on the rise. It was due for a bounce and it is about to happen now. Bigger picture it probably falls lower although nothing is etched in stone on that count.
XOP has popped as much as 8.5% since my best fill yesterday.
Keep buying miners folks. Looks good on the weekly and monthly charts. We are gunna run a ways.
FYI, shanghai exchange withdraw 71 tons in a week. 202 tons year to date. Due to the nature of the exchange, This also equals official consumption.
http://news.goldseek.com/GoldSeek/1422639836.php
Lawrence……thanks for the info………………….j.
Russian and China dutifully buy gold. The speed is not enough to crack the Ponzi scheme but enough to drain the vault of the US and UK. This is more like war strategy not financial strategy. I think they knows very well what is happening. Everyone thinks Russia is going to sell gold and no, it is not happening.
ditto…………I think you are exactly correct…………….PUTIN is a HARD LINER. and knows exactly what is happening……………I also, think INDIA is another part of the puzzle.
I believe India had to submit to West pressure due to the financial attacks on their currency and market. If BRIC wins, India will fall to this side. India has a great relationship with Russia. India is taking hugh amount of silver away now.
Indian Govt might have to , but, the people have shown they will not……….
There is a new group arising……..and the cast system.. is going to be over thrown, LOW AS DIRT is not going to cut it anymore……….The people are starting to have money….and the new generation is rising……………jmho.
The cast system has to go before India can make real progress. Don’t understand that system. Why don’t people revolt? They have more people than the rest.
Gary,
Thanks for commentary..
What is the duration of daily cycle lows? How long is typical for daily cycle lows?
3 days?
5 days?
12 days?